David Dodds
Administrator
After 32 hours of hell in front of my computer, our projections are ready for consumption:
2003 Projections
2003 Projections
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There's nobody else in Chicago to throw to.Why the love for Marty Booker?
Burress #6Ward #7Maddox #18That was a heavy topic of discussion when the rankings came out in early May.Could someone please post at least a partial list?
What is cool is that you can see how I got there by looking at the team view too.Burress #6Ward #7Maddox #18
Don't see him on the TE projections. I agree that he's either boom or bust, but I'm thinking boom. Guess y'all are thinking bust.I think the Whitten thing will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Hearing there's a lot of growing up to do for Mr. Whitten who thinks he's Shockey Jr. I think he'll either be real good or a total bust this season. Parcells will have fun with this one.J
What about Dez???There's nobody else in Chicago to throw to.
We are going to need to see more in training camp but we are intrigued and will be watching this closely.I think the Whitten thing will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Hearing there's a lot of growing up to do for Mr. Whitten who thinks he's Shockey Jr. I think he'll either be real good or a total bust this season. Parcells will have fun with this one.
Don't want to put words in Dodds' mouth but probably because at this point, he's assuming the majority of QBs play all 16 games for their teams; so Team TD Passes = QB TD Passes at this go around. From that perspective, it's not very far off base:Numbers of Teams with 20+ TD PassesWhy are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Depends on how you look at it...Criticism != Complain
Probably because injuries are not predicted. Last year, there were 22 QBs who were on pace for 20+ TDs had they played a full season (by my quick count).Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Amount of QBs that throw for 4000+ yards (by season):2002 -- 4And only 1 breaks 4000 yards
Since this averages about 10 players, which 10 do you think will ONLY make this list? I will take it one step further. I am willing to bet a $1,000 after you name your 10, that I can name a player who will throw for 20 TDs this year.You name your 10 that will do it.Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Amount of QBs to throw 20+ touchdowns (by season):
2002 -- 12
2001 -- 10
2000 -- 11
1999 -- 9
1998 -- 13
1997 -- 9
1996 -- 7
1995 -- 12
1994 -- 8
1993 -- 4
Ok, i willSend the criticisms in - We can take them. Usually after this many hours on something I start to lose common sense on things. We will be tweaking these (and providing comments to the tweaks on a weekly basis from here going forward)
Fair enough. I think Maurile was talking about this same issue, using projections not to take a snapshot of the future, but to help group players into categories (like great, really good, good, pretty good, fair, bad, etc.) for draft day.My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers. And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.We have this debate every year Wade. Yes that is historically more than will happen every year. Just like we have predicted more 3,000 passers that will end the year with. But tell me how someone is suppose to predict Donovan McNabb not hrowing for 3,000 yards last year or Kurt Warner finishing below the Top 40 QB, etc. We factor some injury risk obviously and also the possibility of benching, but I think it would be crazy to try and figure out who gets hurt and who does not. Add up all of our passing TDs and passing yards and they jive with what the NFL will do. If someone has a way to predict McNabb scenarios I would like to hear it?
No, I don't want to debate AVT in this thread. (Had enough of that yesterday.) I'm very interested in projections, is all, and I'm trying to discover a way to project without over-projecting. It is very difficult, and I wanted to learn your thought process, David, as much as I wanted to pick a fight with you.I am guessing Wade you want to turn this into an AVT vs VBD argument, but frankly I think AVT is much more flawed that trying to predict actual numbers. Yes individual QB numbers will be inflated in projections, but will be accurate from a per game perspective. And that's how we believe people should draft these players.
Actually I know they won't all play all the games. QBs getting hit by 6' 8" people are going to go down every year. I am just asking how does one predict that?I stand by the logic to draft QBs (using VBD) as if QBs are going to play the majority of the season (unless it looks like QBBC). I am going to rank McNabb on him playing close to afull season and not the 10 games he played last year. I do that because people draft multiple QBs on their fantasy teams. If they lose a QB for a few games, they plug something in until the starter is back again. The per game fantasy value is most relevant.Don't want to put words in Dodds' mouth but probably because at this point, he's assuming the majority of QBs play all 16 games for their teams; so Team TD Passes = QB TD Passes at this go around. From that perspective, it's not very far off base:Numbers of Teams with 20+ TD PassesWhy are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
2002 - 19
2001 - 14
2000 - 16
1999 - 18
1998 - 17
Average - 16.8CHEERS!
Team passing TDs are not over-projected. Some individual starting QBs' TDs are over-projected and backup QBs' TDs are underprojected -- but which ones? For instance, Kordell Stewart's passing TDs were over-projected last year, but that didn't affect Ward's or Burress's TD totals because Maddox picked up the slack. Also, Jim Miller's, Donovan McNabb's, Jay Fiedler's, and Brian Griese's TDs were all over-projected. But their teams' TDs weren't.My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers. And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.
Hold on, there.Since this averages about 10 players, which 10 do you think will ONLY make this list? I will take it one step further. I am willing to bet a $1,000 after you name your 10, that I can name a player who will throw for 20 TDs this year.You name your 10 that will do it.I will name 1 player that you missed. If my player throws for 20 TDs I win and you owe me a thousand dollars. If my player fails to throw for 20 TDs, you win and I will pay you a thousand dollars.
This is where you are wrong. It does not affect the numbers because the numbers correlate with production in the NFL. Add up all of our passing TDs and they match what the NFL will do. That is the same with yards, etc. You have to look at the whole poulation of players and make things add up to what the league will do. These projections do that. They overinflate starting QB production because it is very hard to predict a backup's production since by definition a lot of times that production happens due to injury. We have counted that production. It is just put against the starter for reasons I stated before.Fair enough. I think Maurile was talking about this same issue, using projections not to take a snapshot of the future, but to help group players into categories (like great, really good, good, pretty good, fair, bad, etc.) for draft day.My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers. And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.
No, I don't want to debate AVT in this thread. (Had enough of that yesterday.) I'm very interested in projections, is all, and I'm trying to discover a way to project without over-projecting. It is very difficult, and I wanted to learn your thought process, David, as much as I wanted to pick a fight with you.I am guessing Wade you want to turn this into an AVT vs VBD argument, but frankly I think AVT is much more flawed that trying to predict actual numbers. Yes individual QB numbers will be inflated in projections, but will be accurate from a per game perspective. And that's how we believe people should draft these players.![]()
Now that's one serious haircut!Seriously, great work & thanks!After 32 hours of shear hell,