Projections / value question (1 Viewer)

[-OZ-]

For those who do projections, once you have them, how do you rank amongst those with similar projections?

Is it the relative safety of the player? For example, if you project Hines Ward and Reggie Brown to both have 80 receptions, 1200 yards and 8 TDs, but you feel more comfortable with Hines, does he automatically go higher? If you feel Brown has a better chance to exceed those stats?

Is it consistancy? There's mention that a player like Matt Jones might have a nice year, but could have a few great games and other games where he disapears. If you think he'll end up with the same stats as David Givens, but Givens will be a lot more consistent, which is higher?

Is it just bye weeks?

Coaching / supporting cast?

Potential to have a better week 12-17?

Other?

 

[Sopranos]

Consitancy is very important to me. I like proven players. Ward is a safe player. You know you can count on him. Injuries have an effect also but i look at the players body of work. Like with Boldin,it doesnt bother me..ton of upside. I always lower players that chance teams. its just an unknown..I take everything in to account,team offense,QB,team D,the teams track record with WR stats..if i dont feel comfortable playing that player everyweek i wont draft him till late. I would pick Kennison or Mi Clayton. Eddie i feel safe. Mike has more upside sure but to me he is still alittle risky.. Good question BTW

 

[JayMan]

When doing projections/rankings... I think you need to look for a floor/ceiling for everyone... and you go from there...

Then consistency comes in play... for 2 RBs with similar floor/ceiling (say 800/5 to 1200/9) - for your starter: you are looking for the one that will produce week in/week out... for your bench: you look for the guy that will go 155/2 against the poorest of the defenses...

And when draft comes around - depending on the depth of your team/position - you draft accordingly... go for a low floor if you don't have much depth (consistency) and for a high ceiling if you have depth there (potential)...

My 2 cents...

 

[GregR_2]

For those who do projections, once you have them, how do you rank amongst those with similar projections?

It would come down to pretty much everything else that couldn't go into that final single number for them.All their net upside and downside. Chance a guy breaks out. Risk of losing his job to his backup. Existing injury concerns. Dependence on other guys on his team (i.e. Eagles WRs depend on McNabb for success more than Owens depends on his QB). Uncertainty the team will run their offense the way you expect, uncertainty in the distribution of carries, etc.Then there are also the bye week and draft decisions. If you have a WR with an overall ADP of 65 projected even with a WR of an ADP of 45, if you are definitely going WR in the 4th you should probably take the 45 ADP guy, all other things equal, as the other may still be there in 2 rounds and provide good value then.I don't sweat a few fantasy points on the year difference. If I feel better about one player than another who are projected close, for all the sorts of reasons above, I'd take him first. But I probably won't take a guy I projected at 2 FPG less (32 points on the year) unless one has tremendous upside and the other tremendous downside.

 

[pigskinliquors]

If I project them evenly, and there aren't any glaring red flags associated with that person (i.e., injury history, or attitude problems), I leave them in the same tier, and try to get the person in that tier, as late as I can in the draft (i.e., if five people have the same relative projection = in the same tier, I would much prefer to have the 5th/last one in that tier off the board, as that person offers me the best potential for value).

my .02