Projections (1 Viewer)

[Badm]

Couple of questions about this weeks projections, looking at todays updates:

I read everywhere on Wed that McRath (LB Tenn) was starting and haven't read anything since that disputes that.

FBG projects zero points from him this week. He isn't good for even 1 tackle?

Again on Wed, I read Dajuan Morgan (SS Indy) was going to start this week and haven't read anything since that disputes that.

FBG doesn't even have him in the list for DBs.

Once again Eric Berry (SS KC) is listed as a top 10 DB this week. I'm curious as to the logic of this? He has had 1 decent week this year, even though he has been ranked top 10 each week. Why the confidence still in him considering he hasn't shown much in 2 out of 3 weeks?

 

[LittlePhatty]

It's tough to project offense, but IDP is even harder.

Go with your gut + past performance this season, instead of projections. Rankings are slow to change from pre-season favorites to the players who are actually putting up numbers. Take James Anderson (CAR), who is still listed as LB27 on FBG's "going forward" chart, while Jon Beason (CAR) is still 12 spots ahead of him, despite on-field performance.

As for McRath, he was suspended without team contact for 4 weeks and he will be playing with on one week of practice. All Jeff Fisher can say is:

"I would expect him to play. I don’t know how much, but I expect him to play."

Link

 

[John Norton]

Couple of questions about this weeks projections, looking at todays updates:I read everywhere on Wed that McRath (LB Tenn) was starting and haven't read anything since that disputes that.FBG projects zero points from him this week. He isn't good for even 1 tackle? Again on Wed, I read Dajuan Morgan (SS Indy) was going to start this week and haven't read anything since that disputes that. FBG doesn't even have him in the list for DBs. Once again Eric Berry (SS KC) is listed as a top 10 DB this week. I'm curious as to the logic of this? He has had 1 decent week this year, even though he has been ranked top 10 each week. Why the confidence still in him considering he hasn't shown much in 2 out of 3 weeks?

I'm not sure what makes you think McRath will be starting this week. It’s not even a give that he will be starting in a month (though I would be surprised if he were not). Phatty made reference to one report and this little blurb is also out there. (Rotoworld) With LB Gerald McRath off suspension, Titans coach Jeff Fisher indicated Monday that McRath won't immediately be installed as a starter. When I am sure there is a reason to project him I will certainly do so but it would not surprise me if he worked only on special teams this week. He is no Brian Cushing afterall I projected Morgan at 4-1 for this week but after your comments here I found a typo that caused him to not show up. That has been fixed and thanks for the heads up. He may out perform those numbers but has never been the least bit impressive in the past and according to late week reports they are considering other options as well and he is not a lock to start or to play full time if he does. This was reported on Thursday: Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said he is unsure who will replace SS Melvin Bullitt (shoulder) in the starting lineup, according to Phillip B. Wilson, of The Indianapolis Star. CB Brandon King, SS DaJuan Morgan, SS Aaron Francisco and CB Mike Newton are all candidates. 'We'll find out as the week goes on,' Caldwell said. 'They have an opportunity, we'll work 'em, and we'll see who emerges.' As for projecting Berry highly, he has posted a respectable 5 or more solo stops in 2 of 3 starts and the Chiefs have yet to play a team that was hitting on all cylinders offensively. That will change when they face the Colts this week. Take a look at what some other quality safeties have done versus Indy thus far, Pollard 8-1 with a FF, Antrel Rolle 7-1, Brian Dawkins and Darcel McBath combined to go 8-1 (Dawkins was injured and McBath replaced him) and even Anthony Smith managed a solid 5-1 with a pick. When it comes to ranking/projecting defensive backs, big plays are very difficult to account for and always skew the final numbers for the week. With that in mind, Berry may not finish in the top 10 but the ranking reflects my confidence that he will be productive with this match up.

 

[John Norton]

It's tough to project offense, but IDP is even harder.

Go with your gut + past performance this season, instead of projections. Rankings are slow to change from pre-season favorites to the players who are actually putting up numbers. Take James Anderson (CAR), who is still listed as LB27 on FBG's "going forward" chart, while Jon Beason (CAR) is still 12 spots ahead of him, despite on-field performance.

As for McRath, he was suspended without team contact for 4 weeks and he will be playing with on one week of practice. All Jeff Fisher can say is:

Link

I am not doing the foreword numbers this year but will pass your comments along to Ryan Sitzmann who is handling that for us. I will say however, that I agree with what you are saying. We are sometimes slow to come around on certain players for a number of reasons. That is just the nature of what we do. When you are projecting well over 500 players each week it is very easy for a handful of guys to slip through the cracks early in the season and it is natural to stick with and/or over project guys that had great expectations or are personal favorites. While we strive to keep an objective opinion on every player and an eye on every situation, it is often customers like you and comments like yours that help us tie up some of these loose ends as the season progresses. The thousands of extra eyes that our very knowledgeable customer base provides, serves as a checks and balance for us at times. In an ever changing landscape your comments will often cause us to reconsider our position on a player or at the least take a closer look. We appreciate you as customers and appreciate your constructive criticism. All we ask is that everyone please keep the comments positive. The way we look at it here, it is all one big team effort and chemistry helps everyone. Thank you,

 

[John Norton]

Gerald McRath expected to work with starters Sat Oct 9, 01:51 PM

Tennessee Titans LB Gerald McRath is expected to work with the first-team defense in Week 5, reports The Tennessean's Jim Wyatt. McRath has not played this season because he was serving a four-game suspension.

And there you go. Posted Saturday afternoon and he will be in tonight's update.

 

[Badm]

Mr. Norton,

Really appreciate the follow up. I should have posted the link on McRatch from Wed, but no worries.

Running out of time to do anything this weekend and couldn't find the link but I'm pretty sure I saw it on the Titans Message Board.

Thanks again for the follow up.

 

[LittlePhatty]

When you are projecting well over 500 players each week it is very easy for a handful of guys to slip through the cracks early in the season and it is natural to stick with and/or over project guys that had great expectations or are personal favorites.

Oh, absolutely, it's tough. I'm not trying to call anyone out really. With players like Jon Beason and Patrick Willis it is extremely tough to bump them down the charts because you just know they have the talent and they could turn things around at any moment and start producing like they should.In redraft, Week 5 is right around the time I start going with the guys who have strung together at least 3 solid games, and I consider dumping the under-performing guys no matter what the pre-season rankings were. I really think IDP production follows the "hot streak" more than offensive positions.

 

[Gary Davenport]

It's tough to project offense, but IDP is even harder.

Go with your gut + past performance this season, instead of projections. Rankings are slow to change from pre-season favorites to the players who are actually putting up numbers. Take James Anderson (CAR), who is still listed as LB27 on FBG's "going forward" chart, while Jon Beason (CAR) is still 12 spots ahead of him, despite on-field performance.

As for McRath, he was suspended without team contact for 4 weeks and he will be playing with on one week of practice. All Jeff Fisher can say is:

Link

I am not doing the foreword numbers this year but will pass your comments along to Ryan Sitzmann who is handling that for us. I will say however, that I agree with what you are saying. We are sometimes slow to come around on certain players for a number of reasons. That is just the nature of what we do. When you are projecting well over 500 players each week it is very easy for a handful of guys to slip through the cracks early in the season and it is natural to stick with and/or over project guys that had great expectations or are personal favorites. While we strive to keep an objective opinion on every player and an eye on every situation, it is often customers like you and comments like yours that help us tie up some of these loose ends as the season progresses. The thousands of extra eyes that our very knowledgeable customer base provides, serves as a checks and balance for us at times. In an ever changing landscape your comments will often cause us to reconsider our position on a player or at the least take a closer look. We appreciate you as customers and appreciate your constructive criticism. All we ask is that everyone please keep the comments positive. The way we look at it here, it is all one big team effort and chemistry helps everyone. Thank you,

There's a fine line in IDP between "coming around" on guys that aren't getting it done and jumping the gun before they do, and my ears would bleed if I tried to rank as many guys as y'all do (just going as deep as I go gives me a helluva headache most weeks).Keep up the fantastic work.

 

[Ryan Sitzmann]

Sorry for my delayed response in answering your inquiry. These IDP Forward Projections are quite time-consuming and I'm still getting use to handling the workload . I completely agree with you that Anderson needed to be moved up (that's reflected in this week's forward rankings). I still think Beason has more value than Anderson the rest of the year. Carolina continues to run a decent amount of cover-2 and he should see plenty of tackle opportunities moving forward. Additionally, you always have the concern that Thomas Davis may return near the end of the season and steal tackles away from Anderson.

Thanks for pointing this out though. I really do appreciate it. You guys (i.e. the subscribers) do a great job of "double-checking" my work to make sure there are no glaring omissions, mistakes, etc. This is a huge reason why the FBG community and content is the best on the planet. As John mentioned, when you are ranking 500+ players, a few of them slip through the cracks .

Feel free to leave future comments on these projections. I am always open to hearing someone else's viewpoint.

 

[Chigurh]

I think the work you guys do on IDP is the best in the business and is the reason I subscribe. I wasn't planning on subscribing to FBG this year because I'm only in one IDP league (and I'm broke), but I've been lost this season without your IDP advice. So I shelled out the cash.

I'm having trouble finding your IDP going forward rankings. If I go to week 5, can I find them in there?

 

[Ryan Sitzmann]

I think the work you guys do on IDP is the best in the business and is the reason I subscribe. I wasn't planning on subscribing to FBG this year because I'm only in one IDP league (and I'm broke), but I've been lost this season without your IDP advice. So I shelled out the cash. I'm having trouble finding your IDP going forward rankings. If I go to week 5, can I find them in there?

I was also having trouble finding the IDP "Going Forward" rankings. So I contacted our database guru Doug Drinen (via John Norton) and inquired about the situation. Here is what he said, "If you create a profile in MyFBG that includes IDPs, then the IDP will show up in the Custom Top 250. If you select "Standard League", though, the IDPs don't show up because a "Standard League" starts no IDPs."The IDP staff along with Doug are creating a new profile that will include IDPs so when you click on the drop-down menu you can select that option if you want IDPs include in the projections. I would assume this issue should be corrected shortly. I will keep you updated and let you know when I find out more.

 

[Ryan Sitzmann]

The issue with the IDP projections not showing up in the Top 250+ Forward Projections has now been corrected. If you want to view the IDP Forward Projections for IDPs then you just select "Standard IDP" for the scoring system. The defensive players aren't breaking out by specific position yet (e.g. just displaying DTs and not DEs), but I have a note into Doug Drinen to correct this issue. Thanks for your understanding.

 

[Chigurh]

Great! Thanks.

 

[Badm]

John,

I was wondering if there was a good way to discuss projections on a weekly basis in the forum. I really appreciate the effort and quality of what you guys put together, but I believe there is alot of value in the discussion points for individual projections that folks may or may not agree with.

I would hope it wouldn't turn into a rip fest, but it seems to me the projections are a good start for discussions on how people think players will perform. In the past, I have been reluctant to start threads on it, only because the basis is the initial projections which is subscriber material. I think I came off a little strong in the OP, but the information and discussion that was a result was really good stuff. Just curious as to your thoughts.

 

[Jene Bramel]

John,I was wondering if there was a good way to discuss projections on a weekly basis in the forum. I really appreciate the effort and quality of what you guys put together, but I believe there is alot of value in the discussion points for individual projections that folks may or may not agree with. I would hope it wouldn't turn into a rip fest, but it seems to me the projections are a good start for discussions on how people think players will perform. In the past, I have been reluctant to start threads on it, only because the basis is the initial projections which is subscriber material. I think I came off a little strong in the OP, but the information and discussion that was a result was really good stuff. Just curious as to your thoughts.

John and I have discussed a Friday feature like this for a couple of seasons now but just haven't had the time to get it on the schedule yet. John's time has been limited this year unfortunately, but I'll make sure he sees the thread. I think a little compare and contrast each week would be fine. As long as we're not discussing huge chunks of content, there should be no problem.