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Proposed: rookie Reggie Bush is to Deuce McAllister (2006) as ... (1 Viewer)

Doug B

Doug B

Footballguy
There's not much uncovered ground on Bush's level of talent and his potential. However, there seems to be some room to hash out his role in 2006.

I see a lot of people here who are quite certain the presence of Deuce McAllister will keep Bush from putting up legit fantasy RB1 numbers. But as a Saints fan, with what I've been seeing of Deuce since 2003 ... to me, he seems to be pretty much physically done. He wasn't the same back in 2004 as he was in 2003 ... and then the injuries bit even harder last year.

I think Bush shakes out as the clear main back for the Saints by opening day. Deuce would come in here and there to serve as a change of pace ... maybe some short-yardage work, as well.

But even if Deuce does start the season as the starting tailback, his health has been so poor the last few years that I can't help but think he'll be reduced to a secondary role within 4 or 5 games. Deuce is perhaps OK for a role like what Marcus Allen and Jerome Bettis had late in their careers ... but to me, even that much is his topmost upside. I'm a big Deuce fan, and I gratefully tip my hat to him for how he's handled himself in New Orleans -- I just can't see that his body's up to the challenge anymore. Remember how it seemed like Barry Foster and Natrone Means just kind of fell off the face of the earth all of a sudden? That's where it seems to me Deuce is at in his career.

It reminds me a lot of when Fred Taylor was a rookie. People were certain that James Stewart's presence would limit Taylor's opportunities that year. Whoops.

I'm wondering if other Saints fans are seeing it like I'm seeing it ... and if there are others out there who really aren't seeing Deuce as an obstacle to Bush producing fantasy RB1 numbers in 2006.

 
Keys Myaths said:
Interesting analysis here.
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Well, man, I'm just giving my impressions from watching this team year in and year out . Perhaps there's some reverse-homerism going on in my head, having been disappointed by Deuce's injuries (not in him personally).Still in all ... I'm not one that believes every fantasy football question can be resolved by throwing stats at the problem -- especially when you're trying to predict something as specific as roles of these two RBs playing under a first-year head coach. We don't have a lot of figures to go on here.

Colin points out that Stewart got hurt in 1998. He's right. I know a lot of people hate to predict injuries, but ... well, you guys can fill in the blanks about what I'm thinking at this point. I still regard 2006 McAllister as comparable to 1998 Stewart. McAllister will play through a lot of pain -- he's pretty tough -- but he won't play well nicked up. He'll try to bring it, but struggle. That's when Bush would decisively seize his chance.

 
If Deuce starts off the season like Stewart did in 98, putting up 300 total yards and 3 TDs in the first two games, people who took Bush in the 2nd round will be unloading him for pennies on the dollar.

 
Colin Dowling said:
If Deuce starts off the season like Stewart did in 98, putting up 300 total yards and 3 TDs in the first two games, people who took Bush in the 2nd round will be unloading him for pennies on the dollar.
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CD, the biggest difference is that Bush and McAllister will be on the field together (most likely) a lot of the time, too.Bush is a MUCH different type of player than Fred Taylor. He'll get his touches no matter what Deuce does.
 
I don't dispute that Bush will get his touches. I'm just responding to the comparison to Jacksonville.

I actually think that the situation will be a bit like "thunder and lightning" of the Giants but in reverse as the quick, pass-catching back has just come on the scene.

Barber - 213 / 1006 / 8 and 70 / 719 / 1

Dayne - 228 / 770 / 5

I think people forget too easily that Deuce has shown his merit as a pass-catcher as well. I think that it's reasonable to predict 450 carries and 1800-ish yards on the ground and 90-100 receptions and another 1000 yards in the air. Make it 15-18 TDs between the two of them, by my guess.

As I said, much more similar to the 2000 NYGiants, IMO, then the 1998 Jags.

 
Keys Myaths said:
CD, the biggest difference is that Bush and McAllister will be on the field together (most likely) a lot of the time, too.
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I'm not convinced of this at all -- here and there, but not "a lot of the time". Hopefully, Deuce will get at least a little preseason action that will help clarify how the two will be used.I know it was a different regime ... but people used to talk about Ricky Williams and Deuce being used together in the backfield going into 2001. Instead, Deuce barely played when Ricky was healthy.
 
I think having McAllister on the field is actually very positive for Bush. The Saints can run 2 RB sets and put Bush in motion out of the backfield. He's going to get some touches no matter what McAllister does running the ball. I like Bush very much in PPR scoring and see him take on a Brian Westbrook type of role this year.

I actually think it will be better for Bush to have McAllister on the field at times as well. It will create defensive mismatches if Bush can get lined up on a LB in a play action situation. The defense will not be able to key on him as D-Mac will present a legit threat running the ball.

 
Colin Dowling said:
As I said, much more similar to the 2000 NYGiants, IMO, then the 1998 Jags.
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The comparison to the 98 Jags was based largely on expectations going into the season. Few figured on Taylor being a top-3 fantasy RB as a rookie ... but he did.Now then -- admittedly, one more domino would have to fall for the comparison to be perfect: Deuce would have to get hurt.
 
Colin Dowling said:
I see your point, but your example is poor - Stewart got hurt that year and in the 2 games he played, he was AWESOME.
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Stewart| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 chi | 26 115 | 22 | 2 || 2 kan | 26 103 | 22 | 1Taylor| 1 chi | 1 2 | 0 | 0 || 2 kan | 6 44 | 0 | 0 |
 
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TwinTurbo said:
I think having McAllister on the field is actually very positive for Bush. The Saints can run 2 RB sets and put Bush in motion out of the backfield. He's going to get some touches no matter what McAllister does running the ball. I like Bush very much in PPR scoring and see him take on a Brian Westbrook type of role this year.I actually think it will be better for Bush to have McAllister on the field at times as well. It will create defensive mismatches if Bush can get lined up on a LB in a play action situation. The defense will not be able to key on him as D-Mac will present a legit threat running the ball.
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I'm trying to come up with recent examples of a team using two tailbacks at the same time as a common offensive set. Didn't the 2000 Giants usually use Barber and Dayne on separate downs?Mike Karney will be back there for the Saints at FB for a lot of sets, but that's not two tailbacks.
 
Doug B said:
The comparison to the 98 Jags was based largely on expectations going into the season. Few figured on Taylor being a top-3 fantasy RB as a rookie ... but he did.
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:confused: People are now talking about taking Bush in the first round for full redrafts (see other threads). The situation is in no way similar to Taylor's 1998 rookie year from a fantasy perspective.

You know what the best thing about that 98 rookie season for Taylor was? When I drafted him in the 6th round (I also followed up with Robert Edwards a few rounds later - it was a very good year). Think on that a moment. You know who looks much more like Taylor/Edwards to me right now from a FF perspective? Maroney.

When Bush isn't playing every down, Drew Brees returns to being a below average QB because he won't get enough time to throw (which is the only way he can be effective), the sub par offensive line doesn't open up USC vs. PAC10 defense size holes, and Bush isn't getting short yardage/goalline looks (because he's not good at it), people are going to feel bad about spending one of their top couple of picks on him - especally if you don't get kick/punt return yards. Meanwhile I'll be picking up a sweet sweet bargain that someone left on the table as a result at the end of round two. So please, continue the madness.

:thumbup:

 
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What is Deuce's contract like, long term? IIRC, he signed an extension 2 years ago. Is he able to be moved/cut without serious cap ramifications if it comes to pass that Bush is the cat's meow and the team needs to free up money to improve in other spots?

 
Colin Dowling said:
What is Deuce's contract like, long term? IIRC, he signed an extension 2 years ago. Is he able to be moved/cut without serious cap ramifications if it comes to pass that Bush is the cat's meow and the team needs to free up money to improve in other spots?
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Details of Deuce's contract:
ESPN.com's John Clayton reports that McAllister's new deal is eight years, $50.1 million, including $12.5 million in signing and option bonuses. The contract includes $3.1 million in escalators that McAllister can achieve in the third year based on performance to push the total to $53.2 million.
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That $12.5 million was not the signing bonus alone ... there are some down-the-road roster bonuses included in that, too (some details in the link).
 
Doug B said:
I see a lot of people here who are quite certain the presence of Deuce McAllister will keep Bush from putting up legit fantasy RB1 numbers. But as a Saints fan, with what I've been seeing of Deuce since 2003 ... to me, he seems to be pretty much physically done. He wasn't the same back in 2004 as he was in 2003 ... and then the injuries bit even harder last year.
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I'm a Saints fan and totally agree with this. It amazes me how sure a lot of people are that Deuce will get 300+ touches. He hasn't been the same since '03 and his running style will just get him hurt again. I think it's far more likely Bush rather than McAllister gets 300+ touches.
 
Colin Dowling said:
that doesn't seem like a very trade-able extension to me...
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The salary cap has gone up a lot since last summer ... and another big bump is coming next offseason. Eating 7 or 8 million should be doable.Or else they hang on to him as a backup for another year.
 
valhallan said:
Doug B said:
I see a lot of people here who are quite certain the presence of Deuce McAllister will keep Bush from putting up legit fantasy RB1 numbers. But as a Saints fan, with what I've been seeing of Deuce since 2003 ... to me, he seems to be pretty much physically done. He wasn't the same back in 2004 as he was in 2003 ... and then the injuries bit even harder last year.
Click to expand...
I'm a Saints fan and totally agree with this. It amazes me how sure a lot of people are that Deuce will get 300+ touches. He hasn't been the same since '03 and his running style will just get him hurt again. I think it's far more likely Bush rather than McAllister gets 300+ touches.
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:goodposting: Bush is a beast. He will not ride the pine regardless of how healthy Deuce is. I have mixed feelings about him in non-PPR leagues, but he should be gold right out of the gate in PPR. Keep in mind that Brian Westbrook has been a top 5-7 RB in PPR leagues over the past two seasons. Catches are immensely important. Also, Bush tends to break at least one big play every game. He may not be facing "swiss cheese Pac-10 defenses" anymore, but he'll still be one of the two or three fastes/quickest players on the field at all time. Just watching his few runs against the Titans, you can see that his speed and quickness advantage is still evident even against professional competition.
 
Some people are definitely overrating the impact Duece McAllister will make, especially negatively towards Bush. If Edgerrin James can't top 1,000 yards and 3.6 YPC as the Feature Back in Indianapolis, coming off an ACL injury, how is Duece going to do? Not much I would suspect. He is the NFC equivalent of Fred Taylor, and he has probably the next Marshall Faulk on the team with him.

600 Yards Tops for McAllister.

 
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Here is a copy of a post I made on the player spotlight

There are a few red flags that should be raised about some projections.1.) The most that Deuce ever toted the rock was 351 times in 2003, an average of 21.9 carries a game, consisting of about 73% of total rushes and just under 91% of RB rushes. Now I'm seeing this 15-20 (carries per game) number bandied about a little liberally here and think to myself, the most he's ever averaged is 21.9 when he was healthy and had little to no competition (2nd leading rusher besided Brooks was Ki-Jana Carter) so how can he even fathom reaching 20 carries a game comming off a major surgery and with a young superstar nipping at his heels?2.) As for those who say that he could approach 15-20 later on in the season when he regains his health, his average touches/game fell off in 2004 (19.4) and was continuing to slide in 2005 (18.6) Along with that came his YPC on the decline with it and in in 2005 pre-injury, almost 40% of his rushing yardage came from one game. Out of the remaining four games, he broke 15 carries only once, and had YPC's of 2.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 2.8.3.) The Saints have never been a run-first team. Under Haslett, the rushes rank as follow (entire NFL) 22, 26, 11, 20, 20, 7 but in the two above-average years, QB's had 57 and 98 carries total out of 448 and 505 carries respectively. Do the math and you will realize that 400 touches for all RB's should be the absolute cap. Note that both Ricky Williams and Deuce McCalister were on the 505 (407 for RB's) carry team. So dont assume that the addition of Reggie Bush automatically pushes them over 400 to a great deal.4.) I honestly don't know much about Sean Payton but I do know that all of his QB's broke 3,000 yards and that he heavily favors the pass. Upon joining the eagles in 1997, the 96' birds ranked 9 in completions and 12th in pass attempts, in 97 they were 4th and 5th respectively. In 98 the Giants ranked 27th in attempts and 18th in completions, and (with Payton taking over the QB coach position) in 99, the eagles ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively. As Offensive Coordinator, despite a drop in 2000's stats, completions and attempts were back to 7th and 5th respectively in 2001. As QB coach for the Cowboys in 2004-5, both Vinny Testaverde had their 3rd best yardage campaign in their careers.
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So to cut it short, its easy to see Deuce will have a diminished role in the offense, and perhaps reggie bush will end up with the majority of touches- even if Deuce is completely healthy. Refer to point #2. He was ineffective as a runner in 2005 and behind pro-bowl guard LeCharles Bentley, and Mayberry. God knows wha t will happen behind this line but I have a feeling a more elusive back probably will do better. All I have to add is to temper your projections. Look at point #3. The Saints have not broken 400 combined RB touches at least since the early 90's- even with Deuce and Ricky Williams on the roster. If Deuce plays a good chunk of time healthy, then it would be shocking to see any of the two RB's crack 250 individual rushes. However, Bush will see his fair share of targets out wide.
 
I posted this in the "Is Reggie Bush a 1st rounder?" thread, but it seems to fit better in this thread. The comparison - Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott from the 1997 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Warrick Dunn

Rushing - 224 carries, 978 yards, 4.4 avg, 4 TDs

Receiving - 39 rec., 462 yards, 11.8 avg, 3 TDs

Fantasy points - 186

Rank - 13

Mike Alstott

Rushing - 176 carries, 665 yards, 3.8 avg, 7 TDs

Receiving - 23 rec., 178 yards, 7.7 avg, 3 TDs

Fantasy points - 144

Rank - 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10-6 record

Ranked 24 out of 30 in points scored (299)

This was Warrick Dunn's rookie year. I am not saying this is how things will shake out, but I think it could provide an interesting framework from where to start when discussing where Reggie Bush will fall in 2006. You can plug in Bush for Dunn, but I feel Bush may have a few fewer carries but a few more receptions. I also feel Bush's talent level is greater than Dunn. Then plug in Deuce for Alstott, although I feel Deuce will get a few more carries and have a slightly higher YPC. I feel Deuce's talent is greater than Alstott's, but we aren't sure yet if his knee injury from last year will affect him. When you look at the team, although TB probably will end up with a better team record, they only scored 299 points.

If Warrick Dunn can rank #13 among all RBs as a rookie (in non PPR, no less) splitting with Mike Alstott, I see no reason that Reggie Bush can't.

 
<thinking fantasy football>NO should trade Deuce to Denver or the Jets for one of their backup RBs and a pick. </thinking fantasy football>

 
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