Q about the overall rankings (1 Viewer)

[teke_218]

Alright so I'm looking at the rankings and Ronnie Brown and Rhudi Johnson are ranked ahead of Peyton Manning. I'm just wondering how to read these rankings. Let's say I am in a 2 man keeper league, and I own Peyton Manning, Rhudi Jonhson, and Tiki Barber. Common sense tells me to keep Tiki and Peyton, but do these overall rankings mean that I should drop Peyton? Just wondering.

Teke

 

[Spartans Rule]

Alright so I'm looking at the rankings and Ronnie Brown and Rhudi Johnson are ranked ahead of Peyton Manning. I'm just wondering how to read these rankings. Let's say I am in a 2 man keeper league, and I own Peyton Manning, Rhudi Jonhson, and Tiki Barber. Common sense tells me to keep Tiki and Peyton, but do these overall rankings mean that I should drop Peyton? Just wondering.

Teke

The rankings are one-year redraft league rankings for one specific scoring system. You really shouldn't just flat apply them to any other situation.For example, Manning's value in a keeper league comes more from year-to-year durability and consistency than it does from how many FPs he'll score this year. Don't drop him based on rankings that are out of context.

 

[teke_218]

Well, I would never flat out apply them to my league. The problem is that there are never rankings for a 2 man keeper league. It's just a little too rare I guess.

The thing is, I consider my league on the verge of folding every year (despite a strong group of owners). So, usually I'm only looking at this season.

That being said, I consider my two keepers as my first two picks. I don't think of what they might do next season. To put it plainly, I'm only looking at winning this season. So for this reason, I am wondering if the rankings are telling me that if I had the choice of drafting Ronnie Brown or Peyton Manning I should draft Brown.

Let me just say that I've read the VBDS article, I read it when it came out in Pro Football Forecast in 01. It blew my mind. But at some point, something needs to be said about risk. Who wants an absolutely unproven player who ranks 6-8 on the list of RBs over Peyton Manning (who just lost his RB and has a good possibility of beating his previous record).I'm not trying to argue here. I think that through a thoughtful discussion we can all learn a thing or two.

So what do you guys think?

 

[Musesboy]

Well, I would never flat out apply them to my league. The problem is that there are never rankings for a 2 man keeper league. It's just a little too rare I guess.

The thing is, I consider my league on the verge of folding every year (despite a strong group of owners). So, usually I'm only looking at this season.

That being said, I consider my two keepers as my first two picks. I don't think of what they might do next season. To put it plainly, I'm only looking at winning this season. So for this reason, I am wondering if the rankings are telling me that if I had the choice of drafting Ronnie Brown or Peyton Manning I should draft Brown.

Let me just say that I've read the VBDS article, I read it when it came out in Pro Football Forecast in 01. It blew my mind. But at some point, something needs to be said about risk. Who wants an absolutely unproven player who ranks 6-8 on the list of RBs over Peyton Manning (who just lost his RB and has a good possibility of beating his previous record).I'm not trying to argue here. I think that through a thoughtful discussion we can all learn a thing or two.

So what do you guys think?

RBs tend to get hurt more than the other skill positions. We have also seen quite a few have strong performances for part of their rookie season, and then fail to live up to the hype (W Green, A Thomas, K Jones, J Jones, to name a few). Brown is in a new situation in that he's carrying the full load for the first time. He might be a stud, but he might disappoint.Manning has never finished as the top fantasy QB but he has finished top four since his rookie season. With over half of the QBs getting injured or demoted last year, there is a lot to be said for a guy that has never missed a start. He takes so few sacks and doesn't get knocked around too much.

It's a matter of your attitude towards risk. I agree that Manning should do better this year. While a few have a chance to match or beat his production, they are much more risky options. If Brown does live up to the hype, he will have a much higher trade value and actual value than Manning.

As for the rankings; don't forget that the dynasty rankings will give the approximate keeper value of the players you are considering. You have to incorporate your own scoring system, but it sounds like you are the sort of person that would automatically do that.

 

[renesauz]

I can't imagine purposefully dropping Manning to keep Johnson. Many rankings would put Peyton higher. FBG puts a little bit higher premium on RB's then most other ranking sites.

In standard redraft, I would probably draft Johnson ahead of Manning, but I'd be second guessing myself the whole time. With Tiki already in the fold, you have a stud RB you can count on, so that should make the choice easy. Heck, you may even be able to draft an equivalent RB in the First round of your draft, but unless you have one of the first couple of picks, I doubt you'd re-aquire Manning.

Bottom line is that rankings are a guide...you have to view the big picture. Let's say you're in the fifth round of a redraft and a solid RB2 has slipped for some strange reason and is available. You look at your roster and you already have 2 solid starters, an equivalent RB2 and a stud QB (Manning/Palmer type). With no WR's on your roster do you take the RB just because he's the highest rated player on the board?

I wouldn't either.

 

[Bri]

Alright so I'm looking at the rankings and Ronnie Brown and Rhudi Johnson are ranked ahead of Peyton Manning. I'm just wondering how to read these rankings. Let's say I am in a 2 man keeper league, and I own Peyton Manning, Rhudi Jonhson, and Tiki Barber. Common sense tells me to keep Tiki and Peyton, but do these overall rankings mean that I should drop Peyton? Just wondering.

Teke

The rankings are one-year redraft league rankings for one specific scoring system. You really shouldn't just flat apply them to any other situation.For example, Manning's value in a keeper league comes more from year-to-year durability and consistency than it does from how many FPs he'll score this year. Don't drop him based on rankings that are out of context.

what he saidDodds(and others) can't possibly rank players based on each and every one of the thousands of leagues out there. It's one year redraft. Since you like the site+respect the thoughts of the staff give it some weight but still do it yourself with your own thoughts. Dodds and Joe B do NOT frown upon original thought

 

[Chris Smith]

Alright so I'm looking at the rankings and Ronnie Brown and Rhudi Johnson are ranked ahead of Peyton Manning. I'm just wondering how to read these rankings. Let's say I am in a 2 man keeper league, and I own Peyton Manning, Rhudi Jonhson, and Tiki Barber. Common sense tells me to keep Tiki and Peyton, but do these overall rankings mean that I should drop Peyton? Just wondering.

Teke

The rankings are one-year redraft league rankings for one specific scoring system. You really shouldn't just flat apply them to any other situation.For example, Manning's value in a keeper league comes more from year-to-year durability and consistency than it does from how many FPs he'll score this year. Don't drop him based on rankings that are out of context.

what he saidDodds(and others) can't possibly rank players based on each and every one of the thousands of leagues out there. It's one year redraft. Since you like the site+respect the thoughts of the staff give it some weight but still do it yourself with your own thoughts. Dodds and Joe B do NOT frown upon original thought

It all comes down to value later in the draft.

When I can add quarterbacks such as

Jake Plummer

Michael Vick

Daunte Culpepper

Jon Kitna (Martz' offense = )

Drew Bledsoe

Jake Delhomme

etc...

much later in the draft, it makes alot more sense to ignore the position and let somebody else take Manning that early. More often than not my squad will ultimately be stronger at both running back and receiver due to his first round pick of Manning and I don't believe there will be enough separation between Manning and the other top twelve quarterbacks to warrent picking him ahead of the Ronnie Browns, Rudi Johnsons, Edgerrin James and Cadillac Williams of the NFL.

In a keeper league, having a quarterback with the consistency of Peyton Manning becomes a very nice option. Definitely something to look at. In a keeper league with the players (Barber, Johnson and Manning) you mentioned... I would keep Manning and Rudi Johnson. However if the players were Ronnie Brown, Rudi Johnson and Manning, I would keep both Brown and Johnson and look to move Manning for draft pick value.

Just my

 

[Musesboy]

In a keeper league, having a quarterback with the consistency of Peyton Manning becomes a very nice option. Definitely something to look at. In a keeper league with the players (Barber, Johnson and Manning) you mentioned... I would keep Manning and Rudi Johnson.

This is very important to understand. Manning isn't going to lose his job. Brady is another that you can pencil in for the next 5+ years. Take a look at other QBs and see how many have that kind of job security. QB is a high scoring position. The redraft strategy of waiting until the middle rounds is fine. But will Warner, Brooks, Bledsoe, and many others, still be a starter in a few years? Look back at the last five years to see what I mean.In this particular case, is it possible to trade Barber and one of the other two for a top 3-4 back?

 

[David Yudkin]

I play in several keeper leagues, and another thing to consider is what other players will other teams keep and who might be available early in the draft.

If it seems like almost every other team is going to hoarde RB and there won't be many decent ones left, that may impact your decision. Similarly, if your league tends to ignore QB and there's a decent shot at getting him early in the draft, you might be able to swing that.

I've done this with Antonio Gates the past few seasons. I've had too many other guys to keep over him, so I dropped him and reclaimed him with my first pick.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would be very hesitant to drop any player that is the best at thier position. Thats not easy to replace.

 

[rzrback77]

If you truly are playing as if its a redraft, then make Manning available for trade. Surely you can move up and possibly get two first round picks in the draft. Starting with Rudi and Ronnie Brown and then adding a couple of top WRs, assuming that most will keep two RBs will go a long way to a strong squad.

 

[teke_218]

Ok, thanks for the thoughts. But now I'll throw in a curveball. What if the league gives 6 points for TD passes?

 

[Musesboy]

Ok, thanks for the thoughts. But now I'll throw in a curveball. What if the league gives 6 points for TD passes?

I prefer Manning over Barber as he can give you great production for another 5-8 years in all likelihood. 6 pts per TD would be a bonus.