QB Analysis: SOS rest of season... (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

According to my date, prior to the Week 3 games I have a list of what I deem Avg/Soft/Strong defenses against specifically the QB. Using a point formula of something close to 1/25pass, 6 pts TD, -2Int, rushing pretty standard, I get the following list and I will also look at the game stats from Week 3 to see if they are trending Up or Down. This is sort of a worksheet and something I would normally do on scratch paper and just merge into my weekly but I think I might be on to something so let's take a look as I need minds much smarter than mine to take some of this info and run. 

using the scoring system I outlined and throwing out the very best(Houston-9pts) and the worst (Oak-36pts) I found an avg of about 20. And San Fran was right in the middle with an avg of 20. I went +3/-3 or expanded that tier/pool of players to 17-23 and here is what you get...

Chi, Den, Car, NO, Buff, GB, MN, SF, Indy, Cinci, Cle, Dallas, Miami, Washington...if you have a QB facing these teams it would seem the advantage/disadvantage is neutral so if you have a strong QB then most of these defenses shouldn't be an issue...however we only have 2 week and I'm not stupid enough to assume what I just laid out is any type of bullet proof system, far from it. We're still fact gathering right now. Let's see how they all did Week 3 and if they are trending up or down. Let me list the soft and strong defenses vs opposing QBs.

Soft (24-36pts): NYJ, NE, SD, TB, JAX, ATL, Det, Oak...I want to point out that I am not sure if the Jets and Pats are actually soft. The Pats are definitely trending up and I wouldn't see them as a place to find a lot of points most weeks. They proved it shutting down Houston IMHO. 

Strong(15-9pts): Pitt, LA Rams, KCC, NYG, Balt, TN, Sea, AZ Philly, HOU...The Eagles are no joke, they shut down Big Ben much of the day. 

I think you can figure out what you want to do from here. Has anyone looked at a schedule or what QBs are likely to go on a tear right now or possibly late in the season? 

Philip Rivers has a nice run of games coming even with Denver twice (Oct 13/30th) 

Trevor Siemian has @TB, ATL, @SD, HOU, SD, @NO, @Oak, KC, @Jax, 

You can also flip this around to see which QBs have tougher games coming up...Stafford's schedule about to ramp up, much better defenses he will be facing. 

Add your thoughts, thanks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I should have updated lists today. Is there anybody out there? 

 

[need2know]

Winston's next 3 weeks.  Den, @car, bye 

Siemian's next 3 weeks. @ tb, vs atl, @ sd.

Pick up Siemian and play in front of winston through winston's bye?

 

[Ojaays]

Winston's next 3 weeks.  Den, @car, bye 

Siemian's next 3 weeks. @ tb, vs atl, @ sd.

Pick up Siemian and play in front of winston through winston's bye?

Shhhhhh.

 

[need2know]

Shhhhhh.

Yeah I'm doing it

 

[BobbyLayne]

For a moment I thought MoP was threatening to start using math.

 

[need2know]

For a moment I thought MoP was threatening to start using math.

Me no math

 

[BobbyLayne]

Yeah I'm doing it

Ditto

Tyrod has a brutal schedule

 

[TartanLion]

Winston has a great playoff schedule. NO twice in weeks 14 and 16 with Dallas in between in 15. And San Diego in week 13.

Im planning on riding Stafford most of the way barring any disastrous down turns and hopefully adding Winston at some point for the run in ( he's on waivers just now and I refuse to use two positions at QB ) 

his upcoming brutal schedule should keep him in the FA pool or see him dropped if anyone owns him. Just in time for us to pick him up 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For a moment I thought MoP was threatening to start using math.

 

what's sad is I grew up on Avalon Hill/SI football game form the 1970s, Strat o Matic, board games where I used paper and pen/pencil to tally stats by hand for the entire season, I am heavy into stats but a Domino's coupon I will never live down. 

 

[Skoo]

Winston has a great playoff schedule. NO twice in weeks 14 and 16 with Dallas in between in 15. And San Diego in week 13.

Im planning on riding Stafford most of the way barring any disastrous down turns and hopefully adding Winston at some point for the run in ( he's on waivers just now and I refuse to use two positions at QB ) 

his upcoming brutal schedule should keep him in the FA pool or see him dropped if anyone owns him. Just in time for us to pick him up 

Someone dropped Winston last week after his awful game and I scooped him up for his awesome playoff schedule. Since I don't have a better QB option I'm holding onto him through his bye. I feel like he still has a chance to put up Top 5 QB numbers and I don't wanna risk missing out.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Someone dropped Winston last week after his awful game and I scooped him up for his awesome playoff schedule. Since I don't have a better QB option I'm holding onto him through his bye. I feel like he still has a chance to put up Top 5 QB numbers and I don't wanna risk missing out.

Winston is a lot better than folks think.

I'm gonna be honest, when I see posters say that Winston is "dumb"...to me that's racist code for black quarterback. 

He is one of the best 5-10 QBs I have seen coming out of college. He was better than Charlie Ward by a lot and that kid won the Heisman. 

We'll see but I'm optimistic this kid will become one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the NFL over the next 2-3 years as more of the old guard retire. 

 

[Ojaays]

Winston is a lot better than folks think.

I'm gonna be honest, when I see posters say that Winston is "dumb"...to me that's racist code for black quarterback. 

He is one of the best 5-10 QBs I have seen coming out of college. He was better than Charlie Ward by a lot and that kid won the Heisman. 

We'll see but I'm optimistic this kid will become one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the NFL over the next 2-3 years as more of the old guard retire. 

I've invested heavily in him, He will win leagues for folks this year with that playoff schedule.

 

[BobbyLayne]

 

what's sad is I grew up on Avalon Hill/SI football game form the 1970s, Strat o Matic, board games where I used paper and pen/pencil to tally stats by hand for the entire season, I am heavy into stats but a Domino's coupon I will never live down. 

Actually preferred AH Bowl Bound over the Pro version. Couldn't stop the Texas option but if they were behind passing was an adventure.

Middle aged memory...the black x10 die was 1-3...the two white die were 0-5 & ? They added up to 0-9. The green and red defensive dice added up to 0-6??

Did you have the one with the fancy yellow scoreboard (round sliding dials for time, score, TOs.)

ETA: Strat-o-matic baseball ruled. Also like NBA. Played NHL some. Never football though.

I def wish I had taken Winston over TT.

 

[TartanLion]

Agree entirely. The Winston thread is an embarrassment right now. Guy is putting up decent numbers so far even with a dud game, yet the thinly veiled bile coming out from some in there seems to be far beyond discussing his fantasy numbers or even justifiable for  some of the mistakes he has made during games so far this season.  

 

[Steeler]

Winston has a great playoff schedule. NO twice in weeks 14 and 16 with Dallas in between in 15. And San Diego in week 13.

Im planning on riding Stafford most of the way barring any disastrous down turns and hopefully adding Winston at some point for the run in ( he's on waivers just now and I refuse to use two positions at QB ) 

his upcoming brutal schedule should keep him in the FA pool or see him dropped if anyone owns him. Just in time for us to pick him up 

I have both Stafford and Winston and I'm holding both all season.  Plan is to play Stafford now and fire up Winston for that awesome playoff schedule. 

 

[need2know]

I wouldn't be shocked if winston puts up numbers on den.  The odds aren't in his favor though.  He prob will still be in the top half of qb scoring this week

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Actually preferred AH Bowl Bound over the Pro version. Couldn't stop the Texas option but if they were behind passing was an adventure.

Middle aged memory...the black x10 die was 1-3...the two white die were 0-5 & ? They added up to 0-9. The green and red defensive dice added up to 0-6??

Did you have the one with the fancy yellow scoreboard (round sliding dials for time, score, TOs.)

ETA: Strat-o-matic baseball ruled. Also like NBA. Played NHL some. Never football though.

I def wish I had taken Winston over TT.

1971 Edition

I inherited it from Homeowners when my folks bought their first house in the early 80s. Took me a little while to figure it out, I was 8 or 9 years old. Miami lost to Dallas in the SB for the season I have. Their running game is awesome. Pass not so much. 

1983 Edition AH was my other...My mom god rest her soul thought the '71 game was sort of dated and thought I would enjoy a modern take and present players. The AH game took me a good while to master, it was more involved and in some ways not as much fun as just holding those bright color charts in the SI game and rolling dice. 

 

[FUBAR]

Winston is a lot better than folks think.

I'm gonna be honest, when I see posters say that Winston is "dumb"...to me that's racist code for black quarterback. 

He is one of the best 5-10 QBs I have seen coming out of college. He was better than Charlie Ward by a lot and that kid won the Heisman. 

We'll see but I'm optimistic this kid will become one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the NFL over the next 2-3 years as more of the old guard retire. 

Agreed.  I was a skeptic before last season, much more due to character than talent.  I still prefer Mariota long term but for this year and maybe next, Winston should be better due in no small part to the talent around him.  

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Winston's next 3 weeks.  Den, @car, bye 

Siemian's next 3 weeks. @ tb, vs atl, @ sd.

Pick up Siemian and play in front of winston through winston's bye?

interesting stuff.

Drafted Bortles and Winston and looking for help.  Thinking of grabbing Siemian thanks to this, but wondering if I should grab Wentz instead.

 

[need2know]

interesting stuff.

Drafted Bortles and Winston and looking for help.  Thinking of grabbing Siemian thanks to this, but wondering if I should grab Wentz instead.

Wentz is a choice for me too.  But can't use him this week.  I love wentz vs was though which i think is winston's bye.  Either way I don't see how we can play Winston vs denver.   I just wonder if Siemians can keep up the production.  Not much track record to look at

 

[Tanner9919]

Sam Bradford. Have a look at his schedule.Giants ,Redskins, Bears, Lions, etc. Cousins just carved the Giants to pieces..

Have a look at his final few weeks..

Indoors @ home , indoors @ detroit, cowboys, jags.all games indoors or in warm weather. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

In terms of WW, maybe Wentz but he shows no sign yet of exploding for big points, but then that;'s when you have to get players, before they blow up.

I think your question is really about QBBC.

Tannehill / Carr / Bortles / Winston .... pick 2, look at their schedule and hope for the best.

Carr btw has Indy week 16, so I like him in reserve just for that.

Winston gets NO week 16, also good.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Wentz is a choice for me too.  But can't use him this week.  I love wentz vs was though which i think is winston's bye.  Either way I don't see how we can play Winston vs denver.   I just wonder if Siemians can keep up the production.  Not much track record to look at

yep, all the exact things I've been considering today.

 

[LOCO]

Sam Bradford. Have a look at his schedule.Giants ,Redskins, Bears, Lions, etc. Cousins just carved the Giants to pieces..

Have a look at his final few weeks..

Indoors @ home , indoors @ detroit, cowboys, jags.all games indoors or in warm weather. 

I have mariota as my qb1.  i am in trouble.  May roll with Bradford.  Just don't trust rookie QBs.

 

[rickyg]

I have both Stafford and Winston and I'm holding both all season.  Plan is to play Stafford now and fire up Winston for that awesome playoff schedule. 

Same here.  They're combine schedule is cake!

 

[Rodrigo Duterte]

Winston is a lot better than folks think.

I'm gonna be honest, when I see posters say that Winston is "dumb"...to me that's racist code for black quarterback. 

He is one of the best 5-10 QBs I have seen coming out of college. He was better than Charlie Ward by a lot and that kid won the Heisman. 

We'll see but I'm optimistic this kid will become one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the NFL over the next 2-3 years as more of the old guard retire. 

Agree he's going to be better than most think and definitely fun to watch.

Couldn't disagree more about calling a player dumb being racist.  When a player does something obviously stupid it's okay to say so.  Manziel did a lot of dumb things -- is saying so racist?  What's really dumb is deciding a dissenting view of a player must be racist.

In your race card world, the "Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid" thread, must be all racists.

 

[need2know]

yep, all the exact things I've been considering today.

I'm going with Siemian