QB in the 1st (1 Viewer)

[Chaz]

I'm asking because post after post states something like "I don't like taking a QB early" or something along those lines. With 25,000+members here, is there anyone who has generally taken a QB in the first round?

I'm pretty sure that many people with say it depends on the year, depth of other positions, scoring system, etc... What I would like to know is how often you actually have gone with this strategy. Would you do it again?

Likely, the player would have been Brady or Manning (or Culpepper, going back a bit).

(This year, I'm looking at taking Brees in the first (3rd pick). It's a way way I see to separate myself from the rest of the herd who will be taking any of 10 interchangeable first round /backs.)

 

[JohnnyU]

The only way I would ever take a QB in the 1st rd is if we have to start two of them, and they get 6 points per TD pass instead of 4.

 

[tim_whatley]

#3 is a bit high IMHO.

But I am thinking about Brees @ #5, but if I do I am concerned that with my second pick, I will be forced to take a RB when what I really will want to take is a #1 WR. So let's say I took Brees and then AJ... then I am looking at mid 3rd round and no RB. That's probably not the greatest situation to be in.

It would probably make more sense to go RB, WR, RB and end up taking McNabb or Palmer later and hoping for the best.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I'm asking because post after post states something like "I don't like taking a QB early" or something along those lines. With 25,000+members here, is there anyone who has generally taken a QB in the first round? I'm pretty sure that many people with say it depends on the year, depth of other positions, scoring system, etc... What I would like to know is how often you actually have gone with this strategy. Would you do it again?Likely, the player would have been Brady or Manning (or Culpepper, going back a bit).(This year, I'm looking at taking Brees in the first (3rd pick). It's a way way I see to separate myself from the rest of the herd who will be taking any of 10 interchangeable first round /backs.)

I've taken a QB in the first round in a league that lets you start a 2nd QB as a flex. In a typical setup where you only start one QB, I've never taken one in the first round. And the people in my leagues who have taken one in the first round have never steamrolled through to a championship. The advantage you get by having Brees has to offset not just the "10 interchangeable first round backs" but the fact that you will be one pick behind everyone else every round until the rest of the QBs start going off the board. You'll be taking RB1 when they're taking RB2. You'll be taking RB2 when they're taking WR1. You'll be taking WR1 when they're taking WR2. Etc. IMO it's not worth it.

 

[gbill2004]

We are in a 2 QB league. Last season the GM with Romo and Peyton finished first in the regular season, but lost to me in the playoffs. However, the GM who had Rivers and Rodgers the 2 best fantasy QBs last season finished last in our league in the regular season.

Not sure this helps much, but I think it just really shows that it takes an all around good roster, no major injuries, some good trades/WW pickups and a bit of luck to succeed.

 

[Penguins]

I have been debating this for the past few weeks after I drew the #6 spot - and it honestly is very tempting. Dodds usually has a perfect draft article - which as a strategy doesn't take a QB early because of the amount you drop in other areas of your team.

I think if you take Brees, Brady - in the 1st - you have to feel comfortable - that rounds 2-6 will be focused on RB/WR - and you will have to be confident of your picking skills. Last year proved you can come up with some value - but takes a bit of luck. And be prepared to have your team tank - examples:

2007 - I felt like I had a good draft with my Tatum Bell, Ladell Betts, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington - but in 2007 those guys weren't really startable

2008 - My Round 6 & 7 went perfect with Chris Johnson and Dwayne Bowe

So - I suppose I'm trying to say that it puts a lot of risk in the latter rounds - which if you're comfortable with go for it - just remember those guys being drafted there are not drafted higher for a reason - because they have risk.

Personally - I am on the fence in the 6 spot on LT/Dwill, Moss, Brees - and I go back and forth.....as soon as I talk myself into one of them - I talk myself out.....personally I think its a tough call this year

 

[baconisgood]

I took Brees in a league where you can flex out a QB (4 pt td, 10 team) yesterday at #3 overall. This strategy leads to the best teams when no one else is going to take a QB early or lots of people are. If no one else does you grab your #2 or #3 QB in the second and have 1 position scoring above average points and 1 position scoring well above average points. If a bunch of other people take Qs as well that allows more talent to fall to you in the 2nd/3rd round. this happened yesterday when Rodgers, Rivers, Manning and Brady were all gone by my next pick dropping Calvin to the 18th spot.

 

[CMU37484]

Last year I took Brady #4 overall 12 team performance league, passing TD's are 6t pts.

I managed my team to a points title and won nearly $400 despite Brady going down. But if I had it all to do over again, I would not take a QB early. 1st round is a reach for sure, just too much risk.

 

[FUBAR]

I've taken QB at the end of the 1st, but it's never worked well for me.

 

[turfman]

I am a big beleiver in waiting to rounds 8-10. But last year I took Romo, can't remember if it was the end of first or beginning of second. I ended up being the #1 seed in the playoffs but it was mainly becasue of Forte, Gore and R. White. My other receivers took a huge hit because of it (start 3) and that is one reason I got bounced from the playoffs in the first round. I will never draft a QB early again.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I've never taken a QB in the 1st and probably never will. Rather go RB/RB, RB/WR or WR/WR. I look to fill the QB slot about round 5 or later depending on what is left and how long I might be able to forgo the position and still find decent value. Of course, when waiting on a QB, the smart play is to go QB/QB in successive rounds, no matter which later rounds they happen to be.

HTH

 

[dornado]

I've actually done it twice in a 12 team redaft, start 1 QB, 4 points per passing TD.

Once in 1994 with Steve Young.. and once in 2007 with Peyton Manning.

The year I took Manning I won the title. I never say never to these type of things because I think it depends entirely on who you think will be available when you pick next... in that particular year I wasn't sold on a lot of top RBs and started QB-WR (Owens) because I thought there were some decent guys available in the mid-rounds at the RB position. So I would say count it down... figure out how drafting a QB in the first round will effect your overall draft strategy... if you're comfortable that the guys you'll get later at the RB and WR spots are in respectable tiers production-wise, I say go nuts.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I wouldn't do it, but if you do, you had better not miss with any of your RB and WR picks in the next four or five rounds, or you are in big trouble.

 

[drew726]

Whether you draft a QB in the 1st round or wherever, it still depends what RB/WR you drafted earlier or later. The random players who have breakout seasons in the later rounds are what wins championships anyways.

 

[Moldy Potato]

My league awards 6 points per TD pass, and 1 point for every 20 yards passing.

Based on those settings, and the FBG projections, Draft Dominator suggests that the #3 team take Tom Brady and the #6 team take Drew Brees. I will be drafting at #7, and am pretty sure one, if not both, of those guys will be available.

I don't like the idea of drafting a QB that early, but based on what the DD is saying, it can't be THAT bad of an idea...so I have a decision to make.

What do you guys think?

 

[hauser42]

In the total points league I play in QBs have the highest value according to the DD. It is a distance scoring system and QBs reapoints.lly do carry teams to titles. Years ago I took Steve Young with 1st pick since QBs running in TDs is double points.

In this league right now I'm thinking Brees or Brady in the 1st round for this year. There is not a lot of clear 1st round picks this year so taking a top QB will allow me to wait on the backup and keep hammering the other spots through the draft.

 

[baconisgood]

In the total points league I play in QBs have the highest value according to the DD. It is a distance scoring system and QBs reapoints.lly do carry teams to titles. Years ago I took Steve Young with 1st pick since QBs running in TDs is double points.In this league right now I'm thinking Brees or Brady in the 1st round for this year. There is not a lot of clear 1st round picks this year so taking a top QB will allow me to wait on the backup and keep hammering the other spots through the draft.

If QBs running in TDs gives you double points I would be inclined to try to grab Rodgers in the 2nd if I could. Brees has 5 rushing TDs in 106 starts and Brady has 5 in 111 starts and is coming off major knee surgery- unlikely he even gets 1 this year. Rodgers seems to be the only top QB who is a threat for 3+ rushing TDs this year, an extra 18-24 pts would put him very close to my projections for Brees/Brady, I'll tkae the #7 RB + Rodgers over the #10-12 RB and Brady/Brees.

 

[Eric]

We start 2 QBs and they get 6 pts per passing touchdown. I drafted Brady at 1.6, Manning at 2.5, and still managed to get some decent RBs (D. Williams, R. Brown, P. Thomas, R. Bush). Everybody gave me #### at the time, but I couldn't be happier with my team.

 

[ajopiela]

Unless your in a start 2 qb league, i see no reason why you would want to grab a qb in the 1st.

Brady and Brees will be there in the 2nd...

 

[Christo]

Unless your in a start 2 qb league, i see no reason why you would want to grab a qb in the 1st.Brady and Brees will be there in the 2nd...

Not necessarily. I had a draft this weekend where Brees, Manning & Rodgers went in the first round.

 

[Chaz]

I wouldn't do it, but if you do, you had better not miss with any of your RB and WR picks in the next four or five rounds, or you are in big trouble.

This kind of gets to the point I'm working with. Every year, there are plenty of top ten Backs who fail to live up to expectations. This makes a "miss" in the early going fairly likely. It seems that an RB I take a chance with a couple of rounds later has just as much of a chance of hitting or missing as one taken early. Given the ???s surrounding so many first rounders this year, I may be just as likely to to hit on one later.I'm just saying that, for all the talk of "locking up RBs early," there is little guarantee that this will solidify the position for a team. Just as well to lock up the surest thing on the board (Brees, IMO).

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Anytime I've had the 9th or 10th pick I've gone with Brady.

 

[hauser42]

In the total points league I play in QBs have the highest value according to the DD. It is a distance scoring system and QBs reapoints.lly do carry teams to titles. Years ago I took Steve Young with 1st pick since QBs running in TDs is double points.In this league right now I'm thinking Brees or Brady in the 1st round for this year. There is not a lot of clear 1st round picks this year so taking a top QB will allow me to wait on the backup and keep hammering the other spots through the draft.

If QBs running in TDs gives you double points I would be inclined to try to grab Rodgers in the 2nd if I could. Brees has 5 rushing TDs in 106 starts and Brady has 5 in 111 starts and is coming off major knee surgery- unlikely he even gets 1 this year. Rodgers seems to be the only top QB who is a threat for 3+ rushing TDs this year, an extra 18-24 pts would put him very close to my projections for Brees/Brady, I'll tkae the #7 RB + Rodgers over the #10-12 RB and Brady/Brees.

I keep my draft boards(VBD) and my draft tracker sheets.In the league I am talking about Brady had a value of 200, Romo and Brees 113. LT was at 148 and ADP 117, while Moss was at 136. These are the only guys that were over 100. 4 QBs in the top 10, 4 RBs, and 2 WRs. There are a lot of RBs being taken early that are not putting up numbers while the QBs are. I took WRs early and then from Rd 5-9 took RBs. I ended having T. Jones and Slaton become starters.I'm a firm believer that about 3-4 years ago the NFL changed to a passing league and RB committee league. Besides a few RBs the value of them has slipped. Too many people are still out there chasing 2RBs early and loosing value, love it when I am drafting against them though.

 

[valence]

Only time was last year when i took Brady at 1.9. We all know how that worked out.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

In a 12 team or less league...no, in a 14 or higher... yes and QBs must get 6pts per td.

 

[drm1125]

I took Brady in the first last year, at the 3rd pick and I'd do it again. In my league QB's are very valuable and if you have a medicore QB, you struggle like crazy. With 6 pts for all td's plus bonus points for long td's and extra points for "out of potion" tds, it's well worth it. Every year, I watch guys go RB-RB in the first 2 rounds and stuggle to survive in the league. I think it's because you can always find surprising RB's but it's very hard to find surprising QB's.

Draft Dominator for my league says Brady is #2, Brees is #6 and Manning is #7. Thar's pretty much how the draft goes also, where QB's go very early, all the top QB's are gone by the end of the second round. It's one of the reasons that this year I dread getting the #1 pick bucause in a league like mine, it's almost a garrentee that with the #1 pick won't get a top QB.

 

[baconisgood]

In the total points league I play in QBs have the highest value according to the DD. It is a distance scoring system and QBs reapoints.lly do carry teams to titles. Years ago I took Steve Young with 1st pick since QBs running in TDs is double points.

In this league right now I'm thinking Brees or Brady in the 1st round for this year. There is not a lot of clear 1st round picks this year so taking a top QB will allow me to wait on the backup and keep hammering the other spots through the draft.

If QBs running in TDs gives you double points I would be inclined to try to grab Rodgers in the 2nd if I could. Brees has 5 rushing TDs in 106 starts and Brady has 5 in 111 starts and is coming off major knee surgery- unlikely he even gets 1 this year. Rodgers seems to be the only top QB who is a threat for 3+ rushing TDs this year, an extra 18-24 pts would put him very close to my projections for Brees/Brady, I'll tkae the #7 RB + Rodgers over the #10-12 RB and Brady/Brees.

I keep my draft boards(VBD) and my draft tracker sheets.

In the league I am talking about Brady had a value of 200, Romo and Brees 113. LT was at 148 and ADP 117, while Moss was at 136. These are the only guys that were over 100. 4 QBs in the top 10, 4 RBs, and 2 WRs. There are a lot of RBs being taken early that are not putting up numbers while the QBs are. I took WRs early and then from Rd 5-9 took RBs. I ended having T. Jones and Slaton become starters.

I'm a firm believer that about 3-4 years ago the NFL changed to a passing league and RB committee league. Besides a few RBs the value of them has slipped. Too many people are still out there chasing 2RBs early and loosing value, love it when I am drafting against them though.

I assume you are talking about 2007? I've got Brady down for ~35 passing TDs this year, not 50+2 rushing. If you have any QB projected to go 40+ TDs then yes I would take him.

 

[zed2283]

I have taken a QB in the 1st in the past, and each time I feel like I'm playing catch up for the rest of the draft. I remember that it worked out for me once (took Manning and made the playoffs) but I still was uncomfortable with my draft at the time.

 

[drm1125]

I wonder if it also depends on the size of your bench, in my league, we only have 4 bench spots so there are always RB's that come out of nowhere, like Slaton, that are on the waiver wire. Maybe if your league has a ton of bench spots it's harder to find surprises. I wonder if a study has been done about leagues with shallow benches? The main thing is the surprises are almost always RB's not QB's or WR's. I've changed my drafting in the last couple of years, where I always went RB-RB before, now I'm gonna have a QB by the 2nd round. I've finished in the money the last 2 years because I changed my drafting.

 

[Instinctive]

With numbe rone pick I take one of Brees/Brady/Manning if they fall at 2.12.

Other than that I grab Schaub at 5.01 if lots of QBs gone, or 6.12 if RB/WR are getting too thin

 

[the 'boys]

I'd much rather have Forte/Turner/MJD/CJ3 and McNabb or a lesser QB then a Brees and Kevin smith type RB.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I'd much rather have Forte/Turner/MJD/CJ3 and McNabb or a lesser QB then a Brees and Kevin smith type RB.

last year: Forte + McNabb = 277.50 + 271.34 = 548.84Brees + Kevin Smith = 364.22 + 183.20 = 547.42seems like a wash to me

 

[Masked Vigilante]

I've seen a ton of variability in Brady's draft position this year. He's going as early as the mid first in some drafts and as late as the mid third in others. Brees on the other hand is usually picked in the early to mid second round.

A lot of owners find it comforting going RB-RB in the first two rounds. If you're one of these guys, chances are you won't like your team if you take a QB early. I've been burned taking RB's early in the past few years so I took Brady in the second this year. I love the consistency and upside he brings. I think its much easier finding quality RB later on and on the waiver wire.

 

[Burgendy]

I think it all depends on if you think Brees/Brady are going to toss 35+ TDs AND you believe the dropoff past them is quite steep AND you don't see any breakouts from the rest of the field. Last year you could see Rodgers and Cutler coming on strong a mile away and draft them in the middle rounds with great upside. This year I just don't see anyone surprising unless Schaub actually plays 16 games or Cincy gets it back on track and Palmer resumes his status as an upper tier QB. Past that I think a lot of QB's are going to finish very similarly to last year. So if your scoring system is very favorable towards QB's then tying up one of the top 2 guys is not a bad move as long as long as you do your homework on the RB's 15-40 to mine the best candidates for breakout seasons.

 

[mozzy84]

I took brees towards the end of the first in two leagues last year and went WR with my next pick (moss and fitz). Was able to land thomas jones in the 3 or 4th in both also. Won money in both leagues anyways. Not something I do every year but would definitely do it again.

 

[Zow]

The only way I would ever take a QB in the 1st rd is if we have to start two of them, and they get 6 points per TD pass instead of 4.

yep, in a 4 pt per passing league they just aren't worth it when you consider the top from a top 5 RB/WR to top 25. There is a difference between Brady and say a Donovan McNabb, but it's not as wide.

 

[Zow]

I took brees towards the end of the first in two leagues last year and went WR with my next pick (moss and fitz). Was able to land thomas jones in the 3 or 4th in both also. Won money in both leagues anyways. Not something I do every year but would definitely do it again.

certainly it can work out, but you gotta get really lucky in the 2nd round and snag a deep sleeper (i.e. steve slaton last year) in the later rounds to make up for your starting lack of firepower at those positions. That's not a gamble I want to take if I'm picking in the top 7 or so picks and know I can hit a quality RB (and top 12 this year with 4 stud WRs around).

 

[Zow]

I'd much rather have Forte/Turner/MJD/CJ3 and McNabb or a lesser QB then a Brees and Kevin smith type RB.

last year: Forte + McNabb = 277.50 + 271.34 = 548.84Brees + Kevin Smith = 364.22 + 183.20 = 547.42seems like a wash to me

Forte didn't have the same value last year. He is predicted to do much better this year.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I'd much rather have Forte/Turner/MJD/CJ3 and McNabb or a lesser QB then a Brees and Kevin smith type RB.

last year: Forte + McNabb = 277.50 + 271.34 = 548.84Brees + Kevin Smith = 364.22 + 183.20 = 547.42seems like a wash to me

Forte didn't have the same value last year. He is predicted to do much better this year.

you can substitute LT or Peterson last year and the same argument applies

 

[baconisgood]

I'd much rather have Forte/Turner/MJD/CJ3 and McNabb or a lesser QB then a Brees and Kevin smith type RB.

last year: Forte + McNabb = 277.50 + 271.34 = 548.84Brees + Kevin Smith = 364.22 + 183.20 = 547.42seems like a wash to me

Forte didn't have the same value last year. He is predicted to do much better this year.

So is Kevin Smith- and Smith arguably has more room to grow.