Can’t even really blame the line, either. Yeah he’s been sacked a lot today, but the majority have been him holding the ball way too long.
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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Bryce DeGroat
Justin Jefferson was QB proof with:
- Kirk Cousins
- Sam Darnold
- Nick Mullens
- Carson Wentz
- Josh Dobbs
- Jaren Hall
- Sean Mannion
And all of a sudden he’s struggling….
This should tell you everything you need to know about JJ McCarthy
rockaction
Footballguy
This is sort of a working out like Clyde Edwards Helaire but my claims here were modest.
19 throws. Sounds like they turned him loose.
Think I know enough to comment yet? Won’t even speak the name. Was showing observers some of these threads and they were wondering some things. The Moms actually got upset.
Sunk cost, I said. How appropriate for this thread. Discuss.
19 throws. Sounds like they turned him loose.
Think I know enough to comment yet? Won’t even speak the name. Was showing observers some of these threads and they were wondering some things. The Moms actually got upset.
Sunk cost, I said. How appropriate for this thread. Discuss.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
I'm not ready to completely throw in the towel as he's still a rookie (in a way) but he seems pretty bad and KOC (or whoever picked him) might of gotten this wrong
Boston
Footballguy
That is the x-factor with JJM...KOC is seen as kind of a QB-whisperer and while still early he does not look good and he is not in a bad situation...if things don't improve the rest of this season it's gonna be really interesting to see what they do this offseason.
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BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
I can only assume that they might not be willing to give up on a guy after his first year of starting but maybe KOC/Kwesi have seen enough amd they are going to move on. Assuming they don't though they'll probably spend a lower pick on another QB and sign a vet. Flacco? Hopefully no Wilson. Danny Dimes is the best available but he could resign with the colts. Maybe Trey Lance?
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Is there any evidence that Lance is any better than McCarthy?
rockaction
Footballguy
I wonder if people are going to show up for their receipts about whether Kevin O’Connell will use him like his other quaterbacks until he has at least a month under his belt.
Can you imagine people getting worked up about that statement to where the offended people tell you that you don’t know football, subsequently send you nasty PMs, and then when you publicize that this has been done, they tell you that you need professional help for your mental state?
Think about that and what that says about not only that person and me, but what is considered allowable or acceptable both by official and social sanction.
And forget me for a minute. This guy is reviled for no reason other than he isn’t very good and the “wrong" kind of people backed him. And that’s what these fights are about. They’re cultural detritus. Screw all that.
Be above it.
Can you imagine people getting worked up about that statement to where the offended people tell you that you don’t know football, subsequently send you nasty PMs, and then when you publicize that this has been done, they tell you that you need professional help for your mental state?
Think about that and what that says about not only that person and me, but what is considered allowable or acceptable both by official and social sanction.
And forget me for a minute. This guy is reviled for no reason other than he isn’t very good and the “wrong" kind of people backed him. And that’s what these fights are about. They’re cultural detritus. Screw all that.
Be above it.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Not pointing anyone out, but it happens to everyone that goes against the crowd. Receipts are dumb, we just have to move on. We all get some correct and we get just as many incorrect. No offense to anyone here,.but if anyone of us were getting them all right we wouldn't be posting here, we would be taking all the money, in all the leagues, all the time.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
I don't think so but there was a preseason game (this year) where he looked good. Grain of salt. He's 6 for 12 so far this season with no ints (but no tds either)
rockaction
Footballguy
No kidding. So maybe asking people to keep it cool would resonate. That’s my first remedy. But a whole host of people seem to have trouble with that. I think even with as much **** as I give, that’s long been my contention. Just be cool. If not, I'll say this: I’m right wayyyyyy more than some of the agitated clowns I’ve had to deal with. So there’s also that. And I’m accountable for strong pronouncements gone awry. Heck, even mild ones. It’s been ten-fifteen years of watching the same unaccounted-for garbage fly.
By the way, you were right about snap counts with that guy. All other things constant, they matter. Ben Gretch, who plays and wins big stakes, had said that in his sub newsletter and musings (it was inherent in his mention of it) and he (Ben) didn’t give it a "ceteris paribus” qualification like I did. That said, routes are key in PPR for RBs. But imagine getting nuance out of dude. I generally make the claims that are the least broad of claims you can make; hence the distinctions I just made. So yeah, the guy you were arguing with has pulled the same arrogant act about stuff that he’s completely wrong about. Objectively, not opinion-wise. Like valid medical studies of pro athletes and health.
Forget people like that.
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Boston
Footballguy
I don't think they will move on from him (at least that is my guess) as they knew he was pretty raw when they drafted him...I was thinking more about what they would add to their QB room...do they bring in someone to actually compete with him (an example would be Mac Jones), just bring in a reliable veteran/higher-end backup (Jameis may fall into this category) or do they dip back into the draft using a higher pick...would love to know how KOC really feels about him right now.
Would love to see Mac with those weapons.
Jewell
Footballguy
Among starting QBs, J.J. McCarthy is statistically last in completion percentage, TD-to-INT ratio, and passer rating. There is no “could be”. McCarthy is the worst starting QB.
Boston
Footballguy
This is a JJM topic but it is gonna be real interesting to see what the market is for Mac this offseason.
JJM is not ready to play in the NFL, that is obvious. He needs to sit, watch, and work for another year or two
It is obvious KOC was wrong in his evaluation of JJM in drafting him and being able to play sooner than later
KOC not keeping one of the veteran QB he had on the roster last season has ruined this franchise
This single decision has ruined the Vikings, they have to get a competent starting QB in the offseason
then have JJM sit and work on getting better to be able to play, that is if KOC and the Vikings believe in him
KOC has not done JJM any favors either with how he has run the offense this season with a QB who was not ready to do it
Am sure there are players who are not happy with how the season has gone and having JJM at QB
I am sure JJ is one of them
It is obvious KOC was wrong in his evaluation of JJM in drafting him and being able to play sooner than later
KOC not keeping one of the veteran QB he had on the roster last season has ruined this franchise
This single decision has ruined the Vikings, they have to get a competent starting QB in the offseason
then have JJM sit and work on getting better to be able to play, that is if KOC and the Vikings believe in him
KOC has not done JJM any favors either with how he has run the offense this season with a QB who was not ready to do it
Am sure there are players who are not happy with how the season has gone and having JJM at QB
I am sure JJ is one of them
rockaction
Footballguy
Broseph, kids' gloves have never been kids-ier.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
It is way too early to judge how McCarthy’s career will go, however he has not looked anywhere near a competent NFL starting QB when I have watched him play.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with this. Too early. If he's mentally tough and make the mechanical adjustments, then he might be okay . . . but people have been saying this (that he was suspect and developmental) since they "scouted" him like Nate Tice did. Thing is, Nate Tice is a nice guy with steady grounding and he was pointing out the "can't throw left" thing for quite some time, but he moves on in life and doesn't make it his cause celebre to rip on the kid. But the reservations are lodged and public.
J.J. has a looooooong way to go and they were built for this year. Thing is, Sam and Daniel are with offensive geniuses an they too are coming way, way back to earth
Dizzy
Footballguy
That X stat Faust shared in reply #1,371 above says it all... the only QB over the last 25 years ranked lower than JJ is JaMarcus Russell? Dude does not have IT.
Lose the war paint, lose the "alter ego" and drop the self-appointed nickname (Nine)... stuff does not fly for a (would be) franchise QB. Get to work on learning the position and hope to hang on to NFL job ala Kenny Pickett.
Lose the war paint, lose the "alter ego" and drop the self-appointed nickname (Nine)... stuff does not fly for a (would be) franchise QB. Get to work on learning the position and hope to hang on to NFL job ala Kenny Pickett.
Max Power
Footballguy
JJM was a project when he was drafted. It was what everyone was saying about him. He didn't throw a lot at Michigan and he was a kid that needed some development years. I hate the NFL has a win-now with rookie QB mentality. A couple franchises got lucky with a QB on a rookie contract making the superbowl and now teams think that's how it has to work.
That said... the Vikings messed up the situation pretty hardcore. They should have known what they had in JJM and shouldn't have let both Jones and Darnold leave.
Luckily I think there will be some quality options available this year. Even guys like Tua or Kyler Murray can probably be had for cheap.
That said... the Vikings messed up the situation pretty hardcore. They should have known what they had in JJM and shouldn't have let both Jones and Darnold leave.
Luckily I think there will be some quality options available this year. Even guys like Tua or Kyler Murray can probably be had for cheap.
Jewell
Footballguy
Sam Darnold isn’t coming way back to Earth. Sure, he has a high turnover count, but he’s also:
1st in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt
1st in Overall Yards Per Attempt
1st in Adjusted EPA Per Play
2nd in Completion % Over Expectation
6th in Passing Yards
5th in Passing TDs
6th in QBR
5th in Passer Rating
Both the stats and Seahawks’ record show that Sam Darnold is playing like one of the best QBs in the NFL.
rockaction
Footballguy
His coach doesn't think so. you're giving rate stats; that's why those ones all look so good. when you come down to it; his coach doesn't have him throw very often.
and "coming back down to earth" implies a temporal judgment.
Jewell
Footballguy
Kubiak offenses have always been run heavy to open up deep strikes on play action. That's not an indictment on the QB. That's an offensive philosophy, and that philosophy is working for the Seahawks. There's absolutely no indication that either OC Klint Kubiak or HC Mike Macdonald are displeased with Darnold.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Can`t believe Vikings beat the Lions with JJ starting. That one stings.
JJ looks totally lost out there with zero confidence. Vikings have great WRs, that is good and bad for a young QB. When they look frustrated it has to weigh heavy on on a young QB.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure. I'm willing to go with "Sam has been excellent this year," but if we're predicting things then I predict he begins to resemble his former self with improvements (slight) that give him a slightly different posterior mean of being better than before the year, but not by a ton (although undoubtedly it will be his career year).
As far as "coming back to earth," he just finished 13th and 18th in QBR with a 32.6 and 42.2 the past two weeks, and he had a 2:4 TD/INT ratio for those two games, a 3:5 TD/INT ratio for the past three, and if we extend out to that great outlier and excellent game against WAS then it's a 7:6 TD/INT ratio.
I'd be willing to say that if we check back in here in a month he'll have further regressed to his mean. And we could pick a volume or rate number.
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rockaction
Footballguy
And if we were to go further we could check Kubiak's PROE with Carr and with Sam and MacDonald's with Geno and Sam. That might tell us something. I'm not even sure what the null hypothesis would be because I'm not sure MacDonald is having Sam throw less than Geno. I feel like it's a strong to definite possibility that Derek Carr threw more than Sam both in volume/raw ways and then adjusted for situation.
Here they are. We can’t say much but we can say Geno threw in neutral situations under MacDonald much, much more than Sam.
I think you could say Derek threw a touch more than Sam per expectation on certain downs but that -7 looks pretty equal to me.
I posted Kubiak's run/pass tendency when he was OC with MN and Cousins was MN's in '21. Started every game that year. Big difference from -7% to -2%. That's actually what I can surmise is a large number given what we're measuring. So maybe Klint thought Carr was equal to Sam or vice-versa. But not Kirk.
Here they are. We can’t say much but we can say Geno threw in neutral situations under MacDonald much, much more than Sam.
I think you could say Derek threw a touch more than Sam per expectation on certain downs but that -7 looks pretty equal to me.
I posted Kubiak's run/pass tendency when he was OC with MN and Cousins was MN's in '21. Started every game that year. Big difference from -7% to -2%. That's actually what I can surmise is a large number given what we're measuring. So maybe Klint thought Carr was equal to Sam or vice-versa. But not Kirk.
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Your two sentences don't match.
Max Power
Footballguy
Its more that I believe KOC can make those two into decent QB options.
Not if he keeps up his current play calling strategy. He has been terrible the last few games. JJM has been bad but KOC isn't doing anything to help him with play calls either.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Mac Jones?
mjb03003
Footballguy
From The Athletic:
J.J. McCarthy. How do I know EPA per dropback is a trustworthy QB stat? Peyton Manning leads all quarterbacks in that stat since 2000. Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are among the top 10.
Well, after Minnesota's McCarthy completed 12 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions in a 23-6 loss to the Packers, he now has an EPA per dropback that ranks 275th among the 282 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes in that era.
That's three spots below Josh Rosen, also a former No. 10 pick, who was replaced by the Cardinals after a brutal rookie year. Could McCarthy follow a similar trajectory? Mac Jones, Joe Flacco or any of the following should tempt Kevin O'Connell ...
J.J. McCarthy. How do I know EPA per dropback is a trustworthy QB stat? Peyton Manning leads all quarterbacks in that stat since 2000. Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are among the top 10. Well, after Minnesota's McCarthy completed 12 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions in a 23-6 loss to the Packers, he now has an EPA per dropback that ranks 275th among the 282 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes in that era.
That's three spots below Josh Rosen, also a former No. 10 pick, who was replaced by the Cardinals after a brutal rookie year. Could McCarthy follow a similar trajectory? Mac Jones, Joe Flacco or any of the following should tempt Kevin O'Connell ...
Dizzy
Footballguy
OMG, worst case scenario for MIN (potentially). What if Max Brosmer plays and looks good (for a rookie)?
Nine ain't gonna like it!
Yikes, McCarthy was Justin Fields bad yesterday. I didn’t think the Vikes would throw in the towel and trade for his replacement, but now I’m not so sure…
FairWarning
Footballguy
He was basically the Michigan version of Craig Krenzel in college.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
Who would they trade for?
The Frankman
Footballguy
Rotoworld's Pat Daughtery - Sunday Aftermath: J.J. McCarthy’s free fall, Baker Mayfield’s injury and more
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Glad I didn’t watch any of this game.
Mac Jones.
