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QB Sam Howell, SEA (2 Viewers)

Dr. Octopus said:
Since this has to be Rivera’s last shot, I’d say Howell’s leash is short.
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I agree, but I'd go further than that. I'd say that Rivera is actually a lame duck whether he realizes it or not. I'm not sure to the extent that the Commanders did it, but they really left Rivera in charge of personnel á la Belichick because they were undergoing serious investigations by the league and other entities. Hiring Rivera in that role took the heat off of ownership and put a new face of the franchise out there. I don't think the new ownership group will continue to sign off on that structure, and it'll probably have to be a clean break.

This is all speculation, but you drop six billion on a team, you want your guys running it.
 
Sam is surprisingly mobile too. He has the ability to be a sneaky "running QB" who is being drafted after statues like Mac Jones. Risk is there I suppose, but he's plenty cheap with an upside bigger than a guy like Mac IMO. I'm not even sure Jones is better than Zappe, so it's not like Jones is sure bet either. I'll take the upside of Howell over Jones any day. Brissett is plenty cheap as a back up in case of flame out.
 
I would think Howell's leash is long. Because as an owner I'd tell Ron to leave him out there all year no matter what. I wouldn't care if we went 0-17 (a la Peyton Manning) I don't want to see Brissett unless Howell gets hurt. And honestly that should be the plan. It does no good to see Brissett out there. To what, win a few more games. I'd rather tank the season if he's not the guy. There are several good QBs coming out next draft. I'd rather tank for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye if Howell isn't the guy. And no way would I let Ron's (or the players) desire to win a couple more games get in the way of that. I'd fire him before that happens. This team needs a plan for greatness 2 years from now, not for this season unless there is success early under Howell. And if Howell does prove himself a starter the team President/GM hired in the offseason can decide what to do with Ron.
 
ericttspikes said:
Sam is surprisingly mobile too. He has the ability to be a sneaky "running QB" who is being drafted after statues like Mac Jones. Risk is there I suppose, but he's plenty cheap with an upside bigger than a guy like Mac IMO. I'm not even sure Jones is better than Zappe, so it's not like Jones is sure bet either. I'll take the upside of Howell over Jones any day. Brissett is plenty cheap as a back up in case of flame out.
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Running is a sizable part of Howell's profile. He's not fast, but he thinks he's young Russell Wilson sometimes.

That being said, I think I'd clearly prefer Mac Jones. Jones had a great rookie season, I'm not sure any young QB (maybe Burrow?) could have made it work with Matt Patricia calling plays last year. Jones deserves every bit the pass for last year than Lawrence got as a rookie in my opinion.

I have Howell more in line with vets like Tannehill or Mayfield, because of that higher likelihood of losing his job, that I don't think a guy like Mac Jones has. Ultimately, we are talking about guys who will likely go undrafted in all non-SF leagues.
 
Howell vs Jones is a discussion? Wow.

I'd flip Howell in a millisecond for Jones. People are sleeping on Jones this year. He's good value in start 2 leagues.
 
Small sample size but he seemed to process information quickly and well. He is good outside the pocket and can run when needed. We still have not seen enough of him but with Bieniemy bringing a new offense that should cater to what Howell does best the arrows should point up to the upside of Sam Howell. We will see.
 

www.youtube.com

Heâs the Next BIG THING in Washington ð¨.. Sam Howell is taking over @ Commanders OTAâs .. QB1

www.youtube.com www.youtube.com


www.yardbarker.com

Commanders receiver says QB Sam Howell 'running the show'

The Washington Commanders have a quarterback competition on their hands and it looks like the young gun currently has the upper hand. It's second year-QB Sam Howell going at it with eight-year veteran Jacoby Brissett.
www.yardbarker.com



www.commanders.com

OTA notebook | Sam Howell looks sharp in first reps as QB1

The Washington Commanders just wrapped up their first practice of OTAs. Here are some observations from the afternoon.
www.commanders.com www.commanders.com

All very positive updates so far.

I’d say make Brissett a priority if you get him in SF, but his rushing upside is legit.

1 bad year in college when his team disintegrated around him, but his prior stats were impressive.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
JohnnyU said:
I traded a 2024 4th for the last pick (4.12) in this years draft and took him. Probably better than what was left.
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but he's a roster clogger, weakest QB2 in the league and not worth a roster spot from what I hear. Why would you trade for that?
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I really think he might be something. His rushing ability screams FF relevance, and he’s an accurate passer.

Good weapons, he’s got moxie, and most of his college career was noteworthy. That last season tanked his draft stock.

The more I see the more I like him.
 
Last edited:
JohnnyU said:
I traded a 2024 4th for the last pick (4.12) in this years draft and took him. Probably better than what was left.
Click to expand...
I followed this up by trading Howell, who I took at 4.12 in rookie draft, and a 2024 3rd for Israel Abanikandi and I don't even have Breece Hall.
 
Win now 1QB orphan team #3- just wrapped up the draft. Got cute at 5.06 and grabbed an RB.. had been hoping Howell would make it out of the draft and onto waivers- he got picked at 5.11. I've got Geno and Kyler in that league so feeling OK-ish there but bummed that my game theory was a "swing and a miss." Offered a 24 5th and no dice. Hopefully won't regret that. That team is due for a crash and burn in the next couple of years anyway so bit of a NBD.... Had to keep all of my picks as a hedge against the wheels coming off the wagon there this year.

On top of that, does anyone really know that he's for sure starting? Jacoby was pretty effective last year and if Howell is screwing the pooch out there, can't imagine the leash is super long.
 
greenmountaingoat said:
Win now 1QB orphan team #3- just wrapped up the draft. Got cute at 5.06 and grabbed an RB.. had been hoping Howell would make it out of the draft and onto waivers- he got picked at 5.11. I've got Geno and Kyler in that league so feeling OK-ish there but bummed that my game theory was a "swing and a miss." Offered a 24 5th and no dice. Hopefully won't regret that. That team is due for a crash and burn in the next couple of years anyway so bit of a NBD.... Had to keep all of my picks as a hedge against the wheels coming off the wagon there this year.

On top of that, does anyone really know that he's for sure starting? Jacoby was pretty effective last year and if Howell is screwing the pooch out there, can't imagine the leash is super long.
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If you feel that way about Howell and he was taken at 5.11, why didn't you offer a 2024 4th round rookie pick?
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dr. Octopus said:
JohnnyU said:
I traded a 2024 4th for the last pick (4.12) in this years draft and took him. Probably better than what was left.
Click to expand...
but he's a roster clogger, weakest QB2 in the league and not worth a roster spot from what I hear. Why would you trade for that?
Click to expand...
I really think he might be something. His rushing ability screams FF relevance, and he’s an accurate passer.

Good weapons, he’s got moxie, and most of his college career was noteworthy. That last season tanked his draft stock.

The more I see the more I like him.
Click to expand...

He wasn't an accurate passer in college. For example, here are some weaknesses in his NFL draft profile at nfl.com:

He muscles throws, hindering his accuracy on drive throws but has adequate arm strength and can expedite off-platform throws. Howell doesn't throw with nearly enough timing or ball placement, which forces wideouts into the boundaries or to break stride, limiting their YAC potential.

  • Ball pat and windup slow the release.
  • Touch and timing both need work.
  • Muscles the throws with upper body causing the ball to sail.
  • Falls off the throw unnecessarily.
  • Gives safety a head-start to make plays over the top.
  • Deep balls come out late and a little flat.
  • Placement issues make receivers work hard.
  • Lacks accuracy on drive throws.
Click to expand...

I think he has interesting potential, but I don't think accuracy is among his strengths.
 
JohnnyU said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
He wasn't an accurate passer in college. For example, here are some weaknesses in his NFL draft profile at nfl.com:
Click to expand...
He’s been praised for his accuracy through the first few days of OTAs.
Click to expand...
That is Cliff Booth his stunt double.
Click to expand...
In 2020, before the exodus of talent from
howell’s team, he was a 68.1% passer.

That’s > Josh Allen (56, 56.3%), > 2 of Hurts 4 (and only 1% off of his 2019 season), and literally > all 4 of Peyton Manning’s college seasons at TEN (61.8, 64.2, 63.9, 60.2)

Seems like he was a fairly accurate passer.
 
JohnnyU said:
greenmountaingoat said:
Win now 1QB orphan team #3- just wrapped up the draft. Got cute at 5.06 and grabbed an RB.. had been hoping Howell would make it out of the draft and onto waivers- he got picked at 5.11. I've got Geno and Kyler in that league so feeling OK-ish there but bummed that my game theory was a "swing and a miss." Offered a 24 5th and no dice. Hopefully won't regret that. That team is due for a crash and burn in the next couple of years anyway so bit of a NBD.... Had to keep all of my picks as a hedge against the wheels coming off the wagon there this year.

On top of that, does anyone really know that he's for sure starting? Jacoby was pretty effective last year and if Howell is screwing the pooch out there, can't imagine the leash is super long.
Click to expand...
If you feel that way about Howell and he was taken at 5.11, why didn't you offer a 2024 4th round rookie pick?
Click to expand...
It's a relatively short bench league and my team will fall apart quickly if things go wrong (in season 13 bench spots).
When Howell is on the field, I think he's going to be a ff producer. However I don't have confidence he's going to be the starter all year and even less so that he won't get drafted over next year.
 
greenmountaingoat said:
JohnnyU said:
greenmountaingoat said:
Win now 1QB orphan team #3- just wrapped up the draft. Got cute at 5.06 and grabbed an RB.. had been hoping Howell would make it out of the draft and onto waivers- he got picked at 5.11. I've got Geno and Kyler in that league so feeling OK-ish there but bummed that my game theory was a "swing and a miss." Offered a 24 5th and no dice. Hopefully won't regret that. That team is due for a crash and burn in the next couple of years anyway so bit of a NBD.... Had to keep all of my picks as a hedge against the wheels coming off the wagon there this year.

On top of that, does anyone really know that he's for sure starting? Jacoby was pretty effective last year and if Howell is screwing the pooch out there, can't imagine the leash is super long.
Click to expand...
If you feel that way about Howell and he was taken at 5.11, why didn't you offer a 2024 4th round rookie pick?
Click to expand...
It's a relatively short bench league and my team will fall apart quickly if things go wrong (in season 13 bench spots).
When Howell is on the field, I think he's going to be a ff producer. However I don't have confidence he's going to be the starter all year and even less so that he won't get drafted over next year.
Click to expand...
It would seem to me that if you were willing to offer a 24 5th, offering a 24 4th wouldn't have mattered that much and you may have gotten him.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
He wasn't an accurate passer in college. For example, here are some weaknesses in his NFL draft profile at nfl.com:
Click to expand...
He’s been praised for his accuracy through the first few days of OTAs.
Click to expand...

Ah, yes, the first few days of OTA reports, when every player looks like he is going to have a career year. :wink:

At this point, I'll trust 3 years of college (63.8%), one NFL preseason (62.3%), and one actual NFL game (57.9%). Those are lousy accuracy numbers in today's college and NFL football. There are some mitigating factors for his NFL performance to date -- rookie, limited attempts, etc.

I said that he has interesting potential, and perhaps he has gotten some quality NFL coaching on his passing mechanics since last year that will prove to help his accuracy. (Does the Washington coaching staff have the ability to provide quality coaching to its QBs?)

We'll see.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
JohnnyU said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
He wasn't an accurate passer in college. For example, here are some weaknesses in his NFL draft profile at nfl.com:
Click to expand...
He’s been praised for his accuracy through the first few days of OTAs.
Click to expand...
That is Cliff Booth his stunt double.
Click to expand...
In 2020, before the exodus of talent from
howell’s team, he was a 68.1% passer.

That’s > Josh Allen (56, 56.3%), > 2 of Hurts 4 (and only 1% off of his 2019 season), and literally > all 4 of Peyton Manning’s college seasons at TEN (61.8, 64.2, 63.9, 60.2)

Seems like he was a fairly accurate passer.
Click to expand...

You should probably recognize that you are reaching when you are comparing passing accuracy data for a player in 2020 to a player in 1994-1997. I assume you are aware that the college passing game has changed a lot since then...
 
ffmail4me said:
Actually he has some inaccurate throws in OTAs. But he's shown a lot of very positive things too. Definitely the best QB prospect we've had in several seasons.
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Of course - that’s what OTAs are for. Workin out the kinks.

He’s throwing to his RBs quite a bit from what I’ve read. That bodes well, IMO. Good FF QBs make those bunny throws. Also shows me he’s not always looking to run, which I often worry about with running QBs.
 
TripItUp said:
Howell is definitely a wait and see, but he has these factors going for him.

- New O Coordinator and system
- awesome receivers and Antonio Gibson
- good offensive line
- Washington coaches obviously believe in him

There is enough here to justify being bullish on Howell IMHO.
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I agree there are some positives. This post made me curious, so I looked at the PFF team grades (regular and postseason) last season. Here is where Washington finished:
  • Overall - 77.2, #23
    • Offense - 67.6, #27
      • Passing - 53.4, #30
      • Receiving - 75.1, #15
      • Pass Blocking - 61.7, tied for #26
      • Run Blocking - 55.6, #24
      • Running - 77.2, tied for #24
    • Defense - 74.2, #13
      • Run Defense - 61.1, #20
      • Tackling - 68.0, #10
      • Pass Rush - 71.9, #13
      • Coverage - 83.1, #8
    • Special Teams - 90.4, #2
The passing performance was terrible, so the bar is low for Howell to be an improvement, especially since this reinforces the targets are good.

The pass blocking and run blocking were bad, which didn't help their QBs and RBs last season. However, they upgraded their OL in free agency and the draft.

No one should be surprised that a Ron Rivera team would have its strengths in defense and special teams, not offense. Looking at their offseason moves, the defense should be very good again. As you point out, new OC Bienemy could help the offense.

Signing Brissett was better for Howell than many other alternatives, but he is a capable backup. Rivera could be on the hot seat and thus could feel pressure to move the Brissett if Howell falters. That is really the only negative I see at this point.
 
TripItUp said:
Just Win Baby said:
The pass blocking and run blocking were bad, which didn't help their QBs and RBs last season. However, they upgraded their OL in free agency and the draft.
Click to expand...

Almost all the O Line grades I have seen rate them as an above average as a unit.
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For clarification, the PFF team grades I cited are for the entire offense, not just OL. Obviously, OL would contribute the most to that, but it isn't exclusive to that unit.

PFF's final 2022 season OL ranking had them at #20.

Football Outsiders ranked them #23 in Adjusted Line Yards and #23 in Adjusted Sack Rate in 2022.

As of May 5, Pro Football Network ranked them #26 for 2023.

Like I said, they have upgraded this offseason, so they should be better. I don't think I would go so far as to assert that they have a "good offensive line" at this point, though.

:shrug:
 
Just Win Baby said:
For clarification, the PFF team grades I cited are for the entire offense, not just OL. Obviously, OL would contribute the most to that, but it isn't exclusive to that unit.

PFF's final 2022 season OL ranking had them at #20.

Football Outsiders ranked them #23 in Adjusted Line Yards and #23 in Adjusted Sack Rate in 2022.

As of May 5, Pro Football Network ranked them #26 for 2023.

Like I said, they have upgraded this offseason, so they should be better. I don't think I would go so far as to assert that they have a "good offensive line" at this point, though.

:shrug:
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was speaking more to the 2023 forward looking rankings.

Regardless, the perception that the Redskins have a below average line is one of several factors working in favor of Howell being undervalued IMHO

That being said I don't pretend to be an OL expert and largely rely on rankings such as the ones you provided.
 
ffmail4me said:
I think the only thing that can derail the Howell train is if he's just a turnover machine. I know he's going to make some big plays with his arms and legs. If he can just limit the turnovers I really like his upside. I love his weapons.
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This exactly. We’re both Skins fan and I’m sure you’re hearing what I’m hearing, which is they genuinely want Howell to be the guy for at least this year. After that literally everything with the team is up in the air with the new Harris regime, but all reporting indicates they legitimately like Howell and want him to grab this job. They’re realists though also and know they can’t afford a terrible season so Brissette is there to keep it from going off the rails. I agree with your main point which that turnovers are the main route for that happening. Hopefully it doesn’t make him overly conservative, but as long as he doesn’t meltdown it’s probably his job.
 
Da Franchise said:
Eh, I think that’s just a motivational ploy. He’d have to fall on his face not to get the nod coming out of camp.
Click to expand...
Better rosters than Washington’s went nowhere with Brissett under center. Going with Brissett would be a ridiculously bad decision for the franchise unless Howell was to completely fall on his face.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Da Franchise said:
Eh, I think that’s just a motivational ploy. He’d have to fall on his face not to get the nod coming out of camp.
Click to expand...
Better rosters than Washington’s went nowhere with Brissett under center. Going with Brissett would be a ridiculously bad decision for the franchise unless Howell was to completely fall on his face.
Click to expand...

Definitely agree. I’m just taking Ron’s personal motivations into account. He’s probably toast either way but he simply cannot afford a losing season. Coaching with a gun to your head can lead to irrational decisions.
 
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