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QB Tiers Article (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
and a request for more - including IDP.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I like it a lot, even though I disagree with some of it. Please do for other positions and IDP - but do you plan on going DL/LB/DB or just one long article?
With IDP, do you plan to collaborate with anyone? I love your stuff, but Jene's input would be valuable there IMO. Perhaps a quasi-face-off with IDP tiers.
With IDP, do you plan to collaborate with anyone? I love your stuff, but Jene's input would be valuable there IMO. Perhaps a quasi-face-off with IDP tiers.
supermark_28
Footballguy
Sig,this time of year it's either look at fantasy football or work,so heck yeah the more the better!
Sigmund,When you are referencing the round in which they should be drafted in, what size league are you looking at?
Sorry, should have made that clear - Im assuming 12 team leagues, same as the default for the rankings.
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
You know how this question will be answered.
NattyDread
Footballguy
Absolutely, please continue. Rankings are great and all, but the underlying rationales provide the real value.
A
awesomeness
Guest
IDP tiers would be awesome.
obxlegends
Footballguy
You should be banned from asking that question ever again.
I always enjoy reading your opinions, Mr. Bloom. Keep them coming, please!
Cool - I just wasn't sure if the organization, etc, worked well - please feel free to offer any criticism that could improve the RB,WR,TE, and IDP installments. If time allows i'll do dynasty tiers by the end of the summer.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
What, you couldn't drop Shaub down a tier and make it Matt x4??? 
Great stuff...keep it up. Only criticism would be that you should make it clear in your writeup that your talking about a twelve team redraft with fairly standard scoring.
teamramrod
Footballguy
Absolutely not. Please stop cluttering the boards with this garbage. It makes it hard to find the article on winning percentage by uniform color.
Peace
Peace
Love, love, love it. At this stage of my preparation, I like tiering players. Once the tiers are set, then I like adding in projections, etc. So it's great to have your perspective on tiers.
One thing you may want to add: comparison to the consensus FBG expert rankings. Would be nice to see how your tiers match up with the average of the experts. On the QBs, it's right on.
One thing you may want to add: comparison to the consensus FBG expert rankings. Would be nice to see how your tiers match up with the average of the experts. On the QBs, it's right on.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Good list.
One thing I'm surprised with though is how low you have Trent Edwards. I think the "game manager" criticism has been shown to be false. It feels like a lot of QBs who fell into that category have blown up when they've had better targets or moved to a better coach/coordinator/team. Owens' QB has been pretty huge over his career, and that's before you look at Evans and an improved Josh Reed.
One thing I'm surprised with though is how low you have Trent Edwards. I think the "game manager" criticism has been shown to be false. It feels like a lot of QBs who fell into that category have blown up when they've had better targets or moved to a better coach/coordinator/team. Owens' QB has been pretty huge over his career, and that's before you look at Evans and an improved Josh Reed.
I really enjoy the tiers too as I am not someone who brings the computer with me when I draft. I have my projections and cheatsheets of course, but there is just something simple about the tiers and if you are not using DD at a draft, cheatsheets will only get you so far w/o something to use as a baseline like tiers (i.e. after I pick, it goes 6 more before it swings back to me...do I have to pick that RB now or can I wait on it).
stevegamer
Footballguy
Please do IDP tiers next. Why?
Simply because we IDP'ers are sick of being the red-headed step child of the fantasy world. It's the future, so come on and embrace it.
Plus it gives people thing in a very non-standard order. If you don't do IDP next, bust out TE's.
Simply because we IDP'ers are sick of being the red-headed step child of the fantasy world. It's the future, so come on and embrace it.
Plus it gives people thing in a very non-standard order. If you don't do IDP next, bust out TE's.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
How about TD next, that would be a nice curve ball.Jene Bramel said:stevegamer said:
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
How does Brady end up having to share a tier with 2 other guys?edit ps
I think the last time I 'spot started' Delhomme he put up 98 yards against Detroit.
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Bluesbomber
Footballguy
I love me some buckets. Very nice job. More please.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You think he should be in tier 2 by himself?
Fonz31
Footballguy
Come on, we need to see where your mad man love for Chris Johnson stacks up against the rest of the stud RBs
PewterFan
Footballguy
Really good read and format. Can't wait to see what you got for the other key offensive positions.
I think ranking LB's is your strength in IDP's, so I'm definitely looking forward to reading that as well, should you decide to do it.
Do you consider ranking DL's a strength of yours? If not, maybe you can collaborate with Jene or someoe else?
Ranking DB's is probably the hardest position, so good luck with that.
The only constructive criticism I can come up with is you should take advantage of the 'Enter' key when putting together a paragraph.
Instead of:
You have to put Rodgers at the top because his situation and supporting cast is unchanged, and he should only improve in his second season as a starter. In fact, with a repeat of a 2008, Rodgers will join the first tier of QBs (you could argue he has already). The only real question is how much you can trust a QB with only one year of starting experience under his belt. Warner has had offseason hip surgery. He is old (38 in June) and has only played all 16 games three times in his career (in his defense, he finished each one of those seasons in the Super Bowl). McNabb is the best risk/reward pick. His past is filled with exploded land mines like inconsistent play and season-ending injuries, but he gained a possible stud left tackle and a speed demon at WR in April. He looked like McNabb of old in the playoffs. Rivers comes fourth because it's hard to expect a QB to throw 30+ TDs on only 30 attempts a game. He could easily experience a Ben Roethlisberger-esque regression to the mean this year, especially if the Chargers can stop the pass better with the return of Shawne Merriman or establish a better running game. Romo is the one everyone is leaving for dead. He lost TO and is gaining a reputation of a QB that fades down the stretch.
Go with:
You have to put Rodgers at the top because his situation and supporting cast is unchanged, and he should only improve in his second season as a starter. In fact, with a repeat of a 2008, Rodgers will join the first tier of QBs (you could argue he has already). The only real question is how much you can trust a QB with only one year of starting experience under his belt.
Warner has had offseason hip surgery. He is old (38 in June) and has only played all 16 games three times in his career (in his defense, he finished each one of those seasons in the Super Bowl).
McNabb is the best risk/reward pick. His past is filled with exploded land mines like inconsistent play and season-ending injuries, but he gained a possible stud left tackle and a speed demon at WR in April. He looked like McNabb of old in the playoffs.
Rivers comes fourth because it's hard to expect a QB to throw 30+ TDs on only 30 attempts a game. He could easily experience a Ben Roethlisberger-esque regression to the mean this year, especially if the Chargers can stop the pass better with the return of Shawne Merriman or establish a better running game.
Romo is the one everyone is leaving for dead. He lost TO and is gaining a reputation of a QB that fades down the stretch.
^This is easier on the eyes IMO.
I think ranking LB's is your strength in IDP's, so I'm definitely looking forward to reading that as well, should you decide to do it.
Do you consider ranking DL's a strength of yours? If not, maybe you can collaborate with Jene or someoe else?
Ranking DB's is probably the hardest position, so good luck with that.
The only constructive criticism I can come up with is you should take advantage of the 'Enter' key when putting together a paragraph.
Instead of:
You have to put Rodgers at the top because his situation and supporting cast is unchanged, and he should only improve in his second season as a starter. In fact, with a repeat of a 2008, Rodgers will join the first tier of QBs (you could argue he has already). The only real question is how much you can trust a QB with only one year of starting experience under his belt. Warner has had offseason hip surgery. He is old (38 in June) and has only played all 16 games three times in his career (in his defense, he finished each one of those seasons in the Super Bowl). McNabb is the best risk/reward pick. His past is filled with exploded land mines like inconsistent play and season-ending injuries, but he gained a possible stud left tackle and a speed demon at WR in April. He looked like McNabb of old in the playoffs. Rivers comes fourth because it's hard to expect a QB to throw 30+ TDs on only 30 attempts a game. He could easily experience a Ben Roethlisberger-esque regression to the mean this year, especially if the Chargers can stop the pass better with the return of Shawne Merriman or establish a better running game. Romo is the one everyone is leaving for dead. He lost TO and is gaining a reputation of a QB that fades down the stretch.
Go with:
You have to put Rodgers at the top because his situation and supporting cast is unchanged, and he should only improve in his second season as a starter. In fact, with a repeat of a 2008, Rodgers will join the first tier of QBs (you could argue he has already). The only real question is how much you can trust a QB with only one year of starting experience under his belt.
Warner has had offseason hip surgery. He is old (38 in June) and has only played all 16 games three times in his career (in his defense, he finished each one of those seasons in the Super Bowl).
McNabb is the best risk/reward pick. His past is filled with exploded land mines like inconsistent play and season-ending injuries, but he gained a possible stud left tackle and a speed demon at WR in April. He looked like McNabb of old in the playoffs.
Rivers comes fourth because it's hard to expect a QB to throw 30+ TDs on only 30 attempts a game. He could easily experience a Ben Roethlisberger-esque regression to the mean this year, especially if the Chargers can stop the pass better with the return of Shawne Merriman or establish a better running game.
Romo is the one everyone is leaving for dead. He lost TO and is gaining a reputation of a QB that fades down the stretch.
^This is easier on the eyes IMO.
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PewterFan
Footballguy
Tick
Footballguy
I'd most want to see IDP.
See if you can get any of the other IDP guys to do the same - it'd be interesting to see where everyone sees the tier breaks. Often, it can look like a wide gap when someone has a guy 7th and another has him 13th, but both guys might agree that both players are in the same tier.
See if you can get any of the other IDP guys to do the same - it'd be interesting to see where everyone sees the tier breaks. Often, it can look like a wide gap when someone has a guy 7th and another has him 13th, but both guys might agree that both players are in the same tier.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Nice work. I love tiers. And I agree with pretty much all the rankings.
But, seriously,
1. Brees
2. P. Manning
3. Brady
You have this is reverse order imo. Brady's upside and Bree's downside are the things that stick out in this tier...
Ranking Tier 2 is pretty much guesswork, so I'll GUESS
Warner - is the same system gonna be in place with a new O coordinator? If so, similar production
McNabb - swan song?
Rivers
Rodgers
Romo
I'd feel much better about re-drafting Warner or McNabb than I would the other 3, but that's just gutwork. There a CHANCE Romo is an absolute train wreck this year (mark it down and such).
But, seriously,
1. Brees
2. P. Manning
3. Brady
You have this is reverse order imo. Brady's upside and Bree's downside are the things that stick out in this tier...
Ranking Tier 2 is pretty much guesswork, so I'll GUESS
Warner - is the same system gonna be in place with a new O coordinator? If so, similar production
McNabb - swan song?
Rivers
Rodgers
Romo
I'd feel much better about re-drafting Warner or McNabb than I would the other 3, but that's just gutwork. There a CHANCE Romo is an absolute train wreck this year (mark it down and such).
I totally agree that Brady becomes #1 as the season approaches - I wrote this before he practiced, I would almost consider moving him up on that alone, but you still want to see him in something like game action, just in case. Once he's cleared he'll be #1 in the tier.
sholditch
Footballguy
ON the first two tiers, I think you're about a round too late on when to strike. All of tier 1 will be gone by round three in most leagues. All leagues I play in. Same with tier 2. Those runs will start in the fifth or even fourth, and be about done by the end of the sixth. JMO.
I agree with you - the "sweet spot" is guidance as to when getting the last member of the tier is a value that you shouldn't pass up.I think the ideal QB draft strategy is to wait and grab two of Cutler/Palmer/Schaub/Garrard/Cassel - whichever ones end up being the best value. However, if you have the chance to take a tier 1 QB in round 3, scrap that plan and go for it. Same with tier 2 and the mid 5th or later.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
For those looking for a discussion of IDP tiers:
Sig and I often go back and forth on draft strategy, ranking philosophy and tiers. We're in the planning stages of a stream-of-consciousness set of installments on each IDP position. We're hoping it'll work out as a fun read and will post the installments as they're posted to the site.
Stay tuned.
Sig and I often go back and forth on draft strategy, ranking philosophy and tiers. We're in the planning stages of a stream-of-consciousness set of installments on each IDP position. We're hoping it'll work out as a fun read and will post the installments as they're posted to the site.
Stay tuned.
obxlegends
Footballguy
You've just made my day. Looking forward to it.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I won't say you're wrong, in all honestly I can see taking these 3 in any order (which makes them a perfect tier), but what do you mean by Brees's downside? He isn't getting worse WRs this year, they're not over the hill, and it's unlikely that they run a whole lot more. Brady certainly has the best upside, but IMO Brees has the highest floor (mostly due to some minor injury questions with Brady). I would take over Peyton.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
I'm all for you doing more work that I get to benefit from for, basically, nothing. Hop to!! 
Seriously, I'm pretty interested to get any and all takes on IDP tiers, particularly yours and Jene's. I'm probably going to be joining my first IDP dynasty league this season so I've been in "info gathering" mode for a bit now anyway. This would dovetail nicely with that.
Seriously, I'm pretty interested to get any and all takes on IDP tiers, particularly yours and Jene's. I'm probably going to be joining my first IDP dynasty league this season so I've been in "info gathering" mode for a bit now anyway. This would dovetail nicely with that.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I thought about this after my prior post and could be talked into taking Brees over Manning, but to answer your question, NO has yet to demonstrate that it can field a defense, which is a mixed blessing (more passing stats to catch up BUT face the prospects of other teams playing keep away). Bree's downside is really a criticism of the Saints defense, not of Brees or the offense.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
For those interested in the IDP positional tiers, our first article (DL) is posted and I've opened a discussion thread in the IDP forum, too. The LB and DB articles will be posted in the IDP Forum as we finish them and they're posted to the site.
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Tanner9919
Footballguy
great tier listing!one caveat:
Garrard being included in the "Studs IF..." is mind-boggling...
he belongs about 5 tiers below that...he tossed 15 tds to 13 int's last season, am I missing something here?
the guy is Joe Average..he should never be included in any conversation involving the 3rd Tier of QBs..
Palmer,Cutler,Shaub
Garrard 
gianmarco
Footballguy
Yes, I think you are. So you're looking at just one year. I'll do the same and point out he had 18 TDs and 3 INTs in only 12 games the year before that. So which is the real Garrard? 18/3 (prorated to 24/4) or 15/13 or something in between? Now factor in his O-line was completely trashed last year due to injury. Now factor in his "potential" WR upgrades (it's arguable, but I think they are improved). And finally factor in his rushing ability (>300 yds and 2 TDs last year) and you've got a guy that could unspectacularly finish right around the top 5.great tier listing!one caveat:
Garrard being included in the "Studs IF..." is mind-boggling...
he belongs about 5 tiers below that...he tossed 15 tds to 13 int's last season, am I missing something here?
the guy is Joe Average..he should never be included in any conversation involving the 3rd Tier of QBs..
Palmer,Cutler,Shaub
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buddyboy
Footballguy
Nice you produced an IDP for the minority that play in thoes leagues. Interesting read even though I do not play in leagues that use IDPs.
I really enjoyed the QB tier article. I'm guessing since there have been no more articles for the skill positions in the last three weeks that RB, WR and TE tiers will only be available to paying customers?
I really enjoyed the QB tier article. I'm guessing since there have been no more articles for the skill positions in the last three weeks that RB, WR and TE tiers will only be available to paying customers?