QBs outside of the Studs (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

One of the strategies I keep toying with for my upcoming drafts is whether to secure a top 7 QB or not.

We all know the deal...the guy you just plug in and generally speaking don't have to worry about. You know what you're getting and barring injury - it's good. But you have to take him in the early rounds of the draft.

Or the wait at QB approach...get someone outside the top 7, who probably won't do as well, and perhaps there will be WSIS debates in your head if you have more than one, but you get to load up a little extra early on, on the RBs/WRs.

As I debate it, I keep coming to the same question: which non-top7 QB would I target?

So after the following are gone: Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers (listed in ADP order), which of those remaining do you feel will be the best FF QB? Please vote, but also explain why. Should be interesting.

 

[Child Please]

Cutlers interceptions scare me. Especially in the Martz system where they are bound to increase. McNabb always misses time and Farve is 41 years old.

Ryan and Eli are probably the safest bets on a consistent basis. I'd pair one of them with Cutler/Farve/McNabb and play the matchups. Kolb is also very interesting, its not talked about much but wasnt Schaub in a similar situation in Atlanta? He got traded instead of taking over there, but still he was an obvious backup talent in the leauge that was meant to start. If that relationship is close with the targets and passing offense Philly deploys Kolb could be the best bet out of these guys.

 

[Exit 1]

Is there a QB tandem thread out there based on their respective schedules?

 

[Child Please]

If you are a FBG subscriber there is a QBBC report based on schedules and projections.

 

[Chaka]

Big Ben will out perform many of the top 7 guys over the final 12 weeks of the season.

 

[zadok]

I voted Flacco. I think he has a monster year.

 

[JMJ]

Favre, Kolb, Cutler, Eli.

In that order.

 

[Bayhawks]

One of the strategies I keep toying with for my upcoming drafts is whether to secure a top 7 QB or not.We all know the deal...the guy you just plug in and generally speaking don't have to worry about. You know what you're getting and barring injury - it's good. But you have to take him in the early rounds of the draft.Or the wait at QB approach...get someone outside the top 7, who probably won't do as well, and perhaps there will be WSIS debates in your head if you have more than one, but you get to load up a little extra early on, on the RBs/WRs.As I debate it, I keep coming to the same question: which non-top7 QB would I target?So after the following are gone: Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers (listed in ADP order), which of those remaining do you feel will be the best FF QB? Please vote, but also explain why. Should be interesting.

Personally, I like Flacco and Roethlisberger. They don't have the same pick cost associated with them as Cutler, Kolb, or Ryan. You should be able to get Flacco in the 9th, and Roethlisberger in the 10th. The other guys are going in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds.

 

[ldizzle]

here is a qbbc grid showing good qb tandems at FFToolbox

 

[skillz]

Favre, Kolb, Cutler, Eli.In that order.

This is how I have it too. Favre is the "safest" option IMO. Has a ton of weapons, plays every game, and I also like his playoff schedule more. Kolb and Cutler will be in pass happy offenses, but I like Kolb due to the better receiving weapons and, as others have said, I think Cutler throws a ton of INTs. Eli is last because I see the Giants becoming a more run first team this season. His numbers regress a bit. I would be happy with anyone but Eli as my No. 1 though in a 12 teamer.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

A little surprised at how well Cutler is doing in this poll. To those of you that voted for him, did you own him last year? I am betting that those that had him last year are NOT the ones voting for him. 1:1 ratio (practically) of TDs:INTs.

To those of you voting for him, why? You love Martz? You think he just needed a year under his belt on his new team? What is it specifically?

Just asking b/c as an owner of Cutler last year, he was tough to stomach. He had 900 fewer yards in Chicago then he had in Denver, to go along with 8 more interceptions.

What troubles me about him is the lack of consistency. In standard scoring, he had 1 week last year of 15 - 20 points. He had 8 games under 15 (including 3 in single digits); and 7 games over 20.

And there was no such thing as momentum with him. He followed up his best game of the season last year (week 9 against AZ) of 369 yards, 3 tds, 1 int, 17 rushing yds...with zero tds the following week against SF.

Just playing devil's advocate here. I am really considering not grabbing a top 7 QB this year, but don't know which 1-2 guys to target if I hold off.

 

[Dr. Malo]

One QB that is flying well under the radar is Kyle Orton. He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year. He was playing on 2 bum ankles, and a broken finger, in a brand new system. This year he is 100% healthy and knows the system. This same offense under the same coach put up record numbers in 2007 with New England. McDaniels is saying that Orton isn't making any mistakes and 100% of the time puts them in the right play and goes to the right guy with the ball. He is crisp and efficient in camp, as well as in preseason. He is making no mistakes and has a plethora of targets and wide receivers to throw the ball to.

He isn't being drafted, so he will outperform his ADP. You can easily pick him up off waivers. I am sure he will outscore Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Favre, big Ben, Flacco, Ryan, etc. He can easily break into the top 10 (he just has to move up 4 sopts from last year, which is easy). I can even see him finishing in the top 5 or 6. He will have over 4000 yards passing and over 30 TDs. It will be an interesting year.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

One QB that is flying well under the radar is Kyle Orton. He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year. He was playing on 2 bum ankles, and a broken finger, in a brand new system. This year he is 100% healthy and knows the system. This same offense under the same coach put up record numbers in 2007 with New England. McDaniels is saying that Orton isn't making any mistakes and 100% of the time puts them in the right play and goes to the right guy with the ball. He is crisp and efficient in camp, as well as in preseason. He is making no mistakes and has a plethora of targets and wide receivers to throw the ball to.

He isn't being drafted, so he will outperform his ADP. You can easily pick him up off waivers. I am sure he will outscore Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Favre, big Ben, Flacco, Ryan, etc. He can easily break into the top 10 (he just has to move up 4 sopts from last year, which is easy). I can even see him finishing in the top 5 or 6. He will have over 4000 yards passing and over 30 TDs. It will be an interesting year.

He lost a top 10 WR and Scheffler.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Kolb in 2nd here. Does his end of year schedule scare you if you voted for him?

Week 14 - at Dallas

Week 15 - at NYG

Week 16 - Minny

All three of these teams may have a lot to play for at that point.

 

[Dr. Malo]

He lost a top 10 WR and Scheffler.

Scheffler never really played much in the current offense. it's not a TE heavy offense. BM is being replaced by a multitude of WRs. Further, once Demaryious Thomas is healthy, he is the new BM. He is the same size, but runs a sub 4.3 forty. BM could never run that fast. He makes amazing catches, runs well after the catch, and has amazing body control and fluidity. A guy like BM isn't easily replaced, but the ball will be spread around more now, like Brady does in New England.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Surprised to see Ryan doing so poorly here. I see Philip Rivers type career arc. I'd be very surprised if he didn't have a very good year. Don't think he comes with much downside either.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

One QB that is flying well under the radar is Kyle Orton. He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year. He was playing on 2 bum ankles, and a broken finger, in a brand new system. This year he is 100% healthy and knows the system. This same offense under the same coach put up record numbers in 2007 with New England. McDaniels is saying that Orton isn't making any mistakes and 100% of the time puts them in the right play and goes to the right guy with the ball. He is crisp and efficient in camp, as well as in preseason. He is making no mistakes and has a plethora of targets and wide receivers to throw the ball to.

He isn't being drafted, so he will outperform his ADP. You can easily pick him up off waivers. I am sure he will outscore Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Favre, big Ben, Flacco, Ryan, etc. He can easily break into the top 10 (he just has to move up 4 sopts from last year, which is easy). I can even see him finishing in the top 5 or 6. He will have over 4000 yards passing and over 30 TDs. It will be an interesting year.

Orton might be a good QB2 for a pinch start nothing elsehe will not outscore Eli,Cutler or Favre barring injury

 

[saintsfan1977]

One QB that is flying well under the radar is Kyle Orton. He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year. He was playing on 2 bum ankles, and a broken finger, in a brand new system. This year he is 100% healthy and knows the system. This same offense under the same coach put up record numbers in 2007 with New England. McDaniels is saying that Orton isn't making any mistakes and 100% of the time puts them in the right play and goes to the right guy with the ball. He is crisp and efficient in camp, as well as in preseason. He is making no mistakes and has a plethora of targets and wide receivers to throw the ball to.

He isn't being drafted, so he will outperform his ADP. You can easily pick him up off waivers. I am sure he will outscore Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Favre, big Ben, Flacco, Ryan, etc. He can easily break into the top 10 (he just has to move up 4 sopts from last year, which is easy). I can even see him finishing in the top 5 or 6. He will have over 4000 yards passing and over 30 TDs. It will be an interesting year.

Ok but who is he going to throw to? I drafted Eddie Royal last year who should have had a good year but was Bust of the Year. I doubt he replaces what Denver had with B.Marshall. Royal was the No. 2 guy and didnt get many looks. Some games he had 7+ targets and would go for 0 catches. I rather take my chances with Cutler who will air the ball out, has a stronger arm, and better weapons IMO. I would have to live with his sometimes bad decision making but I know I can get possibly better production this year with him.In my league Cutler had 10 ff points better than Orton with no clear No.1 WR. I am not saying Chicago is stacked by any means but one more year with this offense and better understanding of his wideouts should drop his INts some. I might not draft Cutler but if I wait long enough to grab a QB and he is the best of the rest I will take him.

 

[Nagle2998]

If I'm not getting one of the top 7 then I'm going to go with the safest guy and to me that's Eli he doesn't miss games and his Wr will be even better this year with Nicks over Manningham. I'm also not as high on his running game and I think they could be throwing just as much as last year. If I was more of a gambler I would go with someone like Cutler or Kolb but again the safe pick IMO is Eli.

 

[Dr. Malo]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.

In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.

You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

 

[Marauder]

A little surprised at how well Cutler is doing in this poll. To those of you that voted for him, did you own him last year? I am betting that those that had him last year are NOT the ones voting for him. 1:1 ratio (practically) of TDs:INTs.To those of you voting for him, why? You love Martz? You think he just needed a year under his belt on his new team? What is it specifically?Just asking b/c as an owner of Cutler last year, he was tough to stomach. He had 900 fewer yards in Chicago then he had in Denver, to go along with 8 more interceptions.What troubles me about him is the lack of consistency. In standard scoring, he had 1 week last year of 15 - 20 points. He had 8 games under 15 (including 3 in single digits); and 7 games over 20.And there was no such thing as momentum with him. He followed up his best game of the season last year (week 9 against AZ) of 369 yards, 3 tds, 1 int, 17 rushing yds...with zero tds the following week against SF.Just playing devil's advocate here. I am really considering not grabbing a top 7 QB this year, but don't know which 1-2 guys to target if I hold off.

I owned Cutler last year in most of my big money leagues (and I was obviously very disappointed) but I voted for him here.One of the things I took out of my lessons learned analysis this year was that I tend to draft players a year too early then avoid them the following year only to see them break out. I've done this over and over again over the years.I think the Martz offense suits Cutler well and all the reports are that he has really taken to it. In addition, another year with the young receivers will make a huge difference. I'm willing to roll the dice with him once again.

 

[Rick James]

If I don't take a top 7 QB early (1st-4th/5th round), then I'm going to spend the first 7 rounds drafting RB/WR/maybeTE

Kolb is gone in 5/6

Flacco is all over the place, but I've seen him go right after Kolb. but if he's there in 8 I'd probably take him over Ryan.

I like Cutler but he's gone in 6/7

To me this is a toss-up between Ryan and Manning. I chose Ryan because I think the offense is better, and also I flilpped a coin.

 

[Rick James]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.

In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.

You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

Not to be mean, but you are out of your damn mind. Orton's FLOOR is 4000/32?

 

[kellumsboys]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

look at Orton's first 4 games and pair him with Big Ben .................

 

[DoubleG]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.

In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.

You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

Not to be mean, but you are out of your damn mind. Orton's FLOOR is 4000/32?

Apparently he didn't realize that only 3 QBs had more than 30 passing TDs last year - Manning, Favre (both of whom tossed 33) and Brees (who threw 34), while Orton threw 21, which incidentally, was his career high.

 

[the spanker]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

I can't believe I'm beginning to like what your smoking. Orton could very well based on what your saying PLUS this guy isn't even being drafted. Plus he plays the against the weak AFC West and NFC West. I remember I took Warner in the last round of my draft a few years ago when he wasn't even starting and he took me to a Super Bowl.Is it the second hand smoke? But I believe you!

 

[the spanker]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.

In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.

You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

Not to be mean, but you are out of your damn mind. Orton's FLOOR is 4000/32?

Apparently he didn't realize that only 3 QBs had more than 30 passing TDs last year - Manning, Favre (both of whom tossed 33) and Brees (who threw 34), while Orton threw 21, which incidentally, was his career high.

Orton was banged up and learning a new system last year. While 32 is very optimistic i can see him putting up between 25-27 TD production from a guy not even being drafted?How can you beat that?

 

[Rick James]

Only 3 times last year did a WR have over 200 yards receiving per game... Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton was the passer both times.

In the last game of the year, when BM was suspended, Gaffney had over 200 yards and was Orton's primary target. He will be the new Number 1 receiver. Royal will be the slot guy and understands the offense better. He is the Wes Welker of this offense. You have Brandon Lloyd playing opposite of Gaffney. You have a few nice pass catching TEs, you have RBs that can catch, and you have nice rookie WR, that will be tremendous, once they start to contribute. The offense this year will be to spread out 5 playmakers, and get the ball to the right guy. No defense can cover 5 highly skilled players well, that will be the offense tihs year.

You guys are going to regret not picking up Orton. He will vastly outperform Cutler and the others. You will get about 250+ yards per game a 2TDs per game guaranteed. That's his baseline. He will have plenty of games where he surpasses those numbers. This is a pass first offense with a lot of weapons.

Not to be mean, but you are out of your damn mind. Orton's FLOOR is 4000/32?

Apparently he didn't realize that only 3 QBs had more than 30 passing TDs last year - Manning, Favre (both of whom tossed 33) and Brees (who threw 34), while Orton threw 21, which incidentally, was his career high.

Orton was banged up and learning a new system last year. While 32 is very optimistic i can see him putting up between 25-27 TD production from a guy not even being drafted?How can you beat that?

I mean, sure. But there's just as good a chance that Orton throws 21 TDs or less this year, especially after losing Brandon Marshall and his career high being 21.

 

[Chaka]

The Broncos have suffered a slew of injuries at RB and all along the O-line. Their current WRs are a journeyman that for some reason people have high hopes for and a third year possession receiver. They have no TE to speak of. Their two rookie WRs could be something special but unless you think they are the Randy Moss type of special I wouldn't count on them doing much to help Orton's numbers (at least not in the first half of the season).

 

[shadyridr]

Why does everyone keep thinking the Giants are gonna start running the ball with ease again? Their oline is worse and Jacobs is a twinkle toes. I think Manning can put up 4000+ and 25+ again with ease and they have some talented WRs (and a full year of Nicks). I find it funny, Nicks & Smith are both going around round 4 yet nobody thinks Eli will finish top 12.

 

[[icon]]

He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year.

I think we have different takes on what the word "Amazing" means.

 

[shadyridr]

If I'm not getting one of the top 7 then I'm going to go with the safest guy and to me that's Eli he doesn't miss games and his Wr will be even better this year with Nicks over Manningham. I'm also not as high on his running game and I think they could be throwing just as much as last year. If I was more of a gambler I would go with someone like Cutler or Kolb but again the safe pick IMO is Eli.

 

[the spanker]

The Broncos have suffered a slew of injuries at RB and all along the O-line. Their current WRs are a journeyman that for some reason people have high hopes for and a third year possession receiver. They have no TE to speak of. Their two rookie WRs could be something special but unless you think they are the Randy Moss type of special I wouldn't count on them doing much to help Orton's numbers (at least not in the first half of the season).

Moreno should be healthy by the start of the season. O-line banged up? I haven't heard that. None of the teams defenses in the AFC West or NFC West scare anyone with the exception of SanFran so Denver's WRs will be just fine. We are taking QBBC so take a solid guy Ryan, Eli, Flacco or Big Ben and take Orton with the last pick of the draft. If he busts so what? You got him for pennies on the dollar but if he pans out there's nothing but upside here IMHO.

 

[gpthatsme]

Favre, Kolb, Cutler, Eli.

In that order.

This is how I have it too. Favre is the "safest" option IMO. Has a ton of weapons, plays every game, and I also like his playoff schedule more. Kolb and Cutler will be in pass happy offenses, but I like Kolb due to the better receiving weapons and, as others have said, I think Cutler throws a ton of INTs. Eli is last because I see the Giants becoming a more run first team this season. His numbers regress a bit. I would be happy with anyone but Eli as my No. 1 though in a 12 teamer.

An already hobbled 40 year old QB, who is getting chased and tackled by 24 year old's in their prime, is the "safest" option? I'm not arguing his potential based on opportunity, I'm arguing his risk. He is faaarrrr from safe... Heck, he may not even make it that juicy playoff schedule. He's a huge risk/reward play in my opinion. If I don't land a top QB, I don't know that Favre is my target unless I am immediately following him up with another low-end QB1/high-end QB2. I just wouldn't feel safe with him and would rather grab two other QBs for my QBBC and use the spot where Favre is going to grab another depth pick.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Why not more support for Joe Flacco? He was putting up great numbers last season before his injury. Add another year of experience and the addition of Anquan Bolden and he could be a stud.

 

[Chaka]

The Broncos have suffered a slew of injuries at RB and all along the O-line. Their current WRs are a journeyman that for some reason people have high hopes for and a third year possession receiver. They have no TE to speak of. Their two rookie WRs could be something special but unless you think they are the Randy Moss type of special I wouldn't count on them doing much to help Orton's numbers (at least not in the first half of the season).

Moreno should be healthy by the start of the season. O-line banged up? I haven't heard that. None of the teams defenses in the AFC West or NFC West scare anyone with the exception of SanFran so Denver's WRs will be just fine. We are taking QBBC so take a solid guy Ryan, Eli, Flacco or Big Ben and take Orton with the last pick of the draft. If he busts so what? You got him for pennies on the dollar but if he pans out there's nothing but upside here IMHO.

Starting LT Ryan Clady had a partially torn patella tendon in April while playing basketball and the Broncos don't expect him back until Aug 30th at the earliest. Starting RT Ryan Harris is recovering from toe surgery. Starting RG Chris Kuper injured his ankle of Aug 6th.It's not devastating but it isn't encouraging either.

ETA: Both rookie WRs are dinged up too.

 

[sgtrobo]

Brandon Marshall is a monster. Cutler's problem has as much to do with losing him as it does moving to the windy city

the idea that Kyle Orton will even SNIFF 30+ TDs and 4000 yards is crazy

yeah, he popped off a 400+ yard game against KC in the last game of the season, but when you throw 56 times (and get the resulting 3 picks) then you'll get some yardage

the 2 best players on Denver's offense from last season are gone, and they are both HEAVILY involved in the passing game (Clady and BraMarsh)

i don't think anyone honestly thinks Orton is a legit guy unless your league is VERY deep. Flacco lovers beware, Baltimore's offensive line is getting dinged up left and right, Mason is another year older and Boldin has a history of getting dinged up. On the positive side, his #1 receiver is still going to be Ray Rice, and injury or not, almost anyone can get at least 700-800 yards in a Cameron offense with a stud RB. He just has to figure out the rest himself.

Cutler will put up a lot of yards and TDs. If your league penalizes interceptions heavily then you're in trouble, but that's an offense that will generate yardage and TDs for the QB. Remember, even Jon Kitna put up 4k yards in consecutive seasons and Marc Bulger 3800+ in consecutive seasons with the Martzman. I also think that Devin Aromoshodu (i know i spelled that wrong) and Johnny Knox should have some pretty solid seasons. They will also fall behind quite a bit and have 2 solid backfield receivers in Forte and Chester, and we also know that Martz loves him some RBs with hands.

McNabb should produce fairly well and Eli is a shockingly underrated dude. I'm not a huge Eli Manning fan but he put up stats last season that were almost identical to big brother Peyton the year before and Pey-pey won himself a league MVP award.

I think Ryan and Palmer are both overrated for fantasy purposes (well, Palmer overrated no matter what). I think Kolb, Favre, and if you can get him late enough, Ben have the most upside.

when you boil it down though, you have DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy to go with a decent offensive line. I like Kolb to approach 3800/25. He's not Aaron Rodgers, but his situation (sat for 3 years behind a Pro Bowl QB) is strikingly similar to Aaron Rodgers, and this was after starting for 4 years in college.

Eli, Favre, and Kolb are the smartest picks, with Ben and McNabb showing great value because they are falling SO far.

Alex Smith and especially Jason Campbell are deep sleeper picks primarily because they have talented targets and show flashes of being impressive.

 

[skillz]

Favre, Kolb, Cutler, Eli.

In that order.

This is how I have it too. Favre is the "safest" option IMO. Has a ton of weapons, plays every game, and I also like his playoff schedule more. Kolb and Cutler will be in pass happy offenses, but I like Kolb due to the better receiving weapons and, as others have said, I think Cutler throws a ton of INTs. Eli is last because I see the Giants becoming a more run first team this season. His numbers regress a bit. I would be happy with anyone but Eli as my No. 1 though in a 12 teamer.

An already hobbled 40 year old QB, who is getting chased and tackled by 24 year old's in their prime, is the "safest" option? I'm not arguing his potential based on opportunity, I'm arguing his risk. He is faaarrrr from safe... Heck, he may not even make it that juicy playoff schedule. He's a huge risk/reward play in my opinion. If I don't land a top QB, I don't know that Favre is my target unless I am immediately following him up with another low-end QB1/high-end QB2. I just wouldn't feel safe with him and would rather grab two other QBs for my QBBC and use the spot where Favre is going to grab another depth pick.

I am just basing that statement off of:1. I think the ankle injury is overblown. It let Favre put off training camp. Last year, everyone was talking about his biceps surgery and how that was going to adversely affect him. It didn't. He put up career best numbers.

2. He has never missed a start in 285 games. So he will be out there every week.

3. His track record of putting up good seasons is far more established than the other QBs - I would rather draft him based on the expectation that he can put together another good year in the same offense with the same surrounding talent than Cutler in a new offense, Kolb in his first season of starting, or Eli.

I could be wrong but I think he has another good season in him and is thus a better (and safer) pick than the other QBs.

 

[SSOG]

Cutler, McNabb, Roethlisberger. In that order.

 

[Dr. Malo]

The Broncos have suffered a slew of injuries at RB and all along the O-line. Their current WRs are a journeyman that for some reason people have high hopes for and a third year possession receiver. They have no TE to speak of. Their two rookie WRs could be something special but unless you think they are the Randy Moss type of special I wouldn't count on them doing much to help Orton's numbers (at least not in the first half of the season).

They aren't planning on being a run-first team. The RBs will all be healthy by the first game. And RBs in this system are a dime a dozen.The O-Line has only two newbies, the rookie center Walton, and Zane Beadles. Both of whom played all of the first preseason game, and did exceptionally well against Cincy's attacking style defense. Orton wasn't even touched. Cincy blitzed on nearly every down.The rookie WRs are not being counted on. They will play when they are ready. We still have Gaffney, Royal, Lloyd, Stokley, and Willis. All of whom are very capable.The TEs will be fine, Graham, Quinn, and Branson all can block and catch well. Branson will be the new Scheffler.There seems to be a lot of ignorance on the part of people who don't follow the Broncos about all of the changes and who the players are. They upgraded every single position group this off-season. Just because they don't have a good national following, doesn't mean they aren't good.Orton had two messed up ankles and a broken finger and still put up 3802 yards (career high for him). Now that he is healthy, understands the offense, and is surrounded by playmakers, he is just going to let it rip. 4000 yards is not insurmountable. Ten QBs threw for over 4000 yards last year, Orton was 198 yards shy of that number.You don't have to drink the kool-aid, but all the stars are aligned for him to improve on his numbers. What makes it even better, is that he isn't even being drafted. People are drafting guys like Garrard and Freeman and Henne... and ignoring a proven player on a well established team with a great offense and coach. He is just going to pick apart defenses, surgically, like Brady does. Only 3 games are against tough defenses: Jets, 49ers, and Ravens. The rest is a walk in the park.You are going to be very surprised. This offense is going to really rock!

 

[Chaka]

The Broncos have suffered a slew of injuries at RB and all along the O-line. Their current WRs are a journeyman that for some reason people have high hopes for and a third year possession receiver. They have no TE to speak of. Their two rookie WRs could be something special but unless you think they are the Randy Moss type of special I wouldn't count on them doing much to help Orton's numbers (at least not in the first half of the season).

They aren't planning on being a run-first team. The RBs will all be healthy by the first game. And RBs in this system are a dime a dozen.The O-Line has only two newbies, the rookie center Walton, and Zane Beadles. Both of whom played all of the first preseason game, and did exceptionally well against Cincy's attacking style defense. Orton wasn't even touched. Cincy blitzed on nearly every down.The rookie WRs are not being counted on. They will play when they are ready. We still have Gaffney, Royal, Lloyd, Stokley, and Willis. All of whom are very capable.The TEs will be fine, Graham, Quinn, and Branson all can block and catch well. Branson will be the new Scheffler.There seems to be a lot of ignorance on the part of people who don't follow the Broncos about all of the changes and who the players are. They upgraded every single position group this off-season. Just because they don't have a good national following, doesn't mean they aren't good.Orton had two messed up ankles and a broken finger and still put up 3802 yards (career high for him). Now that he is healthy, understands the offense, and is surrounded by playmakers, he is just going to let it rip. 4000 yards is not insurmountable. Ten QBs threw for over 4000 yards last year, Orton was 198 yards shy of that number.You don't have to drink the kool-aid, but all the stars are aligned for him to improve on his numbers. What makes it even better, is that he isn't even being drafted. People are drafting guys like Garrard and Freeman and Henne... and ignoring a proven player on a well established team with a great offense and coach. He is just going to pick apart defenses, surgically, like Brady does. Only 3 games are against tough defenses: Jets, 49ers, and Ravens. The rest is a walk in the park.You are going to be very surprised. This offense is going to really rock!

The o-line has two new players and three injured returning starters.Gaffney, Lloyd & Stokley are journeymen and Royal could rebound or could be Michael Clayton 2.0. Who's Willis?Graham is a journeyman too. Quinn? Branson?Orton had Brandon Marshall.I would gladly take Orton over Garrard & Freeman...Henne has Brandon Marshall and an offense very willing to go against conventional thinking.Denver looks to have a favorable schedule.

 

[sgtrobo]

i guess what I don't get is, how does losing a 6'4, 230 lb WR who has put up > 100 catches PER SEASON for the last 3 seasons, mean the stars are "aligning" for Orton?

in 2007, Marshall had 102 receptions, 1325 yards. 2nd best WR had 40 receptions, 635 yards (Stokely)

in 2008, Marshall had 104 receptions, 1265 yards. 2nd best WR had 91/980 (Royal)

in 2009, Marshall had 101 receptions, 1120 yards. 2nd best WR had 54/732 (Gafney)

see the pattern here? Marshall, despite EVERYBODY knowing he was the primary target, STILL dominated while drawing double coverage. Who's going to draw the double coverage this year? You also lost your #1 TE from all 3 of those seasons.

Graham is 32, Stokley is 34, and Gaffney is 31. Your best OL has a jacked up knee. Your #1 WR is a now 3rd year guy who had 37 receptions last season, your #1 TE is ancient and untalented, your top 2 experienced WRs are slow, old and aside from a 1-year aberration with Peyton Manning, have never produced anywhere close to WR2 numbers. You lost a dude who has put up over 300 receptions and 3700 yards the last 3 seasons...

I dunno man. I congratulate you for being loyal to your team, but please don't be offended if I say "you're nuts" when you claim Kyle Orton will have a great season this year.

I guess I'm just not seeing how

 

[Dr. Malo]

It's easy to look at all those things from the outside and say "Denver will suck this year". Losing Marshall, Scheffler, having no name or old WRs this year, a beat up OL, etc, etc.

If you've been following camp, OTAs, the preseason, and watching game film on the Broncos, it'd be pretty obvious that they are going to exceed expectations (since they are so low) and really make some noise in the AFC. They only have 3 rather difficult games, the rest is a walk in the park. The team could easily win 10 to 13 games if they catch a few nice breaks.

It's easy to say they will be awful looking from the outside. Mark my words, they are going to turn some heads and make a big splash. Once the two 6' 3" 230 pound rookie WRs are up to speed, all hell will break loose. Imagine Brandon Marshall, that can run a 4.3 forty. That's what Thomas is.

I am not just being loyal to my team. I'm pretty objective. I just look at the evidence, see what I see based on film, camp, preseason, etc and make up my mind. They are looking very good this year. I don't know much about most other NFL teams, but I really know the Broncos.

Pick up Orton off waivers, and plug him in against Jacksonville and Seattle the first two games.... you may not look back. The third game is Indy at Denver... may be a shoot out. Indy doesn't have a good enough secondary to cover all our weapons.

 

[sgtrobo]

don't take this the wrong way Dr. Malo, but I honestly don't care how Denver does. This is fantasy football.

You are REALLY stretching yourself out on a limb when you say "imagine Brandon Marshall, that can run a 4.3...That's what Thomas is"

I like DeThom, but to say going from a perennial 100+ catch stud to a rookie will actually result in an INCREASE in production is simply shortsighted. Even if he replicated his collegiate production with ZERO dropoff, he still would fall short of Brandon Marshall's production.

Now, do we REALLY need to dig out the # of "can't miss" collegiate WR studs who failed miserably in the pro's? Hell, we could list half a dozen from Detroit alone!

I don't mean to be a party pooper, but since 1961, all of 10 rookie WRs have broken 1000 yards. Even studs like Andre Johnson and Jerry Rice didn't break 1000 yards as rookies and we know how they turned out, right?

By comparison, since 1980, 41 rookie WRs DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND have failed to break 30 receptions OR 300 yards. Remember, that's ONLY 1st round WRs, supposedly the 'best of the best'. Expanding that search to 1st and 2nd round WRs puts the # over 200 and includes some pretty big names who did great later in their careers.

again, I applaud your loyalty, but you're really stretching things out. I'm a huge Steelers fan (obviously) and losing Santonio Holmes is going to be big for Ben, even though he still has Hines Ward and Heath Miller. Like you, I really like the WRs that the Steelers brought to camp, and with Mike Wallace entering his second year PERHAPS he will noticeably improve, but as Eddie Royal is my witness, ya just can't assume that is what happens.

 

[ditka85]

One QB that is flying well under the radar is Kyle Orton. He finished 14th overall last year in fantasy scoring (for all positions), and is poised to have another amazing year. He was playing on 2 bum ankles, and a broken finger, in a brand new system. This year he is 100% healthy and knows the system. This same offense under the same coach put up record numbers in 2007 with New England. McDaniels is saying that Orton isn't making any mistakes and 100% of the time puts them in the right play and goes to the right guy with the ball. He is crisp and efficient in camp, as well as in preseason. He is making no mistakes and has a plethora of targets and wide receivers to throw the ball to.

He isn't being drafted, so he will outperform his ADP. You can easily pick him up off waivers. I am sure he will outscore Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Favre, big Ben, Flacco, Ryan, etc. He can easily break into the top 10 (he just has to move up 4 sopts from last year, which is easy). I can even see him finishing in the top 5 or 6. He will have over 4000 yards passing and over 30 TDs. It will be an interesting year.

The good Dr. back to pimp Orton again this year. Keep expressing that objective opinion, Doc. I'm willing to bet you Orton doesn't sniff the top 5-6.

 

[Sweet Love]

It's easy to look at all those things from the outside and say "Denver will suck this year". Losing Marshall, Scheffler, having no name or old WRs this year, a beat up OL, etc, etc. If you've been following camp, OTAs, the preseason, and watching game film on the Broncos, it'd be pretty obvious that they are going to exceed expectations (since they are so low) and really make some noise in the AFC. They only have 3 rather difficult games, the rest is a walk in the park. The team could easily win 10 to 13 games if they catch a few nice breaks.It's easy to say they will be awful looking from the outside. Mark my words, they are going to turn some heads and make a big splash. Once the two 6' 3" 230 pound rookie WRs are up to speed, all hell will break loose. Imagine Brandon Marshall, that can run a 4.3 forty. That's what Thomas is.I am not just being loyal to my team. I'm pretty objective. I just look at the evidence, see what I see based on film, camp, preseason, etc and make up my mind. They are looking very good this year. I don't know much about most other NFL teams, but I really know the Broncos.Pick up Orton off waivers, and plug him in against Jacksonville and Seattle the first two games.... you may not look back. The third game is Indy at Denver... may be a shoot out. Indy doesn't have a good enough secondary to cover all our weapons.

Your passion is second to none, but I don't see how this team wins more than 6 games. The AFC West got better. Oakland is stabilizing (and have great corners), SD may take a small step back, but that still makes them an 11 win team and KC with Weiss will put less pressure on the defense, lus with Crennel there, they will have a more focused game plan. If you want to argue that Denver will be playing from behind a majority of the time, then maybe I can buy that, but Gaffney is fools gold (I posted a breakdown of his stats in another thread and he is not only a second half of the season player, but he also has 1-2 monster games each year that make up 25% or so of his yearly stats). Thomas is behind from being injured (which is never good for a rookie WR) and Brandon Lloyd?!?! I don't even know where to go there. At best, Orton puts up a 22-20 (TD to INT season) with this cast of characters...may as well get Cutler with that ratio and get more TDs. Finally, didn't Denver finish the year 2-8? That is usually not a trend for optimism the following season with the same head coach.

 

[Dr. Malo]

The good Dr. back to pimp Orton again this year. Keep expressing that objective opinion, Doc. I'm willing to bet you Orton doesn't sniff the top 5-6.

Never pimped Orton before.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

Here's a QBBC that I've been toying with: Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck.

Both QBs can be drafted extremely late. Both QBs have something to prove this year. Both QBs are capable of putting up 25-30 TDs and between 3500-4000 yards passing.

It would be a very risky strategy but it would allow your team to load up elsewhere, get a top TE and Defense without sacrificing RB or WR depth. In a 12-team league you can get Roethlisberger around round 10/11 and Hasselbeck is usually available in the 14th round of a draft.

Hasselbeck has a favorable early schedule for when Roethlisberger is out. The only problem is that they have the same bye. For week 5, Sam Bradford could be a decent replacement since he plays the Lions.

 

[sgtrobo]

I'm willing to bet you Orton doesn't sniff the top 5-6.

5-6?I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if he was top 15

 

[sgtrobo]

Here's a QBBC that I've been toying with: Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck.Both QBs can be drafted extremely late. Both QBs have something to prove this year. Both QBs are capable of putting up 25-30 TDs and between 3500-4000 yards passing.It would be a very risky strategy but it would allow your team to load up elsewhere, get a top TE and Defense without sacrificing RB or WR depth. In a 12-team league you can get Roethlisberger around round 10/11 and Hasselbeck is usually available in the 14th round of a draft.Hasselbeck has a favorable early schedule for when Roethlisberger is out. The only problem is that they have the same bye. For week 5, Sam Bradford could be a decent replacement since he plays the Lions.

well, if you go for it, you're either nuts or ballsy as hell.If it works out, you're ballsy. If it doesn't work, you're nuts.