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QBs who are likely to earn $50 Million per year on their next contract whether you like it or not (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
There's no way to sugarcoat this...with Rodgers approaching age 40 and setting the bar for $$$ there's just no way to get around this for most teams.

Tua Tags...he has everything set for a career year including a coach that wants to be his best friend and attend Tua's Birthday Lu'au

Tua having a B-Day Luau if you even doubt me for a second.

I wonder how many fans are unaware that their average QB is just one decent season from entering the Year 3-4 portal where QBs expect to get paid.

It feels like there is a shockwave of salaries right now boosted from the Wide Receiver frenzy happening before our very eyes.

DeShaun Watson got $230M fully guaranteed, let that sink in for a minute. About $46M per year and he is likely facing suspension. Now imagine how that empowers ALL AGENTS representing ALL POSITIONS, no wonder teams are mad at Cleveland and beating Roger Goodell over the head to suspend Watson until the end of Kingdom Come right now. Trevor Bauer got 2 years(yeah yeah it's MLB)...just saying there is relevant precedence right now.

This can go many ways and I wanted to discuss player's salaries because I mostly cheer them getting every penny they can(I wasn't always that way) but it seems to bother many others and I wanted to hear why folks feel that way when the rules are clearly labeled.

Rams paid many high priced players last season and won a Lombardi...they don't give them out to the team that most fairly balances the wages around to make everyone happy.

Mic drop, what you got?
 
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rzrback77

IBL Representative
of the younger guys, assuming no additional catastrophic injuries, I expect that Burrow, Herbert and Murray will likely all see close to that amount or even more if someone else signs a big contract extension ahead of them.

 

babydemon90

Footballguy
The $$ value doesn't matter as much as cap percent. At the end of the day - if your QB is over ~15% of the cap - you probably arent fielding a good enough team around him to win.

How you get below that number... that depends.  You can pay your QB but get creative with dead years and spacing, but if you're holding the guy long term? Its gonna be tough to win if he's too high.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Tua...you laugh all you want but if he can exploit Hill, Waddle and Gesicki...don't be surprised. The owner of the Dolphins WANTS to PAY TUA, i promise you he will send it in a Brinks, no questions asked.  :yes:

Burrow...likely gonna push this thing well past $60M per year

Herbert...just ship the Sherbet to Herbert right now and be done with it

Jalen Hurts? He has weapons and a good offense around him, easy to see him cash in this year or force his way out of Philly with a solid season. 

 
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babydemon90

Footballguy
The $$ value doesn't matter as much as cap percent. At the end of the day - if your QB is over ~15% of the cap - you probably arent fielding a good enough team around him to win.

How you get below that number... that depends.  You can pay your QB but get creative with dead years and spacing, but if you're holding the guy long term? Its gonna be tough to win if he's too high.
Pack are fine for a few years because they added a few dead years to the end of the deal.

The Browns?  They're ok this year, but after that its bleak.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
of the younger guys, assuming no additional catastrophic injuries, I expect that Burrow, Herbert and Murray will likely all see close to that amount or even more if someone else signs a big contract extension ahead of them.
Murray already should have been given his singing bonus so it's going up by the minute in AZ, he might want to ask for $75M because by the time AZ gets around to it, the market will have moved up  :lmao:

Burrow and Herbert both on a collision course to re-set the market whenever they are extended by Cinci and LA...imagine if the 2 cheapest owners in Sports spare even a day extending these 2 QBs from the stroke of midnight whenever it's legal for the owner to send a Brinks truck over. 

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Pack are fine for a few years because they added a few dead years to the end of the deal.

The Browns?  They're ok this year, but after that its bleak.
The Cleveland Expansion Project or as some like to refer to them as the Browns, they are finally fighting fire with fire, no Browns fan should feel like MoP is raking them over the coals, far from it. (oh but here it comes)It's just that they traded for a QB under sexual assault allegations and sexual deviance of some sort that is going to play out in Civil Court...now Goodell knows and the NFL knows that legal for the most part is closed and yet they haven't weighed in yet and dropped the gavel...they must be done with any internal investigations and yet...nothing so far. 

-Something is coming their way, not sure the exact fallout but something is coming their way in the form of a lengthy Watson suspension and Baker is no longer an option in Cleveland, you burned that bridge when you gave $230M to Watson, please stop acting like you can wheel out Baker in '22, you absolutely will not be doing that under any circumstances you can post, it's never happening, never never never never never...not ever. 

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
babydemon90 said:
The $$ value doesn't matter as much as cap percent. At the end of the day - if your QB is over ~15% of the cap - you probably arent fielding a good enough team around him to win.

How you get below that number... that depends.  You can pay your QB but get creative with dead years and spacing, but if you're holding the guy long term? Its gonna be tough to win if he's too high.
Well said 

But you gotta account for a $50M QB or else you are picking a new one every 3 years, yes/no?

Think about the new $25M WRs, you either pay them or you are trading and replacing them every 3 years, just ask the Titans, yes/no?

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
I'm fine with the Burrows and Sherbert Herberts making the 50 Millies. It's when Kirkland Cousins re-ups for the Hawaii Five-O in a few years that I'm going to lose my lunch.
I doubt Cousins ever gets into that club barring a 3-mile-island routine in SF with JimmyG/Trey. But you are correct bringing him up as the cautionary tale. He's really been paid like a truly elite QB because nobody was fully willing to commit long term money to him but can't seem to easily replace him and move on. Remember when Cousins wanted ~$23mil/season, but his team only wanted to pay him $21mil/season so they just paid him one year, one franchise tag at a time? That almost seems quaint in hindsight.

The people that should be remembering that cautionary tale are teams like ARZ when they are negotiating with Murray. Franchise tag here, short term deal there, if you let the player hover on the edge of FA you are going to make him so much more money over his career. KC did the smart thing. Sign the long term deal that SOUNDS astronomical but sounds cheap in three years time. Mahomes seems like a good guy and all but there is no way he plays out that deal until his age 36 season. No way.....

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

... but at least KC is re-negotiating with him from a position of strength in a few years. Teams think that they get to "control" the player with the franchise tag but just ask DAL how that works out. It was only a few years ago Dak was asking for an "astronomical" $30mil/season and through shrewd use of the franchise tag DAL will pay Dak $49mil against the cap next season.

It's one of the reasons I think teams are playing this Baker Mayfield situation so badly right now. He's proven to be an average NFL QB when healthy at the very least and his competitive makeup is such that if you offered him a heavily incentive laden deal that challenged him to go out and earn the money I think he'd sign an extension with almost anyone to show all of his doubters wrong. It's how he's wired and he's at the bottom of the crater of his career right now largely because he was playing through an injury for most of last season. If he does earn the money then great you are paying him because he's playing great and you gave up next to nothing to get a QB playing very well. If he never plays like he did when he was healthy then he doesn't hit his incentives and you are just paying him backup $ anyway. Seems like win/win to me. I can remember when Ryan Tannehill was toxic and was lucky to get a job as the Mariota backup on the way out of Miami.

To answer @Ministry of Painand his OP I would guess the next contract that makes everyone wince will be Jalen Hurts. They put a great team surrounding him and he plays like a top 10-15 QB and maybe even wins a division title BUT doesn't get to a conference championship and maybe not even a playoff win. So what do you do? Give him $55mil/season or try to move on?

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Ministry of Pain said:
Burrow and Herbert both on a collision course to re-set the market whenever they are extended by Cinci and LA...imagine if the 2 cheapest owners in Sports spare even a day extending these 2 QBs from the stroke of midnight whenever it's legal for the owner to send a Brinks truck over. 
Given the history of those two franchises you would expect both to simply waste their careers by failing to surround them with enough talent to make them a legitimate contender.

That said I like most of the moves CIN made this offseason and they may actually stay relevant which I wouldn't have believed if you asked me back in February and Burrow was getting the stuffing beat out of him even if they were winning games.

In my mind it's not that the chargers don't spend money, they just don't spend it wisely all that often. For instance they missed the playoffs because they simply couldn't block Maxx Crosby and they almost got Herbert killed. So to make sure that doesn't happen 8 months later they signed JC Jackson(CB), Sebastian Joseph-Day(DT), and Gerald Everett(TE). They spent money..... but they still can't stop Maxx Crosby which is why they haven't made the playoffs since back when "Rivers was holding the team back". People think that they are cheap because they had crazy leverage in dealing with Antonio Gates and negotiated like they did, they were not going to give Vincent Jackson the highest paid contract ever by a WR because.... well that was just stupid, and they wouldn't pay Melvin Gordon $15mil/season. The chargers waste money just as much as 90% of the rest of the NFL. It's just so poorly allocated that you don't notice. Or they don't spend it on the fantasy stars that the general public cares about is probably more precise.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
A.J. Brown selected Rd 2 in 2019. 

4yr/$5.65M or an avg salary of around $1.4M

Base Salaries

2019-$495k

2020-$750k,

2021-$1M,

2022-$1M..and. he still must play out his rookie base salary for Year 4 this season but because he is extended he now gets a whopping $23.2M signing bonus and he gets it all RIGHT NOW! As soon as Year 3 ends on these rookie deals that players sign who are drafted, the clock is ticking for owners and front offices to get a deal done especially with players that have proven themselves worth being picked in the first place. 

AJB-Spotrac will show all this as well. 

What do Burrow and Herbert as QBs get for signing bonuses next Spring? Are they going to get a $250M guaranteed deal?  

 

Soulfly3

Footballguy
I absolutely LOVE that the Browns did this to other teams, namely CIN and BAL. I've had this discussion on the foum when the trade was made...

Both built around not paying the QB.

We're golden for 5yrs, and can answer the bell then, w a much, MUCH higher cap ceiling.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I absolutely LOVE that the Browns did this to other teams, namely CIN and BAL. I've had this discussion on the foum when the trade was made...

Both built around not paying the QB.

We're golden for 5yrs, and can answer the bell then, w a much, MUCH higher cap ceiling.
All good Soul, just be aware that 31 owners are not very happy and the penalty for Watson might be a reflection of some of that hate in the upcoming sentencing phase by Judge Roger Goodell. I had thought maybe 4-6 games early on but it feels like a lot more lately. They have to be done concluding any internal investigation, at least enough to make an informed decision on the suspension. Not sure what they are waiting on but they don't seem to be in any hurry to announce the outcome. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
It's one of the reasons I think teams are playing this Baker Mayfield situation so badly right now. He's proven to be an average NFL QB when healthy at the very least and his competitive makeup is such that if you offered him a heavily incentive laden deal that challenged him to go out and earn the money I think he'd sign an extension with almost anyone to show all of his doubters wrong. It's how he's wired and he's at the bottom of the crater of his career right now largely because he was playing through an injury for most of last season. If he does earn the money then great you are paying him because he's playing great and you gave up next to nothing to get a QB playing very well. If he never plays like he did when he was healthy then he doesn't hit his incentives and you are just paying him backup $ anyway. Seems like win/win to me. I can remember when Ryan Tannehill was toxic and was lucky to get a job as the Mariota backup on the way out of Miami.

To answer @Ministry of Painand his OP I would guess the next contract that makes everyone wince will be Jalen Hurts. They put a great team surrounding him and he plays like a top 10-15 QB and maybe even wins a division title BUT doesn't get to a conference championship and maybe not even a playoff win. So what do you do? Give him $55mil/season or try to move on?
Baker only cost $18M this year and I would anticipate teams could lowball him a little on a short deal until he proves his place in the QB market. There's media folks who think Cleveland will even pick up a big chunk of his salary to move him. Both the Browns and Baker burned the bridge from both sides which is unusual. 

Teams feel they can gamble that the Browns will eventually release Baker. That or the Browns are not willing to accept a 4th or 5th round pick for him. 

Jalen Hurts was a good name to put into the discussion. 

 

Dacomish

Footballguy
The fact that Seattle moved its best QB in franchise history for something rather than have to deal with the astronomical contract he would seek and potentially lose him with little to no compensation (other than maybe a compensatory pick) is telling. Teams may have to follow the same model if they cant get one in a trade (like Stafford last year) or don't have a young cheap QB in the wings and build through the draft. I fully expect Seattle drafts a cornerstone QB next year and ride the lower QB salary like they did when they drafted Russ although it may very well be a 1st round salary, which is still WAY cheaper than paying Russ over $50M. 

 
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Godsbrother

Footballguy
I absolutely LOVE that the Browns did this to other teams, namely CIN and BAL. I've had this discussion on the foum when the trade was made...

Both built around not paying the QB.

We're golden for 5yrs, and can answer the bell then, w a much, MUCH higher cap ceiling.
You won't like it so much if Watson doesn't work out for any reason.  Guaranteeing $230 million is a HUGE risk.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The fact that Seattle moved its best QB in franchise history for something rather than have to deal with the astronomical contract he would seek and potentially lose him with little to no compensation (other than maybe a compensatory pick) is telling. Teams may have to follow the same model if they cant get one in a trade (like Stafford last year) or don't have a young cheap QB in the wings and build through the draft. I fully expect Seattle drafts a cornerstone QB next year and ride the lower QB salary like they did when they drafted Russ although it may very well be a 1st round salary, which is still WAY cheaper than paying Russ over $50M. 
Not sure I agree but that doesn't matter, you nailed it on where the whole "Ride the Rookie QB" thing started and teams were trying to copy them and load up in Years 2 and 3 of these rookie contracts at QB but eventually the party ends. A Lombardi Trophy is a very nice take home prize. 

-I agree with your game plan or echoing what you feel the Seattle front office is doing. Wise to have extra draft picks for next year. I saw Van Dyke from Miami who I absolutely love love love and he's like 6th or 7th on the list right now, not sure folks even know who he is. Redshirt Sophomore that won't be staying at The "U" for long.

Excellent post, thank you. 

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
You won't like it so much if Watson doesn't work out for any reason.  Guaranteeing $230 million is a HUGE risk.
Congrats Pittsburgh, keep hearing you just drafted the second coming of Dan Marino. 

I have to assume the Steelers are set with an inexpensive Hall Of Fame QB for years. 

No need to look at next year's talented QBs after using a 1st round  pick this year.

No risk that he'll be a middling QB pushing the need to draft the most important position on the field down the road for years.  

Mind boggling to the rest of the clueless NFL watching Pittsburg draft a HOF QBs with the 20th pick in a weak QB class.

I don't know how anyone can see flaws in that brilliant strategy.  There is NO WAY that does not work out.  

 

nysfl2

Footballguy
Baker only cost $18M this year and I would anticipate teams could lowball him a little on a short deal until he proves his place in the QB market. There's media folks who think Cleveland will even pick up a big chunk of his salary to move him. Both the Browns and Baker burned the bridge from both sides which is unusual. 

Teams feel they can gamble that the Browns will eventually release Baker. That or the Browns are not willing to accept a 4th or 5th round pick for him. 

Jalen Hurts was a good name to put into the discussion. 
Jalen Hurts getting 40+ million per year makes me nauseous 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Jalen Hurts getting 40+ million per year makes me nauseous 
Philly appears to be a team getting prepared to either move forward with hurts or ready to draft a QB and have him enter a talented team just looking for a QB to lead them. 

I see them drafting one of the top 5 QBs next year on Day 1.

 

Godsbrother

Footballguy
Congrats Pittsburgh, keep hearing you just drafted the second coming of Dan Marino. 

I have to assume the Steelers are set with an inexpensive Hall Of Fame QB for years. 

No need to look at next year's talented QBs after using a 1st round  pick this year.

No risk that he'll be a middling QB pushing the need to draft the most important position on the field down the road for years.  

Mind boggling to the rest of the clueless NFL watching Pittsburg draft a HOF QBs with the 20th pick in a weak QB class.

I don't know how anyone can see flaws in that brilliant strategy.  There is NO WAY that does not work out.  


I'm not a big fan of Kenny Pickett, I certainly would not have taken him with a #1 pick, but I don't see what that has to do with the topic of this thread.

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
I'm not a big fan of Kenny Pickett, I certainly would not have taken him with a #1 pick, but I don't see what that has to do with the topic of this thread.
The savings man, the incredible amazing cost savings that the brilliant Steelers are going to reap to show the rest of the league how brilliant they are.  

Now I hear Trubisky is Phillip Rivers and Pickett is Drew Brees.

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/05/is-trubisky-pickett-the-next-brees-rivers-dilemma/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Pittsburgh QB strategy = WINNING!

 

Godsbrother

Footballguy
The savings man, the incredible amazing cost savings that the brilliant Steelers are going to reap to show the rest of the league how brilliant they are.  

Now I hear Trubisky is Phillip Rivers and Pickett is Drew Brees.

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/05/is-trubisky-pickett-the-next-brees-rivers-dilemma/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Pittsburgh QB strategy = WINNING!
Who knows, it could turn out well but if it doesn't you haven't risked much and can draft another QB or go out and sign a FA.  

I never said the Browns made a mistake, I was just pointing out that guaranteeing $230 million and giving up all of those picks is a risk.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I'm fine with the Burrows and Sherbert Herberts making the 50 Millies. It's when Kirkland Cousins re-ups for the Hawaii Five-O in a few years that I'm going to lose my lunch.
Why would you begrudge anyone from earning any and every cent they can?

I find it bizarre when people get bent out of shape over athletic contracts. Particularly when it's a sports fan who is contributing to the high value we, as a society, place on athletes.

 

Summer Wheat

Footballguy
Jalen Hurts getting 40+ million per year makes me nauseous 


Just because a team keeps their QB does not mean they have to pay them 40 million.   If Hurts is a middle of the road that is his market value. Just because a QBs contract is expiring does not mean they get to set the market. Look at how MLB handles FAs.  Top guys get top pay, mid level guys get less and so forth.

Highly doubt Hurts would get 40 as a UFA by any team.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Given the history of those two franchises you would expect both to simply waste their careers by failing to surround them with enough talent to make them a legitimate contender.

That said I like most of the moves CIN made this offseason and they may actually stay relevant which I wouldn't have believed if you asked me back in February and Burrow was getting the stuffing beat out of him even if they were winning games.

In my mind it's not that the chargers don't spend money, they just don't spend it wisely all that often. For instance they missed the playoffs because they simply couldn't block Maxx Crosby and they almost got Herbert killed. So to make sure that doesn't happen 8 months later they signed JC Jackson(CB), Sebastian Joseph-Day(DT), and Gerald Everett(TE). They spent money..... but they still can't stop Maxx Crosby which is why they haven't made the playoffs since back when "Rivers was holding the team back". People think that they are cheap because they had crazy leverage in dealing with Antonio Gates and negotiated like they did, they were not going to give Vincent Jackson the highest paid contract ever by a WR because.... well that was just stupid, and they wouldn't pay Melvin Gordon $15mil/season. The chargers waste money just as much as 90% of the rest of the NFL. It's just so poorly allocated that you don't notice. Or they don't spend it on the fantasy stars that the general public cares about is probably more precise.
Side note: The Chargers o-line got a lot stronger this off-season. They potentially have bookend taxes for the next 4-5 years.

They went strong after defense and free agency because that was the most glaring weakness on the team across the board.

IMO they improved more than any team in the AFC West and should probably be the favorites win the division, by an exceedingly small margin, ATM.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Baker only cost $18M this year and I would anticipate teams could lowball him a little on a short deal until he proves his place in the QB market. There's media folks who think Cleveland will even pick up a big chunk of his salary to move him. Both the Browns and Baker burned the bridge from both sides which is unusual. 

Teams feel they can gamble that the Browns will eventually release Baker. That or the Browns are not willing to accept a 4th or 5th round pick for him. 

Jalen Hurts was a good name to put into the discussion. 
The Browns aren't making any moves with Mayfield until the Watson suspension is announced. After what happened with the MLB & Bauer I agree with you that Watson's could be a big one. And here is where I disagree with one of your points above; if Watson gets a  season long suspension then there is no way the Browns get rid of Mayfield and go into 2022 with...Kevin Hogan?, or someone like that. 2022 and $18.8 mil becomes Mayfield's "prove it" year and the Browns can tender him at some level in 2023 and at the very least get a compensatory draft pick for him. And, Mayfield playing in 2022 would also put butts in the seats.

Mayfield would absolutely be incentivized to perform because he wants to join every other QB in the $50mil/year club.

No, the Browns would be stupid not to hold onto Mayfield, at the very least until Watson's status is known.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
and i wouldve bet my life on 6-8 games and now feel like he's playing al 17 (plus all playoffs to the SB ;)  )at least for this season. and then probably miss 6 next yr.
Watson is set to earn $1 mil in base salary in 2022 and $46 mil base in 2023 going forward. Loss of per game salary comes with a suspension so I imagine Watson's people are going to push for any suspension to happen in 2022.

Also, after the Bauer ruling in MLB it is hard to imagine only a six game suspension in any year passing public muster.

Watson is an idiot for not settling these claims months ago.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
They better, I mean come on.  If they were going to move-up for him they BETTER believe in him.
Weird takes Bracie. It's a mid first round pick in a draft with very few players with first round grades, particularly at QB. There wasn't a better option and, unless you are suggesting Trubisky is a better option (I think he still could be but, who knows?) why not address a position of need?

No one drafts a QB at 20 thinking they are locked into a future HoFer. 

If it doesn't work out you don't pick up his option and you move on. If there were better QB options or you had reasonable expectations to pick in the top 5 next year, which doesn't seem to ever happen on a Tomlin coached team, then maybe hold off on a QB and draft o-line but that doesn't appear to be the case here.

If it does you work out you got your next $50 mil/year QB.

Not sure why you are riding this one so much. It wasn't a bad move.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
Why would you begrudge anyone from earning any and every cent they can?

I find it bizarre when people get bent out of shape over athletic contracts. Particularly when it's a sports fan who is contributing to the high value we, as a society, place on athletes.


You took my post way too serious. I am sincerely happy for Cousins. Good for him, sticking it to a system that owners were trying to use against him. That said, if he does break into the $50 MM club, my eyes will get a bit watery.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
You took my post way too serious. I am sincerely happy for Cousins. Good for him, sticking it to a system that owners were trying to use against him. That said, if he does break into the $50 MM club, my eyes will get a bit watery.
I think most people are "ok" about Cousins getting overpaid. Some people probably are bent out of shape about the anti-vaxxing stuff, and others just think he shows up small in big games. Maybe a tricked out version of Andy Dalton(who people also thought was way overpaid at one time.)

But I do think people hated how much a guy like JaMarcus Russel made when they look at how little work he put into earning that money. Say what you will about Cousins but I think he's always putting 100% into it.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
I think most people are "ok" about Cousins getting overpaid. Some people probably are bent out of shape about the anti-vaxxing stuff, and others just think he shows up small in big games. Maybe a tricked out version of Andy Dalton(who people also thought was way overpaid at one time.)

But I do think people hated how much a guy like JaMarcus Russel made when they look at how little work he put into earning that money. Say what you will about Cousins but I think he's always putting 100% into it.


Absolutely. When I criticize Cousins' deal(s) - in this case, the thought of the next one being $50 MM+ per - that is 100% on the owners and system that seem to ever-inflate the value of even mediocre QB play. But that's not on Cousins. Good for Kirk - dude busted his ### after being drafted to hold RGIII's clipboard and now look at him (and his Spotrac page)!

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Side note: The Chargers o-line got a lot stronger this off-season. They potentially have bookend taxes for the next 4-5 years.

They went strong after defense and free agency because that was the most glaring weakness on the team across the board.
You think Zion Johnson is an OT?

I don't know how anyone watched that game that eliminated the chargers from the playoffs and doesn't think RT is the absolute most glaring need on that team. Beyond telesco of course. 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Just because a team keeps their QB does not mean they have to pay them 40 million.   If Hurts is a middle of the road that is his market value. Just because a QBs contract is expiring does not mean they get to set the market. Look at how MLB handles FAs.  Top guys get top pay, mid level guys get less and so forth.

Highly doubt Hurts would get 40 as a UFA by any team.
What one player on a MLB roster has anything close to the importance of a starting QB on an NFL roster? You are absolutely comparing apples and oranges.

It's POSSIBLE you could argue that an NHL hockey goalie is as important but even there they don't enter the season with the expectation that they will play the position an entire regular season and playoffs.

QB's just have so much leverage it's ridiculous. If Hurts remains the starter in PHI is the 16th best QB in the NFL and he gets an extension it will NOT be the same contract that the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL. That is not how that works.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Philly appears to be a team getting prepared to either move forward with hurts or ready to draft a QB and have him enter a talented team just looking for a QB to lead them. 

I see them drafting one of the top 5 QBs next year on Day 1.
I agree with you here, but what if Hurts has so much talent around him that he wins a WC game? Do they "Hurts" Hurts by taking a guy in round 2 next year to hover in the background. 

Honestly, I'm also high on Carson Strong as well. If there is one thing that PHI management that I agree with is they don't waste backup QB slots the way so many teams do. Part of me can't help but wonder if they pawn off Minshew for a draft choice and bring back Foles for a next to nothing contract.

 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
Tua...you laugh all you want but if he can exploit Hill, Waddle and Gesicki...don't be surprised. The owner of the Dolphins WANTS to PAY TUA, i promise you he will send it in a Brinks, no questions asked.  :yes:

Burrow...likely gonna push this thing well past $60M per year

Herbert...just ship the Sherbet to Herbert right now and be done with it

Jalen Hurts? He has weapons and a good offense around him, easy to see him cash in this year or force his way out of Philly with a solid season. 
Tua no way. He can't make all the throws. He's so far below Burrow and Herbert that it's almost silly there was ever any debate about who should have been drafted #1 overall in 2020. 

Trey Lance or Mac Jones maybe in a few years.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
You won't like it so much if Watson doesn't work out for any reason.  Guaranteeing $230 million is a HUGE risk.
It's actually two huge risks baked into one.

- On one side you have Watson. He didn't make a bad judgement.... he repeated TENS of bad judgements and still doesn't seem to have any level of contrition EVEN IF IT WAS JUST HOLLOW IN THE PUBLIC EYE. You have to wonder if this will be the last example of poor judgement if he seems to think he hasn't really done that much wrong in the first place. I think he deserves a second chance but the way he's playing this out makes you wonder who he thinks he is...... a billionaire owner? It's almost like he's intentionally avoiding the easiest path to move past this and have a fresh start.

- On the second side you have the commish/league who STILL don't seem to care if this ever gets resolved. HOU was fine just letting him play Mario on his couch and sending him checks but I think Watson/CLE will want this resolved. It seems to me that goodell has a Dan Snyder level of denial at this point that this will ever have to get dealt with or a decision on Watson and his playing status will ever have to be addressed. Now imagine a world where Watson makes ONE MORE mistake. How harsh will the penalty be and more importantly how many years do you have to wait for the league to make a decision on what it means?

The Brooklyn Nets recently found out that just because Simmons goes from point A to point B his baggage comes with him.

 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
I'm fine with the Burrows and Sherbert Herberts making the 50 Millies. It's when Kirkland Cousins re-ups for the Hawaii Five-O in a few years that I'm going to lose my lunch.
Same. I am happy for Cousins, good for him, but some of these teams never seem to learn. You are never going to win anything with guys like Cousins, Dalton, Bradford over the years. And these types of QBs end up receiving franchise destroying contracts until they finally get cut and become a highly paid backup for the rest of their career. Teams would be better off paying far less for a scrub, getting a higher draft position and trying to land one of the next promising rookie QBs. 

 

Summer Wheat

Footballguy
What one player on a MLB roster has anything close to the importance of a starting QB on an NFL roster? You are absolutely comparing apples and oranges.

It's POSSIBLE you could argue that an NHL hockey goalie is as important but even there they don't enter the season with the expectation that they will play the position an entire regular season and playoffs.

QB's just have so much leverage it's ridiculous. If Hurts remains the starter in PHI is the 16th best QB in the NFL and he gets an extension it will NOT be the same contract that the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL. That is not how that works.


It is up to the team to decide how it works.   Hurts is just an example but it could be any QB.  I think Goffs contract is up at the end of the season for the Lions.  Goff is a middle of the road QB like Hurts.  Will Detroit set the market with Goff or let him walk, he is only 26.  Or maybe extend him as a middle of the road guy?

With Hurts or Goff I doubt either one as a UFA would set the market like a Herbert or Burrow will.

 

massraider

Footballguy
Same. I am happy for


Cousins


, good for him, but some of these teams never seem to learn. You are never going to win anything with guys like Cousins,Dalton, Bradford over the years. And these types of QBs end up receiving franchise destroying contracts until they finally get cut and become a highly paid backup for the rest of their career. Teams would be better off paying far less for a scrub, getting a higher draft position and trying to land one of the next promising rookie QBs. 
Or they could do like the Ravens, and put good teams around non-superstar QBs. 

These teams don't draft well, amke bad free agent moves, and then it's the QB contract that destroys the franchise? Eh, I don't see it. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I've posted about some of this in other places. It remains to be seen what impact the salary creep for QBs and WRs will have moving forward. The media (and perhaps NFL GMs) are reporting / acting like there is going to be some massive spike in the salary cap. Up until now (with the exception of the COVID years), the salary cap has gone up about $10M per season. Essentially, the players see money AFTER the league sees the new TV or partnership money . . . and then there is a slow ramp up. So when reporters act like the cap will being going up $50M compared to now, they are partly right. It most likely will go up $50M per year compared to now . . . in increments of $10M per year . .  over 5 seasons.

Here's the short-term financial impact. If QBs actually get to the point where they are $40-50M against the cap and WR get to $25-30M against the cap, that represents a $15-20M jump in market pay for the QBs and WRs (compared to recent seasons). If a team elects to double down and pay both spots, that's $30-40M more than the market price from not that long ago. The teams that are taking that approach are basically spending all the extra cap money for the next several seasons all on a QB/WR combo. With creative accounting, teams may be able to have lower cap hits now (but that approach will lead to huge cap hits downstream). Maybe they have outs. Maybe those players will never see those huge cap hits at the end of the deal. Maybe teams will add dummy years. But IMO, these types of deals will hamstring teams 3-5 years from now. Of course, we aren't there yet so it's hard to be certain. But it seems to me that some teams just got a credit limit increase on a credit card and then maxed out their card with one purchase.

This isn't all that surprising, as over the years when the cap goes up, the huge chunk of the new money goes to QBs. Top end guys at other positions can also cash in some, but it's always the QBs that chew up the biggest chunk of the infused salary cap dollars. It will only serve to make elite QBs taken in the first-round worth twice their weight in gold with all that team control for low dollars.

 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
Or they could do like the Ravens, and put good teams around non-superstar QBs. 

These teams don't draft well, amke bad free agent moves, and then it's the QB contract that destroys the franchise? Eh, I don't see it. 
I do like the Ravens approach. 49ers tried the same approach with Jimmy G.

But Jimmy G is better than Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins in their prime. I would argue so was Joe Flacco. Maybe not statistically, but they won big games when it counted.

Dalton and Cousins have some of the worst prime time records of all time. Like bottom 5 of all time. Their playoff records are also abysmal. Hence their contracts are franchise destroying. They got paid a lot to almost never win a big game. 

 
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