Question for the College Football experts (1 Viewer)

[Chaz]

How in the world are you guys able to know as much as you do about so many college players? I'm serious. I watch a fair amount of pro ball and, given scheduling overlaps, there are only so many players I can form an opinion on based on my own eyes (and I consider myself pretty knowledgeable on the NFL). So, even though I know that LT is da man, I have very little first hand knowledge of his ability to pick up a blitz, for example.

In college ball:

-The teams play 11 games/year.

-Given overlap in game times and TV slotting, how often is a given team really available to be seen?

-Even if you are able to watch many games for 1-3 teams, there are so many other teams out there with players that are discussed.

-Players are full time starters, what, 2 maybe 3 years?

I see comments made like (I'm paraphrasing)

-WR Z is slow to make his cuts.

-OT X has bad footwork on passing plays.

These seem to be comments made by guys who may have watched A LOT of the play of certain players, yet they get tossed around all the time when talking college ball.

So, if you are a college football "expert," please tell me how you are able to get so much info about so many players. Especially if you sound like Mel Kiper on the boards, and this is his full time gig.

 

[Chaos Commish]

It's just time invested in a topic of interest. It isn't nearly as difficult to get a handle on a class of college players as your concerns make it sound. But you do need to be a little more humble than an NFL expert, because the college scene is much more mysterious. Blowhards and know-it-alls don't last nearly as long. I never thought about it, but that may be what draws me into the college game. The fanfare is the best in sports.

Consider the gap in player knowledge between a guy serious about a couple dynasty leagues and a casual Cowboy fan who never owned a fantasy team. Is the dynasty guy doing anything special? No, he's just caught up in a time consuming game he enjoys. If the Cowboy fan got wind of the gamer's deep personnel knowledge, he'd wonder how anyone could absorb all that about 32 teams. But we know better. He's just managing a couple teams, playing a game, enjoying the sport on a slightly deeper level.

With college football it takes a few years (or a year of a little extra study) to get up to speed on each class. And that's key to having some expertise. Break half of the 100 + teams down by stars, then break them down by class, then keep an eye out for busts, Juco stars from out of the blue, the police blotter, emerging no names, etc., and it's a lot of fun. It's already broken down by conferences to provide a starting point. Instead of NFL.com spend your time at collegefootball.com. Info about the other half of the teams will sink in by osmosis. Andy Dufresne PMd me some non QB stuff about the Sugar Bowl, and we ended up talking about Ciron Black, the freshman LT at LSU-- future stud. Now some people would think it odd we know about Black, but we were just concerned about an NFL prospect, Abiamiri, who disappeared in that game. Why did he vanish. The freshman. So, by knowing this year's crop, watching a game, we found out something easy to remember about the class of 2010. So, three years from now, when I type, "Remember when Black pwned Abiamiri in the Sugar Bowl as a Freshman?" Abiamiri will be an NFL player people around here know, and they'll wonder how some of us "college experts" could possibly know this stuff. I watch with interest. That's all.

It's just being a fan in the end. I rely on this place for information about PRO players. I probably watch the equivalent of two NFL games a week. One in full (MNF) and three or four in bits and pieces (Sundays are busier than Saturdays). I probably watch the equilvalent of 8 college games a week. Two or three in full and a dozen in bits and pieces, most of them recorded. I watched two college games yesterday that I missed over the holidays.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

- DVR/Tivo is your friend

- I often watch sections of games just to watch a particular player on each side of the ball.

- As CC says, the good players make deep impressions, which makes it easy to remember them.

- There is usually a conventional wisdom about the player among the draftniks, so that gives a background to either reinforce or dispel.

 

[Thorpe]

First of all, throw out the Sun Belt, because that is a garbage conference with no players drafted to the NFL last year. That leaves 110 teams.

Second, you have to do your homework before the season starts. That means studying the Phil Steele book that comes out in July. Last year, he also released regional magazines which are also required reading. Pay attention to returning QBs, and teams that lose a lot of talent to the NFL (except for USC and Ohio St who can reload). Look for teams that lose a lot of starters. Teams that won or lost a lot of close games, etc.

Third, you have to watch football from noon to midnight EST. Between ESPN Gameplan, CSTV, ESPN, ABC, CBS, NBC, regional Fox stations, and CSTV, you get a lot of football. I like to put every game on my favorites so I can cycle through them easily, and I neer have to watch a commercial. It is important to not listen to most of the announcers. The announcers are going to hype certain players regardless of what happens on the field.

Fourth, study the box scores. Look at turnovers, yardage etc.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Second, you have to do your homework before the season starts. That means studying the Phil Steele book that comes out in July. Last year, he also released regional magazines which are also required reading. Pay attention to returning QBs, and teams that lose a lot of talent to the NFL (except for USC and Ohio St who can reload). Look for teams that lose a lot of starters. Teams that won or lost a lot of close games, etc.

:( Phil Steele should be near the top of your syllabus, to give you "the lay of the land"

 

[aposulli]

I don't think anyone here would or should call themselves a college football "expert" when it comes to evaluating draft talent besides maybe Bloom and CC. ETA: Thorpe (lol, nice post by the way)

That said, it's not that hard to pick up some college FB magazines, search on the internet, and watch up to 4-5 games every Saturday (if you have Tivo or multiple TVs), plus highlights.

I think for the most part, people trust what the real "experts" like Mel Kiper (as you stated).

A few other things that will help anyone become familiar with the college names = NCAA Football '07 (yes the video game, go ahead and laugh) ...and fantasy college football.

Another thing that will help ALOT in separating the mediocre (mid-round) talent will be workouts, combines and to a lesser extent, all-star games which ESPN has been covering more and more in past years.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think for the most part, people trust what the real "experts" like Mel Kiper (as you stated).

Ill take Mayock over Kiper any day. I dont think Kiper is an especially good evaluator of talent.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I don't think anyone here would or should call themselves a college football "expert" when it comes to evaluating draft talent besides maybe Bloom and CC. ETA: Thorpe (lol, nice post by the way)

I almost didn't respond to this thread because of the term "expert." As soon as someone thinks he's a college football player expert, the game will humble him. I think it is possible to be expert on a conference though. I'm a Pac 10 expert. I loved Ryan Leaf. I thought Mike Williams was a guaranteed stud. I've learned to quickly change my mind, be willing to admit error, and enjoy the discussion. An expert? I think I may be a little sharper than some who call themselves experts, but they aren't and neither am I. I think Scott Wright at NFL Draftcountdown is very good, free and he's ahead of the two paysites I subscribe to. I agree with Bloom on Mayock. That guy can break down a player technically like Jaws breaks down plays. It's beautiful, but he makes mistakes worrying too much about fundamentals. I loved Marcus McNeill, but Mayock caught him being a back bender and scared me off a little. I think it's good to know your sources. Gosselin is the best the week of the draft, always. He knows things. A year ago Kiper had Dumervil in the top 10 on his big board, John Lewis in his top 30, and barely half of his big board was drafted in the first two rounds. He gets better in March and April. He put up some solid mocks and nailed Kelly Jennings and a couple others many missed. But that was with the full power of ESPN picking brains for him. Right now, do not take him seriously except on the very obvious stuff.

 

[Chaos Commish]

CSTV

 

[Cecil Lammey]

- DVR/Tivo is your friend

All America Game (HS all star game) is on today. A good place to start if you'd like to follow college ball.Last year Chris Wells tore it up. I can't stand the Buckeyes, but I LOVE Wells and his ability.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Second, you have to do your homework before the season starts. That means studying the Phil Steele book that comes out in July. Last year, he also released regional magazines which are also required reading. Pay attention to returning QBs, and teams that lose a lot of talent to the NFL (except for USC and Ohio St who can reload). Look for teams that lose a lot of starters. Teams that won or lost a lot of close games, etc.

Phil Steele should be near the top of your syllabus, to give you "the lay of the land"

The College FB Bible IMHO. I anxiously await the release of the new yearbook each season.

 

[Chaz]

What I'm getting out of this is it seems like it just becomes a way of life, like anything else. You need to have a strong interest and it will build naturally from there.

And for anyone here who would rather shy away from an "expert" tag, don't be intimidated. I would rather listen to people here on the board than the professional when it comes to talking about players. In College or the NFL, so many professionals appear absolutely clueless while trying appear smart (think commentators).

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I think for the most part, people trust what the real "experts" like Mel Kiper (as you stated).

Ill take Mayock over Kiper any day. I dont think Kiper is an especially good evaluator of talent.

First time in about 5 years that I won't be ordering the Kiper book. Been doing some review of his past couple of books and I think he really concentrates alot more on where a player will get drafted then how good they will be in the NFL. He is certainly quite connected and does a pretty good job of studying/listening to his contacts within the NFL and gets the general draft slots for players pretty correct. But his actual talent evaluation is really lacking in my opinion when compared with Coyle and PFW (even post-Joel).Edited to make another point that the topic started asked: I think that there are two components to NFL Draft prep: Predicting where the players will get drafted and evaluating their NFL prospects for fantasy football. I find that the first component takes up a lot of time. There are a million sites with Mock Drafts and talks of rumors of who likes who and which GM is blowing smoke (hint...all of them). This board has a lot more threads about mock activities than talent evaluation. Some guys like Bloom and Chaos Commish can handle dealing extensively in both these components. But I decided that I needed to spend less time and money on the draft prep this year with a new little daughter in the family so I decided to concentrate more on the talent evaluation side. There's a little more effort required per player, but it's a more concentrated effort on fewer resources and web sites and you can spread out through August instead of through April.

 

[bentley]

This doesn't apply to any of the guys that have posted in this thread (because each of them seems to put a ton of work into this), but the rank and file college football "expert" around here is parroting what they read in their local paper or heard on their local AM sports station.

 

[Chaos Commish]

- DVR/Tivo is your friend

All America Game (HS all star game) is on today. A good place to start if you'd like to follow college ball.

Good lord. Did anyone watch this kid Ryan Mallet throw the ball? He makes Jamarcus Russell look like weak armed sissy boy. Mallet is going to Michigan. He'll groom behind Henne, unless he scares him pro, and be a great three year starter for the Wolverines. Mallet is 6-7 and 240 at the age of 17. He is a fluid ahlete who throws on the run naturally and very accurately. Michigan fans should be very very happy.

 

[Capella]

This doesn't apply to any of the guys that have posted in this thread (because each of them seems to put a ton of work into this), but the rank and file college football "expert" around here is parroting what they read in their local paper or heard on their local AM sports station.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

- DVR/Tivo is your friend

All America Game (HS all star game) is on today. A good place to start if you'd like to follow college ball.

Good lord. Did anyone watch this kid Ryan Mallet throw the ball? He makes Jamarcus Russell look like weak armed sissy boy. Mallet is going to Michigan. He'll groom behind Henne, unless he scares him pro, and be a great three year starter for the Wolverines. Mallet is 6-7 and 240 at the age of 17. He is a fluid ahlete who throws on the run naturally and very accurately. Michigan fans should be very very happy.

Mallet was freaking awesome! Michigan has a great one for a few years to come. I liked the way he was competing against Clausen (they were on the same team). Some would just let Casey get all the attention, Mallet stole the spotlight. Clausen - Notre DameMallet - MichiganThis is going to be a great rivalry!