JayMan
Footballguy
There as been many threads talking about productivity only being a factor of opportunity... and we also know that the more talented you are, the more opportunities you get...
With that in mind, I looked at every game played by a RB in the NFL since 1997.
I calculated the average combined yards and TDs a RB gets if he touches the ball (carries and receptions) at least a certain amount of times...
You are to read the following table this way...
On average, a RB that touches the ball at least X times should average Y combined yards and Z TDs in that game:
-X-- -Y-----Z35--176.4--1.2234--171.1--1.2033--171.0--1.1932--167.7--1.1431--163.3--1.1030--159.7--1.0829--155.5--1.0428--150.6--1.0027--147.1--1.0126--143.0--0.9725--140.1--0.9324--137.3--0.9123--133.9--0.8722--129.7--0.8421--126.3--0.8220--122.4--0.7919--119.6--0.7618--116.5--0.7317--113.4--0.7116--110.6--0.6915--107.8--0.6714--105.1--0.6513--102.3--0.6312---99.6--0.6111---96.6--0.6010---93.9--0.58-9---91.3--0.56-8---88.3--0.54-7---84.7--0.52-6---80.7--0.50-5---76.1--0.47-4---70.3--0.44-3---64.0--0.40-2---56.6--0.36-1---50.2--0.32This is not saying much - just confirming what we already know... I just find it interesting to look at upcoming matchups if you think that Westbrook will only see the ball 18 times compared to Rudi Johnson who will have 31 touches against a tougher opponent...I find it also interesting that it seems that a near-linear function seems to exist (yards and TDs as a function of touches)... a regression is needed on these values...
With that in mind, I looked at every game played by a RB in the NFL since 1997.
I calculated the average combined yards and TDs a RB gets if he touches the ball (carries and receptions) at least a certain amount of times...
You are to read the following table this way...
On average, a RB that touches the ball at least X times should average Y combined yards and Z TDs in that game:
-X-- -Y-----Z35--176.4--1.2234--171.1--1.2033--171.0--1.1932--167.7--1.1431--163.3--1.1030--159.7--1.0829--155.5--1.0428--150.6--1.0027--147.1--1.0126--143.0--0.9725--140.1--0.9324--137.3--0.9123--133.9--0.8722--129.7--0.8421--126.3--0.8220--122.4--0.7919--119.6--0.7618--116.5--0.7317--113.4--0.7116--110.6--0.6915--107.8--0.6714--105.1--0.6513--102.3--0.6312---99.6--0.6111---96.6--0.6010---93.9--0.58-9---91.3--0.56-8---88.3--0.54-7---84.7--0.52-6---80.7--0.50-5---76.1--0.47-4---70.3--0.44-3---64.0--0.40-2---56.6--0.36-1---50.2--0.32This is not saying much - just confirming what we already know... I just find it interesting to look at upcoming matchups if you think that Westbrook will only see the ball 18 times compared to Rudi Johnson who will have 31 touches against a tougher opponent...I find it also interesting that it seems that a near-linear function seems to exist (yards and TDs as a function of touches)... a regression is needed on these values...