R. Brown at #5? (1 Viewer)

[red_stapler]

I know a lot of people consider Tiki to be the #5 guy, but I've kind of set my sights on Ronnie Brown. I'm feeling a lot of pressure to make the right choice for my #1 RB since it's a 16 team league and the pickings will be slim to say the least for a RB 2 & 3, so my first round is my workhorse. Do you think I'm making the wrong choice with Brown or do I grab Tiki and cross my fingers he defies the odds (given his age, schedule and coming off 2 great seasons)?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I know a lot of people consider Tiki to be the #5 guy, but I've kind of set my sights on Ronnie Brown. I'm feeling a lot of pressure to make the right choice for my #1 RB since it's a 16 team league and the pickings will be slim to say the least for a RB 2 & 3, so my first round is my workhorse. Do you think I'm making the wrong choice with Brown or do I grab Tiki and cross my fingers he defies the odds (given his age, schedule and coming off 2 great seasons)?

Go with the safer bet in a large 16 team league.

 

[CA_7]

:lumbergh: Milt, we're gonna need to go ahead and move you downstairs into storage B. We have some new people coming in, and we need all the space we can get. So if you could go ahead and pack up your stuff and move it down there, that would be terrific, OK? :lumbergh:

 

[amnesiac]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

 

[junk17]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

I'm in a 12 team redraft and picking at the 5 spot and am too seriously considering R.Brown there. Dont think its a bad idea at all. Watch the pre season and see what happens!!!!

 

[EBF]

I don't like it at all. He has two career 100 yard games. I'd rather go with Jackson or Caddy.

 

[red_stapler]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

I'm in a 12 team redraft and picking at the 5 spot and am too seriously considering R.Brown there. Dont think its a bad idea at all. Watch the pre season and see what happens!!!!

My draft starts 8/6 so pre-season won't really help me.

 

[Chaka]

YES!!!

I mean NO!!!

I mean...ahhhhhhh your draft is to early, way to early.

 

[J-Rock]

I've got Brown ranked as RB#14 this year. If you want the safer pick you have to take Tiki.

Brown has proved nothing. Tiki has proved he can consistently put up #1 back numbers. He had 1 down year (2003) in the past 4. Look at his numbers in 2002, 2004, 2005. He had 2000 total yards in 04 and 05 and missed 2000 by only 15 yards in 02. Even in 2003 he put up 1677 total yards.

People are down on Tiki because of his age. He's 31 and has carried the ball 1890 times in his career. When Emmitt Smith was 31 he had carried the ball 3537 times and in when he was still put up 1000-1200 yards per year for 2 more seasons. Tiki is in great shape and should be able to get it done for 4 to 5 more seasons.

Tiki is a young 31 year old back with low milage.

Don't think twice. Grab Tiki at #5 and yourself later.

 

[MLBrandow]

I've got Brown ranked as RB#14 this year. If you want the safer pick you have to take Tiki.

Brown has proved nothing. Tiki has proved he can consistently put up #1 back numbers. He had 1 down year (2003) in the past 4. Look at his numbers in 2002, 2004, 2005. He had 2000 total yards in 04 and 05 and missed 2000 by only 15 yards in 02. Even in 2003 he put up 1677 total yards.

People are down on Tiki because of his age. He's 31 and has carried the ball 1890 times in his career. When Emmitt Smith was 31 he had carried the ball 3537 times and in when he was still put up 1000-1200 yards per year for 2 more seasons. Tiki is in great shape and should be able to get it done for 4 to 5 more seasons.

Tiki is a young 31 year old back with low milage.

Don't think twice. Grab Tiki at #5 and yourself later.

 

[blenderfrog]

I have him ranked a little lower, I have the 8th pick in my main league and I'm considering R Brown... Still, after the first 3 RB's, there's a lot of questions in the next 2 tiers. If you're really feeling that Brown is the way to go when your draft comes around, go for it.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I'm as high on Ronnie as the next guy, and I believe at some point, he'll be a mainstay in the top 5. However, I think you should go with the safe bet in the early rounds. If Tiki's age worries you that much, take a look at Rudi. I'm not sold Edge will fall off in AZ. He could be another great option.

 

[cr8f]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

He was gone at #7 in a recent keeper draft. Tiki went in the 2nd round.

 

[J-Rock]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

He was gone at #7 in a recent keeper draft. Tiki went in the 2nd round.

Keeper is another story all together. Were talking Redraft, 1yr only. Tiki is the better pick for 2006.

 

[EBF]

I just can't help but see the alarming KJ/McGahee parallels. I'll sometimes gamble on potential in the early rounds, but I'm beginning to shy away from that strategy (with the occasional exception for Reggie Bush).

 

[amnesiac]

i've been bumping Brown up a little bit at a time over the last week or so as my drafts get closer.

i don't think it's a bad idea at all.

He was gone at #7 in a recent keeper draft. Tiki went in the 2nd round.

Keeper is another story all together. Were talking Redraft, 1yr only. Tiki is the better pick for 2006.

true, i am prepping for a keeper right now. still, i'm leaning towards a Jordan/Jackson/Brown tier after Portis, so if he's higher on Brown, i say go for it. i'm just not seeing the upside with Tiki.

and i guess i should clarify, Tiki is probably a safer pick, but i don't see these guys as exceptionally risky either.

 

[Gopher State]

You have to take Tiki, he's proven himself. I recall a lot of people last year saying how Kevin Jones would break out in 05, I am hearing the same talk about Brown this year. No doubt Brown could break out, but I don't think he outperforms Tiki.

Bottom line Tiki is the safe pick at #5, I think Brown is a reach IMO.

 

[mlm2495]

I'd go with Tiki. Brown has great potential this year, but Tiki is proven. I see Brown's risk as similar to Kevin Jones' risk last year. I hope Ronnie fares better than Kevin did. I think he will....but in a 16 team league, go with the safer bet.

 

[mlm2495]

sorry, didn' t see the previous reply....you read my mind!

 

[Kleck]

Take the best player left on your board. They certainly won't be available on the way back in round 2. I have no problem with people putting Brown ahead of Barber. Barber has a killer schedule and Brown will get plenty of touches this year.

 

[junk17]

Take the best player left on your board. They certainly won't be available on the way back in round 2. I have no problem with people putting Brown ahead of Barber. Barber has a killer schedule and Brown will get plenty of touches this year.

You may even want to inquire about possibly trading down just a couple spots for the 1st and 2nd rounds only if you feel R.Brown would still be there at say the 8th, 9th or 10th picks. Would mean a sooner 2nd round pick for you and you'd also go back to your original spot at 5.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I just traded Tiki for Ronnie Brown in a 12 team keeper league without PPR. But in a redraft, Tiki is the safer pick especially if your scoring includes PPR.

But taking Brown is not as risky as some might think. Tiki had a career year in 2005 and 3 solid years leading up to that. But he's 31 and may be due for a down year. I definitely see Ronnie Brown getting double digit TD's this year. Tiki will get his yards, but I think his TD's will be down from last year.

 

[dwarfboy]

Trade down

 

[Kleck]

Take the best player left on your board. They certainly won't be available on the way back in round 2. I have no problem with people putting Brown ahead of Barber. Barber has a killer schedule and Brown will get plenty of touches this year.

You may even want to inquire about possibly trading down just a couple spots for the 1st and 2nd rounds only if you feel R.Brown would still be there at say the 8th, 9th or 10th picks. Would mean a sooner 2nd round pick for you and you'd also go back to your original spot at 5.

I have to agree with dwarfboy and junk17. Trading down a few spots is a solid plan. Even it means you only move up a couple spots in the second round it would be worth it.

 

[red_stapler]

Hadn't really considered the trade down for that round. If I were to trade down for the first round what would be my best spot (out of a 16 team league). I like 11/12th, but I'm a little worried about who will be left at that point. Any thoughts?

 

[junk17]

Hadn't really considered the trade down for that round. If I were to trade down for the first round what would be my best spot (out of a 16 team league). I like 11/12th, but I'm a little worried about who will be left at that point. Any thoughts?

Depends on your league and your league mates. Look at past drafts and look at each owners tendancies. I think if you really want R.Brown, I wouldnt move past the 10th spot. But maybe in your league a few owners value QB's more or particular WR's and would draft one of them before a RB. I wouldnt move past 11 though, because I would assume every owner for the first 10 picks will pick a RB in my league. From LJ until Rudi, there are 11 solid RB's to be had imo. But like I said, I think 9 or 10 would be the spot IF you really really want R.Brown!!!!

 

[doughboydeluxe]

All of this talk about "Brown reminds me of this guy and that guy" made me want to see what the stats said about his situation...

Let's look at some RBs that had similar rookie years as Ronnie Brown and see what happened in their second year. I wasn't sure what criteria to use when talking about "similar years," so I just took all RBs who had between 800-1000 rushing yards in their rookie season (Brown had 907) for comparison's sake. If you can think of a better criteria for comparison, let me know.

Over the past 25 years, 14 RBs met the criteria set forth.

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Ronnie Brown rb 2005 24 1 15 207 907 4.38 4 32 232 7.25 1 143.902 Julius Jones rb 2004 23 1 8 197 819 4.16 7 17 109 6.41 0 134.803 William Green rb 2002 23 1 16 243 887 3.65 6 16 113 7.06 0 136.004 Marcel Shipp rb 2002 24 1 15 188 834 4.44 6 38 413 10.87 3 178.705 Ricky Williams rb 1999 22 1 12 253 884 3.49 2 28 172 6.14 0 117.606 Warrick Dunn rb 1997 22 1 16 224 978 4.37 4 39 462 11.85 3 186.007 Fred Lane rb 1997 22 1 13 182 809 4.45 7 8 27 3.38 0 125.608 Antowain Smith rb 1997 25 1 16 194 840 4.33 8 28 177 6.32 0 149.709 Rodney Thomas rb 1995 22 1 16 251 947 3.77 5 39 204 5.23 2 157.1010 Bam Morris rb 1994 22 1 15 198 836 4.22 7 22 204 9.27 0 146.0011 Leonard Russell rb 1991 22 1 16 266 959 3.61 4 18 81 4.50 0 128.0012 Johnny Johnson rb 1990 22 1 14 234 926 3.96 5 25 241 9.64 0 146.7013 Emmitt Smith rb 1990 21 1 16 241 937 3.89 11 24 228 9.50 0 182.5014 Thurman Thomas rb 1988 22 1 15 207 881 4.26 2 18 208 11.56 0 120.90Now let's look at how each one of these guys did in their second year:Julius Jones - 257/993/3.9/5, 35/218/6.2/0

Missed time due to injury during both years

William Green - 142/559/3.9/1, 10/50/5.0/0

Only played 7 games due to disciplinary reasons IIRC (possibly injury, too)

Marcell Shipp - 228/830/3.6/0, 30/184/6.1/0

Cardinals were ridiculously bad on offense, scoring a league-low 225 points. Emmitt was on this team but only got 90 carries playing in 10 games. How anyone can touch the ball 258 times and not accidentally find the end zone is beyond me.

Ricky Williams - 248/1000/4.0/8, 44/409/9.3/1

Was having a great season before getting hurt in the 10th game

Warrick Dunn - 245/1026/4.2/2, 44/344/7.8/0

Alstott got 215 carries and 8 TDs

Fred Lane - 205/717/3.5/5, 12/85/7.1/0

Panthers were the third worst rushing team in the NFL, Biakabatuka got 101 carries

Antowain Smith - 300/1124/3.7/8, 5/11/2.2/0

After splitting carries with Thurman Thomas his rookie year, Antowain got the lion's share in year two.

Rodney Thomas - 49/151/3.1/1, 13/128/9.8/0

Hello, Eddie George. Goodbye, Rodney Thomas.

Bam Morris - 148/559/3.8/9, 8/36/4.5/0

Erric Pegram got most of the work.

Leonard Russell - 266/959/3.6/4, 11/24/2.2/0

Only played in 11 games, split time with Jon Vaughn and John Stephens. Yikes.

Johnny Johnson - 196/666/3.4/4, 29/225/7.8/2

Split time with Anthony Thompson.

Emmitt Smith - 365/1563/4.3/12, 49/258/5.3/1

Welcome to Greatness

Thurman Thomas - 298/1244/4.2/6, 60/669/11.2/6

No explanation needed.

Barring injury, I think Antowain Smith's season is the floor for Brown (with more receptions), and I think his ceiling is just a little shy of Emmitt's season.

 

[TwinTurbo]

All of this talk about "Brown reminds me of this guy and that guy" made me want to see what the stats said about his situation...

Let's look at some RBs that had similar rookie years as Ronnie Brown and see what happened in their second year. I wasn't sure what criteria to use when talking about "similar years," so I just took all RBs who had between 800-1000 rushing yards in their rookie season (Brown had 907) for comparison's sake. If you can think of a better criteria for comparison, let me know.

Over the past 25 years, 14 RBs met the criteria set forth.

NAME  POS  YR  AGE  EXP  G  RSH  RSHYD  YD/RSH  RSHTD  REC  RECYD  YD/REC  RECTD  FANT PT1 Ronnie Brown rb 2005 24 1 15 207 907 4.38 4 32 232 7.25 1 143.902 Julius Jones rb 2004 23 1 8 197 819 4.16 7 17 109 6.41 0 134.803 William Green rb 2002 23 1 16 243 887 3.65 6 16 113 7.06 0 136.004 Marcel Shipp rb 2002 24 1 15 188 834 4.44 6 38 413 10.87 3 178.705 Ricky Williams rb 1999 22 1 12 253 884 3.49 2 28 172 6.14 0 117.606 Warrick Dunn rb 1997 22 1 16 224 978 4.37 4 39 462 11.85 3 186.007 Fred Lane rb 1997 22 1 13 182 809 4.45 7 8 27 3.38 0 125.608 Antowain Smith rb 1997 25 1 16 194 840 4.33 8 28 177 6.32 0 149.709 Rodney Thomas rb 1995 22 1 16 251 947 3.77 5 39 204 5.23 2 157.1010 Bam Morris rb 1994 22 1 15 198 836 4.22 7 22 204 9.27 0 146.0011 Leonard Russell rb 1991 22 1 16 266 959 3.61 4 18 81 4.50 0 128.0012 Johnny Johnson rb 1990 22 1 14 234 926 3.96 5 25 241 9.64 0 146.7013 Emmitt Smith rb 1990 21 1 16 241 937 3.89 11 24 228 9.50 0 182.5014 Thurman Thomas rb 1988 22 1 15 207 881 4.26 2 18 208 11.56 0 120.90Now let's look at how each one of these guys did in their second year:Julius Jones - 257/993/3.9/5, 35/218/6.2/0

Missed time due to injury during both years

William Green - 142/559/3.9/1, 10/50/5.0/0

Only played 7 games due to disciplinary reasons IIRC (possibly injury, too)

Marcell Shipp - 228/830/3.6/0, 30/184/6.1/0

Cardinals were ridiculously bad on offense, scoring a league-low 225 points. Emmitt was on this team but only got 90 carries playing in 10 games. How anyone can touch the ball 258 times and not accidentally find the end zone is beyond me.

Ricky Williams - 248/1000/4.0/8, 44/409/9.3/1

Was having a great season before getting hurt in the 10th game

Warrick Dunn - 245/1026/4.2/2, 44/344/7.8/0

Alstott got 215 carries and 8 TDs

Fred Lane - 205/717/3.5/5, 12/85/7.1/0

Panthers were the third worst rushing team in the NFL, Biakabatuka got 101 carries

Antowain Smith - 300/1124/3.7/8, 5/11/2.2/0

After splitting carries with Thurman Thomas his rookie year, Antowain got the lion's share in year two.

Rodney Thomas - 49/151/3.1/1, 13/128/9.8/0

Hello, Eddie George. Goodbye, Rodney Thomas.

Bam Morris - 148/559/3.8/9, 8/36/4.5/0

Erric Pegram got most of the work.

Leonard Russell - 266/959/3.6/4, 11/24/2.2/0

Only played in 11 games, split time with Jon Vaughn and John Stephens. Yikes.

Johnny Johnson - 196/666/3.4/4, 29/225/7.8/2

Split time with Anthony Thompson.

Emmitt Smith - 365/1563/4.3/12, 49/258/5.3/1

Welcome to Greatness

Thurman Thomas - 298/1244/4.2/6, 60/669/11.2/6

No explanation needed.

Barring injury, I think Antowain Smith's season is the floor for Brown (with more receptions), and I think his ceiling is just a little shy of Emmitt's season.

I think that is very good analysis. That list also includes plenty of other RB's that were drafted in the 1st round, although none as high as Ronnie Brown. Also interesting is that only 2 RB's on that list received 300 or more carries (E.Smith and A.Smith). I do think that R.Brown will get 300+ carries barring any injuries and have 10-12 total TDs.

 

[red_stapler]

thanks for the info guys, I have a lot to think about before my draft starts on 8/6. Picking at #5 I'll obviously have plenty of good backs to choose from and regardless of who I choose there is risk of injury or underperformance, so maybe I'm sweatin' it too much. Tiki has proven himself and as was pointed out, is in great shape physically, the point about Emmitt's stats when he was 31 is proof that age is not necessarily a death sentence. Brown has better upside, easier schedule, youth, and the potential for a breakout year.

Besides... championships are not won by a single player.

 

[crimsonrebel]

Dont forget to take into account how heavily yardage is weighed in your league vs TD's. Tiki will likely lose goalline carries due to his size, so hell probably have a few TD's less that Brown. If yardage is not important in your league(say 1 point per 25 yds as opposed to 1 per 10), that makes Brown a little more attractive.