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R. Wilson as a Keeper in the 4th? (1 Viewer)

skenney824

Footballguy
12 team league, Standard with 6 pts per QB TD.  Start 1 QB 2RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 ST/D 1 K.  15 round draft.  I have the 11th pick.

I have the option of keeping Russell Wilson as my 4th round pick, the 38th of the draft.  Everything I see puts him right about there as ADP but it isn't necessarily value.  Should I keep him, being that I've seen him rated as the #2-3 QB in most rankings, or take a risk to get a QB1 later and potentially better value with this pick?

Thank you

 
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downsouth

Footballguy
depends if you value the QB spot. I tend to ride the waivers for QBs all year. i personally wouldn't keep him. too many QBs later that may have great years. 

 

Brisco54

Footballguy
Wilson's current ADP is #50 overall... that's the second pick of the fifth round.

I normally never keep a player (that costs a 3rd round or less) unless I get at least a round bump by keeping them.  Why tie your hands by making the decision now if you aren't getting a significant return for doing so?

 

Gally

Footballguy
It all depends on what you are comparing it to.  If you are keeping Wilson or nobody you might as well keep him if you think that is where he should be drafted and you want to draft him.  It's not really a value pick but if you want to make sure you get Wilson then keep him.  If not, then don't. 

 

xrayveggin

Footballguy
I'm in a half PPR league, 4pts / passing TD, 6pts/ rush or rec TD, so scoring is based on that.

Last season, Wilson scored 5.27 points per game more than QB13 and 3.56 points per game more than QB8.

Last season, FLEX24 (RB/WR/TE) scored 3.3 points per game more than FLEX73, FLEX36 scores 1.79 points per game than FLEX 73.

Value above replacement is 2-3 points better per game for Wilson in the 4th than it is for a position player, and that's counting 4pts/passTD instead of 6, and giving 0.5ppr, so even if Wilson throws the ball less (with an improved run game?), it still makes more sense to keep Wilson in the 4th, at least to me.

 

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