Am I missing something? Is your max HR like 160? Checking your runs, you HR at sub 7:30 doesn’t even reach 140. I think you’re easily capable of running 3:05-3:10.
Yes, max is 160ish.
That run was pretty special. Temps were great, humidity too. If I can replicate that for the first 20 miles of the marathon, and feel like I did at the end of that run, I'll push the last 10K. Didn't even drink anything on that run. Will need to drink on the marathon, for sure. If the logistics work out, my wife is going to meet me with a bottle of caffeinated Tailwind at mile 12. I found that drink really helped me through my two ultras. I'll dabble in water stations throughout, as well.
My Vegas HM, at similar temps to Houston forecast (but WAY lower humidity), was full race effort. HR in the 150s for almost the whole thing. 1:32:31. That, times 2.2, equates to a marathon time of 3:23:32. Which is why I'm feeling like it's a reasonable goal.
On the upside, I've run almost 3,000 miles since that HM.
On the downside are temps/humidity, and the almost 20 days of trail running I did (instead of street running)
after that special 20-miler. That's a big hole in my street running training right at the wrong time. Not like two+ weeks off entirely, but still not the right kind of training.
Anyways, after
@gianmarco and
@gruecd this morning each independently told me to DBAP, here's the plan:
- First 3K (2mi): 4:50/km (7:47/mi) -- maybe there's a 3:25 pacer I can run with to keep me from my without-fail (thus far) habit of opening races fast?
- Next 15K: Work my way down to an average pace of 4:40/km (7:30/mi)
- 19K: Tailwind bottle from wife, double Naproxen
- 20-32K: Maintain 4:40/km (7:30mi)
- 32K point: Feeling like I did at the end of that special 20-miler? If yes, then push to 4:30/km for the remainder, targeting NYC qualifier of 3:14. If no, then stick with best pace I can manage.
The last time I ran Houston, I opened too fast (2 minutes off my HM PR) and then things went to hell. Would really like to avoid that this time. Granted, that was
three four years ago, and also my first marathon.
Appreciate all the support, guys. Here's hoping the weather forecast improves a bit (today was the first day it didn't get worse)!