Random Draft Thoughts (1 Viewer)

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Wanted to create a thread where all can post general thoughts/perceptions on how you think things might shake out in the upcoming draft. I'll start off with a few.

QBs

- Stafford and Sanchez will both be top-5 picks. Time and time again, teams have shown they will overdraft guys that have the potential to be franchise QBs, and both Stafford and Sanchex have at least shown that potential.

RBs

- Both Moreno and Wells will go in round 1, due to their ability to contribute in year 1. Some team will be enamored with Wells size/speed combo and Moreno's consistency will too hard to pass up.

WRs

- Michael Crabtree is the one and only WR that derserves to, and will go in the top 10 picks. There is not another WR prospect polished enough and with the upside to warrant a top pick. No Maclin or Heyward-Bey to Oakland/Jacksonville.

- Speaking of Heyward-Bey, I think he falls to round two. Teams will look at guys like Nicks and Britt who have performed well on the field before Hewyard-Bey.

- Someone will take a chance on Percy Harvin in round 1, despite the failed drug-test. Getting the next Reggie Bush/Chris Johnson type guy will trump the off-the-field issues.

OL

- Monroe, both Smiths and Oher are all gone by pick 15. Little seperates the four prospects.

DL

- Raji goes to KC at 3 (see Curry analysis in LBs).

- Tyson Jackson will be an early pick due to his ability to play the 3-4 and the number of teams now employing that scheme.

- Pass rushers will come off the baord quick. Orakpo, Maybin, Brown, Ayers, English and Johnson all look like top-25 picks.

- Peria Jerry is the top 4-3 DT and won't slide past TB.

LBs

- Maualuga is a beast and will not fall past San Diego; Junior Seau part deux..

- Curry will not go to KC and would be a reach at #5. While a solid LB, he doesn't bring the pass-rush ability of a guy like Merriman/Ware.

DBs

- Jenkins is being underrated by most due to his average 40. A team will take him higher based on his 4 years of college production.

- CBs like Moore, Davis, Smith and Butler are all borderline 1st rounders. I wouldn't be surprised to see them all slip to the 2nd.

- Same with Moore, Delmas and Chung at S. Late 1st to 2nd seems about right.

Now, I couldn't go through all that without posting my 2009 2 round mock. Not going to predict trades.

Round 1.

1. Det - Matt Stafford, QB

2. Stl - Jason Smith, OT

3. KC - BJ Raji, DT

4. Sea - Mark Sanchez, QB

5. Cle - Brian Orakpo, DE/LB

6. Cin - Eugene Monroe, OT

7. Oak - Michael Crabtree, WR

8. Jac - Andre Smith, OT

9. GB - Aaron Curry, LB

10 SF - Michael Oher, OT

11. Buf - Tyson Jackson, DE

12. Den - Chris Wells, RB

13. Was - Aaron Maybin, DE/LB

14. NO - Malcolm Jenkins, CB

15. Hou - Larry English, DE/LB

16. SD - Rey Maualuga, LB

17. NYJ - Jeremy Maclin, WR

18. Den - Michael Johnson, DE

19. TB - Peria Jerry, DT

20. Det - Brian Cushing, ILB

21. Phi - Knoshown Moreno, RB

22. Min - Percy Harvin, WR

23. NE - Everette Brown, DE/LB

24. Atl - Brandon Pettigrew, TE

25. Mia - Robert Ayers, DE/LB

26. Bal - Eben Britton, OT

27. Ind - James Laurinaitis, LB

28. Buf - William Beatty, OT

29. NYG - Clay Matthews, LB

30. Ten - Vontae Davis, CB

31. Ari - Clint Sintim, LB

32. Pit - Alex Mack, C

Round 2

33. Det - Evander Hood, DT

34. NE - Louis Delmas, S

35. Stl - Kenny Britt, S

36. Cle - Donald Brown, RB

37. Sea - Connor Barwin, LB

38. Cin - Max Unger, OL

39. Jac - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR

40. Oak - Alphonso Smith, CB

41. GB - DJ Moore, CB

42. Buf - Shawn Nelson, TE

43. SF - Josh Freeman, QB

44. Mia - Hakeem Nicks, WR

45. NYG - Brian Robiskie, WR

46. Hou - Darius Butler, CB

47. NE - Sean Smith, CB/S

48. Den - Ron Brace, DT

49. Chi - Duke Robinson, OG

50. Cle - William Moore, S

51. Dal - Patrick Chung, S

52. Phi - Jared Cook, TE

53. NYJ - LeSean McCoy, RB

54. Min - Phil Loadholt, OT

55. Atl - Paul Kruger, DE

56. Mia - Jarius Byrd, CB

57. Bal - Derrick Williams, WR

58. NE - Jason Meredith, OT

59. Car - Jason Gilbert, DT

60. NYG - Andy Levitre, OG

61. Ind - Fili Moala, DT

62. Ten - Jarrett Dillard, WR

63. Ari - Shone Greene, RB

64. Pit - Coye Francis, CB

 

[EBF]

Andre Brown goes higher than projected. LeSean McCoy falls out of the first two rounds.

 

[Adebisi]

I don't think the Pats would pass up Darius Butler at the top of the 2nd. Quite possibly not even at 23 in the 1st.

Nice writeup though.

 

[TitusIII]

Josh Freeman goes in the first round, and has a MUCH better career than Stafford and Sanchez. Check back in a decade!

 

[ditka85]

Jerry Angelo trades back so often that in the 7th round he finally realizes he has no picks left in 2009.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Crabtree to Jaguars

Wells to Packers

Moreno to Bucs

Per my 5 year old boy.

Mine -

I'll go with Raji goes to Cincy

Beanie Wells to San Diego

Moreno to Philly

Donald Brown to Indy

Moreno to Seattle (Round 2 or 3 LOL)

Crabtree to San Francisco (woo-hoo)

Sanchez to Seattle

Freeman doesn't go in Round 1.

6 WRs go in round 1

And my stone cold lock -

BigNerd aka Hoss Cartwright will say Crabtree landed in an awful situation and it doesn't matter what team he lands on.

Oh yeah, if i'm wrong on everything don't feed the crow, these are just gut feelings and nothing more from me and those picks from my 5 year old were from 2 months ago and he got zero coaching on it. The only one i'll eat crow is if BigNerd comes out and says Crabby landed in a good spot.

 

[Couch Potato]

Every mock on the planet (well, at least every one I've seen) will be wrong by pick 3, because Pioli will trade down and it won't matter to him if he gets Jimmy Johnson chart value or not. Someone will trade up to take Sanchez at that spot.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Every mock on the planet (well, at least every one I've seen) will be wrong by pick 3, because Pioli will trade down and it won't matter to him if he gets Jimmy Johnson chart value or not. Someone will trade up to take Sanchez at that spot.

Getting any pick right after pick 5 is very difficult and even the best have a very small hit rate.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Rey Maualuga is picked by SF if the four tackles, Crabtree, and the qb's are all gone.

 

[Punchie]

Bucs take a DE

 

[Day Drinker]

- I'm starting to think that if GB is targetting Tyson Jackson, that they are the ones who move down with a team that wants to move up and grab Sanchez at #9 right ahead of the 49ers. The Jags are not even considering QB at #8 IMO, so teams wanting to move up to get him can call good old Ted Thomson at and deal with him, who would love to move down and still take T. Jackson and get some extra picks.

- The Braylon deal gets done and Crabtree lands in Cleveland with the #5 pick

- Stafford signs a deal with Detroit on Friday

- Jaxonville takes Oher at #8, it is a reach, but after the O-line problems they had last year, they are ok with a slight reach there

- Boldin does NOT get traded, the Cards take defense at pick #31, not a RB

- Denver is smart and takes 2 defensive players in the 1st, it really doesn't even matter which route they go, as long as it is defense

- LaSean McCoy DOES go in the first round

- Perria Jerry ends up being the best value of the 1st round

 

[massraider]

Great idea for a thread. It'd be great if there was a list of guarantees and "never happen"s I read in various mocks. Next year we do this thread earlier.

My hard and fast guesses:

Browns go defense. I just don't see Mangini starting his regime with a WR at #5.

This Tyson Jackson-to-the-Chiefs nonsense will turn out to be....nonsense. No one wants to trade there, so they take Curry. Or an OT.

Raiders take Crabtree. And I will personally chase Todd McShay, Scott Wright, The D-bags from WalterFootball, and Mike Lombardi and #### their ####### with my ####### till they ###### and beg me to ####### them to death.

Sanchez? Aaaaaah, I dunno. 49ers or Jets.

Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Alex Mack, Michael Johnson, and Donald Brown all fall into the 2nd round.

Only Crabtree, Maclin, and H-Bey go in the first. OK, maaaaybe Britt.

Braylon traded. Boldin not traded. Ocho Cinco not traded.

Brady Quinn traded. (I really have no idea what the Browns are thinking, like everyone else, so this is a shot in the dark).

Bills take Oher at #11. I mocked it there before the trade, and really think it makles sense now. Langston Walker at LT=No Bueno.

The 320 pound+ DTs go way too early, as the 3-4 teams are desperate for NTs. Baker from Hampton, Sammie Hill from Stillman College (never heard of it? Me either), Taylor form Michigan......

The Packers wind up with one of the Boston College fatties.

Beanie Wells to the Broncos at #18.

 

[datonn]

Vikings will go RT in Round 1 (why SO many mocks have them drafting WR Percy Harvin I do not understand...especially since the memories of Randy Moss' antics off the field are still relatively fresh in the team's (and its fans') memories. In Round 2, I'll say that the Vikings will go "wildcat" and select QB Pat White as a WR and occasional "wildcat" QB. I think that scenario (instead of them going WR in round one and OT in round two) will be what plays itself out on Saturday. But, we'll see!

 

[AnonymousBob]

SF will NOT draft Sanchez.

 

[Blackjacks]

Okay, I love these things

Wells, Moreno and D. Brown all go in the first round

Stafford and Sanchez both go in the top 5

Crabtree and Macklin go in the top 10

4 offensive tackles in the top 11

Denver will draft 2 defensive players

B. Edwards does get traded to the NYG and Boldin. Ocho Cinco, Peppers and Quinn don't go anywhere.

New Orleans goes defense with their first round pick (or trades down to acquire more picks this year to spend on defense.)

Curry slides out of the top 5.....but their are 3 lb's in the top 20

Michael Johnson and Percy Harvin don't go til the 3rd round

 

[SproutDaddy]

SF will NOT draft Sanchez.

The Saints do not go offense in the 1st round, especially a RB.

 

[Bankerguy]

Talk about heart break for the Cowboys after seeing what flies off the board at 45-51. A total dagger to the heart, Chung would be a huge bummer after seeing the board at 44.

 

[FUBAR]

Indianapolis Colts 1st round pick will be a very good player

Detroit will go 1 for 3 in their first 3 picks

3 of the first 6 picks will be OT

Braylon is traded when the Giants are OTC even if Crabtree isn't a Brown

Shockingly, not all of Pittsburgh's picks are OL.

 

[TitusIII]

Bump for the day crowd...

Freeman > career than Sanchez/Stafford

 

[RockHard]

Crabtree falls out of the top ten.

 

[FUBAR]

Freeman > career than Sanchez/Stafford

Nate Davis > Freeman > Sanchez > Stafford

 

[5Rings]

SF will NOT draft Sanchez.

Nor will SF trade up to get him. Stone cold lock that us SF fans have been saying all offseason--SF won't take a QB at #10.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Crabtree falls out of the top ten.

Not going to happen.

 

[tdmills]

Freeman will bust

Stafford will be great

Sanchez will bust

Beanie will bust

Moreno will have an average to good career throughout

Every other RB isn't worth noting

Crabtree is a stud

Harvin is a gamechanger.....but never will be a great FF player b/c of touches

every other WR is average to worse

This draft class is very overrated in terms of FF.

 

[PatrickT]

Falcons not only don't trade for Gonzo, they don't take Pettigrew or Cook, they wait and grab 3rd round talent in the 5th and pick up Matt's old buddy Ryan Purvis.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

A couple KC ones -- will do more later on.

Chiefs get a trade done to move down -- or throw a curveball and go Orakpo @ 3.

KC also deals Gonzalez for a high 2nd and somehow Mack falls to them.

 

[Ed Wood]

Al Davis won't screw up what's been a pretty decent off season by drafting Heyward-Bey...I hope.

 

[massraider]

Falcons not only don't trade for Gonzo, they don't take Pettigrew or Cook, they wait and grab 3rd round talent in the 5th and pick up Matt's old buddy Ryan Purvis.

Michael A. Smith just on ESPN saying it was close to a done deal for Gonzo. Get him out of the AFC West, say I.

 

[EBF]

Percy Harvin don't go til the 3rd round

Zero chance of that happening IMO. Teams will have him as a top 15-20 talent. If he slips to the 40-50 range, someone will snap him up. More likely scenario is late first round.

 

[PatrickT]

Falcons not only don't trade for Gonzo, they don't take Pettigrew or Cook, they wait and grab 3rd round talent in the 5th and pick up Matt's old buddy Ryan Purvis.

Michael A. Smith just on ESPN saying it was close to a done deal for Gonzo. Get him out of the AFC West, say I.

Gonna go ahead and keep my day job. Oh well, suppose they could still pick up Purvis if he's there late. I like this deal better for next year's pick rather than this one's, but I'm still not in love with it.And I guess DirtyWord gets to ##### slap me now.