Randy Moss (1 Viewer)

[fflnut]

Spin off thread from the “which WR to pick with your 1.12/2.1 pick). Didn’t want to dilute that thread with this topic.

I wouldn’t spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on Moss, but if you look at his past, you could argue that he could return to a double digit TD scorer with 1k+ in yards. Yes the Pats spread the ball around more, but he should be a great red zone target and with a talented QB like Brady throwing to him should have the potential to put up some points. 1999-2006 stats for Moss below:

1999: 1413/11

2000: 1437/15

2001: 1233/10

2002: 1347/7

2003: 1632/17

2004: 767/13

2005: 1006/8 (switch to OAK)

2006: 553/3 BUST

Isn’t it conceivable that Brady could throw close to 30 TDs with the offense the Pats have this year? Since 2002 Brady has thrown over 3500 yards (with a high of 4110 in 2005 and low of 3531 last year with bad WR corp.) each season. Isn’t it also conceivable that 30-50% of that production (10-15 TDs and 1100+ yards) makes its way into Moss’ hands? Yes, Stallworth, Welker, and Watson will be involved, but a low side of 30% of Brady’s production being captured by Moss doesn’t seem too far fetched even with those guys on the team. If the above assumptions about Brady’s production hold true and Moss captures 30$ of that production, that’d put him in the top 10 – that’d be a steal at his current ADP.

High risk with the injury wild card and how he’ll fit into the team, but could be a fairly high reward as well.

 

[fflnut]

Has this been beat to death so much that it's not worth discussing anymore?

 

[gregjcross]

Moss is hit and miss because of Brady's tendancy to spray the ball.That and I hate front runners -- so R. Moss, despite his talent, is garbage to me. I root for him to fail just like T.O.

Has this been beat to death so much that it's not worth discussing anymore?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

#10 WR last year had 1310 yards and 7 TDs.

If Moss gets 10 TDs, he needs 1130 yards to match that. I can see that happening.

 

[buck naked]

No way.

 

[az_prof]

Moss has been hurt all preseason and hasn't done anything. He has no rapport developed with Brady and no experience running in this offense. He COULD be top 10; but I expect 25-40 more likely.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Could - sure

Will - I doubt it

 

[jurb26]

I root for him to fail just like T.O.

Pretty much sums up all the Moss hate.

 

[nxmehta]

Brady will throw 30 TDs, but not many will go to Moss. Heck, it's hard enough to project whether or not he will play in 80% of the games this year. Brady has plenty of targets. And he will distribute the ball to all of them fairly equally.

Can you name the last Patriots receiver to get 10+ TDs? I can't (I think you'll have to go back 10+ years to find it). I think the last receiver to go for 1000 yards was Troy Brown like 7-8 years ago.

 

[jurb26]

Glad to see the myth of NE spreading the ball around is still flying strong.

draftsthisweekend

 

[trader jake]

If Randy Moss plays in 15 or 16 games I would be shocked if he isn't a top 10 WR this season. The question becomes: How many games do you believe Randy Moss will play in this year?

 

[cstu]

#10 WR last year had 1310 yards and 7 TDs.If Moss gets 10 TDs, he needs 1130 yards to match that. I can see that happening.

He's going to need 10 TD's because the Pats haven't had a WR finish in the top 15 since Troy Brown in 2001 (101/1199/5) and he won't get the catches needed to get 1300 yards. The odds are against Moss but he one of the few guys who have 10+ TD upside. I wouldn't go out of my way to get him, but if he drops down to the right spot (WR25) then he's worth taking a shot on.

 

[az_prof]

If Randy Moss plays in 15 or 16 games I would be shocked if he isn't a top 10 WR this season. The question becomes: How many games do you believe Randy Moss will play in this year?

How many has he played in on average the past two years? That would probably be a good guage.

 

[jurb26]

#10 WR last year had 1310 yards and 7 TDs.

If Moss gets 10 TDs, he needs 1130 yards to match that. I can see that happening.

He's going to need 10 TD's because the Pats haven't had a WR finish in the top 15 since Troy Brown in 2001 (101/1199/5) and he won't get the catches needed to get 1300 yards. The odds are against Moss but he one of the few guys who have 10+ TD upside. I wouldn't go out of my way to get him, but if he drops down to the right spot (WR25) then he's worth taking a shot on.

The right spot = highway robbery?

 

[helix]

I think the better question is- will Donte Stallworth outproduce Moss? I think that wager is about even money-

 

[tombonneau]

I'm a Pats homer and I'd hate to have Moss.

Guaranteed he is going to be QUESTIONABLE on the injury report almost every game this year. Have fun setting those rosters Moss owners.

 

[cstu]

Brady will throw 30 TDs, but not many will go to Moss. Heck, it's hard enough to project whether or not he will play in 80% of the games this year. Brady has plenty of targets. And he will distribute the ball to all of them fairly equally.Can you name the last Patriots receiver to get 10+ TDs? I can't (I think you'll have to go back 10+ years to find it). I think the last receiver to go for 1000 yards was Troy Brown like 7-8 years ago.

I had to look it up but the last time was Stanley Morgan in 1986. The last time any receiver caught 8+ was Coates in 96 (9) and 97 (8). Since Morgan in 86, the only WR to get 7 TD's was Patten in 2004.

 

[cstu]

#10 WR last year had 1310 yards and 7 TDs.

If Moss gets 10 TDs, he needs 1130 yards to match that. I can see that happening.

He's going to need 10 TD's because the Pats haven't had a WR finish in the top 15 since Troy Brown in 2001 (101/1199/5) and he won't get the catches needed to get 1300 yards. The odds are against Moss but he one of the few guys who have 10+ TD upside. I wouldn't go out of my way to get him, but if he drops down to the right spot (WR25) then he's worth taking a shot on.

The right spot = highway robbery?

For me that's when the risk becomes worth it. IMO, the headache of owning Moss isn't going to be worth the couple of games where he blows up. His production will be erratic and I'd rather have the steady production of a guy like Cotchery who I know is going to get a lot of targets.

 

[Rogi]

No

 

[simmonjm]

I think the better question is- will Donte Stallworth outproduce Moss? I think that wager is about even money-

I dont think you can say its even money. Stallworth has a more checkered injury history when compared to Moss add in the fact that Moss is clearly more talented and I think it would be odds of 5:2 (Moss as the favorite) not straight up.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Brady will throw 30 TDs, but not many will go to Moss. Heck, it's hard enough to project whether or not he will play in 80% of the games this year. Brady has plenty of targets. And he will distribute the ball to all of them fairly equally.Can you name the last Patriots receiver to get 10+ TDs? I can't (I think you'll have to go back 10+ years to find it). I think the last receiver to go for 1000 yards was Troy Brown like 7-8 years ago.

Brady will throw 30 TDs, but not many will go to the Patriots' best deep threat and goal line option? IF Moss plays 16 games, he is a mortal lock for double digit TDs... Can you name the last Patriots receiver talented enough to catch 10+ TDs?Chicken? Egg? Chicken? Egg?:McNabbOwens:

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

I have this weird feeling that Belichick is going to unleash Moss right off the bat, with this "See, you dumb motherfathers, this is how you use Randy Moss -- it ain't that hard" attitude. I've had 180 and 3 in week 1 sticking in my head ever since the Pats got him.

 

[Penguin]

It's not going to happen. He'd need a season of around 1200/10 to finish in the top 10 and I don't think he's going to acheive those numbers either because of Brady spreading the ball around between Randy, Stallworth, Welker, Maroney, Faulk, Gafney, Watson etc. and due to Moss' high propensity to get knicked up, I just don't see it happening. Is it possible, with a talent like Moss absolutely, will it happen, not likely. I have Moss around 950 yds & 8 TD's this year.

 

[shakeybarn]

Spin off thread from the “which WR to pick with your 1.12/2.1 pick). Didn’t want to dilute that thread with this topic.I wouldn’t spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on Moss, but if you look at his past, you could argue that he could return to a double digit TD scorer with 1k+ in yards. Yes the Pats spread the ball around more, but he should be a great red zone target and with a talented QB like Brady throwing to him should have the potential to put up some points. 1999-2006 stats for Moss below:1999: 1413/112000: 1437/152001: 1233/102002: 1347/72003: 1632/172004: 767/132005: 1006/8 (switch to OAK)2006: 553/3 BUSTIsn’t it conceivable that Brady could throw close to 30 TDs with the offense the Pats have this year? Since 2002 Brady has thrown over 3500 yards (with a high of 4110 in 2005 and low of 3531 last year with bad WR corp.) each season. Isn’t it also conceivable that 30-50% of that production (10-15 TDs and 1100+ yards) makes its way into Moss’ hands? Yes, Stallworth, Welker, and Watson will be involved, but a low side of 30% of Brady’s production being captured by Moss doesn’t seem too far fetched even with those guys on the team. If the above assumptions about Brady’s production hold true and Moss captures 30$ of that production, that’d put him in the top 10 – that’d be a steal at his current ADP.High risk with the injury wild card and how he’ll fit into the team, but could be a fairly high reward as well.

Ridiculous assumption.. MCnabb with TO threw 17 TDs to WRs.... and last year with freaking Stallworth as the 1,.... and only 10 games.. 18 TDs to WRs.

 

[shakeybarn]

my point is.. given the offense and the style...don't expect much of a change from Brady himself...

 

[nxmehta]

Brady will throw 30 TDs, but not many will go to Moss. Heck, it's hard enough to project whether or not he will play in 80% of the games this year. Brady has plenty of targets. And he will distribute the ball to all of them fairly equally.Can you name the last Patriots receiver to get 10+ TDs? I can't (I think you'll have to go back 10+ years to find it). I think the last receiver to go for 1000 yards was Troy Brown like 7-8 years ago.

I had to look it up but the last time was Stanley Morgan in 1986. The last time any receiver caught 8+ was Coates in 96 (9) and 97 (8). Since Morgan in 86, the only WR to get 7 TD's was Patten in 2004.

WOW those are some crazy numbers. Says a lot about the Pats' passing game, considering they won a bunch of Super Bowls in that stretch. History is not in your favor Randy Moss.

 

[rundave]

There has always been the question of whether Moss would give his best effort, now there is also the question of whether his best effort is good enough. He seems like the kind of player who just slides by on talent, and for years he had plenty. Now he is on the wrong side of 30, and his talent is not enough anymore without the effort. If he has the desire and puts in the effort, he can still be great, but I'd like to see a good year out of him first. He has disappointed the last 3 years, I won't be surprised if he does it again.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I don't see how people can have Tom Brady in the top 2 or 3 qbs this season yet not have Randy Moss among the top 20 wide receivers. That don't make sense to me. Just how much are people expecting out of Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth?

I remember when this guy was a first or second round pick nearly every season. Sometimes it may not have worked out. Most of the time it did. Randy Moss' value is at an all-time low right now.

I'm not gonna waste time trying to convince people that Randy Moss isn't done at 30 or that he's playing with his best quarterback ever or that the Patriots actually have an offensive line. If you think he's worth the risk and potential upside (fatal words in FF I know) you'll take a chance. If not you won't.

 

[Mmen of Steel]

Wes Welker will have more TDs than Randy Moss.

 

[Pocket Joker]

There hasn't been a NE receiver ever get more than 7 TDs over the past several years, or accumulate a sick amount of yards/catches.

No way.

 

[Sylira21]

It's possible he's top ten...but there are too many risks associated with him for my blood.

The problem is that SOMEONE in every league is probably going to think he's going to explode, so he'll be valued as a top 10 WR. That's what you'll probably have to spend in draft position or $$ to get him. His ADP, in my opinion, already has pretty much all the upside possible factored in.

And I owned Moss for four of his biggest years with the Vikings, and just loved the production he had. He was great...but I need better proof he's great again before taking him that high.

 

[Rogi]

He's a big risk in my opinion. He becomes a value pick at some point, but usually somebody grabs him too early. I guess I wouldn't use an early pick on him when there are more consistent receivers out there to choose from. Moss can still be productive, but I think his best days are behind him and I don't think he's going to suddenly explode this year.

 

[Neo]

Wes Welker will have more TDs in his career than Randy Moss this season.

Fixed.Isn't that what you really meant? C'mon how can you possibly say that. The only way Welker has more TD's then Moss this year is if Moss gets hurt and is out for the season.

 

[mo542]

I picked up Moss in the 5th round of a 12 team redraft. I’m skeptical, but I think I got decent value. I’ll be very interested to see what Brady does with Moss because he has never had a WR with Moss’s talent. Remember that Philly spread the ball around before they (and after) they got TO; TO got more than his far share of targets in Philly despite the team’s philosophy.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

IMO, Moss will be a huge TD machine for Brady. That's because it's what he does. New England got other receivers like Stallworth, Welker & Watson to troll the middle of the field and take the tough catches. For Moss, I figure they'll take their shots downfield with him to 1) have him convert 2) spread out the rest of the field for everyone else. Once they start getting into scoring range, Moss can use his still lethal "jump ball" skills to convert.

I suspct Moss will have something between 55-60 catches, but his YPR will be in the 17-18 range again. So he'll be in the 950-1000 range, but in the red zone he's going to kill. 11-12 TD's

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I picked up Moss in the 5th round of a 12 team redraft. I’m skeptical, but I think I got decent value. I’ll be very interested to see what Brady does with Moss because he has never had a WR with Moss’s talent. Remember that Philly spread the ball around before they (and after) they got TO; TO got more than his far share of targets in Philly despite the team’s philosophy.

This is a very good point. Philly has never had a talent like TO, and neither has NE. They'd be nuts not to use this guy to his skill level, and Billichek (never spell it right) is VERY good at using players talents in the offense.I like Moss this year. I'd say 60 catches for 1100 and 12 tds seems about right.

 

[vichawkfan]

how many 4th -5th round WR's are going to have the potential to score 10+TD's? UUMMMM....one, Moss.

how many people remember T.O.'s first season in Phili? I remember FF world 50/50 on him - he was either going to be a huge flop or going to score 10+ TD's, and if my math is correct he was approx 31yrs old at the time.

 

[turleyfan]

Could he be? Absolutely.

Will he? According to his trends, my magic 8-Ball, and, well, the fact that for all intents and purposes, he still hasn't begun training camp yet, all signs point to 'no'.

But if you have stabilized production at your other areas (meaning, you haven't taken risks in positions you should be counting on), I think he makes a wise mid-round gamble as a WR2 or, better yet, WR3.

 

[Mmen of Steel]

Wes Welker will have more TDs in his career than Randy Moss this season.

Fixed.Isn't that what you really meant? C'mon how can you possibly say that. The only way Welker has more TD's then Moss this year is if Moss gets hurt and is out for the season.

Nope. I mean this year, head-to-head. Randy Moss is either a) still hurt or b) prone to miss more time to a new injury.

Welker has had a solid preseason and Brady has given him a good # of targets.

 

[GreenNGold]

Wes Welker will have more TDs in his career than Randy Moss this season.

Fixed.Isn't that what you really meant? C'mon how can you possibly say that. The only way Welker has more TD's then Moss this year is if Moss gets hurt and is out for the season.

Nope. I mean this year, head-to-head. Randy Moss is either a) still hurt or b) prone to miss more time to a new injury.

Welker has had a solid preseason and Brady has given him a good # of targets.

Welker is the best WR on the Patriots right now. Moss is no longer the same Moss that we used to see on the Vikings, yet no one realizes it. Everyone thinks he will sill return to old form, but that is just not going to happen. Once a player starts doggin' it, his intensity and that fire in your stomach to play the game is just gone. It's just gone. Moss will never be more than a mediorce receiver for the rest of his career. He is only playing based on his past reputation right now.

 

[bullitt]

There hasn't been a NE receiver ever get more than 7 TDs over the past several years, or accumulate a sick amount of yards/catches. No way.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Glad to see the myth of NE spreading the ball around is still flying strong. draftsthisweekend

Yup. It's good shtick."NE spreads the ball around too much...", "when was the last time NE had a receiver with more than 7 TD's in a season..."And any variation of "Moss has lost a step..." "Moss will quit on the team and be a locker room cancer..." "Moss isn't even the best receiver on his team..." Etc, etc. It's not brain surgery guys. It's Tom Brady, and it's Randy Moss. They will be the most prolific passing tandem this year and Randy Moss is an easy lock for top 10. Hell, he's a lock for top 5 and probably top 3. Stop over thinking it. Draft him and win your damn league. It's gotta be more fun than repeating insane statements that don't even make sense.

 

[vichawkfan]

Glad to see the myth of NE spreading the ball around is still flying strong. draftsthisweekend

Yup. It's good shtick."NE spreads the ball around too much...", "when was the last time NE had a receiver with more than 7 TD's in a season..."And any variation of "Moss has lost a step..." "Moss will quit on the team and be a locker room cancer..." "Moss isn't even the best receiver on his team..." Etc, etc. It's not brain surgery guys. It's Tom Brady, and it's Randy Moss. They will be the most prolific passing tandem this year and Randy Moss is an easy lock for top 10. Hell, he's a lock for top 5 and probably top 3. Stop over thinking it. Draft him and win your damn league. It's gotta be more fun than repeating insane statements that don't even make sense.

it seems too easy, too simple.....and yet Moss was/is the best statistical WR before age 30 to ever play. Now he's 30ish and playing with a guy that some agrue was better than Montana.like he said - it's not brain surgery folks.

 

[yinzer]

im not even gonna quote anything because there's too much that I agree and disagree with posted here.

Yes, the Pats and Brady spread the ball around, but as has been stated, Moss, and even Stallworth, are supreme talent to what Brady has thrown to in his career. C'mon, Gaffney and Caldwell?!?

Anyway, Branch was basically a 1K WR a yr or 2 ago, and going to SEA certainly didnt make him look any better, so 1K is within reach for Moss if hes on the field.

As far as TD's, he SHOULD be gold. I know Brady spreads the tosses and they got Maroney, but you know theyre gonna be in the red zone often, and the dont have a legit #2 RB anymore, so I agree with the statements that Brady gets around 30 and Moss gets around 10, possibly more, esp with a Stallworth injury (which is more likely than a Moss injury)

Right now I have Moss at #15, pegged for 1030yds and 9, but going 20 pts to each side of him puts him at #12 and #24, so judging by value I think he's a lot closer to a borderline #1 WR than a #2

With that in mind, he usually gets taken too early or someone like Lee Evans slides to me, and I have yet to take him so his value is really hard to determine

 

[hotdogcollars]

from profootballtalk.com, Moss may not even make the team:

POSTED 8:28 a.m. EDT; UPDATED 8:55 a.m. EDT, September 1, 2007MOSS ON THE BUBBLE?There's talk among some league insiders that the New England Patriots are considering whether to release receiver Randy Moss.Seriously.We scoffed when we heard it, but then a source explained that the question the Pats are believed to be pondering is whether Moss will become a problem if he is not a focal point of the offense -- or if he isn't in the opening-day starting lineup.And we agree that this sounds crazy. Exactly as crazy as, say, any rumors that would have been making the rounds on Friday morning that the Jaguars were planning to part ways with Byron Leftwich.Moss currently is listed as one of the starters at receiver, along with Donte' Stallworth. But Moss suffered a pulled hamstring several weeks ago and has seen only limited duty since then, opening the door for other wideouts to show what they can do.If this rumor is true, the only logical explanation is that the Pats are wrestling with whether Moss is a luxury that they don't need in order to be successful -- and whether his presence could actually keep them from their goals if he is unhappy with his role.As we see it, however, it would be easy enough to dump him if he turns out to be a problem. The only financial risk would be his $2.5 million base salary, which becomes guaranteed if he's on the roster when the regular season begins (if he is released and chooses to take the rest of the money as his one-time termination pay). Then again, maybe coach Bill Belichick doesn't want to divert his attention from getting the team ready to play by monitoring whether a grown man is behaving like one.The situation bears watching as Saturday unfolds. Even if Moss stays, there's sure to be plenty of upheaval at the receiver position as final cuts are made, given that ten receivers are still on the roster, including Moss, Stallworth, Wes Welker, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Kelley Washington, Bam Childress, Kelvin Kight, Chris Dunlap, and C.J. Jones. (Chad Jackson and Troy Brown are still on the PUP list.)

Granted this could be a typical BB media head game, or perhaps a ploy to motivate Moss (thanks Shanny), or maybe just a wrong rumor from PFT. But, i dont think it can be a good sign that Moss's status on the team is being questioned, let alone his potential for a big year

 

[PatsFanCT]

from profootballtalk.com, Moss may not even make the team:

POSTED 8:28 a.m. EDT; UPDATED 8:55 a.m. EDT, September 1, 2007MOSS ON THE BUBBLE?There's talk among some league insiders that the New England Patriots are considering whether to release receiver Randy Moss.Seriously.We scoffed when we heard it, but then a source explained that the question the Pats are believed to be pondering is whether Moss will become a problem if he is not a focal point of the offense -- or if he isn't in the opening-day starting lineup.And we agree that this sounds crazy. Exactly as crazy as, say, any rumors that would have been making the rounds on Friday morning that the Jaguars were planning to part ways with Byron Leftwich.Moss currently is listed as one of the starters at receiver, along with Donte' Stallworth. But Moss suffered a pulled hamstring several weeks ago and has seen only limited duty since then, opening the door for other wideouts to show what they can do.If this rumor is true, the only logical explanation is that the Pats are wrestling with whether Moss is a luxury that they don't need in order to be successful -- and whether his presence could actually keep them from their goals if he is unhappy with his role.As we see it, however, it would be easy enough to dump him if he turns out to be a problem. The only financial risk would be his $2.5 million base salary, which becomes guaranteed if he's on the roster when the regular season begins (if he is released and chooses to take the rest of the money as his one-time termination pay). Then again, maybe coach Bill Belichick doesn't want to divert his attention from getting the team ready to play by monitoring whether a grown man is behaving like one.The situation bears watching as Saturday unfolds. Even if Moss stays, there's sure to be plenty of upheaval at the receiver position as final cuts are made, given that ten receivers are still on the roster, including Moss, Stallworth, Wes Welker, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Kelley Washington, Bam Childress, Kelvin Kight, Chris Dunlap, and C.J. Jones. (Chad Jackson and Troy Brown are still on the PUP list.)

Granted this could be a typical BB media head game, or perhaps a ploy to motivate Moss (thanks Shanny), or maybe just a wrong rumor from PFT. But, i dont think it can be a good sign that Moss's status on the team is being questioned, let alone his potential for a big year

I don't see quotes from BB or anyone else from the league insiders. This could be nothing more than a fluff piece by a reporter who spends too much time on reportersguys.com reading posts from Moss bashers who can't stand the thought of him succeeding in New England.

 

[fflnut]

Looked pretty damn good today. Especially for not having practiced very much...

 

[jurb26]

The haters were funny all off-season. Now, it's just hilarious.

 

[Tom Baker]

Thread bumps dead ahead . . .

 

[The Gator]

The haters were funny all off-season. Now, it's just hilarious.

Your hating of LJ last year was hilarious.