DanFouts
Footballguy
Agree....Turner will be top 10-15 next year. I see him Top 10 in 09 with possibility of Top 5....
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Rank the top 10 RB over next 5 years. (current NFL) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SCT
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geoff8695
Footballguy
Five years is an eternity when talking about RBs. I prefer to look at 3 years which would be a slightly different list, but you said five so here's mine in Non-PPR. When attempting to project 5 years for dynasty RBs the paradigm I'm going to adhere to is that you should work on acquiring guys under the age of 26 who have demonstrated early on in their careers that they are capable of top 10 production. (early on means no later than 2nd year). There are exceptions, but the majority of my top 10 are going to fit this paradigm.
1. ADP – I’m worried about him staying healthy, but his talent is unquestionable. If he continues to produce, most start up dynasty leagues will see him drafted #1 in '08.
2. LT2 - Still has two or three top 5 finishes left in him but he will be at the end of his illustrious career within five years time.
3. MJD - I'm a BIG believer that he will be able to handle the full load. The best is yet to come...
4. Addai - Indy is perhaps the best RB situation in the NFL, and Addai is pretty good also, but can he carry a full load?
5. FWP - IMO Willie is the most underrated RB in the NFL, he already handles a full load and is in a great situation with great young talent accompanying him on the Steelers offense.
6. Barber - Assuming he takes over as the workhorse back for the next few years
7. Lynch - Young up and coming multipurpose back on a cold weather run first team.
8. LJ - Would easily be in my top 5 if projecting three years or less, but you said five. No way does he last that long.
9. Turner - Stuck behind LT2 until '08, when he will validate my mancrush! If he lands on the right team I feel he's a fixture in the top 5 for the next few years.
10. Bush - Top 10 talent, but I don't think he is suited to carry the full load, thereby limiting his ceiling.
11. Gore - Young and talented enough to be top 5, but I'm scared of injuries and surgically repaired knees
12. KJ - Top 10 ability but injury concerns keep him near the bottom of my top 10 list.
13. Westbrook – Injury prone and not getting any younger
14. Portis - He is still young enough, but I don't think his body can handle another five years.
15. ???Whoever follows Rudi in Cincinatti will be a good candidate for top 10 production.
When looking so far ahead I think you have to look primarily at age/mileage, talent, and running style. IMO the power RBs and guys with a lot of mileage or injury history will be unable to sustain top 10 production over a five year period. Guys like LJ, Gore, Westbrook, Portis, KJ, McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Etc. are talented enough but I don't expect their bodies to cooperate for another five years.
1. ADP – I’m worried about him staying healthy, but his talent is unquestionable. If he continues to produce, most start up dynasty leagues will see him drafted #1 in '08.
2. LT2 - Still has two or three top 5 finishes left in him but he will be at the end of his illustrious career within five years time.
3. MJD - I'm a BIG believer that he will be able to handle the full load. The best is yet to come...
4. Addai - Indy is perhaps the best RB situation in the NFL, and Addai is pretty good also, but can he carry a full load?
5. FWP - IMO Willie is the most underrated RB in the NFL, he already handles a full load and is in a great situation with great young talent accompanying him on the Steelers offense.
6. Barber - Assuming he takes over as the workhorse back for the next few years
7. Lynch - Young up and coming multipurpose back on a cold weather run first team.
8. LJ - Would easily be in my top 5 if projecting three years or less, but you said five. No way does he last that long.
9. Turner - Stuck behind LT2 until '08, when he will validate my mancrush! If he lands on the right team I feel he's a fixture in the top 5 for the next few years.
10. Bush - Top 10 talent, but I don't think he is suited to carry the full load, thereby limiting his ceiling.
11. Gore - Young and talented enough to be top 5, but I'm scared of injuries and surgically repaired knees
12. KJ - Top 10 ability but injury concerns keep him near the bottom of my top 10 list.
13. Westbrook – Injury prone and not getting any younger
14. Portis - He is still young enough, but I don't think his body can handle another five years.
15. ???Whoever follows Rudi in Cincinatti will be a good candidate for top 10 production.
When looking so far ahead I think you have to look primarily at age/mileage, talent, and running style. IMO the power RBs and guys with a lot of mileage or injury history will be unable to sustain top 10 production over a five year period. Guys like LJ, Gore, Westbrook, Portis, KJ, McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Etc. are talented enough but I don't expect their bodies to cooperate for another five years.
Fear The Turtle
Footballguy
Exactly as I see it. I've paid for my ticket on the bus, too.Agree totally. He has burst, and when he gets in open field he shows it. He still has moves too, he looks great! I think he has gotten better throughout the year, and I like him now and going forward. He is doing this with a makeshift offensive line, and a very poor passing game. Teams are trying to stop Portis. The JETS had 8 guys in box the entire time, and he wore them down. He delivers a blow every time. He has decent hands (they should get ball to him in space more often in passing game) and he is one of top blocking backs in league (reason why he does not come out too often).I've seen every carry of his since he came to Washington. Saying he has "no explosion" is an exaggeration. Is it what he it used to be? Probably not. But, I wouldn't say he's declined to the point of a 34 year old. He finally had holes to run through against the Jets and hit them well. He hadn't had holes like that since week 1 against Miami.He's still one of the better backs in the league at the age of 26 and it shocks me that NOBODY has him in their top 10 so far in this thread.Anyone that's watched him this year has seen a guy that looks NOTHING like the Denver guy. It looks like he has no explosion anymore. I like the guy and he gives his all, but watching him run is totally different now.
Banger
Footballguy
5 years? It's a nearly worthless prediction IMO.
This is the top 10 from 3 years ago....
1 Shaun Alexander rb 2004 353 1696 4.80 79 16 306.60
2 Tiki Barber rb 2004 322 1518 4.71 77 13 299.60
3 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2004 339 1335 3.94 69 17 287.50
4 Curtis Martin rb 2004 369 1694 4.59 90 12 277.90
5 Domanick Williams rb 2004 302 1188 3.93 57 13 261.60
6 Edgerrin James rb 2004 334 1548 4.63 73 9 257.10
7 Corey Dillon rb 2004 345 1635 4.74 81 12 251.80
8 Rudi Johnson rb 2004 362 1457 4.02 75 12 226.10
9 Willis McGahee rb 2004 284 1128 3.97 64 13 207.70
10 Brian Westbrook rb 2004 178 808 4.54 38 3 205.10
To try and use this as a predictor of the future outside of LT is a waste of time IMO. All you need to know is that Peterson will be good as should still be around, everyone else is a total crapshoot (especially since probably 1/2 of them aren't even in the league yet).
This is the top 10 from 3 years ago....
1 Shaun Alexander rb 2004 353 1696 4.80 79 16 306.60
2 Tiki Barber rb 2004 322 1518 4.71 77 13 299.60
3 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2004 339 1335 3.94 69 17 287.50
4 Curtis Martin rb 2004 369 1694 4.59 90 12 277.90
5 Domanick Williams rb 2004 302 1188 3.93 57 13 261.60
6 Edgerrin James rb 2004 334 1548 4.63 73 9 257.10
7 Corey Dillon rb 2004 345 1635 4.74 81 12 251.80
8 Rudi Johnson rb 2004 362 1457 4.02 75 12 226.10
9 Willis McGahee rb 2004 284 1128 3.97 64 13 207.70
10 Brian Westbrook rb 2004 178 808 4.54 38 3 205.10
To try and use this as a predictor of the future outside of LT is a waste of time IMO. All you need to know is that Peterson will be good as should still be around, everyone else is a total crapshoot (especially since probably 1/2 of them aren't even in the league yet).
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I agree. I'm surprised so few people have Michael Turner and MBIII on their lists...
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Chris Henry (Tenn) is an great sleeper if your talking about top 10 RBs..
Corporation
Angry Bovine
Addai - Best situation, doesn't take a lot of hits
LT - Best RB of the generation
AP - Outstanding talent, worried about durability or he'd be #1
SJax - See AP
MJD - Terrific runner in a run first offense, carries full load starting next year
FWP - See MJD, doesn't get the scores though
MBIII - I think he will put up really great numbers provided he's not splitting carries
Lynch - Good talent on run first offense
R. Bush - Dripping with talent but not a traditional runner, spectacular in PPR leagues
R. Brown - Another durability concern
LT - Best RB of the generation
AP - Outstanding talent, worried about durability or he'd be #1
SJax - See AP
MJD - Terrific runner in a run first offense, carries full load starting next year
FWP - See MJD, doesn't get the scores though
MBIII - I think he will put up really great numbers provided he's not splitting carries
Lynch - Good talent on run first offense
R. Bush - Dripping with talent but not a traditional runner, spectacular in PPR leagues
R. Brown - Another durability concern
