Englishteacher
Footballguy
*******NEW Rankings March 14, 2016******
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THIS THREAD IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION. CHECK FOR NEW ADDITIONS.
This thread will attempt to do the following:
1. Give suggestions on how to value your dynasty years (i.e., year one 20%, year two 16%, year three 12.8%) for when you are weighing first year(s) production versus future potential in dynasty play as a whole (even across positions). (For this, see post 13)
"That would break your valuation % by year down like this: 20, 16, 12.8, 10.2, 9.2, 7.4, 5.9, 4.7, 3.8, 3, 2.4, 1.9, 1.5, 1.2."
2. Give a rough approximation of the depreciation of a running back as he progresses through his career in dynasty terms. Or, roughly what percentage of his career contribution he's made in any given year in longevity terms. (for an example, see post 16)
3. Combine the 80/20 principle (below) and Quality Years Remaining with a performance metric to create a RB dynasty ranking. In addition, the 80/20 principle would predict aggregate deterioration of said performance skills and subsequent devaluation through time. See below.
Kudos's to Bruce Hammond for introducing me to Quality Years Remaining. LINK: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=244365
The 80/20 principle I'm sure many of you have heard of. I believe I picked it up from The One Minute Manager by Johnson & Blanchard. *** Link to The One Minute Manager: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0688014291/?tag=googhydr-20&hvadid=36325575518&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=6398134454746903254&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_3g6h9xzhgk_b *** Basically, "80% of your good comes from 20% of your work". You know, the most important work you do, about 20% of it, constitutes the bulk of your quality production/output/results. Priorities are important. First things first. Delaying gratification. After allocating your most attention, effort, and resources to the most important things, taking care of the "big rock first rather than the pebbles and sand", its a principle of diminishing returns.
However, who DOESN'T like immediate gratification? I mean, don't you want to win your FF championship in 2014 rather than wait till 2020 when HAL takes over (hope I got that movie reference right)?
So, getting started.
What I've done is combined the QYR and 80/20 principles here and applied them to fantasy football. I'm sure this isn't any different than what you guys already do. But, I took a few minutes and broke down the math in combining the two. Here goes, enjoy!
First, you do want to win in 2014 right? Fill the championship mug up with a cold beverage and grin at all your league mates? That should be priority one. We want our ice cream NOW don't we?
The first year is the year we want to win the most so we assign it the highest value. If you get around to it in a dynasty start up draft, maybe a rule of thumb would be to assign 80% of your resources to guys that will help you win year one. What's the output of your work? A Championship! That's great! But you know what's greater than winning a championship? Winning MULTIPLE championships! But you can't win multiple without getting the first one. So, the percentage of importance of the first championship, in your dynastic run, is 20. You put 80% of your draft picks into winning your first championship and took flyers on some high upside flyers later. The 80/20 rule. Remember, you can't win two, three, four, etc, without the first though. So, subsequent years are not as important as you first ring (or cheap $15 trophy for must of us).
Le's move on, what does this have to do with RB dynasty rankings? Well, following, I'm showing you he math and how it applies to RB's of all ages. RB's are easier to do this with because the run game is easier to master than the pass. You guys know well the 3rd year breakout rule for WR's and TE's and that QB's take time o develop. But, RB's are more plug and play, so this works nicely.
Here goes!
AGE SEASON 1 YEAR VALUATION % AGGREGATE VALUATION CONTRIBUTED %
23 1 20 20
24 2 16 36
25 3 12.8 48.8
26 4 10.2 59
27 5 9.2 68.2
28 6 7.4 75.6
29 7 5.9 81.5
30 8 4.7 86.2
31 9 3.8 90
32 10 3 93
33 11 2.4 95.4
34 12 1.9 97.3
35 13 1.5 98.8
36 14 1.2 100
Obviously, you'd rather have Eddie Lacy than Fred Jackson in dynasty despite vague ballpark production in 2013.
Next, a table showing a RB's physical ability or likelihood of performing to optimum skill capacity through time.
AGE SEASON 1 YEAR DEPRECIATION % AGGREGATE DEPRECIATION % % of ORIGINAL PERFORMANCE CAPACITY
23 1 0 0 100
24 2 1.2 1.2 98.8
25 3 1.5 2.7 97.3
26 4 1.9 4.6 96.4
27 5 2.4 7.0 93
28 6 3.0 10.0 90
29 7 3.8 13.8 86.2
30 8 4.7 18.5 81.5
31 9 5.9 24.4 76.6
32 10 7.4 31.8 68.2
33 11 9.2 41.0 59.0
34 12 10.2 51.2 48.8
35 13 12.8 64.0 36.0
36 14 16.0 80.0 20.0
Later, I will show how you can use the two tables together using a performance metric (individual player grade) in a given year to predict overall remaining value in a career with a specified number that you can compare with other players (rank by highest number).
I'm going to leave this first post off here, let you guys comment, and also work on another post in this thread to fill you in on some ways I'm using this to value RB's.
Have at it!
Scroll Down
THIS THREAD IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION. CHECK FOR NEW ADDITIONS.
This thread will attempt to do the following:
1. Give suggestions on how to value your dynasty years (i.e., year one 20%, year two 16%, year three 12.8%) for when you are weighing first year(s) production versus future potential in dynasty play as a whole (even across positions). (For this, see post 13)
"That would break your valuation % by year down like this: 20, 16, 12.8, 10.2, 9.2, 7.4, 5.9, 4.7, 3.8, 3, 2.4, 1.9, 1.5, 1.2."
2. Give a rough approximation of the depreciation of a running back as he progresses through his career in dynasty terms. Or, roughly what percentage of his career contribution he's made in any given year in longevity terms. (for an example, see post 16)
3. Combine the 80/20 principle (below) and Quality Years Remaining with a performance metric to create a RB dynasty ranking. In addition, the 80/20 principle would predict aggregate deterioration of said performance skills and subsequent devaluation through time. See below.
Kudos's to Bruce Hammond for introducing me to Quality Years Remaining. LINK: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=244365
The 80/20 principle I'm sure many of you have heard of. I believe I picked it up from The One Minute Manager by Johnson & Blanchard. *** Link to The One Minute Manager: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0688014291/?tag=googhydr-20&hvadid=36325575518&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=6398134454746903254&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_3g6h9xzhgk_b *** Basically, "80% of your good comes from 20% of your work". You know, the most important work you do, about 20% of it, constitutes the bulk of your quality production/output/results. Priorities are important. First things first. Delaying gratification. After allocating your most attention, effort, and resources to the most important things, taking care of the "big rock first rather than the pebbles and sand", its a principle of diminishing returns.
However, who DOESN'T like immediate gratification? I mean, don't you want to win your FF championship in 2014 rather than wait till 2020 when HAL takes over (hope I got that movie reference right)?
So, getting started.
What I've done is combined the QYR and 80/20 principles here and applied them to fantasy football. I'm sure this isn't any different than what you guys already do. But, I took a few minutes and broke down the math in combining the two. Here goes, enjoy!
First, you do want to win in 2014 right? Fill the championship mug up with a cold beverage and grin at all your league mates? That should be priority one. We want our ice cream NOW don't we?
The first year is the year we want to win the most so we assign it the highest value. If you get around to it in a dynasty start up draft, maybe a rule of thumb would be to assign 80% of your resources to guys that will help you win year one. What's the output of your work? A Championship! That's great! But you know what's greater than winning a championship? Winning MULTIPLE championships! But you can't win multiple without getting the first one. So, the percentage of importance of the first championship, in your dynastic run, is 20. You put 80% of your draft picks into winning your first championship and took flyers on some high upside flyers later. The 80/20 rule. Remember, you can't win two, three, four, etc, without the first though. So, subsequent years are not as important as you first ring (or cheap $15 trophy for must of us).
Le's move on, what does this have to do with RB dynasty rankings? Well, following, I'm showing you he math and how it applies to RB's of all ages. RB's are easier to do this with because the run game is easier to master than the pass. You guys know well the 3rd year breakout rule for WR's and TE's and that QB's take time o develop. But, RB's are more plug and play, so this works nicely.
Here goes!
AGE SEASON 1 YEAR VALUATION % AGGREGATE VALUATION CONTRIBUTED %
23 1 20 20
24 2 16 36
25 3 12.8 48.8
26 4 10.2 59
27 5 9.2 68.2
28 6 7.4 75.6
29 7 5.9 81.5
30 8 4.7 86.2
31 9 3.8 90
32 10 3 93
33 11 2.4 95.4
34 12 1.9 97.3
35 13 1.5 98.8
36 14 1.2 100
Obviously, you'd rather have Eddie Lacy than Fred Jackson in dynasty despite vague ballpark production in 2013.
Next, a table showing a RB's physical ability or likelihood of performing to optimum skill capacity through time.
AGE SEASON 1 YEAR DEPRECIATION % AGGREGATE DEPRECIATION % % of ORIGINAL PERFORMANCE CAPACITY
23 1 0 0 100
24 2 1.2 1.2 98.8
25 3 1.5 2.7 97.3
26 4 1.9 4.6 96.4
27 5 2.4 7.0 93
28 6 3.0 10.0 90
29 7 3.8 13.8 86.2
30 8 4.7 18.5 81.5
31 9 5.9 24.4 76.6
32 10 7.4 31.8 68.2
33 11 9.2 41.0 59.0
34 12 10.2 51.2 48.8
35 13 12.8 64.0 36.0
36 14 16.0 80.0 20.0
Later, I will show how you can use the two tables together using a performance metric (individual player grade) in a given year to predict overall remaining value in a career with a specified number that you can compare with other players (rank by highest number).
I'm going to leave this first post off here, let you guys comment, and also work on another post in this thread to fill you in on some ways I'm using this to value RB's.
Have at it!
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