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Ranking The 2025 Playoff QBs (1 Viewer)

Gjallarhorn

Footballguy
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
 
3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.
How many of the 13 other QBs have beaten Mahomes in the playoffs?
 
Playoff QBs sorted by QBR; bolded are category league leaders

RkPlayerAgeTeamPosGGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DSucc%LngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBR
SkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAwards
1Lamar Jackson27BALQB171712-5-031647466.74172418.640.819851.3848.810.1513.2245.4119.677.5231494.638.099.3822Pro Bowl
2Josh Allen28BUFQB171713-4-030748363.63731285.861.217349.1647.78.3312.2219.5101.477.214632.827.387.9602Pro Bowl
4Jayden Daniels24WASQB171712-5-033148069.03568255.291.917047.1867.47.6310.8209.9100.170.6472388.926.326.5044Pro Bowl
5Jordan Love26GNBQB15159-6-026842563.13389255.9112.615148.3708.07.9912.6225.996.769.214953.197.507.5122
6Jared Goff30DETQB171715-2-039053972.44629376.9122.223654.7828.68.9611.9272.3111.868.5312345.447.718.0644Pro Bowl
8Patrick Mahomes29KANQB161615-1-039258167.53928264.5111.921450.7546.86.8010.0245.593.567.9362395.835.986.0257
10Jalen Hurts26PHIQB151512-3-024836168.72903185.051.413946.6678.08.4211.7193.5103.765.6382719.526.606.9334
11Justin Herbert26LACQB171711-6-033250465.93870234.630.617544.4667.78.3211.7227.6101.765.3412447.526.657.2512
12Matthew Stafford36LARQB161610-6-034051765.83762203.981.517650.1697.37.3511.1235.193.764.9282135.146.516.5935
14Baker Mayfield29TAMQB171710-7-040757071.44500417.2162.822453.9577.98.0711.1264.7106.861.8402486.566.977.1322
15Sam Darnold27MINQB171714-3-036154566.24319356.4122.220747.7977.98.2212.0254.1102.560.6483358.096.726.9935Pro Bowl
19Bo Nix24DENQB171710-7-037656766.33775295.1122.117043.7936.76.7310.0222.193.357.2241984.066.056.1233
25Russell Wilson36PITQB11116-5-021433663.72482164.851.511243.6467.47.6711.6225.695.651.3332198.946.136.3911
27C.J. Stroud23HOUQB171710-7-033653263.23727203.8122.318743.0677.06.7411.1219.287.050.2524088.905.685.4412
 
Most Playoff Wins - Active Quarterbacks

(playoff QBs + backup playoff QBs)

Mahomes, Wilson, and Goff are the only playoff QBs above .500 for their career.

NAMEWGPCMPATTPCTYDSAVGYDS/GTDINTRTGTD%INT%SCKSCKY
1Patrick Mahomes151845667267.95,1357.6285.3418105.86.11.235229
4Russell Wilson91627545161.03,7868.4236.6251295.35.52.749271
6Josh Allen51024437864.62,7237.2272.3214100.05.61.123190
7Jared Goff5*919030861.72,1376.9237.48288.42.60.621138
10Matthew Stafford4819729367.22,4638.4307.9156101.75.12.01591
12Marcus Mariota37426960.94636.766.14194.15.81.41062
14Jalen Hurts2510616564.21,0876.6217.45288.13.01.2938
15Baker Mayfield249214862.21,1537.8288.3103100.46.82.0968
16Lamar Jackson2611219557.41,3246.8220.76675.73.13.126159
18Jordan Love12375567.34668.5233.052108.69.13.600
19Sean Clifford110000.00000
20Davis Mills1111100.066.06.00091.70.00.000
21C.J. Stroud12355464.84498.3224.530109.35.60.000
22Daniel Jones12396262.94367.0218.02187.83.21.6838
24John Wolford113650.0294.829.00063.90.00.010
25Mitchell Trubisky13457262.55027.0167.32092.52.80.0320

If you are wondering why #24 is listed, by some folks accounting that win belongs to him because he started the game. He left after 15 plays and the score was 0-0.

*Jared Goff played 56 snaps and the Rams scored 100% of their points after he came with an injured thumb. Because of that, it's 50-50 if people give him credit for a 5th playoff win.

The site I pulled this from has Sean Clifford & Davis Mills listed as having one win. Neither started, both played a handful of snaps in the blowout wins. Not exactly the same, eh.

PSA: QB wins is not an official stat.
 
Pretty nice job on this list. Only nitpick is I think Darnold is too low (perhaps due to recency bias) and should be 10th ahead of Stroud, Nix, and Daniels.
 
When you look at Bobby's numbers side-by-side, I don't see how Lamar isn't MVP - with all due respect to Josh.

Yeah it's very much a narrative driven campaign - we'll look back on the stats from this year and wonder how Lamar didn't win another one in 2024.

KOC is the prohibitive favorite for Coach of the Year. Very well deserved, to squeeze 14 wins out of Sam Darnold deserves recognition.

But at a minimum, it's interesting he lost twice to his division rival, who has had 21 players on IR, & won 15 games in a regular season - something that has happened 9 times in 105 years.
 
Pretty nice job on this list. Only nitpick is I think Darnold is too low (perhaps due to recency bias) and should be 10th ahead of Stroud, Nix, and Daniels.

Just based on recent form (& health), could probably swap Love and Darnold.

Packers should be (+9) - no way they pull that off.
 
Playoff QBs sorted by QBR; bolded are category league leaders

RkPlayerAgeTeamPosGGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DSucc%LngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBR
SkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAwards
1Lamar Jackson27BALQB171712-5-031647466.74172418.640.819851.3848.810.1513.2245.4119.677.5231494.638.099.3822Pro Bowl
2Josh Allen28BUFQB171713-4-030748363.63731285.861.217349.1647.78.3312.2219.5101.477.214632.827.387.9602Pro Bowl
4Jayden Daniels24WASQB171712-5-033148069.03568255.291.917047.1867.47.6310.8209.9100.170.6472388.926.326.5044Pro Bowl
5Jordan Love26GNBQB15159-6-026842563.13389255.9112.615148.3708.07.9912.6225.996.769.214953.197.507.5122
6Jared Goff30DETQB171715-2-039053972.44629376.9122.223654.7828.68.9611.9272.3111.868.5312345.447.718.0644Pro Bowl
8Patrick Mahomes29KANQB161615-1-039258167.53928264.5111.921450.7546.86.8010.0245.593.567.9362395.835.986.0257
10Jalen Hurts26PHIQB151512-3-024836168.72903185.051.413946.6678.08.4211.7193.5103.765.6382719.526.606.9334
11Justin Herbert26LACQB171711-6-033250465.93870234.630.617544.4667.78.3211.7227.6101.765.3412447.526.657.2512
12Matthew Stafford36LARQB161610-6-034051765.83762203.981.517650.1697.37.3511.1235.193.764.9282135.146.516.5935
14Baker Mayfield29TAMQB171710-7-040757071.44500417.2162.822453.9577.98.0711.1264.7106.861.8402486.566.977.1322
15Sam Darnold27MINQB171714-3-036154566.24319356.4122.220747.7977.98.2212.0254.1102.560.6483358.096.726.9935Pro Bowl
19Bo Nix24DENQB171710-7-037656766.33775295.1122.117043.7936.76.7310.0222.193.357.2241984.066.056.1233
25Russell Wilson36PITQB11116-5-021433663.72482164.851.511243.6467.47.6711.6225.695.651.3332198.946.136.3911
27C.J. Stroud23HOUQB171710-7-033653263.23727203.8122.318743.0677.06.7411.1219.287.050.2524088.905.685.4412
I would have thought Goff would have been higher. Best comp %, most yards, most TDs, 2nd ypa.
 
What context are we looking at here? How good they were this year? How good they've been for a career? What their future outlook is? Who you'd rather have if you could pick right now for this year's playoffs?

List seems kind of uneven in this regard. If we're talking about this year, Darnold and Baker are way too low and guys like Stroud and Stafford too high, imo.
 
Records as a starter in the playoffs:

Mahomes 15-3
Wilson 9-7
Allen 5-5
Goff 4-4
Stafford 4-4
Mayfield 2-2
Stroud 1-1
Love 1-1
Darnold 0-0
Nix 0-0
Daniels 0-0
Hurts 2-3
Jackson 2-4
Herbert 0-1

IMO, regular season stats and records really don't matter much. We start anew. Last year, KC lost 5 games in the middle to end of the season, and people were quick to write them off. The Ravens and their MVP won 10 of 11 and were cruising. This year, the Lions set a record with 4 games scoring 40+ points with 0 turnovers . . . against all non-playoff teams. Scoring a lot of points doesn't usually lead to post season success.

DET, BUF, BAL, and TB all scored 500 points this year. The last time a team scored 500 points and won the SB was NOS in 2011. There were 13 teams since then (not counting this year) that scored 500 points that didn't win the title.
 
What context are we looking at here? How good they were this year? How good they've been for a career? What their future outlook is? Who you'd rather have if you could pick right now for this year's playoffs?

List seems kind of uneven in this regard. If we're talking about this year, Darnold and Baker are way too low and guys like Stroud and Stafford too high, imo.
Very fair question, I thought about that as I was compiling the list. The main goal was to spark conversation and hear what others' thought are.
 
Records as a starter in the playoffs:

Mahomes 15-3
Wilson 9-7
Allen 5-5
Goff 4-4
Stafford 4-4
Mayfield 2-2
Stroud 1-1
Love 1-1
Darnold 0-0
Nix 0-0
Daniels 0-0
Hurts 2-3
Jackson 2-4
Herbert 0-1

IMO, regular season stats and records really don't matter much. We start anew. Last year, KC lost 5 games in the middle to end of the season, and people were quick to write them off. The Ravens and their MVP won 10 of 11 and were cruising. This year, the Lions set a record with 4 games scoring 40+ points with 0 turnovers . . . against all non-playoff teams. Scoring a lot of points doesn't usually lead to post season success.

DET, BUF, BAL, and TB all scored 500 points this year. The last time a team scored 500 points and won the SB was NOS in 2011. There were 13 teams since then (not counting this year) that scored 500 points that didn't win the title.

From what I'm reading both here and elsewhere, it seems like people think the Chiefs are worse entering the playoffs this year than last year, despite a much better record. I'm really struggling with predicting the Chiefs as a result. The question is how much worse can the Chiefs be before Mahomes is not enough to carry them to playoff wins?
 
Records as a starter in the playoffs:

Mahomes 15-3
Wilson 9-7
Allen 5-5
Goff 4-4
Stafford 4-4
Mayfield 2-2
Stroud 1-1
Love 1-1
Darnold 0-0
Nix 0-0
Daniels 0-0
Hurts 2-3
Jackson 2-4
Herbert 0-1

IMO, regular season stats and records really don't matter much. We start anew. Last year, KC lost 5 games in the middle to end of the season, and people were quick to write them off. The Ravens and their MVP won 10 of 11 and were cruising. This year, the Lions set a record with 4 games scoring 40+ points with 0 turnovers . . . against all non-playoff teams. Scoring a lot of points doesn't usually lead to post season success.

DET, BUF, BAL, and TB all scored 500 points this year. The last time a team scored 500 points and won the SB was NOS in 2011. There were 13 teams since then (not counting this year) that scored 500 points that didn't win the title.

From what I'm reading both here and elsewhere, it seems like people think the Chiefs are worse entering the playoffs this year than last year, despite a much better record. I'm really struggling with predicting the Chiefs as a result. The question is how much worse can the Chiefs be before Mahomes is not enough to carry them to playoff wins?
Let's say the Chiefs lost a couple more games and ended up 13-4. Would that make any difference (other than not having a bye and HFA)? They've been to 6 straight AFCCGs, 4 SBs, and won 3 trophies. They have already shown they can up their play in the postseason. Is there another team out there that we can say that about? They're 14-2 in the post season the past 5 years. I'm not saying they are a lock to win again, but IMO, people are way underestimating them. I know a lot of people are saying they won't win again . . . but which team are people confident will beat them?
 
Pretty nice job on this list. Only nitpick is I think Darnold is too low (perhaps due to recency bias) and should be 10th ahead of Stroud, Nix, and Daniels.

Just based on recent form (& health), could probably swap Love and Darnold.

Packers should be (+9) - no way they pull that off.

:yes: at the risk of looking stupid in a week, I’d have Darnold right after Baker. But hurts is a top 5.
 
Herbert at #5 is interesting. It’s a run first team that relies on their defense. He’s a very talented QB but they don’t lean on him.

He did play well in the first half of his only playoff game (led 27-0, lost 30-31.) Finished 25-43, 1 TD, 3 sacks, 253 net yards.

Anyway, if we are discussing how we think QBs will do in this playoff tournament I’d think he should be ranked around 10th. He won’t be the reason they lose, equally likely IMO he won’t be why they win.
 
Solid.
I would move Daniels above Love. Of course Mahomes winning it all won’t surprise anyone. He seems to be peaking at the right time.
 
but which team are people confident will beat them?
Confident to beat them? Nobody really. However, I think Baltimore can/should beat them but there is mystique to overcome both positive (KC) and negative (Lamar). Buffalo can beat them but I don't think they will.

At this point KC really has zero room for error. That is really the crux of the situation. IF they don't make mistakes and the defense keeps it under 20 pts it puts the game in Mahomes hands at the end and so far he has gotten it done. Tough to bet against that at this point.
 
I'm not confident that anyone will beat KC.

I am confident that there are 4 teams that can beat them. Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, and Baltimore. But KC can only face one NFC team, and they can't face Baltimore or Buffalo before the AFCCG so they really only have two chances they can lose. And if they make it to the SB to face an NFC team seeded 3rd or lower, it's three-peat time.
 
I'm not confident that anyone will beat KC.

I am confident that there are 4 teams that can beat them. Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, and Baltimore. But KC can only face one NFC team, and they can't face Baltimore or Buffalo before the AFCCG so they really only have two chances they can lose. And if they make it to the SB to face an NFC team seeded 3rd or lower, it's three-peat time.
In games at KC, Lamar is 0-4, Wilson 0-3, and Stroud and Nix are both 0-1. Herbert is 1-3. Allen actually has a winning record at Arrowhead at 3-2 . . . but both losses came in the post season.
 
I'm not confident that anyone will beat KC.

I am confident that there are 4 teams that can beat them. Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, and Baltimore. But KC can only face one NFC team, and they can't face Baltimore or Buffalo before the AFCCG so they really only have two chances they can lose. And if they make it to the SB to face an NFC team seeded 3rd or lower, it's three-peat time.
In games at KC, Lamar is 0-4, Wilson 0-3, and Stroud and Nix are both 0-1. Herbert is 1-3. Allen actually has a winning record at Arrowhead at 3-2 . . . but both losses came in the post season.
Prediction: The chiefs will be down 2 points to the Ravens with 27 seconds to go & the ball at the 50.

Refs will ignore a blatant OPI as Kelce tackles a LB to make a 15 yard catch.

Butker will miss from 52, but a phantom roughing the kicker penalty will give him a 2nd chance. He’ll kick the GWFG as time expires, propelling the Chiefs to the SB.

It’s how the NFL wants it.
 
When you look at Bobby's numbers side-by-side, I don't see how Lamar isn't MVP - with all due respect to Josh.

Yeah it's very much a narrative driven campaign - we'll look back on the stats from this year and wonder how Lamar didn't win another one in 2024.

KOC is the prohibitive favorite for Coach of the Year. Very well deserved, to squeeze 14 wins out of Sam Darnold deserves recognition.

But at a minimum, it's interesting he lost twice to his division rival, who has had 21 players on IR, & won 15 games in a regular season - something that has happened 9 times in 105 years.
100% agree on Lamar. There is an argument he was just had the best regular season of any QB in NFL history this season. This year was easily better than either of his MVP years.

I like Dan Quinn for coach of the year. In one season, Washington went from joke of a franchise to 12 wins.
 
When you look at Bobby's numbers side-by-side, I don't see how Lamar isn't MVP - with all due respect to Josh.

Yeah it's very much a narrative driven campaign - we'll look back on the stats from this year and wonder how Lamar didn't win another one in 2024.

KOC is the prohibitive favorite for Coach of the Year. Very well deserved, to squeeze 14 wins out of Sam Darnold deserves recognition.

But at a minimum, it's interesting he lost twice to his division rival, who has had 21 players on IR, & won 15 games in a regular season - something that has happened 9 times in 105 years.
100% agree on Lamar. There is an argument he was just had the best regular season of any QB in NFL history this season. This year was easily better than either of his MVP years.

I like Dan Quinn for coach of the year. In one season, Washington went from joke of a franchise to 12 wins.

Interesting take.

Probably does feel miraculous to Commanders fans, been a minute, eh.

IDK, I look at Quinn and see a guy who has 14 coaching jobs. 12 in some capacity on the defensive side of the ball, 6 years with ATL when he was 1 game over .500, and now the current gig. Seems like a good coach but the credit of the turnaround is largely because they drafted a generational talent at QB and nailed the rest of the draft.



Adam Peters first NFL draft:
  1. Pro Bowl QB
  2. starting DI
    starting outside CB (whom everyone thought was just a slot CB)
    3rd string TE who is a beast of a blocker and has upside as receiver
  3. starting LT (with pick 87?!)
Signed a league high 26 FAs, found 3 rookie UDFA contributors.

It's a hand-and-glove kind of deal, you can have all the talent in the world but it doesn't matter if you don't have the right HC. But both these hires came in with a lot of fanfare and absolutely crushed it.

Quinn will get some votes but to me the lions share of the credit goes to the guy who spent 7 years working for John Lynch. Great candidate who delivered the goods.
 
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
Love the idea. I'm gonna be WAY higher on Jayden Daniels. I think he's already the best QB in the NFC and is having the best rookie season in over a decade. I think unlike a lot of the guys you have above him, Daniels can just take over a game. I don't think Washington is likely to make much noise (they are BY FAR the worst defense that made the playoffs) but he keeps them a threat to anyone.

My list:
14. Russell Wilson, no argument here. I honestly wonder if the Steelers are even competitive this week.

13. Sam Darnold, won me over slightly, but still distrust in big moments.

12. Baker Mayfield, maybe a bold call, but I feel like other than Darnold, he's the guy most likely to throw a backbreaking pick-6. Washington is best possible matchup though.

11. Matthew Stafford, I think he's a lot closer to Wilson than people think. I don't think he can gun sling his way to victory like he did 3 years ago.

10. Bo Nix, been a solid starter as a rookie. Wouldn't blow my mind in Denver upset Buffalo, as long as Nix doesn't make mistakes, which he's been mostly good about.

9. Jordan Love, worst possible matchup. He'll need to be a big play machine to win, and that hasn't been successful for him this season. Is 2023 Love still in there, or have injuries/confidence robbed that?

8. Jalen Hurts, not all that worried about the concussion, other than maybe fewer tush pushes. He's become a bit of a game manager with big play weapons. Needs to be unleashed for Eagles to hit their ceiling (which is best team in the NFL) but they also seem to not trust him. He's the biggest wildcard.

7. CJ Stroud has as much to lose/gain as anyone in the playoffs as far as how he's thought of. If he tears up the Chargers, a lot of his sophomore slump will be forgotten. If he struggles, he's starting to look like another Mayfield of maybe being crowned too soon.

6. Jared Goff, I think he gets more credit than he should from his supporters (MVP talk was always silly) and not enough from his detractors (he's not just a game manager) I hope for his (and the Lions sake) than Ben Johnson isn't distracted thinking about HC jobs, as we've seen that happen to OC/DCs a lot in the past.

5. Jayden Daniels, I don't think its crazy to have him this high at all. He's on the Lamar path, and he's already more accurate, and makes quicker reads. Just needs the experience, in clutch situations. I think Washington is still a year away from being a real threat (I think they are the worst roster in the playoffs minus the QB) but couldn't be much more impressed.

4. Justin Herbert, this is where I think the bar of truly elite guys starts. Herbert is amazing and doesn't get near enough credit because of low counting stats. He's made some high-level plays when they've needed them, he's not similar to Love to me, he's multiple cuts above. My only real nitpick with him, is he takes too many sacks, but that's a flaw of like half these QBs, including Daniels, Hurts, Mayfield, Darnold, Stroud, and has always been for Wilson. Better sacks than turnovers and nobody does a better job avoiding those than Herbert.

3. Patrick Mahomes, I know there is the idea of, "to be the man (woo) you have to beat the man" but if we're being honest, Mahomes has been more good than great this year. He's not making high-level throws and has had more reliance on his legs than ever. I'd be pretty surprised if KC wasn't in the final 4, but this version of Mahomes is clearly not as good as the 22-23 versions were. This is closer to the 2021 version to me, who while he had way better stats that year, also had some more uncertainty about him. That year it was about turnovers, this year, its about a lack of big plays. I'm not putting him in 1st off reputation, because we haven't seen that guy this year.

2. Lamar Jackson, one of the best regular season of all-time, and (not unrelated) he has Henry to relieve some pressure. The Ravens are the class of the AFC in my opinion, but Lamar's history of blowing big games is on the radar. He's the regular season MVP in my eyes, and yet, I think the Ravens would be wise to ride Henry as much as possible. Still, can take over games more than anyone.

1. Josh Allen, I don't really get the MVP stuff, I honestly don't see him as being any better than he's been from 20-23. That's not an insult, just feels like it's a "his turn" thing, which to me is awful logic. I do think Allen is the best player in the NFL however, and unlike Lamar, he's shown it in the playoffs, Buffalo's losses have never been on him. That said, I think this is actually the worst Bills team since Allen became a superstar. They need him now more than ever, and I think he won't be able to drag them kicking and screaming past round 2, and frankly Denver is no lock.
 
4. Justin Herbert, this is where I think the bar of truly elite guys starts. Herbert is amazing and doesn't get near enough credit because of low counting stats. He's made some high-level plays when they've needed them, he's not similar to Love to me, he's multiple cuts above. My only real nitpick with him, is he takes too many sacks, but that's a flaw of like half these QBs, including Daniels, Hurts, Mayfield, Darnold, Stroud, and has always been for Wilson. Better sacks than turnovers and nobody does a better job avoiding those than Herbert.

This one is surprising to me. Herbert's stats aren't just low from a raw counting standpoint. His efficiency metrics are fairly pedestrian in the modern NFL, and in 2022 and 2023 were actually fairly poor. I think it's a mischaracterization to imply that he's been a great QB hidden by low volume. His volume was low the last two years prior to this one largely because his efficiency was poor. And if we're focusing heavily on this year where his efficiency metrics were much better, it's worth noting that Baker (3rd to last on this list) beat him in the majority of those categories.
 
Gimme Baker at #5, fellas. Where we sit right now, there's no one I want chucking the ball around for me after the "big 4" from the OP.
I’m a Baker fan, but am not wild about a 2nd round game in Philly.

I think the qb that makes the big rise is Herbert. I can see them making a good run, even winning in KC. JH has played very well in the 2nd half of the season.
 
If the rankings are for fantasy, they make sense. Mahomes is the guy you want on a two minute drive at the end of a game, but he’ll also post a stat line of 230 yards 1-2 TDs.

Meanwhile, the Bills are leading 45-43 and Josh Allen has thrown for 300+ and 3-4 TDs.
 
Here's Pete Prisco's list from CBS . . .

01 - Mahomes
02 - Lamar
03 - Allen
04 - Goff
05 - Stafford
06 - Hurts
07 - Daniels
08 - Baker
09 - Love
10 - Herbert
11 - Donald
12 - Nix
13 - Stroud
14 - Wilson
 
4. Justin Herbert, this is where I think the bar of truly elite guys starts. Herbert is amazing and doesn't get near enough credit because of low counting stats. He's made some high-level plays when they've needed them, he's not similar to Love to me, he's multiple cuts above. My only real nitpick with him, is he takes too many sacks, but that's a flaw of like half these QBs, including Daniels, Hurts, Mayfield, Darnold, Stroud, and has always been for Wilson. Better sacks than turnovers and nobody does a better job avoiding those than Herbert.

This one is surprising to me. Herbert's stats aren't just low from a raw counting standpoint. His efficiency metrics are fairly pedestrian in the modern NFL, and in 2022 and 2023 were actually fairly poor. I think it's a mischaracterization to imply that he's been a great QB hidden by low volume. His volume was low the last two years prior to this one largely because his efficiency was poor. And if we're focusing heavily on this year where his efficiency metrics were much better, it's worth noting that Baker (3rd to last on this list) beat him in the majority of those categories.
He's in the top-8 in YPA and passer rating, as well as having the lowest INT% in the NFL. Those aren't the end all be all, as you noted Mayfield is higher in both stats, but Mahomes and Allen are lower.

I give Herbert a complete pass for 2023. That was a broken team, where he was very banged up, all of his weapons missed at least a month, and they had no running game at all. Under the circumstances, I thought he played well. 2022 his team was also beset by injuries, and some of his rate stats were low because the pass game was built around Austin Ekeler. He was solid enough that year. When Herbert had healthy, quality weapons in 2021, he was 2nd in pass yards and 3rd in TDs.

Even this year, his pass catchers have been credited with the 2nd highest % of drops of any playoff QB (behind only Love) that's a pretty big deal to me. Almost 8% of Herbert's passes have been drops. For comparisons sake, look at someone like Jared Goff, who has just over 1% of his passes dropped, which is BY FAR the lowest % in the league. Herbert is also 2nd among playoff QBs in a PFF stat I like a lot, called Big Time Throw %. Basically, the percentage of throws deemed high difficulty either 20+ yards downfield, and/or into a tight window. Only Josh Allen is ahead of him there. Both these stats in conjunction with one another, suggest that Herbert is not helped out by his supporting cast very much at all, and that was the case for most of 2023 as well.
 
I'm not confident that anyone will beat KC.

I am confident that there are 4 teams that can beat them. Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, and Baltimore. But KC can only face one NFC team, and they can't face Baltimore or Buffalo before the AFCCG so they really only have two chances they can lose. And if they make it to the SB to face an NFC team seeded 3rd or lower, it's three-peat time.
In games at KC, Lamar is 0-4, Wilson 0-3, and Stroud and Nix are both 0-1. Herbert is 1-3. Allen actually has a winning record at Arrowhead at 3-2 . . . but both losses came in the post season.
Lamar was one Isaiah Likely toenail away from 1-3 #ItCouldHappen.....Maybe
 
If the rankings are for fantasy, they make sense. Mahomes is the guy you want on a two minute drive at the end of a game, but he’ll also post a stat line of 230 yards 1-2 TDs.

Meanwhile, the Bills are leading 45-43 and Josh Allen has thrown for 300+ and 3-4 TDs.
Plus the 1st round bye will score a big fat 0 in the 1st round.

For postseason contests, that’s relevant.
 
4. Justin Herbert, this is where I think the bar of truly elite guys starts. Herbert is amazing and doesn't get near enough credit because of low counting stats. He's made some high-level plays when they've needed them, he's not similar to Love to me, he's multiple cuts above. My only real nitpick with him, is he takes too many sacks, but that's a flaw of like half these QBs, including Daniels, Hurts, Mayfield, Darnold, Stroud, and has always been for Wilson. Better sacks than turnovers and nobody does a better job avoiding those than Herbert.

This one is surprising to me. Herbert's stats aren't just low from a raw counting standpoint. His efficiency metrics are fairly pedestrian in the modern NFL, and in 2022 and 2023 were actually fairly poor. I think it's a mischaracterization to imply that he's been a great QB hidden by low volume. His volume was low the last two years prior to this one largely because his efficiency was poor. And if we're focusing heavily on this year where his efficiency metrics were much better, it's worth noting that Baker (3rd to last on this list) beat him in the majority of those categories.
He's in the top-8 in YPA and passer rating, as well as having the lowest INT% in the NFL. Those aren't the end all be all, as you noted Mayfield is higher in both stats, but Mahomes and Allen are lower.

I give Herbert a complete pass for 2023. That was a broken team, where he was very banged up, all of his weapons missed at least a month, and they had no running game at all. Under the circumstances, I thought he played well. 2022 his team was also beset by injuries, and some of his rate stats were low because the pass game was built around Austin Ekeler. He was solid enough that year. When Herbert had healthy, quality weapons in 2021, he was 2nd in pass yards and 3rd in TDs.

Even this year, his pass catchers have been credited with the 2nd highest % of drops of any playoff QB (behind only Love) that's a pretty big deal to me. Almost 8% of Herbert's passes have been drops. For comparisons sake, look at someone like Jared Goff, who has just over 1% of his passes dropped, which is BY FAR the lowest % in the league. Herbert is also 2nd among playoff QBs in a PFF stat I like a lot, called Big Time Throw %. Basically, the percentage of throws deemed high difficulty either 20+ yards downfield, and/or into a tight window. Only Josh Allen is ahead of him there. Both these stats in conjunction with one another, suggest that Herbert is not helped out by his supporting cast very much at all, and that was the case for most of 2023 as well.
That, and for the 1st 5 games before their BYE he was playing through plantar fasciitis, which seemed to hurt his numbers.

One they got past the BYE he started making more plays with his legs - not just the occasional rush, but his ability to scramble out of trouble, and his numbers from there forward improved.
 
Here's Pete Prisco's list from CBS . . .

01 - Mahomes
02 - Lamar
03 - Allen
04 - Goff
05 - Stafford
06 - Hurts
07 - Daniels
08 - Baker
09 - Love
10 - Herbert
11 - Donald
12 - Nix
13 - Stroud
14 - Wilson
Pete is out of his mind putting Stafford at 5th.

Or he hasn’t been watching the Rams the last few weeks.

Actually it’s been a pretty mediocre season. Just 2 games over 300 yards. 2x 4 TD games, but no other more than 2. And 6 games with 0 TD.

Also 20:8 TD:Int

Last 3 games in order of most recent:
Vs AZ - 17/32 for 189, 0 TD, 0 Int
@NYJ - 14/19 for 110, 1/1
@SF 16/27 for 160, 0 TD, 0/0

Not exactly coming into the post season hot. :oldunsure:
 
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
Love the idea. I'm gonna be WAY higher on Jayden Daniels. I think he's already the best QB in the NFC and is having the best rookie season in over a decade. I think unlike a lot of the guys you have above him, Daniels can just take over a game. I don't think Washington is likely to make much noise (they are BY FAR the worst defense that made the playoffs) but he keeps them a threat to anyone.

My list:
14. Russell Wilson, no argument here. I honestly wonder if the Steelers are even competitive this week.

13. Sam Darnold, won me over slightly, but still distrust in big moments.

12. Baker Mayfield, maybe a bold call, but I feel like other than Darnold, he's the guy most likely to throw a backbreaking pick-6. Washington is best possible matchup though.

11. Matthew Stafford, I think he's a lot closer to Wilson than people think. I don't think he can gun sling his way to victory like he did 3 years ago.

10. Bo Nix, been a solid starter as a rookie. Wouldn't blow my mind in Denver upset Buffalo, as long as Nix doesn't make mistakes, which he's been mostly good about.

9. Jordan Love, worst possible matchup. He'll need to be a big play machine to win, and that hasn't been successful for him this season. Is 2023 Love still in there, or have injuries/confidence robbed that?

8. Jalen Hurts, not all that worried about the concussion, other than maybe fewer tush pushes. He's become a bit of a game manager with big play weapons. Needs to be unleashed for Eagles to hit their ceiling (which is best team in the NFL) but they also seem to not trust him. He's the biggest wildcard.

7. CJ Stroud has as much to lose/gain as anyone in the playoffs as far as how he's thought of. If he tears up the Chargers, a lot of his sophomore slump will be forgotten. If he struggles, he's starting to look like another Mayfield of maybe being crowned too soon.

6. Jared Goff, I think he gets more credit than he should from his supporters (MVP talk was always silly) and not enough from his detractors (he's not just a game manager) I hope for his (and the Lions sake) than Ben Johnson isn't distracted thinking about HC jobs, as we've seen that happen to OC/DCs a lot in the past.

5. Jayden Daniels, I don't think its crazy to have him this high at all. He's on the Lamar path, and he's already more accurate, and makes quicker reads. Just needs the experience, in clutch situations. I think Washington is still a year away from being a real threat (I think they are the worst roster in the playoffs minus the QB) but couldn't be much more impressed.

4. Justin Herbert, this is where I think the bar of truly elite guys starts. Herbert is amazing and doesn't get near enough credit because of low counting stats. He's made some high-level plays when they've needed them, he's not similar to Love to me, he's multiple cuts above. My only real nitpick with him, is he takes too many sacks, but that's a flaw of like half these QBs, including Daniels, Hurts, Mayfield, Darnold, Stroud, and has always been for Wilson. Better sacks than turnovers and nobody does a better job avoiding those than Herbert.

3. Patrick Mahomes, I know there is the idea of, "to be the man (woo) you have to beat the man" but if we're being honest, Mahomes has been more good than great this year. He's not making high-level throws and has had more reliance on his legs than ever. I'd be pretty surprised if KC wasn't in the final 4, but this version of Mahomes is clearly not as good as the 22-23 versions were. This is closer to the 2021 version to me, who while he had way better stats that year, also had some more uncertainty about him. That year it was about turnovers, this year, its about a lack of big plays. I'm not putting him in 1st off reputation, because we haven't seen that guy this year.

2. Lamar Jackson, one of the best regular season of all-time, and (not unrelated) he has Henry to relieve some pressure. The Ravens are the class of the AFC in my opinion, but Lamar's history of blowing big games is on the radar. He's the regular season MVP in my eyes, and yet, I think the Ravens would be wise to ride Henry as much as possible. Still, can take over games more than anyone.

1. Josh Allen, I don't really get the MVP stuff, I honestly don't see him as being any better than he's been from 20-23. That's not an insult, just feels like it's a "his turn" thing, which to me is awful logic. I do think Allen is the best player in the NFL however, and unlike Lamar, he's shown it in the playoffs, Buffalo's losses have never been on him. That said, I think this is actually the worst Bills team since Allen became a superstar. They need him now more than ever, and I think he won't be able to drag them kicking and screaming past round 2, and frankly Denver is no lock.
Daniels to me is not going to be able due to build to stand up to the pounding a NFL QB takes. Particularly with his number of rushing attempts.
His second half performance did not match his first half performance this season.
 
His second half performance did not match his first half performance this season.
I suppose I should ask what that means. Do you mean first half of the season vs. second half of the season? Or first half of games vs. second half of games?

Through 9 games, he had 9 passing TD (17 over his last 8 games). He had 4 rushing TD in his first 9 games compared to 2 rushing TD over the last 8 games.

Fantasy scoring:
First 9 games: ranked 5th in total fantasy points and 6th in ppg.
Second 8 games: ranked 6 in total fantasy points and 5th in ppg.

He missed most of the game against CAR early in the season, but that gets negated by not playing much against DAL in Week 18.

Just trying to figure out where his performance was better / worse.
 
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
Really love this topic and this list. Thanks.

When I start at the bottom and read upwards, I get to #6 I start harrumphing and wondering "why are these guys ranked ahead of Jayden Daniels?"
I'd put Daniels at 6 or 7. He's really good.
 
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
Really love this topic and this list. Thanks.

When I start at the bottom and read upwards, I get to #6 I start harrumphing and wondering "why are these guys ranked ahead of Jayden Daniels?"
I'd put Daniels at 6 or 7. He's really good.
Fantasy pros has him at 3 for this week if that helps
 
Here is where I rank the playoff QBs. Most of this ranking is based off of regular season, with some emphasis put on historical playoff performances. Where do you rank the QBs?


14. Russell – Prime days are well behind him

13. Sam Darnold – Really good regular season, sans week 18, but prove it in the post season

12. Bo Nix – Torn between putting him or Daniels here. Looks really good, but let’s see what happens in the post season.

11. Jayden Daniels – See Bo Nix

10. C.J. Stroud – The curious case of Stroud. Looked like he was going to be a perennial world beater his rookie season only to have a sophomore slump. Love Stroud long term and think the WR injury situation really hampered his progress in 2024

9. Jordan Love – has turned into the ultimate game manager (handoff machine) since the bye. If they let the old gunslinger come out and play, he could move way up this list.

8. Jalen Hurts – Head injuries are not good. Missing multiple weeks is not good. He has a big boom or bust potential.

7. Baker Mayfield – reminds me of a week 1-7 Jordan Love. Interceptions be damned, this ball is getting chucked.

6. Matthew Stafford – Grizzled old veteran with proven playoff success and a tremendous receiving corp. LA could make a run purely on his right arm.

5. Justin Herbert – Kind of turned into a game manager, ala Love, but has the pedigree to compete in any type of game.

4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.

2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.

1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
Really love this topic and this list. Thanks.

When I start at the bottom and read upwards, I get to #6 I start harrumphing and wondering "why are these guys ranked ahead of Jayden Daniels?"
I'd put Daniels at 6 or 7. He's really good.
I think that he, even as a rookie and on the road, has a chance to be fantasy #1 this week, because:

  1. Neither the Washington or TB defense is good and this will be a high scoring game
  2. I think that D Henry is going to smoke Pitt and L Jax may not have to throw a lot
  3. Similarly, Buffalo could dominate the Broncos and coast a bit
 
For this playoffs (not taking into account the hou-lac game)

Mahomes - not betting against him in the playoffs now
Allen - slightly over Lamar because he has had some better playoff performances, but I would probably list him and Lamar as equal
Lamar-see above
Herbert- still believe in the talent and tools, functioning with a subpar offense in several ways
Goff- gotten to the point where he sees the field really well
Hurts- assuming full health, combination of running and passing is strong
Stafford- giving him the benefit of the doubt based on his past, though I would have him toward the bottom if we are talking future seasons
Baker- gotta give him his due for what he’s done this year
Love- could be higher but he’s been kind of uneven this year (though part of that was injury I’m sure)
Stroud- still has a lot of poise so have to keep him in the top 10
Daniels- great talent, better than stroud maybe, but still a rokie
Darnold- I think he’s figured some stuff out but can’t really have confidence in him in a playoff setting yet
Nix- shown some positives but still not an uber talent and he is a rookie
Wilson- old, doesn’t read field very well
 
Updated Rankings:

8. C.J. Stroud – Looked decent in the first round.
7. Jalen Hurts – Looked really, really bad. He single-handedly kept a far inferior opponent in the game.
6. Jayden Daniels – He is moving up this list. You never know what you are going to get with a rookie QB in the playoffs and he passed every test.
5. Matthew Stafford – Looked poised and decisive in a romp.
4. Jared Goff – He does have some playoff success (SB and Conf. Champ. appearances). Seems to never throw an incomplete pass. Leads the best offense in the NFL.
3. Patrick Mahomes – Very pedestrian regular season, stat-wise, but you cannot argue with his 15-1 regular season record, and the fact that he has won the last two SBs. He has a pretty poor receiving corps and an aging TE, but he seems to always get it done in the post season.
2. Josh Allen – Remarkable regular season and most likely the NFL MVP. He still scares me in the post season.
1. Lamar Jackson – One the greatest seasons ever by an NFL QB. Everyone knows is playoff track record, but he still the best NFL QB right now.
 

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