Assuming the video of him punching her and knocking her out exists:
I imagine Ray Rice's lawyers don't want a trial (or any other venue) where the video is shown.
I imagine the NFL doesn't want the video shown.
The video's going to come out long before any trial happens, IMO. Even if it didn't, the mere fact that it exists means Rice won't be going to trial. What would be the point? Going to get found not guilty when there's video evidence of you doing it?
Exactly. ZERO chance this goes to a trial. If there is video evidence of him hitting her, what exactly is he going to say in court? Even if she spit on him or hit him first, I'd find it hard to believe a jury wouldn't convict him since there is video of him knocking her out cold and then dragging her through the hotel.
There are multiple parts and each of them will play into the length of suspension and if Rice is cut.
1 - Not having seen the video from inside the elevator, we don't know what transpired to lead to Rice punching her. She was arrested as well. If she was punching him repeatedly, he would have nowhere to go in an elevator.
2 - We don't know what her BAC level was at this time. Could it have taken less physical contact to knock her out due to her drinking?
3 - This is the mother of his child and his fiance. I'm not sure about NJ law, but they may both drop the charges. After all, they are both losing $$ in this situation.
4 - While the NFL can suspend for 1st offenders of the Conduct Policy, Rice hasn't been in trouble with the league before. The three points above, would have a bearing on a suspension. Rice will look for the NFL to help him with a problem. Get him counseling and come out the other side a better person. It will all be for show, but it will keep Rice from getting a suspension.
I get the feeling that some are tacking on penalty because he knocked her out, or because a video exists. I think this will be another part of RIce's argument. He is a first time offender of domestic abuse. The NFL has years of history dealing with this.
I see a fine coming and maybe a 1 game suspension. This will be the actual punishment. Goodell may come out with a more severe punishment to satisfy the media. But Rice will appeal the suspension and get it reduced.