ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
With a suspension looming and workload issues what is ray rice worth? Figure ppr league. What would you take from another owner to trade rice? 1.07?
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Ray Rice = what rookie pick? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ctrlaltdefeat
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
2.03ish.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think this is a good starting place if you are offering for him. I think it will take a little more to get him. 1.08. Or 1.10 and a late 2nd or early 3rd
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Right now is probably the absolute worst time to sell Ray Rice. He's being discounted too heavily for both last year's performance and his recent appearance in the headlines. I'd cough up a mid 1st for him pretty easily if I had a good team with a hole at RB.
cstu
Footballguy
About right. I would still likely rather have the 1.10 but you're getting into that area where you're not going to get a guy who has an early impact.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A mid first is going to be a very good prospect in this draft. Potentially another starting RB. At the very least, it should be a WR drafted in the first round of the NFL draft or a top TE in a good situation.
I couldn't imagine paying that for Rice right now, personally. I'd much rather target MJD for much less.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
We agree on this year's class, but probably disagree on Rice. The fact that Pierce sucked even worse last year leads me to believe that Rice will probably be fine moving forward. Plus Kubiak. Plus I'm a big believer in winning now when I have a good team.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I wouldn't say Pierce was any worse, from what I saw. The YPC difference was very slim, and Pierce was at 4.9 last year.
I think Rice is a buy for 2015+, personally. I think his 2015 season is in danger. Obviously, that's very subjective and we don't have all the facts yet. But this is different than Brandon Marshall; this is on video, very public, and the woman was knocked out cold. There will be no "he said vs. she said" to preserve reasonable doubt.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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squistion
Footballguy
Agreed. In one league I got 1.06 and a weak RB corps. I could see paying that, although I would probably wait to after the draft and free agency to shake out before I would make that move.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
We'll see what happens, I suppose. My guess is counseling and maybe two games off at the most, considering it's a first offense.ETA: I'd love for the NFL to prove me wrong, but I doubt it happens. Spousal abuse is pretty abhorrent, and as a Steelers' fan I hate the Ravens.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
WAG: Commish says eight/six, knowing he'll hear the appeal and cut it to four.
Who'd ya rather?
Sankey
Mason
Hill
Hyde
Seastrunk
Carey
Crowell
Watkins
Evans
Lee
Beckum
Matthews
Cooks
Richardson
Moncreif
Ebron
Above I've listed 16 people that I think can make an early impact in the NFL and I'd rather have than Rice...
Sims
Freeman
Williams
I think I'd also rather have the above 3....
Really hard to take Rice over these guys. I realize that some of the above 19 may go to bad situations....???
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Perhaps I am giving The Shield too much credit. What about jail time, however? They don't need the wife's okay to prosecute.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
1st offense and million dollar lawyers make jail time very unlikely, IMO, although I'm no attorney. Hard to believe Rice is worse than guys like Kenny Britt, Marshall, Pacman, etc in the league's eyes. He'll get some counseling, throw a $100K to a battered women's shelter, give an interview about how sorry he is, and miss a game or two. Then go back to beating her up behind closed doors. Hate being this cynical, but the league has shown time and again that this stuff isn't a huge priority...
False Start
Footballguy
Really? You would rather have all those over a guy who is a starting RB and was a stud until last year when he had a bad season and a hurt hip? Moncrief and Crowell? Really, with a straight face you say that? People and the love of unproven youth really really makes me want to do this >
Rice will go through legal troubles but he is a talented kid who will start in this league, after his brief suspension. I love how players have down year and then they are thrown away.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think that's a rational expectation. Perhaps out of hope more than anything else, I think there's a chance that it's more than that, assuming the part of the video that we didn't see shows Rice KOing her. We'll see.
NFL: Medical marijuana (in Colorado or Washington, even) = KTFOing your wife
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az_prof
Footballguy
While four to two game suspension is a reasonable one based on previous cases, I think the video tape is the smoking gun in this case. It permits prosecution without the woman cooperating. And if he is convicted of a felony assault, then the league will have to suspend for more time. It's anyone's guess at this point, but I do think this case could turn out differently for that reason.
As for his relative value, I think somewhere between a 1.08-2.03 is about right. I traded him mid-season last year for Montee Ball (yeah) and Kenny Britt (shrug). There is no way that I would give Ball up for him at this point. If he does prison time and misses some or most of next season, in 2015 he will a year older yet. It is possible that he keeps playing and puts up Curtis Martin type numbers into his early 30s, but I don't think he is enough of a talent to hold off competition much beyond this year.
As for his relative value, I think somewhere between a 1.08-2.03 is about right. I traded him mid-season last year for Montee Ball (yeah) and Kenny Britt (shrug). There is no way that I would give Ball up for him at this point. If he does prison time and misses some or most of next season, in 2015 he will a year older yet. It is possible that he keeps playing and puts up Curtis Martin type numbers into his early 30s, but I don't think he is enough of a talent to hold off competition much beyond this year.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Is there video out there of Rice actually throwing a punch? I can't seem to find this "smoking gun" anywhere...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They've only released the part that we've all seen, but do have video of the punch, based on what I've read.
EBF
Footballguy
Was recently offered him for the 1.10 in a 12 team start 1 RB PPR league with 3 FLEX spots. I turned it down even though I also own Pierce.
His production sucked last year, he's getting old/worn down, and now he has the off-field stuff hanging over his head.
Maybe he bounces back and has a couple more good years. That's just too many red flags for me though. Rather have a blank slate top 10-12 rookie.
His production sucked last year, he's getting old/worn down, and now he has the off-field stuff hanging over his head.
Maybe he bounces back and has a couple more good years. That's just too many red flags for me though. Rather have a blank slate top 10-12 rookie.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
In our eyes it's far worse, but in the eyes of the law there's no difference between assaulting a man or woman.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Perhaps until human juries are involved, but the NFL should treat it differently than a bar fight or Steve Smith punching a teammate.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I traded Rice + pick 24 for pick 7 and 36 before the wife knockout occurred. (1/2 PPR for WR/TEs, but not RBs)
I'm not confident in Rice's situation improving... I think he will be RBBC from here on out, and the possibility that he will not return to form made up my mind to trade him if I could get a reasonable 1st.
I am more than happy with the WR4 or RB3 from this draft. Plus I still have the rights to B.Pierce.
I'm not confident in Rice's situation improving... I think he will be RBBC from here on out, and the possibility that he will not return to form made up my mind to trade him if I could get a reasonable 1st.
I am more than happy with the WR4 or RB3 from this draft. Plus I still have the rights to B.Pierce.
womb
Footballguy
Personally, I agree with this.EBF said:
I am not a Ray Rice owner. If the owner offered him to me for my first round pick, I would kindly decline.
For the second round pick, I would first want to see the field as this draft is deep.
As for third round, I would never expect anyone to dump him off for a 3rd round pick.
In short, he is out of trading field in exchange for rookie draft picks for my team.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
It only makes Rice a better value. I think we're too spooked by Hernandez. Reserving judgement and buying at top 100 value if I can. Nothing about the legal situation scares me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The offensive line regressed a great deal last season. You do not replace a great player like Matt Birk easily.
They performed pretty badly in both FBO and PFF offensive line rankings-
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/13/2013-offensive-line-rankings/
Texasmouth
Footballguy
I own Rice in a dynasty. I actually just traded for him....right before he started smacking people.
ZERO chance I trade him for a 2.03. No way.
I doubt he gets suspended. He has been a model citizen up to this point.
With Kubiak running that offense he will be back to his old self.
ZERO chance I trade him for a 2.03. No way.
I doubt he gets suspended. He has been a model citizen up to this point.
With Kubiak running that offense he will be back to his old self.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
I am not sold on this year's RB either.
He isn't easily replaced in my opinion.
He isn't easily replaced in my opinion.
EBF
Footballguy
910 carries in college and 1410 in the NFL with lots of catches mixed in. I'd be surprised if he had more than two seasons of peak performance left. The problem isn't just that he's closer to 30 than 20 or that he has a million miles. It's that he LOOKS like a guy who has lost something. Everyone commented on that last year.
Maybe it was just the injury and he'll come back fresh like the old Rice this year. Either way, his shelf life is pretty limited. That wouldn't be a huge issue if you could safely assume that he would be producing for you, but that's questionable now. So what you have is a guy with no longevity potential who also isn't obviously going to help you win in the short term. That's problematic.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Hes toast
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am a Ray Rice owner and I would need a top 8-10 pick to move him.
I don't believe he is toast. I think he has a big bounce back year being motivated by the horrid season last year, and the off the field issues. Kubiak is installing his zone-blocking scheme, and I think with a re-vamped offensive line, Rice will turn in 1200+ yards barring a suspension. I don't think he gets a suspension since he has had zero problems in the past, but perhaps he gets 2 games since there is the ugly footage.
I don't believe he is toast. I think he has a big bounce back year being motivated by the horrid season last year, and the off the field issues. Kubiak is installing his zone-blocking scheme, and I think with a re-vamped offensive line, Rice will turn in 1200+ yards barring a suspension. I don't think he gets a suspension since he has had zero problems in the past, but perhaps he gets 2 games since there is the ugly footage.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
The signs are all there for the slide to start. Downward spiral here we come
I think what you mention is very possible. I would not pay your price though...
If you have him keep him!
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Bought low on both D. Murray and R. Bush when everyone thought they were pretty worthless, and that's worked out well for me. Decided Rice was worth a shot as well. I think there's a decent chance lingering injury issues + terrible line play + the off the field incident have driven his price below what the rest of his career will provide.
10 team PPR start 2-5 RBs
Other owner wanted the 1.10 straight up. A few counters left us at his proposal of L. Murray + 1.10 + late 3rd (2015) for Rice + 2.09. I offered to make it a late 2nd in 2015 if he would switch the 2.09 to the 2.03, and we agreed on that.
I think that's a good price for 2ish years of RB2 value, which I think is a reasonable projection given that he was a mid RB3 even with a perfect storm of suck. If he flirts with RB1 value or plays a few more years on top of that, it's just icing on the cake.
This is all assuming the buying team is a contender with some sort of need at RB. I wouldn't invest in Rice as a rebuilding team, or play the stock market with his value.
10 team PPR start 2-5 RBs
Other owner wanted the 1.10 straight up. A few counters left us at his proposal of L. Murray + 1.10 + late 3rd (2015) for Rice + 2.09. I offered to make it a late 2nd in 2015 if he would switch the 2.09 to the 2.03, and we agreed on that.
I think that's a good price for 2ish years of RB2 value, which I think is a reasonable projection given that he was a mid RB3 even with a perfect storm of suck. If he flirts with RB1 value or plays a few more years on top of that, it's just icing on the cake.
This is all assuming the buying team is a contender with some sort of need at RB. I wouldn't invest in Rice as a rebuilding team, or play the stock market with his value.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
1) 27 is not young for a RB. I won't call it old yet, but I will call 28 year old next year. He has had a lot of work for his age.
2) He was terrible last year.
3) Much of #2 could have been due to the offensive line, but people act like that means it will automatically be much better this year. That's not necessarily true.
4) I think it's more likely than not that he misses some time.
5) Even if you think he's got some gas left, he's very obviously past his prime.
Personally, I think offering a top 10 draft pick for him is a little nuts right now. Maybe before he was caught on video beating his fiance unconscious, but even then, this is a deep class and trading 1st round picks for RB's on the downside is not a great move in dynasty leagues.
2.03 seems about right to me, and that's IF you have the right team need/situation.
2) He was terrible last year.
3) Much of #2 could have been due to the offensive line, but people act like that means it will automatically be much better this year. That's not necessarily true.
4) I think it's more likely than not that he misses some time.
5) Even if you think he's got some gas left, he's very obviously past his prime.
Personally, I think offering a top 10 draft pick for him is a little nuts right now. Maybe before he was caught on video beating his fiance unconscious, but even then, this is a deep class and trading 1st round picks for RB's on the downside is not a great move in dynasty leagues.
2.03 seems about right to me, and that's IF you have the right team need/situation.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ray Rice had a terrible year. Nobody disputes this.
However, even with this terrible year, in PPR leagues Rice was the #22 RB in scoring. In a 12 team league, this puts him as a weekly starter and a pretty good #3 RB for the good teams.
I think he can improve on last year, but let's say he doesnt. Let's say Ray Rice plays football for 2 more years and is the 22nd scoring RB for the next two years, then retires.
What is what worth? Probably a late 1st or eary 2nd? Then of course there is the obvious chance for him to do BETTER the next couple years and play even longer.
I gotta think if I need a RB I am willing to give a late 1st pretty easily.
However, even with this terrible year, in PPR leagues Rice was the #22 RB in scoring. In a 12 team league, this puts him as a weekly starter and a pretty good #3 RB for the good teams.
I think he can improve on last year, but let's say he doesnt. Let's say Ray Rice plays football for 2 more years and is the 22nd scoring RB for the next two years, then retires.
What is what worth? Probably a late 1st or eary 2nd? Then of course there is the obvious chance for him to do BETTER the next couple years and play even longer.
I gotta think if I need a RB I am willing to give a late 1st pretty easily.
