Ray Rice will be the #1 fantasy RB of 2011 (1 Viewer)

[Thomsen]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark. He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

I'd like to take a shot at your first statement there, concerning strength of schedule. About 2 months ago I posted a very lengthy writeup I did about strength of schedule based on the non-division games a team has. Last year the AFC North (which Rice is in) played the AFC East and the NFC South. Historically (I went back 2-3 years) those are two of the tougher divisions when considering rushing defenses. Rice had nearly 1,800 yards. This year he'll play the AFC South and the NFC West. Seriously, do I have to go on after posting that?! He gets to play Arizona, Seattle, Indy, Houston, Jacksonville.... Those two divisions historically (past 2-3 years) are the weakest ones when considering rushing defense. Indy has NEVER been a run stopper - Arizona has NEVER had a top 10 defense....If you want more proof, just look at all the breakout players that came from the AFC West last year, which is the division that had the "privilege" of playing the AFC South and the NFC West (the same two Rice plays this year) - Lloyd, Orton, Charles, Bowe, Cassell, McFadden, Zach Miller while hurt!, Rivers, Gates (ok, the last two aren't really "breakouts", but both put up EXCEPTIONAL years given their circumstances). I rest my case.

Well allow me to retort From 2008 to 2009 only 5 teams who had a top 10 rush defense repeated that performance. From 2009 to 2010, six teams repeated their top 10 rush defense performance. It is pretty much the same in regards to pass defense. Yes, there will be teams who year after year will be good or bad, but in general it is very difficult to predict.

 

[matttyl]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark. He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

I'd like to take a shot at your first statement there, concerning strength of schedule. About 2 months ago I posted a very lengthy writeup I did about strength of schedule based on the non-division games a team has. Last year the AFC North (which Rice is in) played the AFC East and the NFC South. Historically (I went back 2-3 years) those are two of the tougher divisions when considering rushing defenses. Rice had nearly 1,800 yards. This year he'll play the AFC South and the NFC West. Seriously, do I have to go on after posting that?! He gets to play Arizona, Seattle, Indy, Houston, Jacksonville.... Those two divisions historically (past 2-3 years) are the weakest ones when considering rushing defense. Indy has NEVER been a run stopper - Arizona has NEVER had a top 10 defense....If you want more proof, just look at all the breakout players that came from the AFC West last year, which is the division that had the "privilege" of playing the AFC South and the NFC West (the same two Rice plays this year) - Lloyd, Orton, Charles, Bowe, Cassell, McFadden, Zach Miller while hurt!, Rivers, Gates (ok, the last two aren't really "breakouts", but both put up EXCEPTIONAL years given their circumstances). I rest my case.

Well allow me to retort From 2008 to 2009 only 5 teams who had a top 10 rush defense repeated that performance. From 2009 to 2010, six teams repeated their top 10 rush defense performance. It is pretty much the same in regards to pass defense. Yes, there will be teams who year after year will be good or bad, but in general it is very difficult to predict.

And I'll retort your retort.The post I did was about each division, not each team. Have you ever thought of the AFC South as a good division defensively? What about the NFC West? When you think of tough divisions to play, you think of the NFC North and the AFC East. Here's the thread, I think it's a good read....http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=591314&st=0&p=13134152&fromsearch=1entry13134152Two things I'll cut and paste...For reference, here is the breakdown of each division's defensive strength for yards allowed in 2010, and it's average -AFC East - Buf, Miami, NE, NYJ - #3, #6, #24, #25 (average 14.5)AFC North - Balt, Cin, Cle, Pitts - #2, #10, #15, #22 (average 12.3)AFC South - Hou, Indy, Jax, Ten - #30, #28, #26, #20 (average 26)AFC West - Oak, Den, KC, SD - #1, #32, #11, #14 (average 14.5)NFC East - Wash, NYG, Philly, Dal - #7, #12, #23, #31 (average 18.3)NFC North - Minn, Det, GB, Chi - #5, #8, #9, #21 (average 10.8) Detroit vastly improved DLNFC South - TB, Atl, Car, NO - #4, #16, #17, #18 (average 11.3)NFC West - STL, Ari, SF, Sea - #19, #27, #29, #13 (average 22)Ok, follow me here, if you look above at the 2010 average defense in a division, and rank them from best to worst, you'd have...#1 - NFC North with #10.8 average defense#2 - NFC South with #11.3 average defense#3 - AFC North with #12.3 average defense#4/#5 - AFC East and AFC West with #14.5 average defense#6 - NFC East with #18.3 average defense#7 - NFC West with #22 average defense#8 - AFC South with #26 average defenseIf you go back and look at the 2009 numbers for the divisions (in their 2010 order, but with 2009 ranking), you get -#4 NFC North (#2, #6, #17, #32) average #14.2#6 NFC South (#8, #21, #25, #27) average #20.2#2 AFC North (#3, #4, #5, #31) average #10.7#3 AFC East (#1, #11, #19, #22) average #13.2#5 AFC West (#7, #16, #26, #30) average #19.7#1 NFC East (#9, #10, #12, #13) average #8.5#8 NFC West (#15, #20, #24, #29) average #22#7 AFC South (#13, #18, #23, #28) average #20.5So, the two weakest division in 2009 were again the two weakest divisions in 2010, they just switched places. In fact, the AFC West had the EXACT SAME AVERAGE defense!The NFC North's average defense dropped only by an average of 3.4 spots, very small amount.The AFC North's average defense went up by an average of 1.6 spots, again very small.The AFC East's average defense dropped by an average of 1.3 spots, even smaller!By in large, DIVISION rankings don't move all that much. Sure a few did, but no worst to first or the other way around. 3 of the top 4 remained, 3 of the bottom 4 remained. Aside from the NFC East and South kinda switching places, each DIVISION was very close to where it was the year before.

 

[Thomsen]

I stand corrected, it seems some measure of predictablity is possible. Read the thread, nice job!

 

[Ilov80s]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark.

He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

I'd like to take a shot at your first statement there, concerning strength of schedule. About 2 months ago I posted a very lengthy writeup I did about strength of schedule based on the non-division games a team has. Last year the AFC North (which Rice is in) played the AFC East and the NFC South. Historically (I went back 2-3 years) those are two of the tougher divisions when considering rushing defenses. Rice had nearly 1,800 yards. This year he'll play the AFC South and the NFC West. Seriously, do I have to go on after posting that?! He gets to play Arizona, Seattle, Indy, Houston, Jacksonville.... Those two divisions historically (past 2-3 years) are the weakest ones when considering rushing defense. Indy has NEVER been a run stopper - Arizona has NEVER had a top 10 defense....

If you want more proof, just look at all the breakout players that came from the AFC West last year, which is the division that had the "privilege" of playing the AFC South and the NFC West (the same two Rice plays this year) - Lloyd, Orton, Charles, Bowe, Cassell, McFadden, Zach Miller while hurt!, Rivers, Gates (ok, the last two aren't really "breakouts", but both put up EXCEPTIONAL years given their circumstances).

I rest my case.

Well allow me to retort From 2008 to 2009 only 5 teams who had a top 10 rush defense repeated that performance. From 2009 to 2010, six teams repeated their top 10 rush defense performance. It is pretty much the same in regards to pass defense. Yes, there will be teams who year after year will be good or bad, but in general it is very difficult to predict.

And I'll retort your retort.The post I did was about each division, not each team. Have you ever thought of the AFC South as a good division defensively? What about the NFC West? When you think of tough divisions to play, you think of the NFC North and the AFC East.

Here's the thread, I think it's a good read....

http://forums.footba...

Two things I'll cut and paste...

For reference, here is the breakdown of each division's defensive strength for yards allowed in 2010, and it's average -

AFC East - Buf, Miami, NE, NYJ - #3, #6, #24, #25 (average 14.5)

AFC North - Balt, Cin, Cle, Pitts - #2, #10, #15, #22 (average 12.3)

AFC South - Hou, Indy, Jax, Ten - #30, #28, #26, #20 (average 26)

AFC West - Oak, Den, KC, SD - #1, #32, #11, #14 (average 14.5)

NFC East - Wash, NYG, Philly, Dal - #7, #12, #23, #31 (average 18.3)

NFC North - Minn, Det, GB, Chi - #5, #8, #9, #21 (average 10.8) Detroit vastly improved DL

NFC South - TB, Atl, Car, NO - #4, #16, #17, #18 (average 11.3)

NFC West - STL, Ari, SF, Sea - #19, #27, #29, #13 (average 22)

Ok, follow me here, if you look above at the 2010 average defense in a division, and rank them from best to worst, you'd have...

#1 - NFC North with #10.8 average defense

#2 - NFC South with #11.3 average defense

#3 - AFC North with #12.3 average defense

#4/#5 - AFC East and AFC West with #14.5 average defense

#6 - NFC East with #18.3 average defense

#7 - NFC West with #22 average defense

#8 - AFC South with #26 average defense

If you go back and look at the 2009 numbers for the divisions (in their 2010 order, but with 2009 ranking), you get -

#4 NFC North (#2, #6, #17, #32) average #14.2

#6 NFC South (#8, #21, #25, #27) average #20.2

#2 AFC North (#3, #4, #5, #31) average #10.7

#3 AFC East (#1, #11, #19, #22) average #13.2

#5 AFC West (#7, #16, #26, #30) average #19.7

#1 NFC East (#9, #10, #12, #13) average #8.5

#8 NFC West (#15, #20, #24, #29) average #22

#7 AFC South (#13, #18, #23, #28) average #20.5

So, the two weakest division in 2009 were again the two weakest divisions in 2010, they just switched places. In fact, the AFC West had the EXACT SAME AVERAGE defense!

The NFC North's average defense dropped only by an average of 3.4 spots, very small amount.

The AFC North's average defense went up by an average of 1.6 spots, again very small.

The AFC East's average defense dropped by an average of 1.3 spots, even smaller!

By in large, DIVISION rankings don't move all that much. Sure a few did, but no worst to first or the other way around. 3 of the top 4 remained, 3 of the bottom 4 remained. Aside from the NFC East and South kinda switching places, each DIVISION was very close to where it was the year before.

You are just looking at 2 years, not enough to draw any conclusions. Do you have any more long term data?

 

[matttyl]

I looked back at the third year, but didn't "publish" it. The reason is there was just too much change from the 2008 season to the 2010 season when looking ahead to the 2011 season. Roughly 2/3rds of each team's defense had turned over, new coaches and defensive coordinators came in, blah blah.

I think my point was proven pretty well when you looked at the "breakout" players from the AFC West last year (who got to play the AFC South and NFC West). That's why I'm loving rolling into the year with Mendenhall and Rice, both in the AFC North. I also made a trade for Bernard Scott with the same idea, though I think he's more off a 2-3 year project if ever.

 

[-jb-]

I think my point was proven pretty well when you looked at the "breakout" players from the AFC West last year (who got to play the AFC South and NFC West). That's why I'm loving rolling into the year with Mendenhall and Rice, both in the AFC North. I also made a trade for Bernard Scott with the same idea, though I think he's more off a 2-3 year project if ever.

Very helpful tidbit, thx.

 

[dwashington]

The way the offensive line looks right now, we may want to temper our expectations for Rice.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bs-sp-preston-column-0812-20110811,0,3544623.column?track=rss

 

[Gottabesweet]

thanks for jinxing yet another one of my players.

 

[Tango]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.With the number 1 pick, I really don't expect to get lucky enough to end up with the #1 player in fantasy football at year end; way too many variables involved that affect that. My goal is to simply pick a guy that is as close a lock as possible to finish top 5. There may be several candidates this year and no true consensus #1, but Rice could be that guy. We'll see how the preseason plays out, and see if Cameron is true to his word. If so, I'm liking Rice.

Im a Rice and Foster owner for the last 3 and 2 years respectively (yup, I used a roster spot on Foster when he was a rookie).I like Rice better this year even in non-PPR leagues, esp. if I had the #1 pick in a draft. The primary reason is that he will get at least 3/4 of the GL carries and because the back-up RB situation in Baltimore is more clear in an injury scenario. Houston's back-up situation is a mess. Perhaps it will clear itself up in the preseason, but right now Tate is hurting, Slaton is Slaton and Ward is getting all the reps by default.

 

[LHUCKS]

The way the offensive line looks right now, we may want to temper our expectations for Rice.http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bs-sp-preston-column-0812-20110811,0,3544623.column?track=rss

looked pretty good last night

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

merge, plz

 

[shortbow]

I missed the entirety of the Chiefs vs Ravens game. Ive only seen the box score so I have no idea if KC played poorly or if the Ravens D and Oline played well.

I did see Rices 28 yard run, I expect to see more of that.

 

[timschochet]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

 

[Pnishthm]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it. So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

I'm not sure how you come up with a RB3? Rice last year was the 10th ranked RB in all 3 of my non ppr leagues while not getting goalline carries. If everything stays the same as last year and doesn't get better that still doesn't even come close to making him a RB3. Please explain..

 

[Hoss Style]

As a new guy I have no preconceived prejudices here on any one poster.

I just read this thread in it's entirety, and even though along the way I saw many veteran posters trying to wave me off I kept on. I felt like I was driving down a road and for the last few miles there were people along the side yelling "No! Don't go!" and "Stop! While you can!" but I kept hitting the gas - determined to find the answer I was looking for.

Well, six pages later and I still haven't found the answer so I'll pose the question directly:

What math are you using?

Being a fan of math and stats you piqued my interest earlier when you said this:

I don't think Rice will score enough TDs to be the #1 RB. Going back to 1995, only 2 RBs have scored less than 17 TDs and finished as the top RB...Chris Johnson had 16 TDs and Barry Sanders had 14...and both of them had 2000 rushing yards in those seasons. I don't see any way Rice scores anywhere near enough TDs to be the #1 RB.

A fair argument. With McGahee out of the picture how many TDs do you see Rice scoring?I have his range at 9-18 Total TDs.

Pretty wide range there. What do you think the median is of Rice's TDs? I bet that range will be heavily skewed to the left.......I would estimate it this way.<9 TDs - 20%

9-11 TDs - 55%

12-14 TDs - 20%

15+ TDs - 5%

The median of this distribution is about 10 TDs, which IMO is an appropriate projection for Rice. Taking the halfway point of your range of 13-14 TDs is way too optimistic, even with McGahee likely leaving.

Now we're having intelligent discussion. Good post.Using your method(which is similar to mine) I have roughly the following:

<9 TDs - 20%

9-11 TDs - 25%

12-14 TDs - 30%

15+ TDs - 25%

and then later on this:

This is a function of how I quantify risks and use that number to project ranges.

Most of my top RBs have similar ranges for what it's worth, so the range is not unique to Ray Rice. As you go down the rankings the ranges obviously become smaller(on average).

I probably shouldn't have posted the range because it confuses/misleads people...I project differently than almost everyone.

Now, being a fan of mathematics and FF both I was really interested as to your method to "quantify risks" and "project ranges". The user "fightingillini" had made a good point and I was looking to your response but it didn't make any sense to me. I was about to post asking for more reasoning from you but decided to finish reading the entire thread first as oftentimes answers are forthcoming. I was glad I did. fightingillini posted a great answer and question to you when he responded here:

I am a little confused with this statement.

You're saying that the top RBs have similar ranges (which is wide) but the ranges get smaller as you go down the rankings. I would think the reverse is true. You're taking Foster, or Rice or ADP in the top 5 because you know that they will get their carries, their receptions, their TDs.....and they're talented to have nice yards per carry averages.

Let's extend your analysis a little further for Ray Rice.....you project his TD range at 9-18. What is Rice's range for number of carries? YPC? Receptions? Here I think Rice's numbers are going to be pretty narrow. I can't see Rice carrying the ball more than 310 times, but I can't see him getting less than 275. I am very confident that Rice will catch 55-70 passes. So based on these ranges, Rice is very likely to generate 1650-1950 all purpose yards. That's pretty tight range if you ask me....say that you think Rice's baseline yardage will be 1800....a 1650-1950 accounts to his baseline + or - about 8%....that's tight.....only Rice's TD totals could be volatile, but TDs are generally a volatile stat for most players. In other words, Rice is going to produce for you, which is why he's a top 5 pick.

As you go down the list, I would expect the ranges could be very wide (not always). Let's take an example.....Ryan Mathews. Opinions on Mathews are quite varied in the Spotlight. What is his range of carries? Could be as high as 290, could be as low as 190. Receptions? Could be 45, could be 20. TDs? Could be 12, could be 5. It all depends on how SD uses Mathews and Tolbert, and if Sproles leaves SD, and we don't know how it's going to shake out in SD. So Mathews could be a top 10 RB or he could be a complete bust. His yardage production could range from 1000 to 1600. Say your yardage baseline for Mathews is 1300. His production has a distribution of baseline + or - 23%. And the variance gets even higher when factoring in a difference between 12 and 5 TDs.

So I don't quite follow your post. I can see plenty of situations where variances in RB production could be very high due to the fact that we don't know how some of these RBBC situations are going to pan out.

Everything he wrote made perfect sense mathematically. I was very intersted in your formula that you used that would have higher variances for the more reliable picks at RB and less variance the farther you go down the draft board.

I'm not saying you're wrong but you never responded. This still makes absolutely no sense to me. Giving you the benifit of the doubt - enlighten me. Am I missing something? It almost seemed as if you were making up your process to grade Rice out at #1 as you went along.

Apologies if I'm wrong about this. Posting your formula that you grade your RBs out will stand me as corrected. Maybe you're a genius and have figured out some new way to use percentages when applied to FF. Maybe I'll look dumb here - but I have to ask. Curiosity has gotten the best of me.

If it still doesn't make sense after you respond (or you just ignore my post as you did fightingillini's earlier) then I'll just chalk this up as a "new guy" lesson learned - Take heed of the vets when they warn you.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

Rice finished 4 points behind Adrian Peterson in PPR leagues last year.

 

[shortbow]

Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like Foster?

Hahaha, thats a good one.

 

[timschochet]

Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like Foster?

Hahaha, thats a good one.

Yeah, I get Foster was in his first significant year last year. And to respond to a few other posters, I'm aware that last year Rice finished the year very high, in the top 10 (higher in PPR). But Rice was inconsistent from week to week- he had very good weeks, and some bad weeks. The bad weeks killed me. Foster was for the most part consistent. The argument here is not whether Rice is a top 5 back- he is and deserves to be. The question is whether he'll be #1. I think Foster, ADP, Johnson are all safer selections.

 

[shnikies]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

LOL, Larry, LOL.

 

[timschochet]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

LOL, Larry, LOL.

I don't care whee he finished last year. Most fantasy football leagues don't award for cumulative points. You need to win on a weekly basis. Rice did not perform consistently last year like a stud RB.

 

[shnikies]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

LOL, Larry, LOL.

I don't care whee he finished last year. Most fantasy football leagues don't award for cumulative points. You need to win on a weekly basis. Rice did not perform consistently last year like a stud RB.

You said no better than a RB3 in non-ppr, so let's say he's the best RB3 making him the 25th best back. You're saying his "consistency" makes his 11th best total last year no better than the 25th best option? There are 24 backs who are more "consistent"?

 

[k3tchup57]

i have the 4th pick in my non-ppr draft and im guessing it comes down to rice, charles, or cj2k.

im passing on cj2k until his contract is negotiated

but i keep looking at the "expert" rankings and most all have charles ranked above rice, i see mclain and tjones in the backfield but i see the stars aligning for Rice, playing well in preseason, getting Vonta Leach etc. Right now im leaning toward Rice but is Charles athletic ability really enough to take him over the "safer" pick in ray rice even with 2 goalline backs and a tougher schedule (yes i know schedules change)

figured this is a thread to help convince me / help me out on why Charles is getting so much attention that Rice isnt

 

[shortbow]

i have the 4th pick in my non-ppr draft and im guessing it comes down to rice, charles, or cj2k. im passing on cj2k until his contract is negotiatedbut i keep looking at the "expert" rankings and most all have charles ranked above rice, i see mclain and tjones in the backfield but i see the stars aligning for Rice, playing well in preseason, getting Vonta Leach etc. Right now im leaning toward Rice but is Charles athletic ability really enough to take him over the "safer" pick in ray rice even with 2 goalline backs and a tougher schedule (yes i know schedules change)figured this is a thread to help convince me / help me out on why Charles is getting so much attention that Rice isnt

People always see explosiveness and dismiss consistency.

 

[caglassc]

Which essentially means that you aren't very confident of your baseline projection. That's a wide variance, essentially assuming a uniform distribution (about equal probability for each TD scenario). 45% of the time you think Rice will score 8 or less TDs OR 15 or more TDs.

This is a function of how I quantify risks and use that number to project ranges. Most of my top RBs have similar ranges for what it's worth, so the range is not unique to Ray Rice. As you go down the rankings the ranges obviously become smaller(on average).I probably shouldn't have posted the range because it confuses/misleads people...I project differently than almost everyone.

You project Rice differently or all of your projections differently - i.e. your method?

 

[LHUCKS]

Which essentially means that you aren't very confident of your baseline projection. That's a wide variance, essentially assuming a uniform distribution (about equal probability for each TD scenario). 45% of the time you think Rice will score 8 or less TDs OR 15 or more TDs.

This is a function of how I quantify risks and use that number to project ranges. Most of my top RBs have similar ranges for what it's worth, so the range is not unique to Ray Rice. As you go down the rankings the ranges obviously become smaller(on average).I probably shouldn't have posted the range because it confuses/misleads people...I project differently than almost everyone.

You project Rice differently or all of your projections differently - i.e. your method?

all, not just rice

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

I'm all in. I would take him #1.

 

[rocketsauce]

I personally agree that he could finish the year as the #1 overall back, but I'll be taking Arian Foster #1 overall when I pick on Saturday.

Rice plays the Jets & Steelers in the first month, and then has a bye week. He is going to be a perfect buy low if you have an owner that got off to an unfortunate 1-3 or 0-4 start thanks to Rice's quiet games in week 1 and 4. I'll personally be making a hard push at him, because after that bye week, things get mighty tasty, including my Fantasy playoffs (13-16) where he gets the Browns TWICE.

 

[LHUCKS]

I personally agree that he could finish the year as the #1 overall back, but I'll be taking Arian Foster #1 overall when I pick on Saturday.

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

 

[Raider Nation]

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

Nicely played! Make sure to announce that you have Peterson ranked #1 next week to cover all the bases.

 

[joey]

I personally agree that he could finish the year as the #1 overall back, but I'll be taking Arian Foster #1 overall when I pick on Saturday.

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

man, I gotta get my eyes checked. I must be misreading the title of this thread...

 

[Widbil83]

I personally agree that he could finish the year as the #1 overall back, but I'll be taking Arian Foster #1 overall when I pick on Saturday.

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

Ok, I'll bite, why do you have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now?

 

[Cookiemonster]

It has to be because of how dominant the Texans O line looks, and the offense in general. I'm not a huge believer in Foster as an elite back, but he's good enough to be a starter and not easily replaced, and as long as he has the title of Houston RB1 and is healthy, I don't see how he can't produce. Starting to look like a poor man's Emmit Smith situation.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I used the thread title to arrange my pecking order!

LHUCKS, at least go back and edit the thread title to Ray Rice will be the #2, #3, #4...etc. fantasy RB of 2011.

 

[Pnishthm]

RIce's current ADP is based on one idea only: that he will be used at the GL this year. Why do we believe this? Because he's being used in GL packages in the pre-season, and McGahee is gone. So this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The problem is that in last years pre-season, Rice was used in GL packages. And then when the regular season started, Harbaugh went to a different guy whenever they got into the red zone. We simply have no way of knowing if he's going to do the same thing again. And if he does, Rice becomes no better than an RB3, perhaps an RB2 if you're in a PPR league. I know because I had him last year and I suffered through it.

So I'm not saying the OP is wrong. But it's a gamble that the coach is going to go away from something that he's done in the past. Are you willing to take that risk over known quantities like ADP or Foster? I'm not. Perhaps if Rice is there at 4 or 5 and I have the pick, I'll take the chance. But not at 1 or 2.

LOL, Larry, LOL.

I don't care whee he finished last year. Most fantasy football leagues don't award for cumulative points. You need to win on a weekly basis. Rice did not perform consistently last year like a stud RB.

You said no better than a RB3 in non-ppr, so let's say he's the best RB3 making him the 25th best back. You're saying his "consistency" makes his 11th best total last year no better than the 25th best option? There are 24 backs who are more "consistent"?

He avoided the same question when i asked and he will likely avoid this one too

 

[wazoo11]

PPR, nobody plays TD only...at least not those of us who matter

Listen, new guy. I do things my way for a very particular reason. There are other threads if you don't like this one.

Nobody knows who you are.I was posting around here before you knew what fantasy football was.

You are a clown.It is AMAZING to me how you continue disrespecting Joe and David's board despite the fact they should have banned you five minutes after you began posting. It's clear your only mission here is to antagonize everyone, and try out your shtick on the few remaining people who don't yet realize you're a little weasel who contributes nothing to this fine community. Do everyone a favor and go away.

 

[caglassc]

Arian Foster may give him a run for his money but my money is on Mr. Rice.

I guess the run was pretty short.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

I can get with that. Especially in PPR. not unheard of in standard scoring either IMO.

 

[Raider Nation]

I was hoping for at least 30 yards rushing out of him last night.

 

[barista]

buy low.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

buy low.

or sell high??

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Ray-ray is up 11 (McCoy in 2nd) in my PPR heading into week 17.

 

[Raider Nation]

Ray-ray is up 11 (McCoy in 2nd) in my PPR heading into week 17.

Irrelevant. He hedged his bet so the Rice call means nothing.

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

 

[glumpy]

Intreresting difference--in my non PPR league it's McCoy ahead of Rice by about 20 with Foster in a real close third.

 

[Tom Servo]

Ray-ray is up 11 (McCoy in 2nd) in my PPR heading into week 17.

Irrelevant. He hedged his bet so the Rice call means nothing.

I have Foster ranked ahead of Rice now.

And he's not even here to take his abuse.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Intreresting difference--in my non PPR league it's McCoy ahead of Rice by about 20 with Foster in a real close third.

That's interesting. We go with 1 PPR & 1 point every 10 yards rushing and receiving with 6 point TD's.

 

[BradtheAg]

he has been absolute money this year. all three of my championship teams have rice on them.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

he has been absolute money this year. all three of my championship teams have rice on them.

Yep me too and he did finish as the #1 RB in my league!

 

[Raider Nation]

he has been absolute money this year. all three of my championship teams have rice on them.

Yep me too and he did finish as the #1 RB in my league!

HUCKS... HI!

 

[LHUCKS]

he has been absolute money this year. all three of my championship teams have rice on them.

Yep me too and he did finish as the #1 RB in my league!

HUCKS... HI!

Nailed it.And it was a minority call too...nobody had Rice at #1 last year.

 

[Raider Nation]

So this is BUMP your posts night? Got it.

BRB.