Ray Rice (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

so i was browsing the dynasty rankings of undercover brother and noticed Rice fairly high across the board. Some had him in the second tier while others had him in the first.

however as a ray rice dynasty owner, i'm a bit nervous. i see Rice as a *good* running back in an amazing situation. not only does he have cameron as OC, who is known to build the offense around his RB.... he does a great job of giving the QB an easy outlet to the RB in space and the combined yardage just piles up... but also the ravens have a nasty o-line, a stiff defense, and a lack of talent at WR. what more could you possibly want? all these things make it a dream scenario for Rice.

now, i was a big believer in Rice before the season last year. the writing was on the wall; he was primed for a big season. and he should have an opportunity to improve his TD numbers in 2010. what worries me is that after another successful season, Cameron will be offered head coach jobs again. if he leaves, IMO Rice is nothing more than your average RB2. of course, this is basically a moot point because cam IS going to the be the OC next year. but beyond that, who knows?

i'm sure this post will be misinterpreted. i'm not saying Rice isn't a good back.... just that i'm sensing the time to sell high on him is coming soon.

now i want you to imagine the 2009 baltimore ravens with any one of the following running backs, having only to share the ball with McGahee, and in his second year in the cameron system so he's fully up to speed and not learning on the fly.

[*]CJ

[*]ADP

[*]MJD

[*]DWill

[*]JStew

[*]Charles

[*]PThomas

[*]Felix

[*]SJax

[*]Gore

there could be others, that's just off the top of my head, but i'm sure you get my point. in my opinion, any one of them (if healthy of course) would have produced numbers as good as Rice or better (maybe a lot better). for example, there is a crazy amount of Jstewart love around here... he's got the talent to be the top RB in the league, only Dwill in the way, etc etc. Does anyone doubt that Stewart would put up bigger numbers if he played in Baltimore instead of Rice? but in many/most dynasty rankings, Rice is a few spots higher than Stewart (for example, F&L's ranking: Rice RB4, Stewart RB7).

so my question to the shark pool.... what do you think Rice's numbers would look like next year without Cam as the OC? do you agree that most of these RBs would produce numbers at least as good if not better if they were to be feature by Cam? do you think it's possible that Rice's situation is SO great that it influences our opinion of his natural talent?

btw i want to add that as weird as it sounds, right now is one of my favorite times in fantasy football. only the die-hard addicts still read the shark pool daily. it's a time to step back, think about things with the luxury of time that we just don't have in-season. so with that in mind, please indulge my little thought experiment here: what is Ray Rice's value independent of Cameron?

 

[az_prof]

Cam can't tote the ball. I was very impressed by Rice: his inside running, outside running, burst, agility and moves, catching the ball, ability to take it to the house. The BA OL is ok but not as dominant as it used to be; Rice caused a lot of missed and broken tackles. I am very comfortable with him in the second or bottom of first tier. He's young too and seems to have a great attitude.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Rice will be ok without Cam. He is a solid rb. I however did move him this offseason as i can see him not producing as much as last yr with flacco progressing and now with high volume catch wrs like boldin and mason onboard.

 

[Psychopav]

I think the real test will be whether Rice can stay healthy over the long haul.

If he can, you can cut the list of guys who would do as well or better in the same situation in half for that alone.

My opinion: I think JStew is a phenomenal talent, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy so far even with DWill running in front of him. His ceiling is huge but I'll take a consistent, good starter over a sporadic great one every time.

 

[travdogg]

I don't disagree with the premise that the other RBs listed would fare just as well, but I don't follow why having Cameron is a bad thing. There is no indication he's going anywhere, and no reason why Rice can't remain a top-5 RB for years to come.

ETA: I do like that you listed Pierre Thomas on the list of RBs who could fare as well, I don't think I've ever seen a more underrated RB in my 20+ years of watching football.

 

[cr8f]

Rice will be ok without Cam. He is a solid rb. I however did move him this offseason as i can see him not producing as much as last yr with flacco progressing and now with high volume catch wrs like boldin and mason onboard.

Yes but I like him in PPR with Cam calling the plays. Interesting that draft Rice and Chris Johnson are the studs so far.

 

[Tanner9919]

With Boldin on the roster, Flacco now has a legit Wr corps to work with, meaning more Db's and safeties will be playing back off the LOS...no more 8 man fronts...they're going to open up that offense and allow Flacco to throw a lot more, in doing so,that will open up therunning lanes for Rice,and will help himbecome the best RB in the NFL in 2010..

the problems with J. Stewart are injuries and a guy named D. Williams..

there is no indication that Cam is going anywhere,anytime soon, and as such, given Cam's track record with RBs, Rice

is in for a big, big year!

 

[thehornet]

he rushed for almost 1400 yards on 5.3 ypc with 7 td's as a second year player. The PPR stats are just gravy on top. Even if you take away 25 receptions and 200 receiving yards and 1 receiving td, you still have a top 5 RB.

also, Rice has arguably the best balance of any running back in the league and it can't be taught.

 

[karmarooster]

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? the o-line improved? or maybe it was the Cameron effect?

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches, and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5.

 

[golfguy]

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.his balance and vision got better? the o-line improved? or maybe it was the Cameron effect?now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC. IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches, and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5.

um u do know that cameron was their his rookie season as well, right?rice is simply MJD with better speed, quickness, and hands.though mjd is more of a banger.

 

[thehornet]

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2 - he only had 100 rushing attempts his rookie year....hardly a good indicator of future performance.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? Potentially, yes his vision got better. he is only 23 trs old and still learning. the o-line improved? the o line performed well both years, but Rice got more opportunites in 09 - or maybe it was the Cameron effect? Cameron gives his running backs great options to succeed in the passing game, so yeah, this helps rice.

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches why? he has arguably the best hands in football and the RB's with the best hands usually get about 50 receptions. So yeah, Cam helps ballon the number, but he'd be getting roughly 50 in any other offense too. , and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per i don't really know how to debate this opinion of yours other than that he had a mind boggling 9 YPC spanning his college career at rutgers. College is different of course, but to me it looks like his 100 carries his rookie year is the exception not the rule, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5. you must be predicting an injury.

above.

 

[TS Garp]

Cam Cameron is the main reason I targeted Rice this year. I agree Rice loses value if he goes, but we can't predict him leaving after one more year. I'd go ahead and wait for him to leave before dealing Rice. If you put Rice in a situation where he's only catching 25 passes per season then his value drops immensely because he's not getting 300+ carries.As for those other backs doing just as well as him, I disagree. I don't necessarily think he'd have done as well as they did in their situations, but Rice is shifty with great balance and vision. The guy really made the most of those dump off passes from Flacco. I am not sure anyone other than CJ would have done as well. Rice also seems to have very good hands. I'd be willing to bet the majority of guys on that list would have dropped quite a few of those receptions that Rice tallied, effectively ending a few drives and removing themselves from further production.Rice IS in an optimal situation. Few other backs would thrive like he has in this spot. But don't get caught up overthinking things. Cam Cameron might be gone in a year, but there's a very good chance he won't be. Wait until it happens. It won't hurt his trade value as much as you seem to think. There will be plenty of people who only believe in numbers. Example: look at the hordes of suckers who drafted Portis top 5 when he got traded from Denver to Washington. I thought everyone and their mom would see the writing on the wall. Losing an OC is a lot less drastic than moving from the storied Broncos backfield and 5.5 ypc to the crappy Skins.

Great post but you lost me at the Portis analogy. Not to get this thread off track, but he had some excellent seasons in Washington...

 

[karmarooster]

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? the o-line improved? or maybe it was the Cameron effect?

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches, and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5.

um u do know that cameron was their his rookie season as well, right?rice is simply MJD with better speed, quickness, and hands.

though mjd is more of a banger.

yes i know Cam was the OC his first year too, it just took a year for him to full integrate into the system. however i disagree with your comparison to MJD.... MJD is faster, quicker, and has equally good hands.

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2 - he only had 100 rushing attempts his rookie year....hardly a good indicator of future performance.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? Potentially, yes his vision got better. he is only 23 trs old and still learning. the o-line improved? the o line performed well both years, but Rice got more opportunites in 09 - or maybe it was the Cameron effect? Cameron gives his running backs great options to succeed in the passing game, so yeah, this helps rice.

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches why? he has arguably the best hands in football and the RB's with the best hands usually get about 50 receptions. So yeah, Cam helps ballon the number, but he'd be getting roughly 50 in any other offense too. , and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per i don't really know how to debate this opinion of yours other than that he had a mind boggling 9 YPC spanning his college career at rutgers. College is different of course, but to me it looks like his 100 carries his rookie year is the exception not the rule, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5. you must be predicting an injury.

above.

nice response, just to add i thought he wouldn't average more than 5 yards per carry... not reception, sorry about the confusion. regarding the number of receptions, just because a RB is adept at catching dumpoffs doesn't mean he's a LOCK to catch 50 passes.

RE: this whole hands things.... just because you catch 78 passes doesn't mean you have GREAT hands. yes i agree that Rice is better than the average RB at catching, i haven't done extensive research, but Rice doesn't strike me as some kind of Westbrook when it comes to catching the ball. he's good at it... but.... most RBs catch simple dump-offs, and i'm not an expert about the Cameron system, but i believe he didn't ask Rice to run complicated routes, split out wide or on the slot... just the normal RB screen, in the flat, over the middle stuff, repeatedly.

 

[thehornet]

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? the o-line improved? or maybe it was the Cameron effect?

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches, and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5.

um u do know that cameron was their his rookie season as well, right?rice is simply MJD with better speed, quickness, and hands.

though mjd is more of a banger.

yes i know Cam was the OC his first year too, it just took a year for him to full integrate into the system. however i disagree with your comparison to MJD.... MJD is faster, quicker, and has equally good hands.

so how do we explain the change in YPC for Rice from year 1 to year 2 - he only had 100 rushing attempts his rookie year....hardly a good indicator of future performance.... he jumped from a nice 4.2 to an awesome 5.3 yards per tote.

his balance and vision got better? Potentially, yes his vision got better. he is only 23 trs old and still learning. the o-line improved? the o line performed well both years, but Rice got more opportunites in 09 - or maybe it was the Cameron effect? Cameron gives his running backs great options to succeed in the passing game, so yeah, this helps rice.

now, you can always expect players to improve from their rookie year. but i'd have to say it's due to Rice improving his game, AND the influence of the OC.

IMO without Cam he wouldn't get the catches why? he has arguably the best hands in football and the RB's with the best hands usually get about 50 receptions. So yeah, Cam helps ballon the number, but he'd be getting roughly 50 in any other offense too. , and he wouldn't average over 5 yards per i don't really know how to debate this opinion of yours other than that he had a mind boggling 9 YPC spanning his college career at rutgers. College is different of course, but to me it looks like his 100 carries his rookie year is the exception not the rule, even with his skills (which i agree are above average). here's my prediction: he'd be a 4.5 ypc, 40 catch, 200 carry back. not bad by any means, but not top 5. you must be predicting an injury.

above.

nice response, just to add i thought he wouldn't average more than 5 yards per carry... not reception, sorry about the confusion. regarding the number of receptions, just because a RB is adept at catching dumpoffs doesn't mean he's a LOCK to catch 50 passes.

RE: this whole hands things.... just because you catch 78 passes doesn't mean you have GREAT hands. yes i agree that Rice is better than the average RB at catching, i haven't done extensive research, but Rice doesn't strike me as some kind of Westbrook when it comes to catching the ball. he's good at it... but.... most RBs catch simple dump-offs, and i'm not an expert about the Cameron system, but i believe he didn't ask Rice to run complicated routes, split out wide or on the slot... just the normal RB screen, in the flat, over the middle stuff, repeatedly.

You are correct. No RB is a lock to catch footballs, but over the course of a 16 game season the the RB's with better hands typically catch 40-50 balls. As for Rice's hands. It isn't a myth. Rice has very soft hands and is agile. Go check out some game highlights from 2008. He made some ridiculous plays this year with his hands. A running back doesn;t catch 80 balls in a season if he is merely "good at it." He is excellent at it.

 

[karmarooster]

Pro-rated to 16 games, here are Ronnie Brown's totals for receptions. Guess which year he was featured by Cameron:

2005: 34

2006: 41

2007: 89

2008: 33

2009: 34

Is he an excellent hands-catcher? obviously he's good at it. but simply because he was on-pace to catch 89 passes in 2007 doesn't make him one of the best at it. it was a by-product of this system.

further, if he is good-to-excellent at catching the ball, why was he not on pace to catch 40-50+ balls every year?

the system.

 

[Sweet Love]

Honestly, I look at this post and say "So what?". You mention his value is tied to Cameron, but you also mention that he has a killer line, a QB that likes to go to him, good hands, etc. The latter part is the part that will not change (or at least take a while to change). Guy was lights out last year and I saw your list of RBs that could have done as well or better than him in the same situation and I still say "so what?". Take SJax for example. Guy would have been a beast (even more so) on the Ravens, but he is not on the Ravens. He plays for a turd team where eveyone on the D gangs up on him (not that the Ravens had a ton more options last year BTW). I have no problem saying that today, ALL THINGS EQUAL, S-Jax would outperform Ray Rice in FF 9 out of 10 times, but again all things are not equal and you draft accordingly.

I think Corey Dillon, had he played for a better team than the late 90s/early 2000s Bengals, would have been the top rusher of his era (hands, not so much), but he played for that team and it limited him. S-Jax may go down in the same way, as a guy who we just never will know what could have been (although we get those glimpses all the time) had he played for a better team. Guys like Shonne Greene are more attractive because they play for the Jets (and their line) and not a poor team. Please don't take my post the wrong way as I see what you are saying, but you could also say the same thing for a guy like Randy Moss that his value is tied to Tom Brady...of course it is, but it shouldn't stop you from valueing him at where he is.

 

[thehornet]

Pro-rated to 16 games, here are Ronnie Brown's totals for receptions. Guess which year he was featured by Cameron:2005: 342006: 412007: 892008: 332009: 34Is he an excellent hands-catcher? obviously he's good at it. but simply because he was on-pace to catch 89 passes in 2007 doesn't make him one of the best at it. it was a by-product of this system.further, if he is good-to-excellent at catching the ball, why was he not on pace to catch 40-50+ balls every year? the system.

ronnie brown is known for having excellent hands too.

 

[karmarooster]

Honestly, I look at this post and say "So what?". You mention his value is tied to Cameron, but you also mention that he has a killer line, a QB that likes to go to him, good hands, etc. The latter part is the part that will not change (or at least take a while to change). Guy was lights out last year and I saw your list of RBs that could have done as well or better than him in the same situation and I still say "so what?". Take SJax for example. Guy would have been a beast (even more so) on the Ravens, but he is not on the Ravens. He plays for a turd team where eveyone on the D gangs up on him (not that the Ravens had a ton more options last year BTW). I have no problem saying that today, ALL THINGS EQUAL, S-Jax would outperform Ray Rice in FF 9 out of 10 times, but again all things are not equal and you draft accordingly. I think Corey Dillon, had he played for a better team than the late 90s/early 2000s Bengals, would have been the top rusher of his era (hands, not so much), but he played for that team and it limited him. S-Jax may go down in the same way, as a guy who we just never will know what could have been (although we get those glimpses all the time) had he played for a better team. Guys like Shonne Greene are more attractive because they play for the Jets (and their line) and not a poor team. Please don't take my post the wrong way as I see what you are saying, but you could also say the same thing for a guy like Randy Moss that his value is tied to Tom Brady...of course it is, but it shouldn't stop you from valueing him at where he is.

this really gets to the point! to answer your questions, "so what?" Buy Low, Sell High. Rice's value is extremely high right now. maybe the highest it will ever be. is it time to sell? or is Rice really supremely talented AND in a great situation?look back a year and think about Matt Forte. He was pretty much a consensus top 3 pick in redraft last summer, and very highly rated in dynasty as well. in the dynasty league where i hold Rice, who i drafted in the 5th round, Forte was taken #3 over all. he had a great situation in 2008, when they didn't have many quality WRs or a QB who wanted to chuck it. whereas now we think of Forte as 'nothing special,' last year he was considered 'good all-around.' basically different sides of the same coin. now Rice does appear to have more innate talent than Forte, but you get my point. now in the short time, Rice's situation appears stable. The ravens added Boldin, who will surely take his share of targets/receptions... not to mentioned Mason and Stallworth in picture. I would suspect that this will cause at least a slight decrease in Rice's receptions. at the same time, boldin will keep the safeties back from the LOS, so who knows if Boldin will have a net positive or net negative effect on Rice. Beyond 2011, who knows about Cameron? I keep brining up Jon Stewart, because he seems like the perfect foil for Rice. In 2010, Stewart's upside is almost sure to be limited by situation, but his talent is undeniable. He's a stud, we just don't know when he will have the numbers. Rice on the other hand, is a basically a lock for top 5ish numbers for 2010, but will he continue to be a stud if Cameron moves on?

 

[karmarooster]

Pro-rated to 16 games, here are Ronnie Brown's totals for receptions. Guess which year he was featured by Cameron:2005: 342006: 412007: 892008: 332009: 34Is he an excellent hands-catcher? obviously he's good at it. but simply because he was on-pace to catch 89 passes in 2007 doesn't make him one of the best at it. it was a by-product of this system.further, if he is good-to-excellent at catching the ball, why was he not on pace to catch 40-50+ balls every year? the system.

ronnie brown is known for having excellent hands too.

exactly. so why doesn't he catch more? having excellent hands doesn't mean a RB is sure to get into that range that really matters in PPR. If Cam moves on, Rice very well could have numbers like Ronnie.... in the 30s which is basically the doldrums in PPR.

 

[golfguy]

Pro-rated to 16 games, here are Ronnie Brown's totals for receptions. Guess which year he was featured by Cameron:2005: 342006: 412007: 892008: 332009: 34Is he an excellent hands-catcher? obviously he's good at it. but simply because he was on-pace to catch 89 passes in 2007 doesn't make him one of the best at it. it was a by-product of this system.further, if he is good-to-excellent at catching the ball, why was he not on pace to catch 40-50+ balls every year? the system.

ronnie brown is known for having excellent hands too.

exactly. so why doesn't he catch more? having excellent hands doesn't mean a RB is sure to get into that range that really matters in PPR. If Cam moves on, Rice very well could have numbers like Ronnie.... in the 30s which is basically the doldrums in PPR.

couple of things, pro-rating numbers doesn't equate to "locked in stone would have happened".the last 2 seasons who were the QBs in MIA?how many times is ronnie out of the game on 3rd downs? ronnie has been hurt and the wildcat formation takes a lot of chances for him to catch the ball away as well.

 

[golfguy]

MJD is faster, quicker, and has equally good hands

.has equally good hands? are you serious? i like MJD but his hands aren't as good as rice.and i would have to look at explosive plays last season for a real comparison. if you have it, let me know. i'd be curious who had more plays over so 25 yards?

 

[thehornet]

Pro-rated to 16 games, here are Ronnie Brown's totals for receptions. Guess which year he was featured by Cameron:2005: 342006: 412007: 892008: 332009: 34Is he an excellent hands-catcher? obviously he's good at it. but simply because he was on-pace to catch 89 passes in 2007 doesn't make him one of the best at it. it was a by-product of this system.further, if he is good-to-excellent at catching the ball, why was he not on pace to catch 40-50+ balls every year? the system.

ronnie brown is known for having excellent hands too.

exactly. so why doesn't he catch more? having excellent hands doesn't mean a RB is sure to get into that range that really matters in PPR. If Cam moves on, Rice very well could have numbers like Ronnie.... in the 30s which is basically the doldrums in PPR.

DUDE! I already stated that Cameron helps receiving running backs!!! What more do you want? I also said that if you take away 25-200 and a touchdown then he would stil lbe top 5. sheeesh. he isnt going to go from 80 recptions to 30 with most coaches in the league. he would drop down to the norm for good handed RB's, which as stated earleier is 4-50. not to mention, ronnie never plays a full season and last year they ran the wildacat which prohibits using ronnie in a receiving role.