RB 6-15 (1 Viewer)

[jbird]

It seems the general consensus is that the top 5 are (in no specific order):

LJ

LT

Alexander

Barber

Portis

Where I'm struggling is the 6-15 RB's (PPR). They all seem pretty interchangable. Plenty of upside, plenty of questions. Curious to hear what you think.

Edgerrin James - Has proven he has the ability but OL concerns. I liked Robert Smith but don't remember if he was a top 10 RB with Green as HC, however, I love Green's pass happy offense and James' receiving skills.

Lamont Jordan - 3 of my 4 leagues are PPR so I like Jordan. How have RB's fared with Shell as HC? Do we expect much of the same as last year, average RB but superior receiving RB?

Brian Westbrook - I love this guy, more than Jordan. When he's healthy he is on average a top 5 RB week in and week out. Can he stay healthy? Does Reid really run the ball more this year? If so, will Westbrook get those carries to keep his touches per game on normal pace?

Steven Jackson - I think the time has come for Jackson to show his true colors. He certainly has the talent but I'm not sure I'm convinced that he is a top 10 RB. If memory serves, Linehan was OC with Green for many years. Again with my Robert Smith question and love for the offense.

Ronnie Brown - With Ricky out of the way it should be all Ronnie all the time. Can he handle the load?

Rudi Johnson - I recently read somewhere that Rudi played injured from week 3 on. Amazing he did what he did being hampered. Chris Perry does not seem to be a threat. Does Palmer's injury affect his effectiveness?

Cadillac Williams - Showed what he can do the first 3 weeks of the year. Can he stay healthy and carry the load this year?

Chester Taylor - I trully thought he should have been the starter last year in Baltimore. He has the skill to run, receive and block. Childress has stated he sees Taylor getting 20+ touches a game. Great OL to run behind. Honestly can't see any negatives with his situation. Very similar to Jordan's situation last year.

Reuben Droughns - If he can stay out of trouble I can see him slightly increasing on last year's numbers. Frye is maturing and Winslow should be back in the fold. Not liking the competition behind him.

Willis McGahee - Seems he has come into training camp with something to prove after declaring himself the best RB in the NFL. That's going to be hard to prove running behind his OL. No competition.

Willie Parker - Coming in knowing he's the starter this year on a running team. Will he get more goalline carries?

Kevin Jones - Intriguing since he's playing in the Martz offense and has been working on his receiving skills during the offseason.

Domanick Davis - Offense has produced top 10 RB #s per game in the last 3 years. Offense meaning not just Davis. While I love the RB position on this team, especially with Kubiak coming in, I can't share the love with the brittle Davis who is still experiencing knee problems that may be an ongoing issue.

I threw Parker, Jones and Davis in for the sake of discussion. In a 14 team, PPR league you may want to consider taking your top WR in the first round followed by the top RB left on your board since they seem to all be interchangable.

 

[JimmyD]

PPR Leagues

James

Brown

Jordan

Dom Davis - Yes he's brittle but his numbers when healthy are too hard to ignore.

After that it comes down to who you buy into. I like Jackson and Caddy a lot.

After those guys I agree that the others seem closely packed together. It now comes down to your scoring/lineup/roster. In ppr leagues I usually go RB/WR or WR/WR getting two guys that should have 80-100 rec is huge.

Going TO and Steve Smith is a deadly combination.

 

[Blackjacks]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

 

[Burning Sensation]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I would be willling to bet he averages less than 4 ypc.

 

[JimmyD]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I'd agree that if anyone drafts him thinking that he'll duplicate #s from Indy is an idiot.I just think that with Fitz/Boldin/Byrant/Pope that one of two things will happen, the defense will roll up to stop the run and these guys will go off or they will be on their heels more trying to stop the pass and James will have 6yds before the DB's react.

Drafting a RB with the # of touches he'll have, being in on most packages and a chip on his shoulder isn't that much of a risk for me.

Of course there is that huge risk of which wins out? James pro-bowl production or Arizona's recent history of running the ball?

 

[MLBrandow]

It seems the general consensus is that the top 5 are (in no specific order):

LJ

LT

Alexander

Barber

Portis

Where I'm struggling is the 6-15 RB's (PPR).  They all seem pretty interchangable.  Plenty of upside, plenty of questions.  Curious to hear what you think.

Edgerrin James - Has proven he has the ability but OL concerns.  I liked Robert Smith but don't remember if he was a top 10 RB with Green as HC, however, I love Green's pass happy offense and James' receiving skills.

Lamont Jordan - 3 of my 4 leagues are PPR so I like Jordan.  How have RB's fared with Shell as HC?  Do we expect much of the same as last year, average RB but superior receiving RB?

Brian Westbrook - I love this guy, more than Jordan.  When he's healthy he is on average a top 5 RB week in and week out.  Can he stay healthy?  Does Reid really run the ball more this year?  If so, will Westbrook get those carries to keep his touches per game on normal pace?

Steven Jackson - I think the time has come for Jackson to show his true colors.  He certainly has the talent but I'm not sure I'm convinced that he is a top 10 RB.  If memory serves, Linehan was OC with Green for many years.  Again with my Robert Smith question and love for the offense.

Ronnie Brown - With Ricky out of the way it should be all Ronnie all the time.  Can he handle the load?

Rudi Johnson - I recently read somewhere that Rudi played injured from week 3 on.  Amazing he did what he did being hampered.  Chris Perry does not seem to be a threat.  Does Palmer's injury affect his effectiveness?

Cadillac Williams - Showed what he can do the first 3 weeks of the year.  Can he stay healthy and carry the load this year?

Chester Taylor - I trully thought he should have been the starter last year in Baltimore.  He has the skill to run, receive and block.  Childress has stated he sees Taylor getting 20+ touches a game.  Great OL to run behind.  Honestly can't see any negatives with his situation.  Very similar to Jordan's situation last year.

Reuben Droughns - If he can stay out of trouble I can see him slightly increasing on last year's numbers.  Frye is maturing and Winslow should be back in the fold.  Not liking the competition behind him.

Willis McGahee - Seems he has come into training camp with something to prove after declaring himself the best RB in the NFL.  That's going to be hard to prove running behind his OL.  No competition.

Willie Parker - Coming in knowing he's the starter this year on a running team.  Will he get more goalline carries?

Kevin Jones - Intriguing since he's playing in the Martz offense and has been working on his receiving skills during the offseason.

Domanick Davis - Offense has produced top 10 RB #s per game in the last 3 years.  Offense meaning not just Davis.  While I love the RB position on this team, especially with Kubiak coming in, I can't share the love with the brittle Davis who is still experiencing knee problems that may be an ongoing issue.

I threw Parker, Jones and Davis in for the sake of discussion.  In a 14 team, PPR league you may want to consider taking your top WR in the first round followed by the top RB left on your board since they seem to all be interchangable.

LJAlexander

LT

Cadillac

Davis

Westbrook

Portis

Barber

Jordan

Jackson

Johnson

James

McGahee

Droughns

KJones

 

[crazy gadget]

It seems the general consensus is that the top 5 are (in no specific order):

LJ

LT

Alexander

Barber

Portis

Where I'm struggling is the 6-15 RB's (PPR). They all seem pretty interchangable. Plenty of upside, plenty of questions. Curious to hear what you think.

Edgerrin James - Has proven he has the ability but OL concerns. I liked Robert Smith but don't remember if he was a top 10 RB with Green as HC, however, I love Green's pass happy offense and James' receiving skills.

Lamont Jordan - 3 of my 4 leagues are PPR so I like Jordan. How have RB's fared with Shell as HC? Do we expect much of the same as last year, average RB but superior receiving RB?

Brian Westbrook - I love this guy, more than Jordan. When he's healthy he is on average a top 5 RB week in and week out. Can he stay healthy? Does Reid really run the ball more this year? If so, will Westbrook get those carries to keep his touches per game on normal pace?

Steven Jackson - I think the time has come for Jackson to show his true colors. He certainly has the talent but I'm not sure I'm convinced that he is a top 10 RB. If memory serves, Linehan was OC with Green for many years. Again with my Robert Smith question and love for the offense.

Ronnie Brown - With Ricky out of the way it should be all Ronnie all the time. Can he handle the load?

Rudi Johnson - I recently read somewhere that Rudi played injured from week 3 on. Amazing he did what he did being hampered. Chris Perry does not seem to be a threat. Does Palmer's injury affect his effectiveness?

Cadillac Williams - Showed what he can do the first 3 weeks of the year. Can he stay healthy and carry the load this year?

Chester Taylor - I trully thought he should have been the starter last year in Baltimore. He has the skill to run, receive and block. Childress has stated he sees Taylor getting 20+ touches a game. Great OL to run behind. Honestly can't see any negatives with his situation. Very similar to Jordan's situation last year.

Reuben Droughns - If he can stay out of trouble I can see him slightly increasing on last year's numbers. Frye is maturing and Winslow should be back in the fold. Not liking the competition behind him.

Willis McGahee - Seems he has come into training camp with something to prove after declaring himself the best RB in the NFL. That's going to be hard to prove running behind his OL. No competition.

Willie Parker - Coming in knowing he's the starter this year on a running team. Will he get more goalline carries?

Kevin Jones - Intriguing since he's playing in the Martz offense and has been working on his receiving skills during the offseason.

Domanick Davis - Offense has produced top 10 RB #s per game in the last 3 years. Offense meaning not just Davis. While I love the RB position on this team, especially with Kubiak coming in, I can't share the love with the brittle Davis who is still experiencing knee problems that may be an ongoing issue.

I threw Parker, Jones and Davis in for the sake of discussion. In a 14 team, PPR league you may want to consider taking your top WR in the first round followed by the top RB left on your board since they seem to all be interchangable.

Jordan Jackson

Cadillac

R. Brown

Edge

Westbrook

Parker

Rudi

Droughns

McGahee

K.Jones

C.Taylor

Davis shouldn't be on any list as there is no way I can be convinced that he will see the field enough to warrant being mentioned.

 

[SSOG]

No mention of Ron Dayne yet?

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

 

[the branded hand]

PPR Leagues

James

Brown

Jordan

Dom Davis - Yes he's brittle but his numbers when healthy are too hard to ignore.

After that it comes down to who you buy into. I like Jackson and Caddy a lot.

After those guys I agree that the others seem closely packed together. It now comes down to your scoring/lineup/roster. In ppr leagues I usually go RB/WR or WR/WR getting two guys that should have 80-100 rec is huge.

Going TO and Steve Smith is a deadly combination.

In PPR it's really hard not to include Westbrook, don't you think?As for Ron "The Great Anomoly" Dane, the answer is clear as a Bell, 72 degrees with possible thunder today extending throughout the season.

Denver will be fun to watch this year!

 

[Assani Fisher]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

 

[MLBrandow]

Davis shouldn't be on any list as there is no way I can be convinced that he will see the field enough to warrant being mentioned.

Honestly, ban yourself.Last year he was RB16 on the 2-14 Houston Texans behind THE WORST OFFENSIVE LINE IN THE LEAGUE in only 11 games played.

If you scale his numbers across a 16 game season, it nets him 1910 yards 9TDs.

The guy can't stay healthy because he doesn't have a passing game to draw guys out of the box, and his offensive line doesn't block.

Both of those problems have been addressed this offseason (and very well I might add).

I'd like to see what you can do against defenses that stack 9 guys in the box and you've only got five potato sacks between them and you. I don't think you'd come very close to those numbers.

Get off his nuts already, the guy is a stud and a half. Give him a full season under Kubiak's new blocking scheme, and DD might be the first pick in the fantasy draft in '07.

In PPR it's really hard not to include Westbrook, don't you think?

As for Ron "The Great Anomoly" Dane, the answer is clear as a Bell, 72 degrees with possible thunder today extending throughout the season. 

Denver will be fun to watch this year!

That might have been funny if your joke made sense and you spelled Dayne correctly.

Caddy has "done it before"?

1200 yards and 6 TDs is not "doing" it? How about 1200 and 6 while playing through a hamstring and foot injury on the same leg for half the season behind a patchwork OL?

No mention of Ron Dayne yet?

At the risk of using the former ignorant logic.... I'm sticking with the masses and taking a "wait and see" approach to Dayne. I'd love for him to succeed, and I know he'll start over Bell and all the other bad RBs there, but I'm not sure if he'll start over Bell enough to warrant solid fantasy numbers at this point. I see a 60/40 split right now.Can he handle a full load? I certainly think so. Will Shanahan give it to him?

 

[crazy gadget]

Davis shouldn't be on any list as there is no way I can be convinced that he will see the field enough to warrant being mentioned.

Honestly, ban yourself.Last year he was RB16 on the 2-14 Houston Texans behind THE WORST OFFENSIVE LINE IN THE LEAGUE in only 11 games played.

If you scale his numbers across a 16 game season, it nets him 1910 yards 9TDs.

because he doesn't have a passing game to draw guys out of the box, and his offensive line doesn't block.

Both of those problems have been addressed this offseason (and very well I might add).

I'd like to see what you can do against defenses that stack 9 guys in the box and you've only got five potato sacks between them and you. I don't think you'd come very close to those numbers.

Get off his nuts already, the guy is a stud and a half. Give him a full season under Kubiak's new blocking scheme, and DD might be the first pick in the fantasy draft in '07.

Thanks for helping me out with your comments.

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

1178 yds and 6 TDs in 14 games as a rookie is pretty darn good, if you ask me. Maybe he's the last guy in the top tier, but nobody in the lower tier has had better numbers (except Davis two years ago, and he's coming off of a knee injury). Numbers can be revealing.Truth is that Caddy's numbers are about the same as K.Jones' numbers from his rookie year, so you never really know. But watching Caddy, and given his draft status, I'm comfortable with him in the top tier.

 

[Gandalf]

Cadddy's numbers may be about the same, but KJ's numbers came against weak defenses in his rookie year. Caddy had some big games (100+ yards) against some good D's, including Carolina, Buffalo and Atlanta. And Caddy was hurt for several games during the middle of the season. I agree that you never know, but I taking a chance on Caddy is an intelligent risk that I'd be willing to take.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

Sleeping on Droughns is a mistake.He's the clear #1 RB without much of any challenger. He should have 30-45 catches again this year, and the only ding he had last season was his TD production.

That has nowhere to go but up for this year, and should definitely increase because Cleveland had no significant threats in the passing game. Adding the 2nd-dimension to the offense immediately makes Rube better.

Rube should be at worst 1 tier higher.

 

[SSOG]

Cadddy's numbers may be about the same, but KJ's numbers came against weak defenses in his rookie year. Caddy had some big games (100+ yards) against some good D's, including Carolina, Buffalo and Atlanta. And Caddy was hurt for several games during the middle of the season. I agree that you never know, but I taking a chance on Caddy is an intelligent risk that I'd be willing to take.

What what WHAT?!Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the league last year. Buffalo allowed the second most. Atlanta allowed the WORST ypc (4.7). Buffalo allowed the 4th worst (4.5). Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing TDs. Buffalo allowed the most. Atlanta allowed the 4th most rushing first downs. Buffalo allowed the most. According to Football Outsiders, Atlanta was the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL last year, and Buffalo was the 31st. Carolina, for the record, was ranked 12th, so I think that "above average" is more appropriate than "good".

Caddilac Williams ran for 100+ yards 6 times last year. The six rushing defense he went for 100 against were ranked, according to Football Outsiders, 32nd, 32nd, 31st, 22nd, 18th, and 12th. That 12th ranked defense also held him to 29 yards on 11 carries the other time they met that season.

In fact, according to Football Outsiders, the only top-10 rushing defenses Williams faced were Washington (ranked 5th, he ran for 10 carries, 20 yards, 0 TDs), and Chicago (ranked 6th, he ran for 20/84/0). The remaining defenses (who were not top 10, and who he failed to break 100 against) ranked 21, 25, 28, 13, 28.

Caddy ran against a paper-soft schedule of rushing defenses last season.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

Sleeping on Droughns is a mistake.He's the clear #1 RB without much of any challenger. He should have 30-45 catches again this year, and the only ding he had last season was his TD production.

That has nowhere to go but up for this year, and should definitely increase because Cleveland had no significant threats in the passing game. Adding the 2nd-dimension to the offense immediately makes Rube better.

Rube should be at worst 1 tier higher.

Assuming he isn't in jail. Maybe tha's why he's a lower teir.

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

Sleeping on Droughns is a mistake.He's the clear #1 RB without much of any challenger. He should have 30-45 catches again this year, and the only ding he had last season was his TD production.

That has nowhere to go but up for this year, and should definitely increase because Cleveland had no significant threats in the passing game. Adding the 2nd-dimension to the offense immediately makes Rube better.

Rube should be at worst 1 tier higher.

I must say that I'm impressed with Droughns, perhaps he is a tier too low.

 

[hollaatyaboy]

Davis shouldn't be on any list as there is no way I can be convinced that he will see the field enough to warrant being mentioned.

Honestly, ban yourself.Last year he was RB16 on the 2-14 Houston Texans behind THE WORST OFFENSIVE LINE IN THE LEAGUE in only 11 games played.

If you scale his numbers across a 16 game season, it nets him 1910 yards 9TDs.

because he doesn't have a passing game to draw guys out of the box, and his offensive line doesn't block.

Both of those problems have been addressed this offseason (and very well I might add).

I'd like to see what you can do against defenses that stack 9 guys in the box and you've only got five potato sacks between them and you. I don't think you'd come very close to those numbers.

Get off his nuts already, the guy is a stud and a half. Give him a full season under Kubiak's new blocking scheme, and DD might be the first pick in the fantasy draft in '07.

Thanks for helping me out with your comments.

Ignoring his per game average is just a mistake. He is top teir if staying healthy and there is a chance for him to do that. He's taken some serious time off, and don't let the offseason fluff tell you he'll have some serious time off. With the upgraded offense we will probably see the ball spread around more (lessening chance of injury). On top of that, with Kubiak, that RB production will still be there.

 

[H.K.]

Chester Taylor - I trully thought he should have been the starter last year in Baltimore. He has the skill to run, receive and block. Childress has stated he sees Taylor getting 20+ touches a game. Great OL to run behind. Honestly can't see any negatives with his situation. Very similar to Jordan's situation last year.

Taylor has done nothing but generate negative publicity on his work ethic and physical conditioning since he got to MN, no way does he merit any consideration this high.

 

[Blackjacks]

Cadddy's numbers may be about the same, but KJ's numbers came against weak defenses in his rookie year. Caddy had some big games (100+ yards) against some good D's, including Carolina, Buffalo and Atlanta. And Caddy was hurt for several games during the middle of the season. I agree that you never know, but I taking a chance on Caddy is an intelligent risk that I'd be willing to take.

What what WHAT?!Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the league last year. Buffalo allowed the second most. Atlanta allowed the WORST ypc (4.7). Buffalo allowed the 4th worst (4.5). Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing TDs. Buffalo allowed the most. Atlanta allowed the 4th most rushing first downs. Buffalo allowed the most. According to Football Outsiders, Atlanta was the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL last year, and Buffalo was the 31st. Carolina, for the record, was ranked 12th, so I think that "above average" is more appropriate than "good".

Caddilac Williams ran for 100+ yards 6 times last year. The six rushing defense he went for 100 against were ranked, according to Football Outsiders, 32nd, 32nd, 31st, 22nd, 18th, and 12th. That 12th ranked defense also held him to 29 yards on 11 carries the other time they met that season.

In fact, according to Football Outsiders, the only top-10 rushing defenses Williams faced were Washington (ranked 5th, he ran for 10 carries, 20 yards, 0 TDs), and Chicago (ranked 6th, he ran for 20/84/0). The remaining defenses (who were not top 10, and who he failed to break 100 against) ranked 21, 25, 28, 13, 28.

Caddy ran against a paper-soft schedule of rushing defenses last season.

This is the kind of stuff I like to read on this site, excellent post.

I find myself not liking the Caddy as well and this just backs up why I think what I think.

 

[Tick]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I would be willling to bet he averages less than 4 ypc.

That could be, but look at two years ago when the decomposing Emmitt Smith helped Arizona get 15 rushing TDs.

 

[MLBrandow]

Davis shouldn't be on any list as there is no way I can be convinced that he will see the field enough to warrant being mentioned.

Honestly, ban yourself.Last year he was RB16 on the 2-14 Houston Texans behind THE WORST OFFENSIVE LINE IN THE LEAGUE in only 11 games played.

If you scale his numbers across a 16 game season, it nets him 1910 yards 9TDs.

because he doesn't have a passing game to draw guys out of the box, and his offensive line doesn't block.

Both of those problems have been addressed this offseason (and very well I might add).

I'd like to see what you can do against defenses that stack 9 guys in the box and you've only got five potato sacks between them and you. I don't think you'd come very close to those numbers.

Get off his nuts already, the guy is a stud and a half. Give him a full season under Kubiak's new blocking scheme, and DD might be the first pick in the fantasy draft in '07.

Thanks for helping me out with your comments.

Ignoring his per game average is just a mistake. He is top teir if staying healthy and there is a chance for him to do that. He's taken some serious time off, and don't let the offseason fluff tell you he'll have some serious time off. With the upgraded offense we will probably see the ball spread around more (lessening chance of injury). On top of that, with Kubiak, that RB production will still be there.

No kidding. When did we get so many idiots on this forum?

Cadddy's numbers may be about the same, but KJ's numbers came against weak defenses in his rookie year. Caddy had some big games (100+ yards) against some good D's, including Carolina, Buffalo and Atlanta. And Caddy was hurt for several games during the middle of the season. I agree that you never know, but I taking a chance on Caddy is an intelligent risk that I'd be willing to take.

What what WHAT?!Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the league last year. Buffalo allowed the second most. Atlanta allowed the WORST ypc (4.7). Buffalo allowed the 4th worst (4.5). Atlanta allowed the 7th most rushing TDs. Buffalo allowed the most. Atlanta allowed the 4th most rushing first downs. Buffalo allowed the most. According to Football Outsiders, Atlanta was the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL last year, and Buffalo was the 31st. Carolina, for the record, was ranked 12th, so I think that "above average" is more appropriate than "good".

Caddilac Williams ran for 100+ yards 6 times last year. The six rushing defense he went for 100 against were ranked, according to Football Outsiders, 32nd, 32nd, 31st, 22nd, 18th, and 12th. That 12th ranked defense also held him to 29 yards on 11 carries the other time they met that season.

In fact, according to Football Outsiders, the only top-10 rushing defenses Williams faced were Washington (ranked 5th, he ran for 10 carries, 20 yards, 0 TDs), and Chicago (ranked 6th, he ran for 20/84/0). The remaining defenses (who were not top 10, and who he failed to break 100 against) ranked 21, 25, 28, 13, 28.

Caddy ran against a paper-soft schedule of rushing defenses last season.

Regardless of how poorly he did against those teams, he was injured.... the only team that actually shut him down was NE. He was healthy for that game.

 

[harrycarey]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I would be willling to bet he averages less than 4 ypc.

That could be, but look at two years ago when the decomposing Emmitt Smith helped Arizona get 15 rushing TDs.

I also noticed that Arizona running backs were targeted 122 times last year in the passing game, so Edge could see an increase in receiving numbers.

 

[Tick]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I would be willling to bet he averages less than 4 ypc.

That could be, but look at two years ago when the decomposing Emmitt Smith helped Arizona get 15 rushing TDs.

I also noticed that Arizona running backs were targeted 122 times last year in the passing game, so Edge could see an increase in receiving numbers.

I think that's because they weren't good enough to get through the line, so that was the only way to get the ball in their hands. With Edge, it should be a different story.

 

[SSOG]

Regardless of how poorly he did against those teams, he was injured.... the only team that actually shut him down was NE. He was healthy for that game.

That may or may not be. I was not commenting specifically on his performances against each specific team, I was simply saying that the rushing defenses he faced last year were tissue soft.

 

[jbird]

Chester Taylor - I trully thought he should have been the starter last year in Baltimore.  He has the skill to run, receive and block.  Childress has stated he sees Taylor getting 20+ touches a game.  Great OL to run behind.  Honestly can't see any negatives with his situation.  Very similar to Jordan's situation last year.

Taylor has done nothing but generate negative publicity on his work ethic and physical conditioning since he got to MN, no way does he merit any consideration this high.

I'll lower him on my rankings if this is the case when training camp starts. Until then I'm not worried about the still injured Moore and Faison taking time away from him.

 

[BigRed]

He is top teir if staying healthy and there is a chance for him to do that. 

There's also a chance of me winning the lottery, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on that either.I like DD actually, but you have to know if you draft him you're asking for trouble and it's a boom/bust kinda deal. As for the team upgrades, Moulds is a respectable enough acquisition, but I'll believe it when I see it re. the OL upgrades making a major diff.

Back to the orig post.......

Edgerrin James - I think he overcomes a so-so OL to have a good year. Not 1500/15 kinda year, but a good year.

Lamont Jordan - One of the guys I'm targetting as a hopeful "good deal" in my auction league this year as my RB2. OAK should be at least a little better which means more production from this guy, and last year was pretty good in most respects.

Brian Westbrook - always a strong candidate due to the dual threat, but doesn't do much for me personally.

Steven Jackson - the other main guy I'm hoping for as good value at RB2. Should get more touches and could really end up having a big year.

Ronnie Brown - I have been unimpressed w/this RB class as rookies and remain so. Caddy can't stay healthy and not sure this guy will w/a lot of carries either. Could have a big year but just not sold somehow.

Rudi Johnson - my RB2 last year and very solid. I don't think Perry's token touches are worth worrying about. Might be a bit pricey though.

Cadillac Williams - Not saying he's the next FT or DD, but don't trust his health.

Chester Taylor - too many unknowns here but might bite on him for a cheap enough price. Would not be thrilled w/him as my RB2 though.

Reuben Droughns - would probably target this guy if I don't get Jackson, Rudi, or Jordan. Gets the touches and produces.

Willis McGahee - a putz who I trust for production like I trust Jesse Jackson for fidelity.

Willie Parker - IMO will be somewhat erratic, but that "erraticness" is being overblown.

Kevin Jones - guy has been overrated since being drafted, have always said/believed it and he's given me little reason to change. Plus this is the Lions, remember? No thanks.

Domanick Davis - see above.

 

[nygiants56]

My opinion is Edge is the most overrated player that will drafted this year with a very early pick. He might get 1200 all purpose yards but I don't see him getting more than 6 td's

I would be willling to bet he averages less than 4 ypc.

I'll take that bet, you're on! what are we betting, a box of Omaha steaks? send me a msg and we'll exchange addresses..

Even Hillary Clinton could average 4 yards per carry against those pathetic run defenses in the NFC West, Seattle included!

lets look at theire schedule:

over the first 5 weeks of the season, the Cards play 5 of the worst run defenses in the NFL ( I include Seattle's overhyped defense in that list)

SF, seattle, Rams, Falcons, KC..

week 6 = chicago

week 7 = Raiders - another cakewalk defense

week 8 = GB -average run defense..

week 9 = Dallas -good run defense

week 10-13 - Lions,Vikings, Rams, Seattle -cakewalk run defenses..

week 14 = denver.tough D.

week 15 = sf -cakewalk defense

week 16 = SD. solid run defense

aside from week 6,9,14,16, the Cards face some of the worst defenses in the NFL..

if Edge can't muster just 4.0 per carry against subpar defenses like those, he doesn't belong in the NFL..

 

[srnohav]

He is top teir if staying healthy and there is a chance for him to do that. 

There's also a chance of me winning the lottery, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on that either.I like DD actually, but you have to know if you draft him you're asking for trouble and it's a boom/bust kinda deal. As for the team upgrades, Moulds is a respectable enough acquisition, but I'll believe it when I see it re. the OL upgrades making a major diff.

Back to the orig post.......

Edgerrin James - I think he overcomes a so-so OL to have a good year. Not 1500/15 kinda year, but a good year.

Lamont Jordan - One of the guys I'm targetting as a hopeful "good deal" in my auction league this year as my RB2. OAK should be at least a little better which means more production from this guy, and last year was pretty good in most respects.

Brian Westbrook - always a strong candidate due to the dual threat, but doesn't do much for me personally.

Steven Jackson - the other main guy I'm hoping for as good value at RB2. Should get more touches and could really end up having a big year.

Ronnie Brown - I have been unimpressed w/this RB class as rookies and remain so. Caddy can't stay healthy and not sure this guy will w/a lot of carries either. Could have a big year but just not sold somehow.

Rudi Johnson - my RB2 last year and very solid. I don't think Perry's token touches are worth worrying about. Might be a bit pricey though.

Cadillac Williams - Not saying he's the next FT or DD, but don't trust his health.

Chester Taylor - too many unknowns here but might bite on him for a cheap enough price. Would not be thrilled w/him as my RB2 though.

Reuben Droughns - would probably target this guy if I don't get Jackson, Rudi, or Jordan. Gets the touches and produces.

Willis McGahee - a putz who I trust for production like I trust Jesse Jackson for fidelity.

Willie Parker - IMO will be somewhat erratic, but that "erraticness" is being overblown.

Kevin Jones - guy has been overrated since being drafted, have always said/believed it and he's given me little reason to change. Plus this is the Lions, remember? No thanks.

Domanick Davis - see above.

2nd RB???? who is your first? Johnson, Jordan, Jackson will all be gone by the end of the first round

 

[Usual Suspect]

I don't think 6-15 are interchangeable. It looks like their are a couple of tiers:

Edge, Jordan, Westbrook, R.Johnson, Caddy and McGahee have all done it before, and I say they are the top tier

Steve Jackson, R.Brown and D.Davis all have great opportunities. Davis is coming back from the injury, or he'd be in the upper tier. Jackson and Brown should get all the work for their teams now.

Taylor, Droughns, Parker, and KJ are all guys with some questions over how much work they will get and how good they actually are.

Caddy has "done it before"?

SJax - 1046yards 8TD plus 320 receiving yards for 2 TD. 1366 total yards with 10TD.Caddy - 1178yards 6TD plus 81 recieving yards for 0 TD. 1259 total yards with 6TD.

If Caddy has "done it before" then I would argue that SJax has done it before as well, and better!

 

[thecardiackid]

He is top teir if staying healthy and there is a chance for him to do that. 

There's also a chance of me winning the lottery, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on that either.I like DD actually, but you have to know if you draft him you're asking for trouble and it's a boom/bust kinda deal. As for the team upgrades, Moulds is a respectable enough acquisition, but I'll believe it when I see it re. the OL upgrades making a major diff.

Back to the orig post.......

Edgerrin James - I think he overcomes a so-so OL to have a good year. Not 1500/15 kinda year, but a good year.

Lamont Jordan - One of the guys I'm targetting as a hopeful "good deal" in my auction league this year as my RB2. OAK should be at least a little better which means more production from this guy, and last year was pretty good in most respects.

Brian Westbrook - always a strong candidate due to the dual threat, but doesn't do much for me personally.

Steven Jackson - the other main guy I'm hoping for as good value at RB2. Should get more touches and could really end up having a big year.

Ronnie Brown - I have been unimpressed w/this RB class as rookies and remain so. Caddy can't stay healthy and not sure this guy will w/a lot of carries either. Could have a big year but just not sold somehow.

Rudi Johnson - my RB2 last year and very solid. I don't think Perry's token touches are worth worrying about. Might be a bit pricey though.

Cadillac Williams - Not saying he's the next FT or DD, but don't trust his health.

Chester Taylor - too many unknowns here but might bite on him for a cheap enough price. Would not be thrilled w/him as my RB2 though.

Reuben Droughns - would probably target this guy if I don't get Jackson, Rudi, or Jordan. Gets the touches and produces.

Willis McGahee - a putz who I trust for production like I trust Jesse Jackson for fidelity.

Willie Parker - IMO will be somewhat erratic, but that "erraticness" is being overblown.

Kevin Jones - guy has been overrated since being drafted, have always said/believed it and he's given me little reason to change. Plus this is the Lions, remember? No thanks.

Domanick Davis - see above.

2nd RB???? who is your first? Johnson, Jordan, Jackson will all be gone by the end of the first round

Agreed for re-draft, but maybe he's got extra picks early via trade, is in a keeper w/ a high pick, or uses auction drafting.Personally, as a #7 slot holder in a 14 team non-keeper re-draft, I don't get the lack of love for Rudi. His ADP is 10 behind R Brown, S Jackson, and Jordan. Sure, he should be lumped in w/ these guys, but @ the end of the tier? Maybe it's that he plays in a tough D division vs. PIT and BAL x2, but of that group he's the one guy that has proven it for more than a partial season or one year. And evidently he did it last year w/ a minor knee injury. Don't tell me the Palmer situation is causing this - since IMO if CP doesn't play till week 6 (rumor), CIN will have to run more obviously.

From #6 on here's mine (non PPR) w/ Portis @ 4 & Tiki @ #5

Rudi - *safest* w/ no significant changes to scheme / surrounding talent

S Jackson - maybe 300 carries and 10ish TDs <or> 250 and ~ 7

Edge - could be top 5, but could also be 15

L Jordan - nice PPR, but I'm concerned about Brooks' change of venue

<drop>

R Brown - no more RW and now w/ the opportunity

Caddy - flashes, but still ?s and Simms scares the #&$! out of me

Willis - too many team changes this year for me

Westy - not used enough (no PPR). that may change if Reid keeps his word.

D Davis - I won't roll the dice w/ a knee that's already swelling in OTAs.

 

[Shiver44]

In a PPR league, here is my rankings;

Larry Johnson - With Herm/Solari, he'll see Curtis Martin workload, with near 425 touches.

LaDainian Tomlinson - He's consistent, his catches will go up with Rivers at QB.

Ronnie Brown - He'll be a beast, don't underestimate him.

Shaun Alexander - Loss of Hutchinson hurts his TD and Yardage production, which takes him down in a PPR league.

LaMont Jordan - The transition from Norv to Art Shell will help him.

Tiki Barber - He is the lead canidate for the "RB Wall," so i'd be nervous taking him.

Steven Jackson - Linehan's offense will benefit him so much, at his size, they will feed the beast.

Clinton Portis - In Washington, his numbers have a cap on them, I think. 1,500 - 1,700 total yards, and 8-10 total touchdowns. Good, but not great.

Carnell Williams - Health is his only concern, but a big one at that.

Brian Westbrook - Make sure to lock up Ryan Moats late in the draft when, not if, he goes down to a injury.

Kevin Jones - Martz has been raving about him. He thinks he can be a 15 carry/10 catch back. Jones has been working very hard at catching the football this off-season, as well as shedding weight to become more explosive. A lot of people will look at last year, instead of 2004 and college, and overlook him, don't be one of those. He can blossom into a very good back next year.

Rudi Johnson - The only problem with Johnson is his slow starts and his lack of receiving ability. He's the safe pick though, you can't really go wrong.

Edgerrin James - His production will decline in Arizona, he'll be a good number two back though.

Chester Taylor - If he can perform, he would be higher than this. He is perfect for this offense. Will get a lot of catches, and is playing behind a monster O-Line, with three pro-bowlers. The only "?" is if he will fend off Fason/Moore to be the primary back.

Domanick Davis - Buyer beware! Injuries are a plague, he cannot escape. Kubiak has raved about the depth at RB for the team, either expect a injury shortened season, or for him to spelled a lot. Either way, it's a risky situation for me to draft him.

Reuben Droughns - Solid, if unspectacular number two RB.

Tatum Bell - Has tons of upside, if Dayne underwhelms ala 2004 Giants.

Willie Parker - Won't receive many Goal-Line looks, which limits his value.

 

[houndirish]

After the elite's, of the backs you mentioned, Steven Jackson would be my selection. He gets the nod narrowly over Lamont Jordan.

Jackson has no competition for touches in the Ram offense. It will not resemble the pass-only Martz affair of a year ago so Jackson logging 20+ carries a game will be the norm not the exception. Jackson's already shown the ability to be a solid receiver out of the backfield too. If anybody's looking for the guy this year, who's name will be mentioned as a top 5 pick overall next year, it's Steven Jackson.

I like Jordan too as he similarly has no competition for touches and I think Art Shell will do good things with that young talented O-Line.

I like Rudi but if Chris Perry is healthy he'll be part of the equation.

I've always been a Caddy fan but Pittman gets the receptions.

Ronnie Brown hasn't been asked to carry the full load so I can see him having almost the identical season Caddy had last year ... good numbers combined with nagging inuries.

Davis's knee is too big a risk for him to be be considered among the top names in this group.

I like Droughns .... but I don't like him better than Jax. Not only that, the Rams have the ability to throw the ball to take pressure off teh run game. I'm not sure if Cleveland has that option just yet.

Westbrook is a nice RB2 but he's sort of a catch 22. He simply isn't durable enough to handle featureback duties for the full 16 games. So if Moats or whoever else comes off the bench, is productive, I think Philly scales Westy back a bit. If they're not, Westy has to shoulder the load and winds up playing 12 games. Not only that, the Eagles don't seem to like to run Westbrook inside the 5.

 

[SSOG]

In a PPR league, here is my rankings;

LaMont Jordan - The transition from Norv to Art Shell will help him.

Brian Westbrook - Make sure to lock up Ryan Moats late in the draft when, not if, he goes down to a injury.

Domanick Davis - Buyer beware! Injuries are a plague, he cannot escape. Kubiak has raved about the depth at RB for the team, either expect a injury shortened season, or for him to spelled a lot. Either way, it's a risky situation for me to draft him.

Tatum Bell - Has tons of upside, if Dayne underwhelms ala 2004 Giants.

Re LaMont Jordan... why do you think going from Turner to Shell will help his value? The majority of Jordan's value last year came from his 70 receptions. Only once in Shell's career has an RB had more than 30 receptions. Also, Turner may be a poor coach, but he's famous for the workload and numbers he gives to fantasy RBs (Steven Davis, Ricky Williams, Terry Allen, etc).Re Brian Westbrook/Dominick Davis... why are you so high on Westy and low on Davis? Westbrook has never had more than 250 touches in a career. Since becoming heavily featured in the offenses, both have averaged 13.3 games a season. Over the last 3 seasons, despite playing the same number of games, Westy has 3693 yards and 27 TDs (92.3/.675 a game) compared to Davis' 4471 yards and 28 TDs (111.8/.7 a game). Even in PPR leagues... Westy averages just 5.7 more catches a year.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just curious why everyone seems to be so much higher on Westy than they are on DomDavis when, in my mind, they're pretty comparable players. Do you expect Westy's numbers to skyrocket with Owens out of town, or are you still leery of Davis' knee?

Re Tatum Bell... I am always strongly opposed to ranking a backup RB before the starter. Even last year, when it seemed common sense to rank Benson ahead of Thomas Jones... how did that work out?

 

[MLBrandow]

In a PPR league, here is my rankings;

Larry Johnson - With Herm/Solari, he'll see Curtis Martin workload, with near 425 touches.

LaDainian Tomlinson - He's consistent, his catches will go up with Rivers at QB.

Ronnie Brown - He'll be a beast, don't underestimate him.

Shaun Alexander - Loss of Hutchinson hurts his TD and Yardage production, which takes him down in a PPR league.

LaMont Jordan - The transition from Norv to Art Shell will help him.

Tiki Barber - He is the lead canidate for the "RB Wall," so i'd be nervous taking him.

Steven Jackson - Linehan's offense will benefit him so much, at his size, they will feed the beast.

Clinton Portis - In Washington, his numbers have a cap on them, I think. 1,500 - 1,700 total yards, and 8-10 total touchdowns. Good, but not great.

Carnell Williams - Health is his only concern, but a big one at that.

Brian Westbrook - Make sure to lock up Ryan Moats late in the draft when, not if, he goes down to a injury.

Kevin Jones - Martz has been raving about him. He thinks he can be a 15 carry/10 catch back. Jones has been working very hard at catching the football this off-season, as well as shedding weight to become more explosive. A lot of people will look at last year, instead of 2004 and college, and overlook him, don't be one of those. He can blossom into a very good back next year.

Rudi Johnson - The only problem with Johnson is his slow starts and his lack of receiving ability. He's the safe pick though, you can't really go wrong.

Edgerrin James - His production will decline in Arizona, he'll be a good number two back though.

Chester Taylor - If he can perform, he would be higher than this. He is perfect for this offense. Will get a lot of catches, and is playing behind a monster O-Line, with three pro-bowlers. The only "?" is if he will fend off Fason/Moore to be the primary back.

Domanick Davis - Buyer beware! Injuries are a plague, he cannot escape. Kubiak has raved about the depth at RB for the team, either expect a injury shortened season, or for him to spelled a lot. Either way, it's a risky situation for me to draft him.

Reuben Droughns - Solid, if unspectacular number two RB.

Tatum Bell - Has tons of upside, if Dayne underwhelms ala 2004 Giants.

Willie Parker - Won't receive many Goal-Line looks, which limits his value.

HOLY ####

 

[Shiver44]

Re LaMont Jordan... why do you think going from Turner to Shell will help his value? The majority of Jordan's value last year came from his 70 receptions. Only once in Shell's career has an RB had more than 30 receptions. Also, Turner may be a poor coach, but he's famous for the workload and numbers he gives to fantasy RBs (Steven Davis, Ricky Williams, Terry Allen, etc).

Art Shell is emphasising the O-Line, and feeding Jordan the ball. Something, Norv didn't always do. He's fresh, at 5'10" 230, yet he didn't get workhorse back type carries consistently.

Re Brian Westbrook/Dominick Davis... why are you so high on Westy and low on Davis? Westbrook has never had more than 250 touches in a career. Since becoming heavily featured in the offenses, both have averaged 13.3 games a season. Over the last 3 seasons, despite playing the same number of games, Westy has 3693 yards and 27 TDs (92.3/.675 a game) compared to Davis' 4471 yards and 28 TDs (111.8/.7 a game). Even in PPR leagues... Westy averages just 5.7 more catches a year.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just curious why everyone seems to be so much higher on Westy than they are on DomDavis when, in my mind, they're pretty comparable players. Do you expect Westy's numbers to skyrocket with Owens out of town, or are you still leery of Davis' knee?

Gary Kubiak has raved about the depth that they have at Running Back. With Davis' injury history, I see a diminished workload. Besides, Denver's system has emphasised the Tight End in the passing game, not the Running Backs in the flat. So I think, Davis won't attain his previous catch totals.About the latter, both. I think Westbrook's numbers will climb. Davis' recent knee injury bothers me, along with his past concerns.

Re Tatum Bell... I am always strongly opposed to ranking a backup RB before the starter. Even last year, when it seemed common sense to rank Benson ahead of Thomas Jones... how did that work out?

In 2004, the common sentiment was that Dayne was going to be the starter for the Giants, edging out Tiki Barber. How did that work? I won't make the same mistake and ASSume Dayne is all the sudden going to be "The Man."

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

In a PPR league, here is my rankings;

LaMont Jordan - The transition from Norv to Art Shell will help him.

Brian Westbrook - Make sure to lock up Ryan Moats late in the draft when, not if, he goes down to a injury.

Domanick Davis - Buyer beware! Injuries are a plague, he cannot escape. Kubiak has raved about the depth at RB for the team, either expect a injury shortened season, or for him to spelled a lot. Either way, it's a risky situation for me to draft him.

Tatum Bell - Has tons of upside, if Dayne underwhelms ala 2004 Giants.

Re LaMont Jordan... why do you think going from Turner to Shell will help his value? The majority of Jordan's value last year came from his 70 receptions. Only once in Shell's career has an RB had more than 30 receptions. Also, Turner may be a poor coach, but he's famous for the workload and numbers he gives to fantasy RBs (Steven Davis, Ricky Williams, Terry Allen, etc).

LaMont Jordan Receptions50-60 receptions is a given.

 

[SSOG]

Re LaMont Jordan... why do you think going from Turner to Shell will help his value? The majority of Jordan's value last year came from his 70 receptions. Only once in Shell's career has an RB had more than 30 receptions. Also, Turner may be a poor coach, but he's famous for the workload and numbers he gives to fantasy RBs (Steven Davis, Ricky Williams, Terry Allen, etc).

Art Shell is emphasising the O-Line, and feeding Jordan the ball. Something, Norv didn't always do. He's fresh, at 5'10" 230, yet he didn't get workhorse back type carries consistently.

Re Brian Westbrook/Dominick Davis... why are you so high on Westy and low on Davis? Westbrook has never had more than 250 touches in a career. Since becoming heavily featured in the offenses, both have averaged 13.3 games a season. Over the last 3 seasons, despite playing the same number of games, Westy has 3693 yards and 27 TDs (92.3/.675 a game) compared to Davis' 4471 yards and 28 TDs (111.8/.7 a game). Even in PPR leagues... Westy averages just 5.7 more catches a year.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just curious why everyone seems to be so much higher on Westy than they are on DomDavis when, in my mind, they're pretty comparable players. Do you expect Westy's numbers to skyrocket with Owens out of town, or are you still leery of Davis' knee?

Gary Kubiak has raved about the depth that they have at Running Back. With Davis' injury history, I see a diminished workload. Besides, Denver's system has emphasised the Tight End in the passing game, not the Running Backs in the flat. So I think, Davis won't attain his previous catch totals.About the latter, both. I think Westbrook's numbers will climb. Davis' recent knee injury bothers me, along with his past concerns.

Re Tatum Bell... I am always strongly opposed to ranking a backup RB before the starter. Even last year, when it seemed common sense to rank Benson ahead of Thomas Jones... how did that work out?

In 2004, the common sentiment was that Dayne was going to be the starter for the Giants, edging out Tiki Barber. How did that work? I won't make the same mistake and ASSume Dayne is all the sudden going to be "The Man."

Good points on Jordan, Westbrook, and Davis. I disagree with your point on Dayne, though.In 2004, the COMMON SENTIMENT was that Dayne was going to be the starter... but he never was the starter. He was a backup, and people gambled on him because they thought he'd unseat the starter. That's a better comparison to TATUM BELL this year than to Dayne again.

Again, my point is, there have been several instances where people have BELIEVED that a backup RB would become the starting RB at some point, and the vast majority of the time, it hasn't worked out. Examples are Tatum Bell last year, Cedric Benson last year, Larry Johnson last year (he never won the starting job over Holmes, although he got it when Holmes was injured), and as you mentioned, Ron Dayne in 2004.

I hesitate to say never, but I am always VERY VERY hesitant to even CONSIDER taking a backup before the starter. Even when it seems like a sure thing, history says it's usually not.

LaMont Jordan Receptions

50-60 receptions is a given.

I disagree with you. I think the coach's tendencies are FAR more important than the QB's. It's entirely POSSIBLE that Brooks' tendencies will be the primary factor here, but I hardly think it's a "given".