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RB Alex Collins, SEA (3 Viewers)

I'm not super-high on Collins. That said, he seems to be the RB to own in Baltimore.

This is a case of upside vs. two known mostly mediocre options. I'm not exactly sure what we have in Collins, but in this specific situation, I'll take a chance on the upside.

 
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Alluro said:
Bryce Brown had an amazing first two games and then disappeared.
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Being an Eagles fan and watching Bryce and Collins I can tell you they don’t look the same at all. Take that FWIW

The kid looks good, is impressing coaches and seems to be getting the ball more and more. That’s all you can ask for right now. 

 
Look, in all likelihood odds are that collins will amount to nothing.  But if he hits he looks like he can be a league winner.  RT now he's a great end of bench stash to see what happens.  If he hits we will do the balky dance of joy.  If he busts we will drop his #### for the next guy up. 

 
I don't see the faith in west as compares to the detractors for Collins. I thought he looked decent in Seattle in his one year, gets cut in a numbers crunch and here we are. West has had multiple shots to seize different backfields and he's a proven stiff. Lot more disconcerting history there. 

 
rickyg said:
Look, in all likelihood odds are that collins will amount to nothing.  But if he hits he looks like he can be a league winner.  RT now he's a great end of bench stash to see what happens.  If he hits we will do the balky dance of joy.  If he busts we will drop his #### for the next guy up. 
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Disagree on that one. Ravens need a play maker bad right now. 

 
spodog said:
:thumbup:

Agree.   I refer to this as the Andre Johnson evaluation.     If the guy looks like he'll be a beast, and has even an inkling of an opportunity,  he's worth a stash.    Eventually he'll shine. 

Collins fits this to a tee.  Current stats say he's a zero.  Watching him on film he looks like an early version of Ricky Williams or Marshawn.
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I like Alex Collins but he is nothing like Ricky Williams or Marshawn Lynch. He does that have the power those players had.

You folks want to talk about just watching the player then draw conclusions like this?

 
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Biabreakable said:
I like Alex Collins but he is nothing like Ricky Williams or Marshawn Lynch. He does that have the power those players had.

You folks want to talk about just watching the player then draw conclusions like this?
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I don't think he does. I'm not sure who he looks like but I really like his vision and acceleration. That is a good combo.

 
Weebs210 said:
I don't think he does. I'm not sure who he looks like but I really like his vision and acceleration. That is a good combo.
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I am not sure who I would compare him to at this point. I don't think I know enough about Collins yet to make such a comparison.

If he were like Marshawn Lynch, I think he would still be a Seahawk, because that is what they are looking for.

Collins does not run with the low pad level and power of these two players. I would describe him as a slasher, he has very good footwork, balance and some decent burst. I can see some similarities between him and Marlon Mack although I think Collins at the college level stays on script more than Mack does.

A really optimistic comparison for me would be Terry Allen. I can see some similar traits as far as his footwork, balance and change of direction ability.

Just doing a quick google I see comparisons for him being all over the place. Some of those are comparing him to Marshawn Lynch so it isn't as outlandish a comparison as my personal reaction to it. I still disagree with this comparison on the basis of pad level and ability to gain yards after contact. I don't see that as being similar at all. The footwork and balance yes, but not the power. 

Lance Zeirlein compares Collins to Chris Ivory. To be honest I haven't spent much time watching Ivory so I am not sure what to say about this comparison but I respect Zierliens work. Another comparison I saw was CJ Anderson. Again I can see that as far as his footwork, balance and change of direction ability. Collins does not run as low as Anderson does and he is a slightly taller player than Anderson is. I do not see the thick legs and ability to drive after contact like Anderson however.

 
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Biabreakable said:
spodog said:
:thumbup:

Agree.   I refer to this as the Andre Johnson evaluation.     If the guy looks like he'll be a beast, and has even an inkling of an opportunity,  he's worth a stash.    Eventually he'll shine. 

Collins fits this to a tee.  Current stats say he's a zero.  Watching him on film he looks like an early version of Ricky Williams or Marshawn.
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I like Alex Collins but he is nothing like Ricky Williams or Marshawn Lynch. He does that have the power those players had.

You folks want to talk about just watching the player then draw conclusions like this?
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Seriously. The Andre Johnson part doesn't make any sense either.

 
humpback said:
Seriously. The Andre Johnson part doesn't make any sense either.
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Andre Johnson was a very physically gifted WR similar to Terrell Owens. He was a very high first round pick. I am not sure what is meant by bringing him up at all. I think it was pretty obvious to everyone including NFL evaluators that he was going to be a special player. Meanwhile Alex Collins was a 5th round pick.

I like Alex Collins, I thought he had a real shot to become the Seahawks featured RB and I think he is a better runner than CJ Prosise, so its a bit confusing to me why he failed to make an impact for them.

Todem and others are saying that we are overthinking it and all we have to do is watch the players. Well I have watched the players and Collins didn't make it with the Seahawks. My view of Collins being a better RB than Prosise appears to be wrong at least from the Seahawks view. It would be willfully ignorant for me to not wonder about that and to ask why.

I appreciated socrates pointing out that Collins put on weight with the Seahawks but lost some of his burst as a result of that. I believe he is a Seahawks fan so knows more about details like this than I do. His comments helped me get a better understanding of Collins as a player, then Todem is saying this discussion is overthinking things. 

I would say Todems view is underthinking things. If I could just watch the players and figure it out from solely that, there would be little need for any discussion at all.

 
Charlie Harper said:
Can he eventually take over 3rd down/passing duties? 
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A few of Collins flaws related to this question are that he had a pretty high fumble rate in college. That might be one of the things the Seahawks did not like about him. In his first action against the Browns he had a fumble. So that is a still a reason for some concern related to him getting playing time.

He did not catch the ball very much in college, so hard to say what his abilities as a receiver are like. Another knock on him is his pass protection which I would assume has improved since he entered the NFL but may still be an issue preventing him from earning 3 down role.

Looking at his stats he has a 100% catch rate so far 11 targets 11 receptions and 84 receiving yards. 7.6 yards per reception is average for a RB but the catch rate has been flawless. He has not been targeted yet with the Ravens.

 
Biabreakable said:
I like Alex Collins but he is nothing like Ricky Williams or Marshawn Lynch. He does that have the power those players had.

You folks want to talk about just watching the player then draw conclusions like this?
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I am not drawing those conclusions at all.

The only conclusion I can easily draw.....is he is easily the best RB on the Baltimore Ravens....right now.

That's all.

I have not declared him anything but the future starter in Baltimore if he continues this display of skill again the week. 

 
Biabreakable said:
A. Collins Week 3 vs. JAC

Thanks to SSND for putting this together.
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Biabreakable said:
See the play at the 1:30 mark of the clips.

The play is clearly a run to the right side and they are all blocking that way. It looks like an outside zone to the right. The LB 56 is unblocked on this play and meets Collins in the backfield just a tick after he gets the ball. 56 tries to tackle Collins high, but he does a spin move and gets out of the tackle then runs to the left away from his blocking.

I doubt any coach would have a problem with this play because of the early penetration by 56 and more space on the left side for Collins to run even though he doesn't have any blocking support there. The QB does get out in front to block one defender, and in some ways it seems like that is by design, or at least the QB does not hesitate at all getting out in front of him on the play.

The other one is at the 3:40 mark. The defense is stacked to the left on this play. The right guard and tackle both block to the left but 92 gets into the backfield untouched meeting Collins just after he gets the hand off. Collins runs this play to the right away from the penetrating defender and this does look a bit like a counter play but I think the blocking was meant for this run to go to the left side, the right tackle is the only blocker sealing off the back side. Collins makes the right decision to take this to the right for a pretty good run because the DE 91 rushes the QB and Collins is able to get in front of him. That was his job to stop the cut back which could have resulted in a tackle for loss but he messed it up and Collins takes advantage of that. I think the play was designed to run inside to the left though.
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The 1:30 run ended up looking a lot like a zone read play. It's set up to run right, and they leave the edge defender #56 on the offensive left side unblocked. With a different QB, they could design the play so that if 56 crashes down then the QB can keep it and run outside to the left with tons of space. But it's Ryan "-2 career rushing yards" Mallett, so it's just a handoff. 56 does crash down, and Collins tries to play it as if he's the QB who kept the ball, spinning left to avoid 56 and then taking it outside to the offensive left. He follows the QB, who gets out in front of him to throw a block.

The 3:40 play just looks like a nice cutback. The play was designed to go left but he sees tons of daylight to the right after the DE on that side came too far upfield and everyone else on the defense got caught up in the middle of the field. Good blocks by the C and RT to seal their guys inside.

 
Really have a feeling about this guy this week. Don't think I have the nuggets to flex him in my PPR over Ingram or Duke, who seem to have a much safer floor. Hmmmmm. 

 
Man In The Box said:
Really have a feeling about this guy this week. Don't think I have the nuggets to flex him in my PPR over Ingram or Duke, who seem to have a much safer floor. Hmmmmm. 
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I want to put him in one of my flex spots, but dunno... options are:

Martavis Bryant @ Bal (current spot)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs Jax

It's going to come down to Sunday where beat reporters usually reveal team intentions based on warmups.

 
Todem said:
I am not drawing those conclusions at all.

The only conclusion I can easily draw.....is he is easily the best RB on the Baltimore Ravens....right now.

That's all.

I have not declared him anything but the future starter in Baltimore if he continues this display of skill again the week. 
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I tend to agree with this although a healthy Woodhead might be an exception. It may be that Buck Allen or Woodhead still have a significant role in the offense regardless.

What I don't like about your previous response to me is you saying that I am overthinking it. With a situation like this I try to turn over every rock I can find. It seems appropriate to do so before deciding to make trades or even just picking Collins up, you still have to drop something for him, so you are trading with the waiver wire. Also relevant discussion as far as people trying to decide if they will start him or not.

There are still many issues and considerations that haven't been discussed yet in regards to this. Your post struck me as an oversimplification of those details and saying that they don't matter. That all we have to do is watch the player, and that is not something I agree with. 

 
ZWK said:
The 1:30 run ended up looking a lot like a zone read play. It's set up to run right, and they leave the edge defender #56 on the offensive left side unblocked. With a different QB, they could design the play so that if 56 crashes down then the QB can keep it and run outside to the left with tons of space. But it's Ryan "-2 career rushing yards" Mallett, so it's just a handoff. 56 does crash down, and Collins tries to play it as if he's the QB who kept the ball, spinning left to avoid 56 and then taking it outside to the offensive left. He follows the QB, who gets out in front of him to throw a block.

The 3:40 play just looks like a nice cutback. The play was designed to go left but he sees tons of daylight to the right after the DE on that side came too far upfield and everyone else on the defense got caught up in the middle of the field. Good blocks by the C and RT to seal their guys inside.
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Yeah maybe that run was a zone read option. I think that is a good point.

 
West needs to get out the way. Baltimore leads the league in rushes (99) and run ratio (~56%). The value would be terrific if it weren't a 3-way committee.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
West needs to get out the way. Baltimore leads the league in rushes (99) and run ratio (~56%). The value would be terrific if it weren't a 3-way committee.
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How many times have we seen this kind of scenario? I have Collins and West and hoping for some sort of winner take all cage match but that's just wishful thinking. We can analyze what Collins has done and West hasn't done but that doesn't always align to what Baltimore will do - at least in terms of timing...

 
habsfan said:
How many times have we seen this kind of scenario? I have Collins and West and hoping for some sort of winner take all cage match but that's just wishful thinking.
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That's true, and there's a WHOLE bunch of wishful thinking in this thread.

I'm on record as liking his running style, he displayed the kind of quick, inside cutting I think translates to the NFL. 

Nonetheless, he has a less than great combine profile, lower draft pedigree, has been cut, and not seen significant meaningful snaps for his new team, that has two other backs they use, and have Woodhead returning.

Now those are all facts. Liking what you saw in garbage time is fine, I agree he looked good.  

But if you picked him up, and if there's this kind of optimism in your league, the smart move might be to see what you can get for him.

 
As a Seahawks fan, I was pretty stoked when we drafted this guy. The SEC pedigree and production was there and while he doesn't have the brute power and balance of Marshawn (few do), he seemed to have the body type and enough wiggle to be a potential heir. But in his time here, he always looked slow and plodding and ultimately JAG. Especially when being compared to Carson and a healthy Rawls & Procise.

He looked like a different back to me in that Jax game and now, as a Buck Allen owner, I'm trying to decide if I should cut bait with him and snag Collins before he repeats this week or if it will ultimately be just a flash and he goes back to being the nothing special he was in Seattle. I don't know if it's just a better scheme for him or if he's magically rediscovered his vision and burst but if he had shown any of that this preseason I think he'd still be a Seahawk and they would've bailed on Lacy sooner.

He still sitting on our waiver wire and I'd have to cut Allen to pick him him up. Part of me thinks I should know better since he was such a perpetual letdown in Seattle but I'm leaning that way. 

 
Pigskin P said:
As a Seahawks fan, I was pretty stoked when we drafted this guy. The SEC pedigree and production was there and while he doesn't have the brute power and balance of Marshawn (few do), he seemed to have the body type and enough wiggle to be a potential heir. But in his time here, he always looked slow and plodding and ultimately JAG. Especially when being compared to Carson and a healthy Rawls & Procise.

He looked like a different back to me in that Jax game and now, as a Buck Allen owner, I'm trying to decide if I should cut bait with him and snag Collins before he repeats this week or if it will ultimately be just a flash and he goes back to being the nothing special he was in Seattle. I don't know if it's just a better scheme for him or if he's magically rediscovered his vision and burst but if he had shown any of that this preseason I think he'd still be a Seahawk and they would've bailed on Lacy sooner.

He still sitting on our waiver wire and I'd have to cut Allen to pick him him up. Part of me thinks I should know better since he was such a perpetual letdown in Seattle but I'm leaning that way. 
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If it was standard I would definitely want Collins.. Probably PPR too.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
West needs to get out the way. Baltimore leads the league in rushes (99) and run ratio (~56%). The value would be terrific if it weren't a 3-way committee.
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I would caution against reading too much into this. The Ravens have had a very position game flow for running the ball so far- they jumped ahead early against bad teams the 1st two weeks and got throttled early last week, plus they were likely easing Flacco back into things after his injury. They were dead last in the NFL in run % last year, so while I know they want to be more committed to running the ball, I'd expect them to be more middle of the pack going forward. The O-line is pretty dreadful as well.

 
humpback said:
I would caution against reading too much into this. The Ravens have had a very position game flow for running the ball so far- they jumped ahead early against bad teams the 1st two weeks and got throttled early last week, plus they were likely easing Flacco back into things after his injury. They were dead last in the NFL in run % last year, so while I know they want to be more committed to running the ball, I'd expect them to be more middle of the pack going forward. The O-line is pretty dreadful as well.
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Hard to run the ball with a bunch of jags getting touches. That could change with Collins.

 
Here’s the easy way to handle Collins.  If you have a roster spot available and he is free or very cheap then grab him now and see what happens. 

If you have to cut a decent player or pay anything greater than a 5th round rookie pick for him, then just wait and see.  

I can’t see him going off on the Steelers for a huge game.  And there was nothing in that Jaguars game that convinced me that he is any better than west or Allen.  Just because he had a few nice runs and cuts in those plays.  You can see the Jags defense was barely even playing.  And giving huge holes.  I’m honestly disappointed that he didn’t have better stats with the amount of room he had.  I’m not sold on him yet.  But again, if he’s free and you have the room grab him now just in case. 

 
Weebs210 said:
If you say so.
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:lmao:

Do you ever put any actual thought into your posts? I gave reasonable explanations for why I believe they have run the ball so much the 1st 3 weeks- do you disagree with them? Do you think they will finish the year #1 in rushing attempts and ratio?

 
jmo87usc said:
Here’s the easy way to handle Collins.  If you have a roster spot available and he is free or very cheap then grab him now and see what happens. 

If you have to cut a decent player or pay anything greater than a 5th round rookie pick for him, then just wait and see.  

I can’t see him going off on the Steelers for a huge game.  And there was nothing in that Jaguars game that convinced me that he is any better than west or Allen.  Just because he had a few nice runs and cuts in those plays.  You can see the Jags defense was barely even playing.  And giving huge holes.  I’m honestly disappointed that he didn’t have better stats with the amount of room he had.  I’m not sold on him yet.  But again, if he’s free and you have the room grab him now just in case. 
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You are incorrect and here is why:  https://youtu.be/LQCU36pkH7c

 
humpback said:
:lmao:

Do you ever put any actual thought into your posts? I gave reasonable explanations for why I believe they have run the ball so much the 1st 3 weeks- do you disagree with them? Do you think they will finish the year #1 in rushing attempts and ratio?
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I do. I do disagree with you. Why not? Good defense and a weak passing game. I can post little faces too!  :lmao:

 
humpback said:
:lmao:

Do you ever put any actual thought into your posts? I gave reasonable explanations for why I believe they have run the ball so much the 1st 3 weeks- do you disagree with them? Do you think they will finish the year #1 in rushing attempts and ratio?
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While I don't agree with Weebs overestimating the ability of Collins, Greg Roman was hired specifically for the Ravens to run it into the ground. That's why Collins is worth rostering in deep leagues even if I don't see a lot of the talent assessment and lieball tests happening in this thread. 

 
Weebs210 said:
I do. I do disagree with you. Why not? Good defense and a weak passing game. I can post little faces too!  :lmao:
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So you disagree that the way the games have played out has been a factor in their high rushing ratio? And you didn't answer the second question...

Bojang0301 said:
While I don't agree with Weebs overestimating the ability of Collins, Greg Roman was hired specifically for the Ravens to run it into the ground. That's why Collins is worth rostering in deep leagues even if I don't see a lot of the talent assessment and lieball tests happening in this thread. 
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I know, which is why I said they are likely to be more middle of the pack instead of dead last like last year (although he's the senior offensive assistant and TE coach, the OC is the same pass-happy guy as last year). Again, just pointing out that the game script was incredibly favorable the 1st three weeks.

 
humpback said:
So you disagree that the way the games have played out has been a factor in their high rushing ratio? And you didn't answer the second question...

I know, which is why I said they are likely to be more middle of the pack instead of dead last like last year (although he's the senior offensive assistant and TE coach, the OC is the same pass-happy guy as last year). Again, just pointing out that the game script was incredibly favorable the 1st three weeks.
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I disagree with how you think it will go forward. I could care less what happened last year or the years before. Lol @ being down 44-0 in the first half is game script for running the ball.

 
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Weebs210 said:
I disagree with how you think it will go forward. I could care less what happened last year or the years before. Lol @ being down 44-0 in the first half is game script for running the ball.
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Apparently you could care less (it's couldn't, btw) about facts because they weren't down 44-0 in the first half, but it became a running game when they decided to give up on any chance of winning the game and put in their back-ups.

 
humpback said:
Apparently you could care less (it's couldn't, btw) about facts because they weren't down 44-0 in the first half, but it became a running game when they decided to give up on any chance of winning the game and put in their back-ups.
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Great talk my man. Hope we can do this again in the future.

 
SameSongNDance said:
You have to give the advantage to Weebs here though because Alex Collins projects to play the game of football.
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we'll chat in a few weeks.

W Josh now, and things are going as planned.

 
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