RB Alex Collins, SEA (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think you actually want to identify the guy who will score the most points in your lineup. Then you pick that guy.

Positional rarity also comes into play, as well as lineup requirements for your particular format. 

Just picking nits.  

There’s opportunity cost of picking say, a QB (who technically will “score the most points”) over a RB, who may score fewer points, but will suffer a greater dropoff in points at the position as compared to the next available QB (or even a QB selected several rounds later) 

So while technically correct that you want the players that will score the most points, the real goal is having a roster that will score the most points on a weekly basis. 

That might mean taking an Alex Collins in the 3rd over a WR of similar value, or if the roster only requires 1 starting RB & has 3 flex WR/RB slots, maybe the converse would hold true.   

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Im not waiting one extra round on a guy i really want, to score "value"

I like a team of guys I want. Not guys I setttled on

The years I’ve won in FFB I’ve landed the players I wanted.

the years I’ve lost it’s because I drafted “value” players that I settled on. 

And even in the years I’ve lost with the players I wanted, I’d rather root for guys I like watching anyway. 

I think there’s a certain point where you can get so clinical and detached that you lose the joy of watching the game.

might as well just stare at a laptop, like a 84 year old woman sitting at a slot machine for 8 hours, calloused hands from hitting the button over and over. 

 

[Doug B]

Semantics.

You're just paying more for a car than you need. You're just giving up a player in the 3rd in favor of one in the 4th, only because your too much of a chicken to take a chance.

By your logic, NFL teams should wait till the 2nd round of the draft & hope their 1st round guy falls then instead of draft the player they want..

RIght -- I don't think drafting has any real comparison to buying car. For one thing, the "currency" in drafting is way more limited -- you've got a pick here and there, then another set of picks 12-24 picks away, and so on down the line. With buying a car, the demarcations are much finer -- you can "bid" down to the dollar.

And in every league I've ever played in ... there is no market to trade picks around and help other owners find value. Everyone just stays put. So when you're picking at, say, 3.03 in a 12-man redraft ... and you look around the room and see seven or eight guys using Draft Dominator ... and DD says Alex Collins, the top-ranked available RB, has a 'value/ADP' of 3.08 ... and you don't pick next until 4.10 ... and you want to go RB-WR-RB with your first three picks ... Alex Collins and Kenyan Drake are available, but you've got (say) a reason to dislike Drake ... whaddya do? 

 

[cloppbeast]

RIght -- I don't think drafting has any real comparison to buying car. For one thing, the "currency" in drafting is way more limited -- you've got a pick here and there, then another set of picks 12-24 picks away, and so on down the line. With buying a car, the demarcations are much finer -- you can "bid" down to the dollar.

And in every league I've ever played in ... there is no market to trade picks around and help other owners find value. Everyone just stays put. So when you're picking at, say, 3.03 in a 12-man redraft ... and you look around the room and see seven or eight guys using Draft Dominator ... and DD says Alex Collins, the top-ranked available RB, has a 'value/ADP' of 3.08 ... and you don't pick next until 4.10 ... and you want to go RB-WR-RB with your first three picks ... Alex Collins and Kenyan Drake are available, but you've got (say) a reason to dislike Drake ... whaddya do? 

It's about paying too much for something. Most successful people don't do it.

In your example I have no problem going with Collins only 5 picks before his ADP if you want him. There's no chance he's there for your next pick.

 

[Amused to Death]

All this talk about draft position and value would make for a great thread of its own. I'm looking for info on Collins.  TIA.

 

[Doug B]

It's about paying too much for something. Most successful people don't do it.

In your example I have no problem going with Collins only 5 picks before his ADP if you want him. There's no chance he's there for your next pick.

Cool. No one was talking taking Collins at, say, 1.03 or something like that.

EDIT: Something else, too -- at least in a lot of long-time live redrafts with friends, you get a strong feel for what other owners are going to do. Not only do you know that a lot of those guys have generally the same rankings as you, you also know their tendencies, risk-aversity, plan-flexiblity (e.g. do they sell out to go RB-RB-WR-RB), etc. So your 'spidey-sense' that a coveted player is going to go can be trusted to make new value evaluations on the fly as the draft progresses.

Sure, ADP is a useful piece of info ... but were any of your draft buddies involved in coming up with that ADP? Probably not.

 

[Todem]

The years I’ve won in FFB I’ve landed the players I wanted.

the years I’ve lost it’s because I drafted “value” players that I settled on. 

And even in the years I’ve lost with the players I wanted, I’d rather root for guys I like watching anyway. 

I think there’s a certain point where you can get so clinical and detached that you lose the joy of watching the game.

might as well just stare at a laptop, like a 84 year old woman sitting at a slot machine for 8 hours, calloused hands from hitting the button over and over. 

Could not agree more. 

 

[lazyike]

Collins looking like the 3rd best RB on the Ravens today from his stats but I didn’t watch the game. I fell for the hype. What’s up?

 

[Steelers4Life]

Collins looking like the 3rd best RB on the Ravens today from his stats but I didn’t watch the game. I fell for the hype. What’s up?

They passed a lot early, got up big, and Collins didn't get a lot of action.  They went with mostly backups for a huge part of the second half.

 

[Chaka]

Didn't he also fumble?

 

[pinequick]

I noticed that fumbling BS raise its ugly head again.

 

[Neo]

What the heck do you do with this guy now? Is he in your lineup next week?  Totally baffled by his line today. 

 

[The Frankman]

The thing I didn't like is last year we saw Flacco basically get protected from himself. This game Baltimore was up 20+ early and they didn't entertain a single thought about slowing it down and running the ball. This offense is back to Flacco throwing 40-45 times a game. It's bad enough Collins has competition in Buck Allen, with the OC treating Flacco like's it's 2014 again I don't see many games in the future he reaches 20 touches (17 carries/3 receptions).

 

[Steelers4Life]

Didn't he also fumble?

He did.  Early 2nd quarter.  Ravens barely ran the ball in the 2nd quarter, Collins came out to start the 3rd quarter, but once they got up 33-0, he was out of the game for good.

I'm thinking the games won't normally be like that.

 

[Young 8]

They passed a lot early, got up big, and Collins didn't get a lot of action.  They went with mostly backups for a huge part of the second half.

No, he was benched after the fumble then he had like 2 touches at the beginning of the 2nd half and that was it.

 

[lazyike]

Talk of Collins being a top 10 back by some here, 1 fumble shouldn’t be affecting his playing time. Dalvin Cook fumbled today also...guarantee that won’t affect his touches.

 

[shadyridr]

It's amazing how one game completely changes your thinking on a player. I thought he was one of the safest RB2s in the draft with RB1 upside and then today happened. 

 

[Rove!]

He also had a missed handoff with Flacco....the QB typically gets the fumble on the sheet, but I am sure it did Collins no favors with the coaches

 

[Cowboysfan8]

It's amazing how one game completely changes your thinking on a player. I thought he was one of the safest RB2s in the draft with RB1 upside and then today happened. 

If you watched Balti at all last yr, you had to think nothing was going to change with their weird rb usage this year

 

[Steelers4Life]

No, he was benched after the fumble then he had like 2 touches at the beginning of the 2nd half and that was it.

No idea if he was benched after the fumble or not.  No other RBs had touched the ball yet, and they only had 2 other possessions in the 2nd quarter.  Allen had a couple carries on one of them.

I wouldn't expect there to be any change in the RB pecking order after a blow-out win like that.

 

[Todem]

Full on week one panic...so typical around here.

That game was out of hand really fast. No reason to have him playing much....back-ups got a lot of work. 

They don’t give a #### about your fantasy team.

 

[Chaka]

Talk of Collins being a top 10 back by some here, 1 fumble shouldn’t be affecting his playing time. Dalvin Cook fumbled today also...guarantee that won’t affect his touches.

I am not sure it's a fair comparison. Does Cook have a horrendous history with ball security? 

 

[shadyridr]

If you watched Balti at all last yr, you had to think nothing was going to change with their weird rb usage this year

I thought he had kind of settled in towards the end of the season

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I thought he had kind of settled in towards the end of the season

He had some nice games.

They just pulled him at weird times, handed it to the fullback (Buck) from the 1 like they did today....

It's frustrating 

 

[Avery]

Your view on what happened today with Collins depends on how you view Collins:

Option 1: A starting RB sitting down when his team is way up.

Option 2: A RB got benched for fumbling/lack of production and is now I a full blown RBBC

 

[Buffaloes]

one of these years I might learn to ignore situation and just draft talent.

 

[lazyike]

I am not sure it's a fair comparison. Does Cook have a horrendous history with ball security? 

Does anyone  rank a RB as a top 10 back that  has a “horrendous history” with ball security? I say I did a poor job drafting where I ended drafting him as an RB2 in a couple leagues. Poor research on my part.

 

[Survivor7700]

Your view on what happened today with Collins depends on how you view Collins:

Option 1: A starting RB sitting down when his team is way up.

Option 2: A RB got benched for fumbling/lack of production and is now I a full blown RBBC

Collins fumbled one time he is not losing his starting position because of one fumble. They were up by a ton and they brought in a much more mobile QB in Jackson. They never said they were going away from Buck Allen and Dixon. They have quality depth at the position. Collins is certainly not losing his starting spot and will be back starting next week.

 

[Chaka]

Collins fumbled one time he is not losing his starting position because of one fumble. They were up by a ton and they brought in a much more mobile QB in Jackson. They never said they were going away from Buck Allen and Dixon. They have quality depth at the position. Collins is certainly not losing his starting spot and will be back starting next week.

Actually it was his seventh fumble on 285 career touches in the NFL. He has a rate of about 1 fumble per every 40 touches. That's ungood. Very ungood.

He seemed to fix it last year but fumbling issues have dogged him since college and this isn't last year. He's got to go full Tiki Barber or RBBC is his best possible outcome.

 

[Survivor7700]

Actually it was his seventh fumble on 285 career touches in the NFL. He has a rate of about 1 fumble per every 40 touches. That's ungood. Very ungood.

He seemed to fix it last year but fumbling issues have dogged him since college and this isn't last year. He's got to go full Tiki Barber or RBBC is his best possible outcome.

I just don't see with what he did for the team last year at the position and with Dixon being as frail as a piece of plastic and Buck Allen being more of a 3rd down back that Harbaugh is going to put Collins in a RBBC after one fumble in game one of this season. 

 

[Chaka]

I just don't see with what he did for the team last year at the position and with Dixon being as frail as a piece of plastic and Buck Allen being more of a 3rd down back that Harbaugh is going to put Collins in a RBBC after one fumble in game one of this season. 

He probably won't but you are also not making a reasonable assessment of Dixon or Allen. Dixon is healthy now and every coach loves a reliable, if unspectacular vet who doesn't turn the ball over. So it is Collins job for now but I would not bet the house that he has a hammerlock on it 

 

[Survivor7700]

He probably won't but you are also not making a reasonable assessment of Dixon or Allen. Dixon is healthy now and every coach loves a reliable, if unspectacular vet who doesn't turn the ball over. So it is Collins job for now but I would not bet the house that he has a hammerlock on it 

I am just going on Dixon's track record of getting injured in the past. All I am saying is Collins lifted the running game from out of no where last year when Dixon was injured and no one else could take hold of the position. One fumble in the first game isn't going to threaten his starting position at all. I all glad that have a healthy Dixon and a 3rd down back like Allen, but the best RB is definitely Collins of the trio. He fumbled once and was held out because they were up by a ton of points.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Your view on what happened today with Collins depends on how you view Collins:

Option 1: A starting RB sitting down when his team is way up.

Option 2: A RB got benched for fumbling/lack of production and is now I a full blown RBBC

It was 1. Starters got pulled blowing out the worst team in the league and they play Thurs. 

 

[Survivor7700]

It was 1. Starters got pulled blowing out the worst team in the league and they play Thurs. 

Exactly, and a smart move in that. Resting the majority of the starters for the short week against the Bengals next week.

 

[Chaka]

I am just going on Dixon's track record of getting injured in the past. All I am saying is Collins lifted the running game from out of no where last year when Dixon was injured and no one else could take hold of the position. One fumble in the first game isn't going to threaten his starting position at all. I all glad that have a healthy Dixon and a 3rd down back like Allen, but the best RB is definitely Collins of the trio. 

And I didn't disagree with Collins spot on the depth chart. But he faded over the second half last year, when his volume went up and the coaches are well aware of his fumbling history which doesn't reset just because it's 2018. Dixon is healthy, Allen is reliable and both can play every down.

Collins should be fine but it would be smart to have a contingency plan.

 

[Steeler]

Full on week one panic...so typical around here.

That game was out of hand really fast. No reason to have him playing much....back-ups got a lot of work. 

They don’t give a #### about your fantasy team.

I would agree with you 100% if it wasn't for the fumble - now I agree with you ~95% and the fumble does concern me a bit.  I guess we'll find out Thursday when they play the Bengals.

 

[Survivor7700]

And I didn't disagree with Collins spot on the depth chart. But he faded over the second half last year, when his volume went up and the coaches are well aware of his fumbling history which doesn't reset just because it's 2018. Dixon is healthy, Allen is reliable and both can play every down.

Collins should be fine but it would be smart to have a contingency plan.

I agree, that they have a plan and they are lucky because they have 3 quality guys. 

 

[Cobbler1]

You knew when you drafted that Collins was at risk of having his role reduced if he fumbled a few times. We’re still a long way away from that being the case. He was hit behind the line repeatedly as the Bills stacked the box and the conditions were very wet. He’s not going to lose his job over that. There was also a botched exchange between him and Flacco. A few other notes that people may care about in regards to Collins, my apologies if they have been covered:

-At least for this game, Dixon wasn’t a factor with the starters. He saw all 13 of his touches and I believe all his snaps after it was 40-0 and Flacco was pulled. Collins never saw the field again after that either while Buck mixed in a little. 

-Collins was on pace for his usual usage outside of the snaps he lost because of the fumble and then obviously the blowout. He was benched for 2 drives and then a 3rd drive was a 2 minute drill when Buck would be in anyways. Didn’t see a touch after the fumble the last 12 minutes of the half. He was right back out to start the 3rd. He saw 6 carries the first 18 minutes of game action. And he had 2 carries taken away by penalty and another lost on a botched exchange with Flacco. He then saw 2 more touches on the first 5 snaps of the second half. At this point it was 40-0 and he and a lot of other starters were rested. 8 touches (11 attempted) in what amounted to about 23 minutes of game time for him. This pace easily gets him into the 18-20 touch range he had the second half of the year last year. 

-Collins was in for almost all the touches inside the 10. He had his td run and I recall was in on another opportunity inside the 10, he was in on first and goal from the 3 on a separate drive, and he was in on Buck’s td run. They love to line Buck up as a FB and either give it to him on a dive or fake the dive and pitch it to Collins for an outside run. There was no way they were going to pitch it in the conditions yesterday so it was an obvious opportunity for Buck as soon as they lined up. 

-Flacco continued to look excellent, carrying over from the preseason. If this continues teams will have to lighten up the box some.

-The Bills are terrible

 

[Smack Tripper]

FBG way too bullish on this guy, against any conventional wisdom.  Will think twice about paying for this advice.  From Bellcow to time share in two drives.

 

[Synthesizer]

Team was up 26-0 at halftime, and spread the wealth in the 2nd half.  Allen and Dixon dominated the touches in the 2nd half.  That alone doesn't worry me much..... except the fumble by Collins.  Unsure what that means for him going forward.  We'll know more Thursday night.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Team was up 26-0 at halftime, and spread the wealth in the 2nd half.  Allen and Dixon dominated the touches in the 2nd half.  That alone doesn't worry me much..... except the fumble by Collins.  Unsure what that means for him going forward.  We'll know more Thursday night.

its not like I can play him to find out.  Thankfully he's just a flex for me.

 

[Synthesizer]

FBG way too bullish on this guy, against any conventional wisdom.  Will think twice about paying for this advice.  From Bellcow to time share in two drives.

Last year Collins rushed for 973 yards and 6 TDs.  For the upcoming year FBG projected him to have..... 978 yards and 8 TDs.  Drop that subscription!

 

[TheDirtyWord]

My read: Collins is still the guy.

Fumble was bad, but it happens - especially in those conditions.  And given that BAL has a Thursday night game against a divisional rival, made sense to not spend wear and tear on their primary RB so he could feel spry in a meaningful game.

 

[Rove!]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one game..,the botched exchange and then the fumble are worrisome, and hopefully he can work on ball security....

 

[Slapdash]

My read: Collins is still the guy.

Fumble was bad, but it happens - especially in those conditions.  And given that BAL has a Thursday night game against a divisional rival, made sense to not spend wear and tear on their primary RB so he could feel spry in a meaningful game.

A good point here

 

[kyoun1e]

Not time to panic.

Dixon got garbage time work. Think there was a little punishment in there that Harbaugh could afford to give Collins in a blowout.

 

[sportsphysio]

My read: Collins is still the guy.

Fumble was bad, but it happens - especially in those conditions.  And given that BAL has a Thursday night game against a divisional rival, made sense to not spend wear and tear on their primary RB so he could feel spry in a meaningful game.

Good pick up regarding the Thursday night game, may have had a very big part in the decision.

 

[shadrap]

Dixon got hurt late.  Looked bad to me.  Knee?  Ham?

 

[iamkoza]

My read: Collins is still the guy.

Fumble was bad, but it happens - especially in those conditions.  And given that BAL has a Thursday night game against a divisional rival, made sense to not spend wear and tear on their primary RB so he could feel spry in a meaningful game.

fumbles seem to happen to collins a lot.... the main reason he never got on the field before last year right?

 

[Steeler]

fumbles seem to happen to collins a lot.... the main reason he never got on the field before last year right?

The fumble history and the fumble yesterday (in the rain storm) are concerning for sure - but he largely corrected the problem last year down the stretch.