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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

Hey, how do you know I'm not Odell Beckham Jr.??????   Obviously we are all JAGs on this site when compared to any NFL Players.  It's all relative though.  There is a considerable difference in talent between Gurley and Collins though.  Now, put Todd Gurley into a career in technology and he would most likely be considered JAG compared to Bill Gates.  All relative.

I did laugh at your post though.  No one has ever called me JAG and it doesn't feel good.  I apologize Alex Collins.  :hifive:
:lmao:

 
He did okay but it is the number of snaps that he gets vs Allen that is concerning.    Also the scripts from Week 1 vs Week 2 were so different but yet played out the same way for Collins is a major concern to me.   If Allen is the change-of-pace guy AND short yardage back then I'm not sure exactly what game scenario is favorable to Collins.
Who says Allen is the short yardage back? Why cant they both get short yardage touches? They did last night and in week 1

 
He did okay but it is the number of snaps that he gets vs Allen that is concerning.    Also the scripts from Week 1 vs Week 2 were so different but yet played out the same way for Collins is a major concern to me.   If Allen is the change-of-pace guy AND short yardage back then I'm not sure exactly what game scenario is favorable to Collins.
True. Could be Abdullah 2.0 which would be terrible. 

So far I'm glad I sold in dynasty and somewhat regretting keeping him in my keeper league (he was a 12th round pick, how couldn't I?). Currently trying to shop him

 
It is the single biggest indicator that the coaching staff still doesn't trust Collins's ball security.

People can point to whatever he did over eight games last year but it is obvious the coaching staff, who know his ability far better than any of us (stop, just stop. They do you don't--not referring to you NYRAGE) and they clearly, with absolute certainty don't trust him in those situations.

Great talent as a runner but people need to accept what he is, a flawed talent who will produce as a low end #2 RB in magic football. Be happy with that, it's a pretty remarkable story with a positive outcome (I refuse to say "happy ending" in front of this crowd...damn.)
Goal-line: Makes sense to me. That must be it.

I avoided Collins in all but one league, but picked up Buck Allen in the last round or as a free agent in at least half of my leagues. Way better value imo. This offense has enough volume to make both Collins and Allen at least flex plays, especially with Dixon out now (both were at least flex plays until Woodhead came back and hurt Allen towards the end of last season).

 
Things I find confusing here.

1) I get game script...Game 1, blowout, bad weather.  Let a guy like Dixon soak up garbage time carries.  Game 2, down 21 points early - tough to establish a physical rushing attack.  However...thru 2 games Collins 4 receptions 61 yards, Allen 10 receptions 51 yards.  I'm sure Allen runs a cleaner, more diverse route tree, but this feels like when the Bucs tried to make Charles Sims into something.  Like, isn't the opposing defense glad when the Ravens get Allen and his 6.4 career YPR the ball?

2) Collins was breaking tackles left and right.  Just when you get back into the game...that's when you go away from him?  90 YFS in the first 3 quarters?  Bupkus afterward?

3) Flacco has 89 pass attempts thru two games.  One of those games was in a blowout they won in terrible conditions.  This is the Ravens plan?  To ride the inaccurate arm of their lame-duck QB?

Lot of head tilting from me on this one.

 
I did not watch the week one game, but watched all of the game last night.

The biggest difference between Collins and Allen is that Baltimore trusts Allen more in obvious passing situations. He has been targeted 13 times in two games while Collins has only 5. 

Collins is by far the better runner and has more escapability in the open field. Despite having only 4 catches to Allen’s 10, Collins has more receiving yards.

Collins’ yard per carry on the season is only 3.0 with Allen 2.5. Collins showed nice burst and broke tackles last night, but only has 16 rushes in two games. He just needs more volume to be exactly what he was a season ago.

 
Not gonna lie, this is exactly what happened last year. Not sure why anyone is surprised. I, myself, had hoped he would be used more but at the end of the day but it is what it is and it’s not changing. It’s unfortunate, because I think he could be a fairly prolific fantasy producer if he got 20 touches a game but that’s just never going to happen with Harbaugh because....your guess is as good as mine. Was actually trying to get him in a couple leagues and I guess it’s luck that I happened to miss. 

 
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Wow... were people expecting 20 fantasy points a week? 

What I see is a continuation of last year. His YPC is low, volume is low- but more do to game script (first week blow out, last night was a lot of passing to catch up). in ppr he put in a decent game, but I'm surprised at what it seems people were expecting from him. 
10-15 points a week is my expectation in PPR. Sometimes more, sometimes less. But he is their #1 back. It is week 2. And thus far he has delivered on limited touches due to:

Blow out in week 1.

Getting behind too much in week 2.

Production has been a product of the rhythm of the games.

 
He is going to have some huge games (fairly large ones at the very least) that produce at RB1 levels. He has the ability to, maybe, perhaps, possibly finish as the overall RB1 in any given week. 

But he's not in the Gurley, Bell, Zeke level and probably isn't in the Hunt, Cook etc level either.

The Ravens think Buck Allen can do certain things better, and they are almost certainly correct.

 
What drives me the most crazy is Balt's entire offensive approach. 

There's just no rhythm to the offense. Never get a sense they're in a groove of any kind. Whole offense lacks an identity.

Feel like all they want to do is try and get balls to three different TEs. Meanwhile, their lead back consistently gets less than 10 carries. 

As an owner of Collins, I'm treating him as a #3RB or a flex play. That's what I drafted him for at the end of round 4. I think when the matchup is right, he can be an RB2. Unfortunately, I don't  see that next week vs. Denver.

 
Wow... were people expecting 20 fantasy points a week? 

What I see is a continuation of last year. His YPC is low, volume is low- but more do to game script (first week blow out, last night was a lot of passing to catch up). in ppr he put in a decent game, but I'm surprised at what it seems people were expecting from him. 
Last year he averaged 4.6 yards per carry which is not low.

His touches increased from an average of 10.5 per game over the first eight games to 19.125 per game over the final eight games.

His TDs increased from 0 over the first eight games to 6 over the final eight games.

His lost fumbles went from 2 over the first eight games to 0 over the final eight games.

He came in as the feature back and is the feature back and Buck Allen is the 3rd down receiving back.

Game scripts have impacted his touches so-far this year with a blowout win and a game where they got down quickly and went with the receiving back earlier and more often than expected last night.

He is going to get his, he's going to have big games and score but obviously game scripts effect his touches.

 
Last year he averaged 4.6 yards per carry which is not low.

His touches increased from an average of 10.5 per game over the first eight games to 19.125 per game over the final eight games.

His TDs increased from 0 over the first eight games to 6 over the final eight games.

His lost fumbles went from 2 over the first eight games to 0 over the final eight games.

He came in as the feature back and is the feature back and Buck Allen is the 3rd down receiving back.

Game scripts have impacted his touches so-far this year with a blowout win and a game where they got down quickly and went with the receiving back earlier and more often than expected last night.

He is going to get his, he's going to have big games and score but obviously game scripts effect his touches.
Go back and look at his last 10 games for YPC.  His YPC was falling significantly over the course of the season in 2017

ETA: Okay I have time... starting since Week 7 2017:

Week 9: 13 carries, 3.3 avg
Week 11: 20 carries, 2.5 avg
Week 12: 16 carries, 3.8 avg 
Week 13: 15 carries, 5.0 avg
Week 14: 18 carries, 6.7 avg
Week 15: 12 carries, 1.6 avg
Week 16: 18 carries, 2.8 avg
Week 17: 20 carries, 3.9 avg
Week 1: 7 carries, 1.9 avg
Week 2: 9 carries 3.9 avg

Since Week 8 of 2017 Alex Collins has gotten 148 carries for 543 yards, an average YPC of 3.67 

One could argue he hasn't gotten the volume this year to turn his average around, and for that I would agree, but it's concerning to see a lot of sub 4.0 ypc on that list there, even with heavy volume. 

Not ready to completely bail on this guy yet, but I'm not overly impressed so far.  

 
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Not gonna lie, this is exactly what happened last year. Not sure why anyone is surprised. I, myself, had hoped he would be used more but at the end of the day but it is what it is and it’s not changing. It’s unfortunate, because I think he could be a fairly prolific fantasy producer if he got 20 touches a game but that’s just never going to happen with Harbaugh because....your guess is as good as mine. Was actually trying to get him in a couple leagues and I guess it’s luck that I happened to miss. 
He averaged 20 touches per game the last half of last year. That’s what you’re looking for this year and 2 fluky game scripts haven’t changed that in my mind. Unless you think the Ravens are going to alternate between being up 40 points in the early third and being down 2+ scores most of the game then there’s really no reason to think Collins won’t get to the 18-20 touch range. 

The idiotic coaching is concerning to me as a fan and someone with a couple shares of Collins. Coming out 5 wide with Flacco slinging the ball all over is just stupid. They blew the chance to establish the running game. Collins had 22 yards his first 3 carries and they never gave that a chance to continue working.

There also should be a concerted effort to get Collins involved on swing passes and designed screens. He needs the ball in his hands as he is by far the most dangerous offensive weapon. I completely understand Buck’s usage as the preferred hurry up option as he’s a better pass blocker and can run some routes that Collins can’t but there can still be heavy passing work for Collins on early downs. Collins always getting pulled in the red zone is a false narrative. He’s already had 3 carries inside the 10 and I believe 2 red zone targets as well and he’s been on the field for a handful of other red zone plays and that’s while playing less than half the game week 1 and an unfavorable game flow week 2. Buck will get used too but it isn’t all Buck down there. 

 
Go back and look at his last 8 games for YPC. I don't feel like researching it and posting it, because it's been posted in here probably a dozen times somewhere in this thread. His YPC was falling significantly over the course of the season in 2017
It did go down but they started using him in goal and short yardage situations. 

How RBs are used in that system had a direct effect on YPC.

They took Buck Allen off the goal line and short yardage role and his average per carry shot up from 3.51 yards per carry when he was used as the goal line and short yardage RB up to 5.53 yards per carry after Collins took over the goal line and short yardage role.

So yes, his average per carry dropped when he they began using him in short yardage and goal line situations, same with Buck Allen.

 
It did go down but they started using him in goal and short yardage situations. 

How RBs are used in that system had a direct effect on YPC.

They took Buck Allen off the goal line and short yardage role and his average per carry shot up from 3.51 yards per carry when he was used as the goal line and short yardage RB up to 5.53 yards per carry after Collins took over the goal line and short yardage role.

So yes, his average per carry dropped when he they began using him in short yardage and goal line situations, same with Buck Allen.
How many goal line carries did Alex Collins get in 2017? Enough to drop his YPC from in the 5-6 range to in the 3.8 range? Come on... that's such a weak argument. 

 
It did go down but they started using him in goal and short yardage situations. 

How RBs are used in that system had a direct effect on YPC.

They took Buck Allen off the goal line and short yardage role and his average per carry shot up from 3.51 yards per carry when he was used as the goal line and short yardage RB up to 5.53 yards per carry after Collins took over the goal line and short yardage role.

So yes, his average per carry dropped when he they began using him in short yardage and goal line situations, same with Buck Allen.
How many goal line carries did Alex Collins get in 2017? Enough to drop his YPC from in the 5-6 range to in the 3.8 range? Come on... that's such a weak argument. 
In 2017 Alex Collins only received 3 rushes inside the 5 yard line.
Try again

 
And he had 12 inside the 10 and 27 in the red zone.  He being fed when the defense had short fields to cover and were closer to the LOS or stacking the box.  

When Buck was the 'feature' back and was being used in those situations his YPC was low and when Collins took over as the feature back and he was used in different situation it shot up.

How those two backs in that system were used had a direct effect on their YPC but you can disagree and explain why Buck Allen's YPC was so low when he was the feature RB.

 
Speaking of red zone carries, Collins has 3 carries inside the 10 already in 2 games which would extrapolate to 24 over a whole season good for 5th in the league last year. And really it’s 3 in 1.5 games which would be 32 over 16 games, tied with Gurley for tops in the league. OBVIOUSLY a miniscule sample but that’s the same sample half the people in here are panicking over so let’s roll with it.

 
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Two flukey game scripts don’t cause me concern yet. 

Ravens get some key players back on defense which will help prevent early blowouts like TNF, and they don’t face the Bills every week, which helps in the other direction. 

Collins looked damn good just about every time he touched the ball. He moved the pile & turned 0 yard gains or even 1-2 yard losses into 3-5 yard gains. 

He also looked fluid as a receiver - and appears to have improved in that regard, to my eyes at least (last year he looked kinda clunky catching the ball).

And his vision is spectacular - combined with impressively quick moves for a big man, that catch where 2 defenders had him dead to rights and he juked both out of their shoes for a 22 yard gain was beyond impressive.

and most importantly, he did not fumble.

Harbaugh & co sometimes call a wonky playbook, but they’re going to go back and watch this game film. 

I would be a little shocked if Colllons touches don’t steadily increase - he was far and away the more beastly running back, and far more capable of the big play any time he touches the ball.

on his lone GL carry that line didn’t block for ####. Hard to put that one on Collins. 

I take a lot of positives from this game - he scored me 12 points, which is fine for a RB2. And he looked great doing it, despite the limited touches. After the week 1 fumble he’s got some trust gaining to get back, and IMO this game did a lot for that. He held onto the ball despite some huge hits, sometimes by multiple defenders. 

Better days ahead, Collins owners. 

 
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Are we really rehashing the incredibly stupid ypc argument from earlier in this thread?

Let's take an already small sample size and arbitrarily make it smaller - sounds rational.

 
I drafted him as my RB3 in the late 4th round, and am happy to have him as my weekly flex.  He is sure to be a more consistent scorer than a WR3 on your roster, unless you drafted WR heavy.   

 
Wow... were people expecting 20 fantasy points a week? 

What I see is a continuation of last year. His YPC is low, volume is low- but more do to game script (first week blow out, last night was a lot of passing to catch up). in ppr he put in a decent game, but I'm surprised at what it seems people were expecting from him. 
Yeah.  Blue sky analysis here with all due respect.  Buck was the guy when were down 10 with a bunch to go. In a run/pass game script.  Collins was barely on the field in the second half.  

So, if they are nursing a lead then yeah, sure, Collins may be the guy.  Otherwise, this guy isn’t a piece of a championship puzzle.  Even at flex.  

 
I bought low on him tonight in my dynasty league.  Traded Barber/Watkins, who has felt unplayable since the beginning of time.  I think Collins will see more volume as the season goes on, and he looks really good when he gets the touches. 

 
10-15 points a week is my expectation in PPR. Sometimes more, sometimes less. But he is their #1 back. It is week 2. And thus far he has delivered on limited touches due to:

Blow out in week 1.

Getting behind too much in week 2.

Production has been a product of the rhythm of the games.
I’m going to guess you didn’t watch all the snaps in that game.  

 
I bought low on him tonight in my dynasty league.  Traded Barber/Watkins, who has felt unplayable since the beginning of time.  I think Collins will see more volume as the season goes on, and he looks really good when he gets the touches. 
Like that deal.  The guys you traded have no real value.  Collins could be something.  

 
Like that deal.  The guys you traded have no real value.  Collins could be something.  
Maybe but the first thing a player needs is opportunities and Barber looks like he will be getting opportunities. Tough to tell because of the wonky games but I am less confident about Collins getting consistent opportunities.

 
Maybe but the first thing a player needs is opportunities and Barber looks like he will be getting opportunities. Tough to tell because of the wonky games but I am less confident about Collins getting consistent opportunities.
Agree. Both suck.  If you have designs on winning your league.  

 
That is the worst coaching performance I have seen in the NFL in years, if ever. Here you have a running back who was breaking tackles and taking small dump passes 25 yards up the field only to be taken out of the game right after. His replacement can't hold his jock and falls to the ground each and every time he is hit.

At one point in the game the momentum was shifting and Collins was building steam......and each time he was starting to go off, they took him out, and at times left him on the bench for series at a time. It makes ZERO sense. I watched the entire game and rewatched certain series afterwards to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Unbelievable.....Harbaugh is out of his mind and like his brother I am starting to think they are both severely over-rated.

 
I would be 100% on-board with targeting Collins as a buy low right now.

What stops me is what's called out below, and what I called out in owning Collins last year -- his usage can be puzzling and non-intuitive,losign touches in down/distance situations where his skill set fits the most, clearly being effective but not being leveraged more, variable short-yardage issues, etc.

He's a definite hold, but despite the weird game scripts, the persistent usage makes me downgrade his outlook a little going forward.

 
That is the worst coaching performance I have seen in the NFL in years, if ever. Here you have a running back who was breaking tackles and taking small dump passes 25 yards up the field only to be taken out of the game right after. His replacement can't hold his jock and falls to the ground each and every time he is hit.

At one point in the game the momentum was shifting and Collins was building steam......and each time he was starting to go off, they took him out, and at times left him on the bench for series at a time. It makes ZERO sense. I watched the entire game and rewatched certain series afterwards to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Unbelievable.....Harbaugh is out of his mind and like his brother I am starting to think they are both severely over-rated.
There is zero doubt in my mind that Harbaugh is gone with Flacco next year. The team had a pretty big overhaul in talent from last year to this year, all that's missing is overhauling the coaching approach to one that, well, works. 

 
That is the worst coaching performance I have seen in the NFL in years, if ever. Here you have a running back who was breaking tackles and taking small dump passes 25 yards up the field only to be taken out of the game right after. His replacement can't hold his jock and falls to the ground each and every time he is hit.

At one point in the game the momentum was shifting and Collins was building steam......and each time he was starting to go off, they took him out, and at times left him on the bench for series at a time. It makes ZERO sense. I watched the entire game and rewatched certain series afterwards to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Unbelievable.....Harbaugh is out of his mind and like his brother I am starting to think they are both severely over-rated.
I don’t disagree with this. In fact, after Collins busted off that huge gainer for ~20 yards at the start of the third, I thought he pulled himself out cuz of the hit when he went OB.  

but then buck played the rest of the game.  I don’t get it. But it is what it is.  

Maybe the media asks him about the delta in production this week?  I mean, he’s a vet coach in the NFL.  I have to assume he knows more than us.  

My eyes must be off...

 
Collins also has a little bit of a problem with fumbling. That's pretty much the reason why they don't trust him near the goal line, and in the red zone in general. And, we don't even know what's going on in practice... he could be fumbling like mad on the practice field. His physical talent (which is always on display) might be the only thing keeping him in the league at this point.

 
Collins also has a little bit of a problem with fumbling. That's pretty much the reason why they don't trust him near the goal line, and in the red zone in general. And, we don't even know what's going on in practice... he could be fumbling like mad on the practice field. His physical talent (which is always on display) might be the only thing keeping him in the league at this point.
Sorry I don’t have the numbers handy but they use him plenty in the RZ but it is true he splits carries at the GL. He got a GL carry last night actually just didn’t convert. Also his TD last week was from 7 or 8 yards out. 

 
That is the worst coaching performance I have seen in the NFL in years, if ever. Here you have a running back who was breaking tackles and taking small dump passes 25 yards up the field only to be taken out of the game right after. His replacement can't hold his jock and falls to the ground each and every time he is hit.

At one point in the game the momentum was shifting and Collins was building steam......and each time he was starting to go off, they took him out, and at times left him on the bench for series at a time. It makes ZERO sense. I watched the entire game and rewatched certain series afterwards to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Unbelievable.....Harbaugh is out of his mind and like his brother I am starting to think they are both severely over-rated.
If the Ravens wanted to move the back to wr depending on what the defense show, this makes sense. Allen can play wr a little..... and rb a little.

 
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I’m going to guess you didn’t watch all the snaps in that game.  
All I saw was a RB who produces when handed the ball. Collins is doing exactly what he did last year.

And to think his volume won't increase after these first two games given the rhythm and flow of the games is simply silly.

He is a solid RB2 this season. I expect a few huge weeks but mostly 10-12 points easy in PPR.

 
Shocking  that a 5th round talent like Alex Collins isn’t living up to the hype. He was cut from the Seattle team that was wide open at rb but somehow he’s a pretty good rb. He sucks and I fully expect him to be cut next year and play the role of a journeyman. The Ravens will draft a legit rb next year.

 
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Collins fumbled one time he is not losing his starting position because of one fumble. They were up by a ton and they brought in a much more mobile QB in Jackson. They never said they were going away from Buck Allen and Dixon. They have quality depth at the position. Collins is certainly not losing his starting spot and will be back starting next week.
He has 7 fumbles in under 300 touches.  He is a two-down back between the twenties and will be pulled when they try and run out the clock.

 
7 & 9 carries is ridiculous. It's on me for buying in again but the truth is I believe in the guy's talent. The system just stinks for a FF RB. Though obviously it could improve like it did last year but these are the kind of coach games that FF owners loathe. 

 
IMO, Collins is a great flex, and a decent RB2.  He will be in my weekly lineup, and I will have to suffer through games where BAL is either blowing their opponent out, or BAL is getting blown out.  In close games, he will get more touches.  Hang in there, Collins owners.  His trade value right now is much lower than his actual value.

 
IMO, Collins is a great flex, and a decent RB2.  He will be in my weekly lineup, and I will have to suffer through games where BAL is either blowing their opponent out, or BAL is getting blown out.  In close games, he will get more touches.  Hang in there, Collins owners.  His trade value right now is much lower than his actual value.
Obviously it's way to early in the season to panic, and I definitely would tell people not to sell because his value can't get much lower at this point.  However in my league he is RB31 right now, which makes him an average flex and a mid/low RB3.

Anyone starting him with confidence against Denver or is more because you invested the draft capital in him and figure you should start him?

 
I’m actually relatively optimistic about his chances this week. Denver doesn’t seem to be an offence that will open up a big gap on the Ravens. I could see it being a tight game with Collins getting his largest workload of the season thus far 

 
You mean when he was a high end rb2 I believe down the stretch?
I meant where they say "We gotta get him the ball!" then it happens for one game and they forget about him. Until the team realizes Flacco shouldn't be passing 40+ times a game or that Javorius Allen isn't the teams best back, the same pattern will continue. Collins will have to produce on the 11-14 carries a game he gets, and if he's lucky 2-3 receptions. Not going to talk about the goal line situation...

 
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Obviously it's way to early in the season to panic, and I definitely would tell people not to sell because his value can't get much lower at this point.  However in my league he is RB31 right now, which makes him an average flex and a mid/low RB3.

Anyone starting him with confidence against Denver or is more because you invested the draft capital in him and figure you should start him?
Certainly not starting him with confidence vs DEN, but he is my flex, with my 2 starters being DJ and Conner.  Yes, it's annoying when he gets pulled for Allen, but he is still their lead back, and Dixon is out too.  The first game was a blowout, so I will give him a mulligan.  The second he got 12 touches for 90 yards, and we FF'ers consider that a bad game for him, right?  In PPR, getting 12.5 flex pts isn't horrible, and we all know he was underutilized.  Don't sell low at this point. 

 
he's toast.put a fork in him.what a waste of a roster spot. I thought he'd be pretty decent this season,but Harbaugh just shows how bad of a HC he really is ( I mean, he did hire Morhinwheg, right?)

 

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