@SleeperNFL
Alvin Kamara will get the bulk of the work in the run game, per #Saints HC Kellen Moore.
(via @ErinESummers)
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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
So is this guy almost done or what? People are hyping Miller up so much, what am I missing?
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know for sure and I also told you Hunter Henry probably wasn't a wise pick because of 2TE sets, target competition and injury history.
There's analysis in the Kendre thread. I don't feel like typing it again. Peace.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Alvin "injured" in practice. Any chance it's simply holding him out due to a trade coming soon?
Let’s not jump the gun….but I hope you are correct
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Where's the worst spot for Kamara to land in a trade? Bracing myself for when he gets shipped to purgatory.
I mean he's not doing much on the Saints, hopefully if a team is willing to trade for him they plan to use him
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Philly… confusing Barkley and Kamara owners alike.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
You forgot about the guy you traded to me for Mahomes....smh
The Kerminator
Footballguy
J-E-T-S
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
The Raider fan in me would hate to see him land in the AFCW, but as a fantasy owner I think he would be incredible with the Chargers or Chiefs.
Contract is not much of an issue if someone wants him. The biggest thing to deal with his his $3m guarantee next season.
The main issue is so far he does not want to be traded and secondary issue is we don't know how much interest there is in him. I mean most teams would want him, but not sure how many are willing to give up much of tangible value for him, especially if they have to on the hook for his $3m guarantee.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anywhere they don’t throw the ball six times a game to their back.
That’s really the extent of it. Not the greatest pure rusher, but still top fifteen in explosive run rate. That is higher than Kendre Miller. I did say Kendre was better in most categories, but not by ridiculous amounts, and Kamara looks very good compared to other 28+ years-of-age backs. Only slowed about a half-step or one full in open space. Still effective.
Cap hit cannot be more than 3 million dollars this year to the acquiring team. If the Saints trade him today, the club that acquires him is only on the hook for both cash paid and cap liability for Week 6 - Week 18 of his 2025 contract, which is ~$2M. That should be doable for nearly every team. The problem is next year’s $11.5M base salary, which is injury-guaranteed up to $3,000,000. I cannot say with complete certainty, but it is unlikely any team is either willing to pay him that amount or let that amount count against their cap for the year. And he is going to want it. So there’s the rub right there.
I’m almost positive it’s only an injury guarantee. I did the cap numbers. It’s a little different than that. That injury guarantee for 2026 only matters if he gets hurt in 2025 with the acquiring club and can’t pass his March 2026 physical for that upcoming year. That kind of guarantee travels with the player to the acquiring club. If he were to leave NO for the Chiefs, and then get hurt with the Chiefs in 2025 so that he couldn’t play in 2026, then it is considered to have vested, and the Chiefs pay him $3M and it counts as $3M against their cap liabilities for 2026.
That shouldn’t be any issue either. I can break down all the numbers regarding the cap if anybody wants. The are two main issues: The Saints don’t save an absolute ton by moving him and the acquiring club is staring at an $11.5M salary for an RB who is 30+ in 2026. Teams don’t value the position anywhere near there, but that doesn’t preclude a deal for certain.
He doesn’t have a no-trade clause and is not a 10/5 guy (ten years in the league, five consecutive with current team), so NO can technically trade him even if he doesn’t want to go. I would be floored if they did that, so the sticking point is actually the $11.5M salary for next year. Other teams can extend, restructure, and other things like that and it looks doable from that perspective. The only thing to think about is two of the teams we are mentioning are already notoriously unwilling to spend draft capital, allocate cap space, or lavish cash on any running back. The Cardinals and Chargers are wiling to do both, so that’s something to think about.
But I think this is on the Saints and Kamara.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Sux the way he went down. Thought he was looking the part before he did.
Most teams would want him if he were cheap/free. Which teams might want him if he's neither?
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep, pretty much. I think the Chargers, Cardinals, and Chiefs will want him in about two weeks, in that descending order, where the Chargers want him the most. But those are three flinty franchises and the third seems to get a special thrill watching Patrick Mahomes getting destroyed or undergoing a trial by fire, so who knows which football players or how much draft capital any of them will part with and how willing they are to court Kamara .
Tau837
Footballguy
Per Spotrac, $3M in 2026 salary became fully guaranteed (not just for injury) on 3/14/2025.
Thanks, I knew that but just saw Rocks reply and appreciate you being able to clarify it.
If he did get traded and everything went great they'd have the option of retaining him for $11.5m or doing an extension to spread out the cap hit. They would only be staring at $3M by acquiring him and that's if they did not want to keep him and could not find another team to that wanted him via trade.
On that note the sticking point is not the $11.5 m salary. It's most likely a non-factor to be honest. What's most likely a factor is the $3m they'd owe him. Which is not really a ton, but does not help the Saints compensation either.
Also does not help drive Kamara's interest in being traded. Due to cap reasons the best chance he has to see that $11.5m in 2026 is if the Saints keep him.
He of course does not technically have to agree to a trade. I've just long been of the notion his status with the orginazation, combined with what is most likely not much of a return, are not reasons to alienate him. Could happen, wish it would happen, just seems doubtful to me.
rockaction
Footballguy
Ah, I’m using both sites and Over The Cap does not have that. That’s why I’m using $2.99M insted of $2.67M. If that is the case, thank you. Let’s assume it is moving forward. I missed that and the guarantee for injury becomes a guarantee of $3M in salary for 2026.
Nope, I totally understand that. Let’s call the acquiring team "Team A.” The Saints trade Kendre to them tomorrow, 10/9/25. So you have a post-June 1st trade. Team A, given the fully guaranteed salary for ’25 ($2.99M fully guaranteed) and $3M guarantee vested on 3/14/25 for his ’26 salary is actually staring at $5M en toto, with a ~$2M cap hit in ’25 (the pro-rated amount of his ’25 salary), and then a $3M cap hit in ’26 because they assume that guarantee from the Saints if there are no explicit terms to the contrary. So in terms of the guaranteed parts of his base salary for both ’25 and ’26 they’re on the hook for $5M or around there.
Now, I get what you’re saying about not having to pay him or have cap liabilities of what is actually $8.5M (they HAVE to pay him $3M, and since the total salary is $11.5M, it’s an extra $8.5M). Now they do have the option of paying him nothing and cutting him either pre- or post-June 1st and that’s that. They owe him $3M in cash and take a cap hit of $3M for 2026.
But he and his agent know this. Like cold. He’s going to want that money and he’s going to seek to get that money either through payment in ’26, restructuring by converting that base salary into a signing bonus, whatever. I think you can bet pretty safely on that. And it’s going to have to be worked out because nobody wants a disgruntled guy coming. And he doesn’t have to go at all. He can do everything from insisting on renegotiating and then doing everything from milking an injury up to retiring. Believe me he knows about the $8.5M that somebody, somewhere promised to pay him 2026.
I said the something similar earlier today right here. But it’s not $11.5M, it’s $8.5M (again thanks to Tau for catching that clause). I agree with you to a degree . . .
I agree with this. Almost fully. The issue is that the Saints save a decent amount if they trade Kendre. If they keep him and release him, it’s ugly for their bottom line, and this is where the full picture helps. They can go six ways with this. They can hold him through this year (2025) and cut him either pre-June 1st or post-June 1st of 2026. They can hold him through 2026 and then he becomes a UFA after the year. They can trade him this season before the deadline, which would make him a post-June 1st trade. They can trade him in the offseason before June 1st, or they can trade after June 1st of 2026 for either the whole or part of that year.
I went over the comparison between holding him the rest of this year and trading him this year before the deadline. Here is the discussion:
So what would the savings be if the Saints traded him this year before the deadline vs. retaining him?
Well, the Saints guaranteed Kamara’s salary in 2025 for the amount of $2.99M. We add all of it (it is not pro-rated) to the current cap expenditures number, and we also add the $7M in signing bonuses and restructures due this year (that is the $3.1M pro-rated signing bonus paid in 2025 added to the $3.9M that was the restructure amount paid in 2025). That $10M is your cap obligation for 2025. Since current year salaries count against the cap in full without being pro-rated, you count the full $3M and the $7M in deferrals you made, and you do not decrease your cap amount in 2025 by trading him. The number here is 0. There are zero savings against the cap—the Saints' obligations to the cap are equal to the full amount of consideration owed in 2025.
That said, if they trade him today, another team would generally assume the salary and salary guarantees (but not the pro-rated or amortized signing bonuses and restructures). So if the Saints traded Kamara next week, say, they would have paid 1/3rd (Week 1 - Week 6) of his base salary. Given that the league tries to match expenditures to each teams’ cap number, they would get a credit against their 2026 expenditures of the pro-rated amount of Kamara's 2025 salary that the other team paid Kamara in 2025 (remember the total was $2.99M, or $3M rounded, for 2025 for salary). So the Saints would get a credit of 2/3rds (Week 7 - Week 18) of his annual salary in the year of 2026, which would be about $2M. But the 2025 cap liability because of Kamara is still $10M in 2025.
So let us turn to the second year, which is 2026. If the Saints hold Kamara on their roster and he plays 2026 with the Saints, they will have an $18.6M cap liability because of him for 2026. That comes from the $11.5M in salary, the $3.1M prorated portion of the signing bonus for 2026, and the $4M for the restructured obligation in ‘26.
The Saints cap hit is different in 2026 if they trade him. They would not be obligated to pay the $11.5M salary, as it is now up to the other club to deal with, including that $3M guarantee unless otherwise explicitly stated. So the Saints shed the $11.5M, but they would then have to account for all of their future obligations to Kamara for the 2026 cap year due to NFL rules. That means the signing bonus and restructuring payments that were scheduled to happen in '27 and '28 are accelerated into '26 and counted against that '26 cap year. Therefore, we have to look at the pro-rated signing bonus amounts of $3.1M owed for each year from ‘26-‘28 ($3.1M x 3 years = $9.3M) and also the ‘26 and ‘27 restructured dollar amounts owed ($4M + $1.9M = $5.9M). This gives you $9.3M+$5.9M, or, $15.2M in "dead cap" and total salary cap liability. $15.2M is the post-June 1st "dead cap" hit for 2026.
So then we take the $18.6M we would have had to count against the cap if the Saints retained Kamara and we compare it with the $15.2M in cap liabilities the Saints would be responsible for if they traded him. But first we have to apply the $2M credit from the pro-rated 2025 salary and apply it to the 2026 cap liability number and the Saints are down to $13.2M in cap liabilities for Kamara for 2026. Comparing that $13.2M with the $18.6M in cap liabilities incurred by the Saints if they held Kamara, you can see that they have $5.4M more in cap liabilities if they hold Kamara through 2026 rather than trading him now. So where are we?
When all is said and done, if the Saints trade Alvin Kamara before the deadline this season (2025):
They would save nothing against the cap in 2025.
They would decrease their cap liability from $18.6M to $13.2M in 2026, so they would "save" $5.4M in 2026.
They would no longer be on the hook against the cap for anything regarding Alvin Kamara in 2027 and 2028, so that would save them $8.1M in 2027.
Therefore, if the Saints trade Alvin Kamara, they will save a total of $13.5M against the cap, a savings that would begin in 2026.
Then you have to figure out the Saints cap hit if they release him after this year. It's trickier and expensive also, but I have stuff to do so I'll be back later.
If the Saints cut him next year and designate it as a pre-June 1st cut, then the cap hit is $18.2M in 2026 and zero after that. If it's a post-June 1st cut (you can do this with two players before June 1st) his cap hit is $10.1M for '26 and $8.1M against the cap for '27.
Cutting Kamara in 2026 vs. trading him this year (2025).
If they cut him in '26 (they will likely designate him post-June 1st) they'd save $3.1M in '26 because trading him means owing $13.2M against the cap in '26 (remember the credit) vs.$10.1M for cutting post-June 1st in '26. They'd owe $8.1M more in '27. This is versus trading him this year in 2025.
Cutting him in '26 vs. retaining him only saves them $350K in '26 and costs them $8.1M in '27. He is a UFA after '26. I doubt they re-sign him.
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zamboni
Footballguy
More broadly, the fantasy community tends to wishcast trades way too much. While trades in general have become more commonplace in the NFL than in past years, it's not like the MLB/NBA/NHL where guys are swapping back and forth at a dizzying pace right at the trade deadline.
Saw this tweet, got excited when I read the first sentence about him being subject of trade calls, and then it went all downhill.
RB Alvin Kamara has been the subject of trade calls, but his stance was made clear — He doesn’t want to go anywhere.
RB Alvin Kamara has been the subject of trade calls, but his stance was made clear — He doesn’t want to go anywhere.
rockaction
Footballguy
The passive relaying of information utterly tickles me. If I hadn’t had an absolutely ironclad lockbox that housed the honor of Mickey Loomis and the unassailable character of Alvin Kamara I just might think that one of those two is driving up the negotiating price. Why, he’s not even sure he wants to play next year for $8,5000,000 that requires his presence for its deposit in his name.
It’s a story in three acts!
eta* I see meno posted this. This is some sort of public relations piece. Loomis and the Saints PR guys must be eighty at the youngest.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Then again, there are people who I think are probably the most dialed in guys, and they seem to think that this is totally earnest and legitimate and I'm not sure I've seen Nick Underhill really miss things with his reporting. I find it awfully hard to believe Kamara is going to walk away from that $8.5M, but here's the thing. I'm not sure the benefit to the Saints is so great that they want to piss off the city and Kamara.
Everyone will say follow the cash to the nearest dime, and I just can't quite buy it. I can buy it if Underhill isn't really that close to Kamara but needs to report something to cement his status as independent journalist hooked and dialed into the Saints. We all need to do things to make our ends meet, and after all, if we held beat writers to every take it would be obnoxious of us. I get two feelings about this: 1) credibility is Underhill's currency. I think he doesn't even say it if he doesn't know (and he admits Kamara is indeed an enigma) and 2) I guess I just buy that this is sui generis all around and that Kamara is willing to hang 'em up if dealt and he genuinely doesn't want to go to the club he's dealt to.
I'm going to lean this way for now and then change my mind tempestuously as I am wont to do.
Oh schnap, I almost forgot my referent.
Nick Underhill
@nick_underhill
·5h
I think Alvin is the kind of guy who wants to give everything to one city and belong to one place. He’s very much an enigma, but that much, to me, seems to be clear. If something ever broke that bond, I truly think he’d walk away.
Everyone will say follow the cash to the nearest dime, and I just can't quite buy it. I can buy it if Underhill isn't really that close to Kamara but needs to report something to cement his status as independent journalist hooked and dialed into the Saints. We all need to do things to make our ends meet, and after all, if we held beat writers to every take it would be obnoxious of us. I get two feelings about this: 1) credibility is Underhill's currency. I think he doesn't even say it if he doesn't know (and he admits Kamara is indeed an enigma) and 2) I guess I just buy that this is sui generis all around and that Kamara is willing to hang 'em up if dealt and he genuinely doesn't want to go to the club he's dealt to.
I'm going to lean this way for now and then change my mind tempestuously as I am wont to do.
Oh schnap, I almost forgot my referent.
Nick Underhill
@nick_underhill
·5h
I think Alvin is the kind of guy who wants to give everything to one city and belong to one place. He’s very much an enigma, but that much, to me, seems to be clear. If something ever broke that bond, I truly think he’d walk away.
Dizzy
Footballguy
FWIW - Schefter commented on the McAfee show on Friday that there has been an average of 16 trades in October for the NFL in this new era of younger GMs that "like the action"... based on what he is hearing, he expects there to be more trades this year up to the deadline (as many as 20).
He didn't mention Kamara, or any player specifically... but there are good teams with a serious need for RB. Hard to believe Kamara wouldn't be moved... unless teams feel he's got too little left in the tank.
He didn't mention Kamara, or any player specifically... but there are good teams with a serious need for RB. Hard to believe Kamara wouldn't be moved... unless teams feel he's got too little left in the tank.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Playing today? I'm hesitantly starting with no confidence.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
First thing I read this morning was that he will be "in uniform today." I'm probably overthinking it, but my mind immediately went to "is that different than active?"
He's no longer a must-start, by any means. But, I'm starting him in a league where my alternative would be Gainwell. I'm also benching him (and possibly Henry) in favor of Kyren Williams and Dowdle. Definitely depends on what alternatives you have, I think.
He's no longer a must-start, by any means. But, I'm starting him in a league where my alternative would be Gainwell. I'm also benching him (and possibly Henry) in favor of Kyren Williams and Dowdle. Definitely depends on what alternatives you have, I think.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Yeah, mine are Burden or Tuten so I'm sticking with Kamara. Fully expect to be disappointed.
rockaction
Footballguy
Tons. Nobody knows. Check Nick Underhill, who is a Saints indie jounalist, and then Ross Jackson of NOLA.com.
They along with national reporters like Shefter and Rapaport all tweeted or wrote articles in the past week using different verbiage but all saying essentially he won't be traded because he does not want to go.
Shefter and Rapaport both dropped articles about the same time this week detailing how Loomis, the Saints GM, sat down with Kamara and told him teams were interested but out of respect to him they'd do what he wanted, which was to not get traded.
Then Sunday morning whoever runs the New Orleans Saints social media account was sending out images of Kamara appreciation tweets.
This reporting is most likely all accurate, it's what I've heard and thought for awhile, but I got to admit it almost seemed to coordinated this weekend to get the message out he wanted to be a Saint for life. It wwas making me start to think, and I've not completely given up on the thought, they were greasing his exit and setting it up so that there would be only love for him in Nola if he got traded, that he'd be able to always say I never wanted to leave but the team had to do what's right for the team.
rockaction
Footballguy
The only thing that got me to not be cynical was Underhill. The story Rapaport tweeted out was a complete joke—read it for more than one second as a reader who isn’t credulous and it sounds exactly like a badly written press release. I wrote an FBG writer on Twitter who posted it and I said that Loomis and Kamara are trying to get Loomis extra draft capital and seeing if they can’t get the $8.5M coming to Kamara as salary in 2026 guaranteed by another team via a restructure or guarantee (eta* if the Saints cut him post-June 1st they save the salary amount but have $10.3M in cap liabilities for ’26 and a $8.2M cap hit in ’27). And I thought it also helped to do what you said—send the beloved Saint on his way with the cheers of the New Orleans faithful.
But Underhill (who I used to read and is by all accounts legit) Tweeted this and despite the awkward full-court press of the PR machine I nodded and said “Maybe. Maybe so. We will see.” $8.5M is a lot of money to leave hanging.
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Please trade him. My season is nearly in the toilet but KM is on my bench and ready to RUMBLE
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Would look pretty sweet in a Chiefs uni, and that offense would be an absolute nightmare with him.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
As much as I would like seeing Kendre Miller get the Saints backfield on one of my teams, my current hatred for the Chiefs outweighs that desire. I don’t want the Chiefs to benefit from a Kamara signing.
I dont think Nick Underhill said that retirement line, I think people are just inferring that because why would a grown man drink a pina colada anywhere but at the beach or poolside at the resort?
I don't think he'll get traded so we'll never know but I believe he'd retire about the same way I thought Keenan Allen would when he said last year before he got traded to the Bears, when he said he'd rather retire then play for someone else then the Chargers.....Well, now that I think about it, maybe he did pull a soft retirement last year.
Chaka
Footballguy
Maybe the Saints should trade Kendre to the Chiefs.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
My man! He owns this town.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Abita awarded Kamara a lifetime supply of free beer.
He ain’t goin’ nowhere.
He ain’t goin’ nowhere.
dmac37
Footballguy
Purple Haze for life
Afraid I have to agree, also looks bigger to me.
But statistically he’s actually been this guy since the 2020 season, his last year with Brees. I’ve mentioned this a few times but he’s been more of a plodder than someone like Najee Harris since that time.
In last 4 plus season not a single run over 40 yards, which is not a huge deal, but only 9 runs over 20 yards since the 2020 season. Not a lot of explosives in the passing game either.
I can see why teams would values his toughness, leadership and 3 down skill set. I’m not sure teams struggling to run the ball would view him as some kind of answer or as much of an offensive weapon.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
The Saints starting Center McCoy is likely out for the season. That certainly won't help Kamara.
zamboni
Footballguy
Miller out for the season with a torn ACL should increase his opportunities, for what it's worth, unless the rookie Neal gets some run.
zamboni
Footballguy
Perhaps more importantly, would a suitor want to take on his contract for that diminishing skill set.
