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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (4 Viewers)

Breaking: “Former #2 overall Greg Robinson busted driving with 38.89 pounds of marijuana, 3.16 pounds of crystal methamphetamine, 2.22 pounds of cocaine, 4 grams of crack cocaine, 227 doses of hydrocodone, 48 doses of oxycodone and 18 doses of alprazolam.”

Thank goodness this wasn’t in Vegas. I can only imagine how bad this would have been with all that temptation on every corner. 
/sarcasm 

 
Breaking: “Former #2 overall Greg Robinson busted driving with 38.89 pounds of marijuana, 3.16 pounds of crystal methamphetamine, 2.22 pounds of cocaine, 4 grams of crack cocaine, 227 doses of hydrocodone, 48 doses of oxycodone and 18 doses of alprazolam.”
Well I'm glad to see he didn't blow all his NFL money at once, he at least saved some for high interest investments.

 
Nate Newton scoffs in his general direction. 
Let's check to see how this shakes out, per on-line pricing: (these are street prices, not friend prices, not cut or broken down to small quantities):

Robinson
Meth: 3.16 pounds x $3,500/lb = $11,600
MJ: 38.89 pounds x $2,200/lb = $85,558
Coke: 2.22 pounds x $27,000/lb = $59,940
Crack: 4 grams x $100/gm = $400
Oxy: 48 doses x $25/dose = $1,200
Xanax: 18 doses x $5.50/dose = $99
Vicodin: 227 doses x $25/dose = $5,675
Total Value: $164,472

Newton
MJ: 213 pounds x $2,200/lb = $468,600

Looks like your assessment is correct.

 
Let's check to see how this shakes out, per on-line pricing: (these are street prices, not friend prices, not cut or broken down to small quantities):

Robinson
Meth: 3.16 pounds x $3,500/lb = $11,600
MJ: 38.89 pounds x $2,200/lb = $85,558
Coke: 2.22 pounds x $27,000/lb = $59,940
Crack: 4 grams x $100/gm = $400
Oxy: 48 doses x $25/dose = $1,200
Xanax: 18 doses x $5.50/dose = $99
Vicodin: 227 doses x $25/dose = $5,675
Total Value: $164,472

Newton
MJ: 213 pounds x $2,200/lb = $468,600

Looks like your assessment is correct.
And Nate did it TWICE! :pickle:  

 
I haven’t read too many, “accountant’s convention attendees engage in bar brawl sending 3 to the hospital” stories. Every other year for a decade+ I went to Pack Expo in Vegas, a packaging equipment expo with hoards of pharmacists & food manufacturers. Never saw a fight once.
We accountants have to protect our hands. 😇 Plus we are spending our time with the ladies!! 🤣

 
If this was close to the start of the season maybe a suspension.

I dont think there will be
He punched an unconscious victim 3x. (At least) on camera, while also engaging in an assault by his entire group. Also on video. They kicked him multiple times.

all on video. 

there will be a suspension, IMO.

 
Zero point zero zero percent chance he gets jail time from this.  There will be a settlement with the victim, Kamara will get a handful of games off, and that’ll be the end of it.  

 
SayWhat? said:
Zero point zero zero percent chance he gets jail time from this.  There will be a settlement with the victim, Kamara will get a handful of games off, and that’ll be the end of it.  
He punched and kicked an unconscious man while taking part in a team beat-down. On camera. 

I put his chances at jail time at substantially greater than zero.

I’m reasonably certain settling with the victim isn’t an option when cops are watching a video of someone criming. That’ll be something for the civil suit, when the victim sues Kamara for several years worth of salary. Won’t help him if the DA goes after him. 

And Las Vegas is a fairly low tolerance city. 

 
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He punched and kicked an unconscious man while taking part in a team beat-down. On camera. 

I put his chances at jail time at substantially greater than zero.

I’m reasonably certain settling with the victim isn’t an option when cops are watching a video of someone criming. That’ll be something for the civil suit, when the victim sues Kamara for several years worth of salary. Won’t help him if the DA goes after him. 

And Las Vegas is a fairly low tolerance city. 
And when the mob ran Vegas it was even lower tolerance. The thing organized crime hates most is unorganized crime.

 
And when the mob ran Vegas it was even lower tolerance. The thing organized crime hates most is unorganized crime.
Plus the video is a killer. Echoes of Ray Rice. 

If I were a betting man (hahaha) I’d be willing to bet that video is gonna come out. And it will create a demand for justice. Examples will be made, heavy handed sentences, etc.

If this had happened anywhere else, outside the prying eyes of CCTV, I could see a slap on the wrist quiet settlement to make this all go away.

as it is, I’m expecting the worst. If I had Kamara rostered I’d sell as quickly as possible. But that’s just me. I’m skittish Ike that. 

 
There's lawyers in here I think that might have some criminal background but.. don't 90%++ of all criminal cases end in a plea agreement where the defendant ends up with a guilty plea for a lesser version of whatever they're being charged with? Jury duty/ jury selection day brought this point home for me. Actual criminal trials involve folks that don't have much to lose or believe they can win. Plea agreement day and jury selection day is like a game of chicken where all the deals get hammered out for the people that haven't reached that point yet in their negotiation. Or not. But mostly. 

So if he's being charged with a crime (felony battery resulting in substantial bodily harm) that has a 1-5 year sentence associated, and he has the best lawyers money can buy, he's going to end up with a lesser version of that. So I think yes, jail is a greater than zero chance in theory but in practice, the odds are probably not super high. 

I'm not sure wild speculation about his criminal stuff is much more useful than the last round of Vegas crime bias conversation so I'll end this here and bow out.

 
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There's lawyers in here I think that might have some criminal background but.. don't 90%++ of all criminal cases end in a plea agreement where the defendant ends up with a guilty plea for a lesser version of whatever they're being charged with? Jury duty/ jury selection day brought this point home for me. Actual criminal trials involve folks that don't have much to lose or believe they can win. Plea agreement day and jury selection day is like a game of chicken where all the deals get hammered out for the people that haven't reached that point yet in their negotiation. Or not. But mostly. 

So if he's being charged with a crime (felony battery resulting in substantial bodily harm) that has a 1-5 year sentence associated, and he has the best lawyers money can buy, he's going to end up with a lesser version of that. So I think yes, jail is a greater than zero chance in theory but in practice, the odds are probably not super high. 

I'm not sure wild speculation about his criminal stuff is much more useful that the last round of Vegas crime bias conversation so I'll end this here and bow out.
It is true that crimes are pleaded down. 

Might it be reduced to 0 jail time for a felony with a guilty plea? I doubt that. But I could see 6 months, with some conditional things (anger management, restitution to victim, etc)

Maybe I'm off base here, but IMO the video complicates matters. If/when a national audience sees the video, there may be external influence impacting how much the sentence can be reduced. 

Then it's a political thing, not a justice system thing. 

 
I dont think any jail time either.

One thing I have noticed lately where I work, it is apparently very VERY difficult to get put in jail for any length of time.  And I am referring to people that have no money.
The bolded is, or opposite of that, is why he’s not doing jail time for a group beat down of a man.  

 
Yeah, I think it's a pretty big longshot he sees a jail cell.  Unless he has a lot of prior stuff we dont know about.


So Ray Rice was originally charged with kid gloves. Simple assault. His case was dismissed, but he was legitimately facing up to 5 years if convicted. 

Although Rice was originally charged with simple assault, a misdemeanor offense, a grand jury indicted Rice for third-degree aggravated assault, a felony. This meant that, if convicted, Rice would face up to five years in jail rather than a fine, the typical punishment for simple assault.
Again - if none of this happened on camera, I would agree with everyone saying no jail time. 

But it did. And it will likely come out. 

Which, IMO, changes things.  I won't say "quote me if I'm wrong" because 1. I concede I might be, and 2. y'all will regardless. :)  

 
Sure, the video may come out.  And when it does, it won’t be Ray Rice beating his girl.  That visually appalling.  Because anyone with half a brain knows you don’t hit women.  It’s just a bad apples to apples comparison.

No, this video would be of a dude getting his ### kicked, possibly unjustifiably.  And nobody will care even to even 10% of the level of Ray Rice because…well, it’s a dude getting his ### kicked.  Yes, even if it shows ten other guys beating him silly.  And punched and kicked when he’s on the ground.  Jail time just highly unlikely if the guy didn’t end up with some serious long term complications.

 
Sure, the video may come out.  And when it does, it won’t be Ray Rice beating his girl.  That visually appalling.  Because anyone with half a brain knows you don’t hit women.  It’s just a bad apples to apples comparison.

No, this video would be of a dude getting his ### kicked, possibly unjustifiably.  And nobody will care even to even 10% of the level of Ray Rice because…well, it’s a dude getting his ### kicked.  Yes, even if it shows ten other guys beating him silly.  And punched and kicked when he’s on the ground.  Jail time just highly unlikely if the guy didn’t end up with some serious long term complications.
I believe it will be just as appalling for the gang on 1 aspect, and for the fact that he continued to rain blows after dude was unconscious. 

 
I believe it will be just as appalling for the gang on 1 aspect, and for the fact that he continued to rain blows after dude was unconscious. 
Another thing to consider is just how important is this player to the NFL? Sure he's important to those of us that have him in FF, as well as some Saints fans. But it's not like the league is featuring Saints games going forward. Lost their HOF QB, their highly regarded HC, and their best WR is MIA. They could use him as their example of "how tough" they are when it comes to crimes committed by players. Just a possibility.

 
It is true that crimes are pleaded down. 

Might it be reduced to 0 jail time for a felony with a guilty plea? I doubt that. But I could see 6 months, with some conditional things (anger management, restitution to victim, etc)

Maybe I'm off base here, but IMO the video complicates matters. If/when a national audience sees the video, there may be external influence impacting how much the sentence can be reduced. 

Then it's a political thing, not a justice system thing. 
Politics are certainly a factor. But unless there’s something here we don’t know, the politics won’t be pushing for Alvin to spend much, if any, time in a real jail. Fines, probation, home arrest, other options are on the table. Victim may get a nice payday out of it. 

 
Another thing to consider is just how important is this player to the NFL? Sure he's important to those of us that have him in FF, as well as some Saints fans. But it's not like the league is featuring Saints games going forward. Lost their HOF QB, their highly regarded HC, and their best WR is MIA. They could use him as their example of "how tough" they are when it comes to crimes committed by players. Just a possibility.
Agreed - NFL do be like that. Call it a convenient scapegoat. 

 
So assuming he gets 6 games, he will be 27, and in his 6 year. What would you pay for him. Late first? Some one like Pollard? 
If you have a good team how much do you even really discount a 6 game absence??  Not much for me IMO.  Not weeks 1-6.

I dont even think he misses time

 
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one reason I wouldn’t in the one league I am thinking about it is suspensions have to stay on the active roster. Can’t use an IR spot 
Even without this incident I wouldn’t want to overspend on kamara. They just lost Peyton, & they don’t have a franchise QB. Their office could be a complete mess. And he’s not young.

ETA: he’ll be 27 in July. So ok, he’s not old either, but will the Saints be improved before he ages out? Will injuries start to mount?  My trade calc (SF) has him worth a 2022 1.03

non-SF 1.02

Seems like Kamara owners won’t want to sell for that. 

 
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Even without this incident I wouldn’t want to overspend on kamara. They just lost Peyton, & they don’t have a franchise QB. Their office could be a complete mess. And he’s not young.

ETA: he’ll be 27 in July. So ok, he’s not old either, but will the Saints be improved before he ages out? Will injuries start to mount?  My trade calc (SF) has him worth a 2022 1.03

non-SF 1.02

Seems like Kamara owners won’t want to sell for that. 
Fully agree. 27 is pretty old for a RB in my opinion. In addition to losing Payton, Armstead is likely gone as well. I'm not confident Kamara is an RB1 going forward. He's a much better pass catcher than runner, and that will almost certainly be less of how he's used without Payton. Payton's RB as a pass catcher usage isn't Kamara, Sproles and Bush also had huge receiving numbers for RBs too.

Kamara averaged 22 touches a game this season. That likely comes down, and certainly isn't going to go up. 

Now adding in this incident. I'd happily take any pick in the mid 1st round for him. I'm not sure Kamara is really better than a Jacobs/Montgomery type. 

 
It is true that crimes are pleaded down. 

Might it be reduced to 0 jail time for a felony with a guilty plea? I doubt that. But I could see 6 months, with some conditional things (anger management, restitution to victim, etc)

Maybe I'm off base here, but IMO the video complicates matters. If/when a national audience sees the video, there may be external influence impacting how much the sentence can be reduced. 

Then it's a political thing, not a justice system thing. 
he’s not gonna get jail time.  
 

the guy beaten wasn’t severely injured.  He was out of the hospital within days.  He was on his twitter a couple days after and seemed fine. 
 

he’s also a self described party planner in Vegas (basically drug dealer/pimp).

he won’t be cooperating with the police.  He’ll take a settlement.

the DA can still press charges but without a cooperating victim they will plea down to something minor.  
 

the NFL may suspend him for 4-6 though. 

 
he’s not gonna get jail time.  
 

the guy beaten wasn’t severely injured.  He was out of the hospital within days.  He was on his twitter a couple days after and seemed fine. 
 

he’s also a self described party planner in Vegas (basically drug dealer/pimp).

he won’t be cooperating with the police.  He’ll take a settlement.

the DA can still press charges but without a cooperating victim they will plea down to something minor.  
 

the NFL may suspend him for 4-6 though. 
As I understand it, 1 video = 1 cooperating victim.  Why do they need cooperation when they can play it on a 60” OLED in the courtroom? 

this isn’t some 1940s mobster refusing to point out the killer. They got video for that now, son. 

If the DA presses charges, anything is on the table. And a 4 on 1 or 5 on 1 beat down is something the city of Las Vegas might want to send a message about.

Time will tell, but I lack your confidence that he’ll see no time. It might not be likely, but it’s on the table. 

 
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As I understand it, 1 video = 1 cooperating victim.  Why do they need cooperation when they can play it on a 60” OLED in the courtroom? 
A D.A. is less likely to pursue an indictment without the victim participating in the case. What does it tell a jury if the "victim" isn't even interested enough to show up to trial?

Obviously it can be done since there is a such thing as a prosecution for murder - and the video surely helps - but the point stands.

 
Update: 

“LAS VEGAS (AP) Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Chris Lammons become the fourth suspect arrested in connection with an assault at a Las Vegas nightclub that prompted the Feb. 6 arrest of New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara.

Lammons turned himself in Thursday in Las Vegas and was briefly booked into the Clark County Detention Center on suspicion of felony battery resulting in substantial bodily harm and conspiracy to commit battery, police said.

Two other men, Darrin Young and Percy Harris, turned themselves in Monday and were booked on the same charges before posting bonds.

Police say surveillance video shows Kamara and at least three other men attacked the victim Feb. 5 at about 6:30 a.m. They say it shows Kamara punching the man repeatedly before others stomped on the man while he was on the floor at the rooftop nightclub Drai's above the Cromwell hotel-casino.

Kamara was arrested Feb. 6 after he played in the NFL Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium. Police say he told officers he punched the man after he thought he had done something to someone in his group and was trying to run away.

He faces a single charge of felony battery resulting in substantial bodily harm. He was released on bond and scheduled to appear in court on March 8.

Lammons' first court appearance also is set for March 8. His attorney, Ross Goodman, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal Thursday he plans to launch his own investigation of the alleged attack.

''It appears to be an unplanned and spontaneous altercation based on my review of the reports,'' he said.

Las Vegas police said in a statement after Lammons' arrest Thursday they're still investigating.”

 

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