jurb26
Footballguy
The preseason has that effect on people. They see what they want to see.
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RB Carlos Hyde, JAC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ebsteelers
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
Or as some would say, being slow enough to not outrun your blocks even when you try.
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
I'm not trying to argue with you or anyone specifically but I think Fred Jackson was or is a guy who is one of the mot patient RBs at waiting for blocks to happen. Jackson is no speed demon but his patience allows him to usually find yards and gain positive yards plus he breaks a heckuva lot of tackles. Is there a reason you are bearish on Hyde? He is one Gore strain from seeing a rather sizable workload on a team with a ferocious OL and SB aspirations.
You're a reasonable guy, what is it you're not liking here, you mentioned speed so I got that written down, what else?
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jurb26
Footballguy
I haven't said I didn't like him. I said he looked decent. The only thing I don't really like is the preseason over reactions. Especially to a couple of runs that were perfectly blocked and didn't really show much of anything. Anyone bumping him off of this game is pushing an agenda IMO.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Hyde looks slimmer than I remember.
identikit
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
I thought the same thing. NFL vs college athletes that you see him contrasted against. 28 vs 34. The Ohio St jersey font versus the 49ers jersey font. Those would be my guesses.
Carlos Hyde sharp in San Francisco 49ers debut:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000375644/article/carlos-hyde-sharp-in-san-francisco-49ers-debut
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000375644/article/carlos-hyde-sharp-in-san-francisco-49ers-debut
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
All fair points and you're right, you never said you didn't like him so give me back those words, tyvm.
Let's focus on the run that Kenny King highlighted for us earlier. You state you see great blocking and that's true. I also see a guy who has a nice 1st step or burst to break it to the outside and up the sidelines before 2 guys corral him. I don't think i have an agenda but Chris Johnson had the ball in space for NY last night if you have a chance to pull the game tape, lot of space and not much happened(pass play).
Even if Hyde is simply capitalizing on the #1 OL in football...SO WHAT!? I'm just pointing out that you make an excellent point, his OL blows the snotbubbles out of the defense, fine by me.
Again like your posts, understand the preseason hype getting out of control, can't disagree but I think there's real gold in them there hills. I'll even go a bit further. At some point in 2014, be it a Gore calf strain on a stretch run before the playoffs and they want to rest him, or perhaps nothing to do with any strains or down time, but I think Hyde will have a handful of big games that get folks attention. Trying to predict those games will be difficult at this moment but things are looking good so far for him. The situation is proving itself with the talent he is surrounded by.
My gut says 2014: Handful of big games and sets up nice for a larger share in 2015.
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jurb26
Footballguy
Again, I like Hyde and always have. So I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here. Just trying to look at things objectively. He looked decent to me. The run you reference was blocked perfectly. He did a nice job of getting outside and capitalizing on the play. Is it a play that made me think "wow, I better bump this guy!"? No, not at all. Nothing about the game said that to me. Hyde looked decent but didn't do anything earth shattering; break tackles or show unexpected burst, ect. He looks a bit slow to that corner if you ask me but that's the player he is IMO. He's not a guy who will ever wow you with burst or acceleration. He's a between the tackles down hill runner with enough to make you pay on the edge if the play transpires right. He won't be outrunning angles to the edge like Jamal Charles, though. It's funny seeing how both sides of the argument view that play and see confirmation for their perspective. This is often the case in the preseason.
I don't disagree with Hyde's potential opportunity. If injury happens to Gore he will be gravy. The issue I have is primarily with the "bumping" of him because that potential is already built into the price. People already knew going in that if something happens to Gore he would be gravy. He's already the 2nd ranked rookie RB most places. Bumping him up, or down for that matter, off of preseason game 1 is just silly if you ask me.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
No dog in this fight at all, and didn't read the rest of the thread yet, but Arian Foster has made a career out of doing pretty much this exact thing. Speed at RB isn't always that big of a deal, depending on scheme.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Wait. Am I getting this right? A RB utilizing his blockers is now a bad thing?
Yeah, I'm going to target Hyde in my redrafts. I hope nothing happens to Gore, but he is getting up in age. That RB depth chart is getting thin and with that OL San Francisco has, he is definitely worth a slot on your roster late in the draft.
jurb26
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I thought he looked like an NFL back. Nice big bruiser. Just the kind of back San Fran needs to transition away from Gore. I could see a close to 50/50 split this season with Gore to be honest. Hyde is going to continue to get better and Gore is going to continue to get older. At some point their respective arcs are going to meet. I think that point is this season. But I've been counting Gore out for a while now and have been wrong.
Hyde has the body type to withstand a full load. He's the type of back who punishes people, he doesn't get punished.
Hyde has the body type to withstand a full load. He's the type of back who punishes people, he doesn't get punished.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yeah, but according to some here he's not fast enough to keep up with his O-linemen. At least that's what they saw when they watched whatever it was they were watching.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I like what I've seen so far from Hyde, but it's not because of that 19 yd run. There's a 4 yd run he made with 5:50 remaining in the 1st qt which reaffirmed to me that he has quick enough feet for a guy his size to succeed in the NFL. There are some dudes that earn their YPC by ripping off big runs every so often (Spiller comes to mind), and others that get a little more out of nothing on every play. Hyde IMO falls into the latter category. His greatest asset is his foot quickness for a guy his size, and many larger RBs have made a living from that (i.e. Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis).
From what I've seen of him thus far, he also looks comfortable in the passing game, blocking and receiving. While there's nothing in the Ravens game that I saw which makes me think I have to reach for him, there's also nothing that told me he won't be successful in the NFL either.
From what I've seen of him thus far, he also looks comfortable in the passing game, blocking and receiving. While there's nothing in the Ravens game that I saw which makes me think I have to reach for him, there's also nothing that told me he won't be successful in the NFL either.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah well great. I saw a football player. He was Daniel Jeremiah's top back before the draft and after. That's one pundit who I really trust.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The Niners ran 505 times last year with Gore getting 276. CK will take up about 100 of those. That leaves room for 100 carries for Hyde if Gore doesn't see less work. I think Hyde might see about 7 carries a game. If he is really effective, that could certainly rise and create more of a 60/40 split with Gore getting 15 and Hyde getting a game.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
SF has been trying to find a RB to little the load on Gore for a while. Now that it looks like they have, as well as his heir, I could see Hyde getting 8-10 carries a game plus a couple of catches. That would still leave Gore at 14-15 carries per game. Seems like a reasonable ratio.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
You have to love Hyde's dynasty prospects.
As for redraft, I predict that he'll be a decent flex starter by midseason. Anyone drafting Hyde with the hopes that Hyde will send Gore to the bench doesn't know Frank Gore very well. However, I think SF knows what they have in Gore. SF trusts Gore and sees Gore as a critical component of that offense. I think Hyde could shine late in the season as SF rests Gore a bit for the post-season.
As for redraft, I predict that he'll be a decent flex starter by midseason. Anyone drafting Hyde with the hopes that Hyde will send Gore to the bench doesn't know Frank Gore very well. However, I think SF knows what they have in Gore. SF trusts Gore and sees Gore as a critical component of that offense. I think Hyde could shine late in the season as SF rests Gore a bit for the post-season.
The SF OL is not what it was the last few years. Iupati is struggling coming back from a broken leg, and they might have three new starters on opening day. I don't think they will be awful as the new players are better than replacement level, IMO, but this is going to be a different unit blocking for Gore/Hyde this year. Something to keep in mind before you go nuts bidding up Hyde.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Nailed it.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Transcript from media session with Greg Roman:
"What are your thoughts of RB Frank Gore’s workload early in the year and also giving yourself a chance to see some of the other guys, like RB Carlos Hyde?"
“Yeah, that’s a tough one because Frank doesn’t want to come off the field [laughs]. He’s a team guy and he’s been on a really good plan this summer. We’ll just see how it goes because once the game starts, we’re going to do whatever it takes to win the game. At the same time, you don’t want to wear out a particular player. We just got to work together on that. If somebody’s hot, we’ve got to stay with the hot hand and try to have a plan ahead of time, though, to where we can utilize each player in a specific manner. Things change in the course of a game, so we’ll see how that goes. It’s a good question, though.”
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/roman-weve-got-stay-hot-hand/
"What are your thoughts of RB Frank Gore’s workload early in the year and also giving yourself a chance to see some of the other guys, like RB Carlos Hyde?"
“Yeah, that’s a tough one because Frank doesn’t want to come off the field [laughs]. He’s a team guy and he’s been on a really good plan this summer. We’ll just see how it goes because once the game starts, we’re going to do whatever it takes to win the game. At the same time, you don’t want to wear out a particular player. We just got to work together on that. If somebody’s hot, we’ve got to stay with the hot hand and try to have a plan ahead of time, though, to where we can utilize each player in a specific manner. Things change in the course of a game, so we’ll see how that goes. It’s a good question, though.”
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/roman-weve-got-stay-hot-hand/
DocHolliday
Footballguy
My view on Hyde has not changed. He is going to be a good RB in the NFL. He will never be great due to his lack of breakaway speed but he is starting RB material. Gore is not done just yet so Hyde is still more of a flex player at best for FF. Hyde will get his chance to be the starter in SF next season.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Frank Gore has never had breakaway speed, and has managed a pretty good, dare I say GREAT, career. I also don't think Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Edgerrin James were known for their top end speed. In fact I would say in terms of gauging the career prospects of a RB, breakaway speed is probably the LEAST relevant.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I like Hyde, but I don't think we've seen enough from Hyde to make this proclamation. Gore had an uncanny ability to make defenders at the 2nd level miss and turn 10 yd runs into 30+ yd runs. I've yet to see this from Hyde.
Gore is the best pass protecting RB in the league. It's going to be tough for the coaches to sit him while he can do that and still be productive running the ball.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Posted this in the Ascending Buys/Falling Knives thread, but probably more appropriate here...
My ascending buy is Carlos Hyde.
Here's a guy that is on the rise but can actually still be had for cheap because his role this season is as yet to be defined. However reading between the lines I can tell you that he'll have a significant role in the 49ers offense THIS SEASON.
1) They released LaMichael James - This may not seem like a big deal, but the release of James leaves Gore and Hyde as the only RBs on the roster. Whereas before when the niners backfield behind Gore seemed a quagmire of mediocrity, now there is only Hyde. I don't think this is coincidence, the coaches and front office know that they have their guy.
2) Hyde ran exclusively out of the shotgun/read option formation. Whereas Gore only ran out of shotgun 3 times out of 16 attempts. Again I don't think this is coincidence. Hyde has plenty of experience in the read/option from his OSU days whereas Gore has always seemed uncomfortable running from shotgun. This seems largely irrelevant until you factor in the fact that Kaepernick is most dangerous operating out of the read/option shotgun.
3) This is the last year of Gore's contract. Frank Gore is probably my favorite Niner of all time, but like all good things they come to an end. Local beatwriters are already crowning Hyde as the heir apparent, and if the media is thinking it, the coaches likely already know it. The front office may extend Gore beyond this season, but this is Hyde's show next year regardless. He will get the PT necessary to ensure that the "life after Gore" niners have a seasoned vet to handle RB duties by next September.
Last season Gore had 276 carries while the 3 headed monster of Hunter/James/Dixon combined for 118. Speculation before the season began from beatwriters were that Gore will likely get around 200 carries this season. Projecting for a total of 400 combined carries for niner RBs that leaves roughly 185-200 for Hyde which sounds about right to me. The coaching staff has talked about dialing back Gore's workload for years, but IMO they've just never had anyone on the roster capable. TDs will likely also favor Hyde since he appears the favorite to assume Dixon's role of TD vulture.
Gore has amazingly gone from "injury-prone" to one of the ironmen of the NFL. I believe he is currently the leader in active RBs in consecutive games played. Should that streak come to an end, you have an immediate RB1 in Hyde ready to take over. I see a 50/50 split and pure RBBC by midseason in SF provided both guys stay healthy. I can see Hyde having a mini coming out party at home this Sunday Night at home against a TERRIBLE bears run defense so buy while he's still quiet.
My ascending buy is Carlos Hyde.
Here's a guy that is on the rise but can actually still be had for cheap because his role this season is as yet to be defined. However reading between the lines I can tell you that he'll have a significant role in the 49ers offense THIS SEASON.
1) They released LaMichael James - This may not seem like a big deal, but the release of James leaves Gore and Hyde as the only RBs on the roster. Whereas before when the niners backfield behind Gore seemed a quagmire of mediocrity, now there is only Hyde. I don't think this is coincidence, the coaches and front office know that they have their guy.
2) Hyde ran exclusively out of the shotgun/read option formation. Whereas Gore only ran out of shotgun 3 times out of 16 attempts. Again I don't think this is coincidence. Hyde has plenty of experience in the read/option from his OSU days whereas Gore has always seemed uncomfortable running from shotgun. This seems largely irrelevant until you factor in the fact that Kaepernick is most dangerous operating out of the read/option shotgun.
3) This is the last year of Gore's contract. Frank Gore is probably my favorite Niner of all time, but like all good things they come to an end. Local beatwriters are already crowning Hyde as the heir apparent, and if the media is thinking it, the coaches likely already know it. The front office may extend Gore beyond this season, but this is Hyde's show next year regardless. He will get the PT necessary to ensure that the "life after Gore" niners have a seasoned vet to handle RB duties by next September.
Last season Gore had 276 carries while the 3 headed monster of Hunter/James/Dixon combined for 118. Speculation before the season began from beatwriters were that Gore will likely get around 200 carries this season. Projecting for a total of 400 combined carries for niner RBs that leaves roughly 185-200 for Hyde which sounds about right to me. The coaching staff has talked about dialing back Gore's workload for years, but IMO they've just never had anyone on the roster capable. TDs will likely also favor Hyde since he appears the favorite to assume Dixon's role of TD vulture.
Gore has amazingly gone from "injury-prone" to one of the ironmen of the NFL. I believe he is currently the leader in active RBs in consecutive games played. Should that streak come to an end, you have an immediate RB1 in Hyde ready to take over. I see a 50/50 split and pure RBBC by midseason in SF provided both guys stay healthy. I can see Hyde having a mini coming out party at home this Sunday Night at home against a TERRIBLE bears run defense so buy while he's still quiet.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Excellent analysis. I think we're reading this situation the same way.
To amend what you said:
• Let me start by saying that while I own Hyde in a dynasty league, I am not going to make the mistake of discounting Gore and hyping Hyde. As you mentioned, Gore is one of my all-time favorite players. I drafted Gore as a rookie, and he was on my team for three years. Gore is still a shifty runner. Gore might be getting old for a RB, but he's still dangerous.
• All that said, much like Buffalo, the sheer volume of RB plays the 49ers will run makes Hyde almost an instant flex consideration. I'm not predicting a Gore injury. As you mentioned, Gore's been very durable the last couple of years. But I think it's fairly obvious that Hyde could still be startable in a 12 team league as an RB2 or a flex.
• Regarding Hyde's skillset, I think most people would agree he's no Lesean McCoy. But Hyde is quick for a big man, and he'll get to the corner faster than you'd think considering his size. There's little doubt that there are more talented RBs in this league. But we aren't just focusing on talent. We're talking about a powerful runner on one of the best run-blocking teams in the league.
• This is wild speculation from Matthew Berry, but it's interesting: When Harbaugh benched Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick, Smith was playing well and the 49ers were winning games. But Harbaugh elevated the better player. So there's precedent for Harbaugh anointing a younger guy as the starter.
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ISUDESTROYERS
Footballguy
What do you think about Hyde having a monster game against the pathetic Bears this week? I'm forecasting the Niners will LOAD UP on the Bears and run Hyde all day in second half putting up MONSTER #'s?
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
chinawildman
Footballguy
I predicted in another thread 12 carries for 70 yards and a TD with a catch for around 15 yds. I think it's reasonable to expect 10+ carries since he got 7 playing essentially 3 quarters and this is while LaMichael James was still on the roster (he had 2 carries).
The Bears run D was historically bad last season, and week one has done nothing to prove any different. Niners will get Boone back at RG and possibly Davis. I consider Hyde a pretty solid flex play this wknd, but hesitate go beyond that due to the possibility that should the niners fall behind, they will likely have Gore in to pass protect.
grateful zed
Footballguy
if i were sf,i would protect gore for the playoffs and run hyde during the regular season.
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chinawildman
Footballguy
So Carlos laid a fat egg against the Bears (the 49ers offense as a whole did...) but some silver linings:
1) Hyde's percentage of the snap count (Hyde/Gore) increased 20/46 vs 15/42 in week 1
2) The majority of read option plays w/ Hyde Kaepernick decided to keep the ball so his attempts are likely deflated as a result
3) Hyde was the RB on the 49ers last drive of the game, which surprised me.
4) Kaepernick actually threw a couple of times to the RBs... I suspect after turning it over 4 times the coaches will encourage him to check down more.
Not great of course, but something to look forward to if you're a Hyde owner.
1) Hyde's percentage of the snap count (Hyde/Gore) increased 20/46 vs 15/42 in week 1
2) The majority of read option plays w/ Hyde Kaepernick decided to keep the ball so his attempts are likely deflated as a result
3) Hyde was the RB on the 49ers last drive of the game, which surprised me.
4) Kaepernick actually threw a couple of times to the RBs... I suspect after turning it over 4 times the coaches will encourage him to check down more.
Not great of course, but something to look forward to if you're a Hyde owner.
I think that is an oversimplification. He was on the field for a significant portion of the offensive snaps this season, and plays on a productive (if only in fantasy terms) offense....that, in and of itself, make him relevant.
Good observations.
I blame the zero points more to Kaep's INTs & SF defensive issues. All the mishaps kept him from getting a more useful game script.
The usage is about where I'd expected so I'm not worried either.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
Just dropped for Donald Brown. I still think Hyde will be a good RB in the NFL. I do not have the RB depth to wait it out.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Depends on the game script. If the 49ers defense doesn't pick up, then Hyde's chances will diminish. But if the 49ers have a nice lead in their easier games, I think Hyde will get plenty of chances to wear down defenses. The 49ers have already shown that they don't want to wear down Gore too much.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
This would be questionable in dynasty. But in redraft, I really like Brown this year. Guy can play.
