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RB Carlos Hyde, JAC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ebsteelers
- Start date
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Agree, something 1.04 or higher
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Hyde was a late 2nd round pick who eked out 4.0 YPC in his rookie year on a solid team. He showed little in the receiving game. Yes, he will get an opportunity to improve, but the guys you mentioned will get opportunities as well, depending on where they go, and they are generally considered to have a lot higher upside.
I'd gladly give Hyde for a 1st this year. I'd give 4 Hydes for Gurley.
Tibereas
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade for later than 1.3. I like Hyde...A LOT. But there's no way I'm taking him over Gordon/Gurley/Cooper.
amnesiac
beer is good
imo, you got the equivalent value of a 2015 2.01. unless your team is stacked and you have extremely short rosters.
also that assumes it's the 1.01. which is no given.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
amnesiac
beer is good
ask NFL teams about that formula.
amnesiac
beer is good
i will trade my second round pick next year for a first round pick this year every year forever.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure their response would be "I don't play fantasy football so I have no idea".
Applying NFL logic to fantasy football is ridiculous. But hey, don't listen to me, go ahead and grab Winston or Mariota at 1.01 in your start 1 QB league just like an NFL team.
don't know your league rules but in any league i've been in, you'd have to have smoked a lot of crack to make that trade.
cstu
Footballguy
In 2013 the 2.1 would have netted you Christine Michael, J. Franklin, Ertz, or Keenan Allen, if you were very lucky.
In 2014 the 1.1 would have netted you Watkins/Evans/Beckham
amnesiac
beer is good
cool. different strokes i guess. still seems weird to me to trade a good player for a pick a year from now.
worst shtick I've ever read
Which doesn't hold true for the leagues most people are in, particularly since rookie drafts are several weeks away. I have been in dynasty leagues for over a decade and the few times I recall seeing it has been when the rookie draft is in progress and a player fell into the second that someone felt they couldn't pass up.
On second thought; I have also seen it in leagues that don't require a deposit for a future first and the team trading that future pick was not intending to stay in the league beyond the current year (so they obviously didn't care about giving up too much future value when it wouldn't cost them anything).
Outside of those exceptions, it is generally considered a poor deal by the conventional wisdom.
cstu
Footballguy
It comes down to the actual picks- a 2016 1st can be roughly equivalent to a 2015 2nd, if that 1st is likely to be late and the 2nd is early. The difference generally isn't a full round though (the 2.06 this year isn't worth as much as the 1.06 next year).
In this particular case, he said the 1st had a 90% chance at being #1 overall, which makes it so much more valuable than any 2nd this year.
Shutout
Footballguy
I tried to find some talk about Carlos Hyde in this thread among all the value perception of draft picks, but couldn't.
Anyway, was just going to post that I think Hyde will be one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this year relative to his draft cost. I think the Niners are a team going in the wrong direction and the organization is going to be forcing the issue to evaluate whether they think they can win with Kaepernick or not. Those two things combined add up to me to translate into games where the Niners aren't going to be good enough to have the luxury of feeding Hyde's stats. The presence of Reggie Bush there will kill Hyde's value a lot more than is being discussed currently (ppr) as he will be that guy robbing Hyde when the Niners are playing catch up.
I think Hyde owners need to be hoping that either the Niners are a LOT better than they are looking like they will be OR injuries to the other Rbs force Hyde to be on the field like Arian foster (78-82% of the time).
Anyway, was just going to post that I think Hyde will be one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this year relative to his draft cost. I think the Niners are a team going in the wrong direction and the organization is going to be forcing the issue to evaluate whether they think they can win with Kaepernick or not. Those two things combined add up to me to translate into games where the Niners aren't going to be good enough to have the luxury of feeding Hyde's stats. The presence of Reggie Bush there will kill Hyde's value a lot more than is being discussed currently (ppr) as he will be that guy robbing Hyde when the Niners are playing catch up.
I think Hyde owners need to be hoping that either the Niners are a LOT better than they are looking like they will be OR injuries to the other Rbs force Hyde to be on the field like Arian foster (78-82% of the time).
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I factor both Bush and Hunter as HUGE injury risks and wouldn't be surprised if both/either or missed significant time. That would leave the cupboard bare with just Hyde to carry the load. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mid round pick being spent on some depth even with the signing of Bush. I'd think if they got any quality play out of Hunter given his injuries the 9ers would almost see that as a bonus. If I were GM I'd want a 4th RB in there somewhere.
cstu
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So zero factoring of the team who's pick you would be getting?
Sounds rather....................nevermind, this HAS to be fishing
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
To get back to Hyde -- I fall firmly into the "sell high this offseason" group. At the end of the day, Hyde himself is a late 2nd round RB who managed 400 YFS with mediocre per-touch metrics as a rookie -- not exactly what I'm going to be excited with in the top half of the first round of my rookie draft. His value feels very much based on his situation, and that situation is really being over-rated IMO. I think we're looking at RBBC, with Bush dominating the passing game touches. The 49ers are on the downslope -- this isn't going to be a 13-3 team grinding the clock with a lead in the 4th quarter anymore. DLF ADP has him going as RB10 in the late 3rd in startup mocks, and I want zero part of him at that price.
Tau837
Footballguy
I own him in one league, and I'm expecting him to play well enough this season that his value will be higher to sell him midseason. Which I plan to do.Coeur de Lion said:
ETA: Part of my reasoning is that his value is not high in my league and thus he isn't worth selling right now.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
That's exactly my situation except the best offer I have is, well nothing. I've been actively trying to shop him to get some guys I like but all have been declined.
Madden Curse
Footballguy
As a potential buyer of Hyde, I wouldn't want to give up more than a 1.7 or 1.8. It's less a comment on Hyde than on his team - SF has a big chance to completely implode for the next few seasons, ie Hyde's prime. I think if Hyde was really a world-beater who could put his team on his back and succeed despite weakness all around him, he would have bumped Gore out of the way last season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was pretty high on Carlos Hyde as a RB prospect from the 2014 rookie class. I had him as a tier 1 prospect and second RB in my pre NFL draft rankings. Post NFL draft I dropped Hyde into tier 2 due to the time share with Gore meaning at least one season delay before he would get enough opportunity. I still considered the situation to be good based off of the quality of the offensive line and coaching philosophy of being run oriented and using a lot of heavy 2TE formations along with the read option, which is how Hyde was used in college as well.
Now a year later and Harbaugh is no longer the head coach. They lost guard Lupati in free agency and the offensive line is not looking like the strength it once was. Kaep struggled last season and the defense is not looking as good as it was without Willis and other important players on their defense.
So the outlook on his situation does not appear as positive for Hyde as it did just last season.
Hyde did not perform all that well in the limited action he did see last season. He did not play as well as Frank Gore. I have a gut feeling about this transition from Gore to Hyde perhaps being a bit like when Kevan Barlow took over for Garrison Hearst. Barlow split time with Hearst for three seasons before Barlow got his shot to be the lead RB. He outplayed Hearst in his third season when Hearst was 32 years old. A big chunk of Barlows performance that season came in 4games he got to start after Hearst was injured.
It is not taking as long for Carlos Hyde to get his opportunity as it did for Barlow. So that is a good thing, however Barlow had shown more explosiveness in his second and third seasons than Hyde has thus far. Looking at both Hyde and Barlows rookie seasons, their opportunity was similar but Barlow performed better.
2001 Kevan Barlow 3rd round pick 90 overall 125 carries 512 yards 4.1ypc 4 TD 28 targets 22 receptions 247 yards 11.2 ypc 1 TD
2014 Carlos Hyde 2nd round pick 57th overall 83 carries 333 yards 4ypc 4 TD 16 targets 12 receptions 68 yards 5.7ypc 0 TD
The ADP for Hyde has been higher during the early offseason (January) and since dropped a bit after offseason changes. But still remains a pretty high investment. I do like Carlos Hyde but that price makes me nervous.
If I were to rank Hyde with the 2015 RB he would be in tier 2a which also has TJ Yeldon.
Now a year later and Harbaugh is no longer the head coach. They lost guard Lupati in free agency and the offensive line is not looking like the strength it once was. Kaep struggled last season and the defense is not looking as good as it was without Willis and other important players on their defense.
So the outlook on his situation does not appear as positive for Hyde as it did just last season.
Hyde did not perform all that well in the limited action he did see last season. He did not play as well as Frank Gore. I have a gut feeling about this transition from Gore to Hyde perhaps being a bit like when Kevan Barlow took over for Garrison Hearst. Barlow split time with Hearst for three seasons before Barlow got his shot to be the lead RB. He outplayed Hearst in his third season when Hearst was 32 years old. A big chunk of Barlows performance that season came in 4games he got to start after Hearst was injured.
It is not taking as long for Carlos Hyde to get his opportunity as it did for Barlow. So that is a good thing, however Barlow had shown more explosiveness in his second and third seasons than Hyde has thus far. Looking at both Hyde and Barlows rookie seasons, their opportunity was similar but Barlow performed better.
2001 Kevan Barlow 3rd round pick 90 overall 125 carries 512 yards 4.1ypc 4 TD 28 targets 22 receptions 247 yards 11.2 ypc 1 TD
2014 Carlos Hyde 2nd round pick 57th overall 83 carries 333 yards 4ypc 4 TD 16 targets 12 receptions 68 yards 5.7ypc 0 TD
The ADP for Hyde has been higher during the early offseason (January) and since dropped a bit after offseason changes. But still remains a pretty high investment. I do like Carlos Hyde but that price makes me nervous.
If I were to rank Hyde with the 2015 RB he would be in tier 2a which also has TJ Yeldon.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I have a couple options with Hyde in the one league I have him. HUGE rebuild so i already have picks 1,2,3,4,6,7
I was offered picks 9 and 10 for Hyde
Also, I have the option of packaging Hyde and Keenan Allen for Cobb (plus a future 2nd or something along those lines), and MIGHT (not sure) be able to get Mike Evans with the same package.
Both offers from each owner look like they each have Hyde rated pretty high.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Tried to move Hyde and Cobb for Evans (before Cobb resigned); was rejected
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I offered Calvin for Hyde and 1.4. Didn't get a response
jurb26
Footballguy
Hyde is a cautionary tail of how quickly things can change in the NFL. Just last year people thought he would have the comforts of a dominating oline for years to come. Those advocating any rookie RB in Dal, take note.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Mentioned this in the L. Murray thread, offered a straight up trade, no PPR.
