RB Carries-Injuries Correlation? (1 Viewer)

[Thorolf]

I've been having a discussion with a buddy about the correlation between an RB's carries in one season to injuries in the next. He insists that there is a correlation, but I just don't see one.

He thinks the number is around 350 carries.

Is there any convincing evidence of this - not just anecdotal examples, but an actual statistical trend? Or are we talking about one of those things that SOUNDS right, but doesn't play out?

 

[Tick]

I think Doug Drinen did a study on this. Hunt around here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/

 

[Ozymandias]

The more miles you drive, the greater likelihood of getting in an accident.

But that doesn't mean you'll have one this year, or next, or even in the next five years. Too many other factors involved.

 

[SSOG]

The magic "uh-oh" number of carries for an RB is 370. Please note that this only includes carries, and not "touches" (i.e. rushes and receptions). Also, there are other risk factors to look out for. A sudden uncharacteristic rise in ypc is almost always a very very bad sign, for instance.

Read this article for statistics and details.

One last note: that article is 2 years old. It marked Ricky Williams, Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Ahman Green as guys to watch out for in 2004. How did they do?

LaDainian Tomlinson lost almost 600 combined yards from the previous season, although his TDs stayed more or less the same. Most alarming of all, he battled injuries all season, and saw his ypc drop by *1.4*. That's HUGE. Total losses included almost 60 fantasy points and over 70 points of VBD.

Jamal Lewis lost well over 1000 combined yards from the previous season, as well as 50% of his TDs. He missed 4 games due to injury and saw his ypc drop by a full yard. He put up less than HALF as many fantasy points in 2004 as in 2003, and his VBD dropped from 169 to ZERO.

Ahman Green lost about 800 combined yards and 12 TDs. Unlike Tomlinson and Lewis, Green stayed pretty healthy, missing only a single game... but he still saw his ypc drop by .8. His fantasy points were reduced by 150, and his VBD went from 203 to 39.

Ricky Williams... well, as the article stated, Ricky Williams retired, citing ridiculous workload as one of the reasons.

 

[Patoons]

The magic "uh-oh" number of carries for an RB is 370. Please note that this only includes carries, and not "touches" (i.e. rushes and receptions). Also, there are other risk factors to look out for. A sudden uncharacteristic rise in ypc is almost always a very very bad sign, for instance.

Interesting- Alexander hit 370 this season....