RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (6 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

Do you guys think Stewart is just going to go away? Serious question..........

I'll hang up and listen.

Tex

Stewart will be 30 years old this season. 

2014 13 games 49% snaps
2015 13 games 55% snaps
2016 13 games 51% snaps

He was barely playing on half of their snaps as it was without serious competition for playing time. While I don't think Stewart will go away completely, I wouldn't be surprised if his snaps are reduced this year due to other viable options.

The way Stewarts contract is set up, there is a lot of dead money if they were to cut him this year, no savings. Most of that dead cap goes away in 2018 however and still a large salary.

I suppose they burn Stewart up this year when they can. He's never been able to stay healthy very long though and thus the managed snaps.

 

[petekrum]

Do you guys think Stewart is just going to go away? Serious question..........

I'll hang up and listen.

Tex

No, and if he plays his usual 13 games I fully expect him to lead the team in carries and yards.

 

[flysack]

This is one of those players I'm terrified not to draft and terrified to draft. 

I hate guys like this. 

 

[BigTex]

No, and if he plays his usual 13 games I fully expect him to lead the team in carries and yards.

So are you drafting him with the expectations of him taking over by the end of the year and being the bellcow next year?

Tex

 

[DexterDew]

this thread has taken many turns... we are not at the backlash stage of him being a Top 10 NFL pick (and Top 5 FF Rookie).

I had him in a pair of Devy leagues, so I drafted him a year ago and got the "I just don't see it" response from league mates.

I see CAR phasing out Stewart as he doesn't have much to offer anymore. It is safe to assume everybody thought CAR would draft a RB. They drafted one with their 1st pick with a different skill set than what they already had. Maybe Stewart can still be the short yardage/GL back, especially if they are going to dial back Cam.

Stewart has been averaging the past three years about 210/860/6 for 13 games as the lead back. He just turned 30. It is safe to say he is physically declining. I also think CAR is going to change up their offense to reduce Cam's running and take advantage of CMAC and Samuel's versatility. They got the big uglies outside in Benjamin, Funchess and Olsen. I think this will be a fun offense to watch.

As for CMAC, I think he will lead the team in rushing and be a 60 catch guy.

 

[petekrum]

So are you drafting him with the expectations of him taking over by the end of the year and being the bellcow next year?

Tex

I'm not drafting him at all because I believe he'll always be a rbbc guy, and more valuable on real football than fantasy. 

 

[BigTex]

I'm not drafting him at all because I believe he'll always be a rbbc guy, and more valuable on real football than fantasy. 

So basically you don't believe he has the build or skill set for the NFL?

Tex

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

So basically you don't believe he has the build or skill set for the NFL?

Tex

And skin color. That's petekrum's position, not mine. I think pk is mostly relying on skin color when he predicts CMC will only be a COP guy. He's slowly trie to back away from that stance but his fingerprints are all over this thread. 

 

[petekrum]

So basically you don't believe he has the build or skill set for the NFL?

Tex

Nope, just not to be a fantasy star. I'm not using a high rookie pick on the next Gio, or Duke Johnson.

 

[petekrum]

And skin color. That's petekrum's position, not mine. I think pk is mostly relying on skin color when he predicts CMC will only be a COP guy. He's slowly trie to back away from that stance but his fingerprints are all over this thread. 

Believe me, I'm not backing away from my stance, I'm just not going into it any more because I'm tired of all the crying. I laugh every time I see him picked in the top three in a rookie draft.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Believe me, I'm not backing away from my stance, I'm just not going into it any more because I'm tired of all the crying. I laugh every time I see him picked in the top three in a rookie draft.

I think CMC owners will have the last laugh. I'm going to pick him 1.01 in my next rookie draft. 

 

[Boone22]

Nope, just not to be a fantasy star. I'm not using a high rookie pick on the next Gio, or Duke Johnson.

Just curious. Why can't he be the next LeSean McCoy?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Just curious. Why can't he be the next LeSean McCoy?

Or the next Marshall Faulk. Yep, I just said that. 

 

[msudaisy26]

Or the next Marshall Faulk. Yep, I just said that. 

He will have to settle for McCoy, Cooks has already been tabbed as the next Faulk. 

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

He will have to settle for McCoy, Cooks has already been tabbed as the next Faulk. 

A WR as the next Faulk?

 

[jeaton6]

He will have to settle for McCoy, Cooks has already been tabbed as the next Faulk. 

David Johnson and Lev Bell are the next Marshall Faulk (Running and Receiving stats wise). Cooks? What?

 

[buck naked]

David Johnson and Lev Bell are the next Marshall Faulk (Running and Receiving stats wise). Cooks? What?

I guess he means Brandin Cooks because there is no Cooks at RB.

 

[jeaton6]

I guess he means Brandin Cooks because there is no Cooks at RB.

Think MSUDaisy is a woman (at least I hope so with that name)  But no idea what your response actually means. Perhaps because I'm drunk (in China) but I've reread 4 times now and still not a clue what it means.

ETA : I actually think he means Dalvin. That would make sense. I guess.

 

[flysack]

I'm not drafting him at all because I believe he'll always be a rbbc guy, and more valuable on real football than fantasy. 

Agree with this except one thing: he has the ability to be a PPR machine at RB....if they use him right, if he adjusts to the NFL. I'm pretty confident about the later; he's been around the league since a little kid so it won't be too big for him. The former is concerning. Will the Panthers use him like a 1999 Marshall Faulk? Who knows. 

ETA: If he succeeds, I don't think you'll see it until 2018 or 2019, when Stewart ages out and CMAC goes full-time. 

 

[pantherclub]

Agree with this except one thing: he has the ability to be a PPR machine at RB....if they use him right, if he adjusts to the NFL. I'm pretty confident about the later; he's been around the league since a little kid so it won't be too big for him. The former is concerning. Will the Panthers use him like a 1999 Marshall Faulk? Who knows. 

ETA: If he succeeds, I don't think you'll see it until 2018 or 2019, when Stewart ages out and CMAC goes full-time. 

One thing is for sure is his floor for rec is probably around 40-50.  Possibly as high as 60 if Cam starts to just dump it off to him. 

 

[buck naked]

Think MSUDaisy is a woman (at least I hope so with that name)  But no idea what your response actually means. Perhaps because I'm drunk (in China) but I've reread 4 times now and still not a clue what it means.

ETA : I actually think he means Dalvin. That would make sense. I guess.

I'm an English and grammar sob, what can I say. His name is "Cook".

 

[Arodin]

I'm an proper English and grammar sob

Irony...

 

[Andrew74]

This is one of those players I'm terrified not to draft and terrified to draft. 

I hate guys like this. 

This.  Behavioral finance tells me that the pain of loss is more than the joy of gain, so I'll probably pass on him, but it is maddening.

 

[flysack]

This.  Behavioral finance tells me that the pain of loss is more than the joy of gain, so I'll probably pass on him, but it is maddening.

This is where I'm at. 

 

[dmac37]

This is one of those players I'm terrified not to draft and terrified to draft. 

I hate guys like this. 

This. Having the 1.1 my brain kept telling me just take Fournette and l kept trying to justify taking CMac but in the end I took LF. 

I think it will come down to if LF gets much work in the passing game, I'm betting that he will get enough receptions to go along with being a true workhorse back. With that said I think CMac can be an effective inside runner but I was a little scared off by Cam and Shula completely changing their philosophy and the drafting of Samuel so high.

 

[Snorkelson]

This. Having the 1.1 my brain kept telling me just take Fournette and l kept trying to justify taking CMac but in the end I took LF. 

I think it will come down to if LF gets much work in the passing game, I'm betting that he will get enough receptions to go along with being a true workhorse back. With that said I think CMac can be an effective inside runner but I was a little scared off by Cam and Shula completely changing their philosophy and the drafting of Samuel so high.

Offense before- drop back, buy some time, throw it to montrous plodding wr deep or fast guy with no hands deep, dump off to Olsen, run for cam, Stewart falls forward for 4 yds. Not much to work with imo. Has some diversity in his weapons now, not just huge catch radius. 

 

[buck naked]

This. Having the 1.1 my brain kept telling me just take Fournette and l kept trying to justify taking CMac but in the end I took LF. 

I think it will come down to if LF gets much work in the passing game, I'm betting that he will get enough receptions to go along with being a true workhorse back. With that said I think CMac can be an effective inside runner but I was a little scared off by Cam and Shula completely changing their philosophy and the drafting of Samuel so high.

I think fantasy players are placing way too much emphasis on Carolina's drafting of Samuel as it relates to McCaffrey. Carolina lost Ginn & Philly Brown, and Funchess has been slow to develop. Olsen is getting older, too. AND, Kelvin Benjamin will soon be moving to right tackle. Carolina needed another WR and talent for that offense.  There is ample room for targets for both McCaffrey and Samuel.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think fantasy players are placing way too much emphasis on Carolina's drafting of Samuel as it relates to McCaffrey. Carolina lost Ginn & Philly Brown, and Funchess has been slow to develop. Olsen is getting older, too. AND, Kelvin Benjamin will soon be moving to right tackle. Carolina needed another WR and talent for that offense.  There is ample room for targets for both McCaffrey and Samuel.

 

[flysack]

One thing is for sure is his floor for rec is probably around 40-50.  Possibly as high as 60 if Cam starts to just dump it off to him. 

80 ceiling, imo. 40 floor though. This is exactly why I hate guys like this. 

 

[petekrum]

Just curious. Why can't he be the next LeSean McCoy?

If you believe half of what you read in this thread you could convince yourself he could. Best of luck with that. As someone a lot smarter than us once said, "Things are seldom what they seem, skim milk masquerades as cream."

 

[buck naked]

If you believe half of what you read in this thread you could convince yourself he could. Best of luck with that. As someone a lot smarter than us once said, "Things are seldom what they seem, skim milk masquerades as cream."

I think you should change your focus now to argue with NFL GMs and talent evaluators, and not the posters who have liked him in this thread. We consistently read how many teams liked him going into the draft, and then he gets drafted 8th overall. 8TH. So this isn't just posters thinking he is "cream", but many NFL GMs and talent evaluators getting paid highly to do a great job and under high pressure. 

 

[petekrum]

I think you should change your focus now to argue with NFL GMs and talent evaluators, and not the posters who have liked him in this thread. We consistently read how many teams liked him going into the draft, and then he gets drafted 8th overall. 8TH. So this isn't just posters thinking he is "cream", but many NFL GMs and talent evaluators getting paid highly to do a great job and under high pressure. 

Well considering how many high picks those guys blow on a yearly basis I don't put much more stock in what they think. As I recall, Trent Richardson, Tim Couch, and Charles Rogers were all thought pretty highly of.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well considering how many high picks those guys blow on a yearly basis I don't put much more stock in what they think. As I recall, Trent Richardson, Tim Couch, and Charles Rogers were all thought pretty highly of.

Here are the RB who were drafted in the top 13 picks of the NFL draft from 1989-2014

Marshall Faulk HOF

Reggie Bush

Ronnie Brown

Barry Sanders HOF

Garrison Hearst

Trent Richardson

Edgerrin James

Cedric Benson

Darren McFadden

LaDainian Tomlinson HOF

Jamal Lewis

Ricky Williams

Cadillac Williams

Curtis Enis

Lawrence Phillips

Adrian Peterson

Thomas Jones

Tim Biakabutuka

Fred Taylor

C.J. Spiller

Sammie Smith

Jerome Bettis HOF

Ron Dayne

Marshawn Lynch

Warrick Dunn

Ryan Mathews

Knowshon Moreno

Jonathan Stewart

46.3% of these players performed as a top 12 RB as rookies.

The average performance for RB in this group is close to 40VBD for its first seven seasons

The average number of top 12 seasons for this group is 2.9 

While there certainly are some busts in here and players who didn't perform up to expectations, Overall this group of players is very strong and have more successful careers on average than RB selected later than the top 13 picks do.

Looking at this from a different perspective based on the positional order the players were drafted, McCaffrey was the second RB selected.

90% of these RB have provided some positive VBD over their career and has averaged 371 VBD over their careers. Thats outstanding.

47% of these RB have provided over 200 VBD careers. 37% of them provided over 400 VBD careers.

You are not going to find much better odds of a player having a successful career than this.

 

[Faust]

Kuechly: McCaffrey will be 'nightmare' in practice

 

[Johnny Bing]

.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

.

Why you gotta tease me like that?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

McCaffrey doesn't like being absent from OTAs due to a silly rule.

I just love the fact that he HATEs missing OTAs.  Man, I canNOT wait for training camp and actual McCaffrey updates.  I can't remember the last time I've been this excited about a rookie.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Here are the RB who were drafted in the top 13 picks of the NFL draft from 1989-2014

Marshall Faulk HOF

Reggie Bush

Ronnie Brown

Barry Sanders HOF

Garrison Hearst

Trent Richardson

Edgerrin James

Cedric Benson

Darren McFadden

LaDainian Tomlinson

Jamal Lewis

Ricky Williams

Cadillac Williams

Curtis Enis

Lawrence Phillips

Adrian Peterson

Thomas Jones

Tim Biakabutuka

Fred Taylor

C.J. Spiller

Sammie Smith

Jerome Bettis HOF

Ron Dayne

Marshawn Lynch

Warrick Dunn

Ryan Mathews

Knowshon Moreno

Jonathan Stewart

46.3% of these players performed as a top 12 RB as rookies.

The average performance for RB in this group is close to 40VBD for its first seven seasons

The average number of top 12 seasons for this group is 2.9 

While there certainly are some busts in here and players who didn't perform up to expectations, Overall this group of players is very strong and have more successful careers on average than RB selected later than the top 13 picks do.

Looking at this from a different perspective based on the positional order the players were drafted, McCaffrey was the second RB selected.

90% of these RB have provided some positive VBD over their career and has averaged 371 VBD over their careers. Thats outstanding.

47% of these RB have provided over 200 VBD careers. 37% of them provided over 400 VBD careers.

You are not going to find much better odds of a player having a successful career than this.

You forgot the hot next to tomlinson

 

[Bossman]

McCaffrey doesn't like being absent from OTAs due to a silly rule.

I just love the fact that he HATEs missing OTAs.  Man, I canNOT wait for training camp and actual McCaffrey updates.  I can't remember the last time I've been this excited about a rookie.

Reggie Bush

 

[Pwingles]

So, help me out here.. I can't figure out the current hype. I like the player a lot, but people seem to think this is a good spot for him. Cam is awful on these out of the backfield passes, short routes, and dump offs. Do we believe that since CMC is capable of catching whatever crazy number i read above (turns out, its was 80!...) that the ball will magically just get to him?

Wish this kid wasnt going to be wasted in CAR and couldve went somewhere else

 

[Anarchy99]

Here are the RB who were drafted in the top 13 picks of the NFL draft from 1989-2014

Marshall Faulk HOF

Reggie Bush

Ronnie Brown

Barry Sanders HOF

Garrison Hearst

Trent Richardson

Edgerrin James

Cedric Benson

Darren McFadden

LaDainian Tomlinson HOF

Jamal Lewis

Ricky Williams

Cadillac Williams

Curtis Enis

Lawrence Phillips

Adrian Peterson

Thomas Jones

Tim Biakabutuka

Fred Taylor

C.J. Spiller

Sammie Smith

Jerome Bettis HOF

Ron Dayne

Marshawn Lynch

Warrick Dunn

Ryan Mathews

Knowshon Moreno

Jonathan Stewart

46.3% of these players performed as a top 12 RB as rookies.

The average performance for RB in this group is close to 40VBD for its first seven seasons

The average number of top 12 seasons for this group is 2.9 

While there certainly are some busts in here and players who didn't perform up to expectations, Overall this group of players is very strong and have more successful careers on average than RB selected later than the top 13 picks do.

Looking at this from a different perspective based on the positional order the players were drafted, McCaffrey was the second RB selected.

90% of these RB have provided some positive VBD over their career and has averaged 371 VBD over their careers. Thats outstanding.

47% of these RB have provided over 200 VBD careers. 37% of them provided over 400 VBD careers.

You are not going to find much better odds of a player having a successful career than this.

I love you, man, but I can't fully get on board with this. IMO, you combined too many early years that then led to a faulty conclusion. IMO, the 1989-2001 draftees trump those from 2002 forward by leaps and bounds. Essentially, there is a phase shift difference after the Tomlinson draft. Looking at only Top 15 overall draft picks at RB since 2002 . . .

Player, Pick #, Total Years Plated, # Seasons as a fantasy RB1 (1 ppr scoring), Yearly Rankings

Draft Pick Player Years RB1
2005 2 Ronnie Brown 10 0 23 22 23 16 39 26 104 39 83 117
2005 4 Cedric Benson 8 0 93 43 42 43 20 17 26 68
2005 5 Cadillac Williams 7 0 21 36 79 72 25 33 66
2006 2 Reggie Bush 11 2 9 13 27 29 58 13 14 7 41 132 99
2007 7 Adrian Peterson 10 7 5 9 2 5 15 1 10 125 2 119
2007 12 Marshawn Lynch 9 4 16 13 45 31 6 5 5 4 63
2008 4 Darren McFadden 9 1 42 51 8 36 25 48 34 13 113
2008 13 Jonathan Stewart 9 0 32 15 44 18 51 92 23 23 27
2009 12 Knowshon Moreno 6 1 18 18 80 36 4 102
2010 9 C.J. Spiller 7 1 59 27 6 26 68 62 102
2010 12 Ryan Mathews 7 1 32 7 30 17 69 36 32
2012 3 Trent Richardson 3 1 8 31 35
2015 10 Todd Gurley 2 1 9 15
2015 15 Melvin Gordon 2 1 45 7
2016 4 Ezekiel Elliott 1 1 2


Those players produced 21 seasons as a fantasy RB1 out of 101 total seasons played (20.8%), which IMO as a Top 15 overall NFL draft pick which is far removed from some of the percentages you were citing (based on a decade of some really good backs being drafted, but too far in the past). So in the last 15 drafts, ADP and Lynch accounted for 11 of the 21 RB1 seasons by Top 15 drafted RBs (11 times out of 19 seasons = 57.9% of the seasons those two played). All the other backs combined for 10 RB1 seasons out of 12.2% of the seasons those backs played).

Count me in the category that Top 15 overall picks at RB haven't been great, and given their draft capital most of them have been disappointing picks. More on this in my next post coming up in a few minutes . . .

 

[gabes1919]

So, help me out here.. I can't figure out the current hype. I like the player a lot, but people seem to think this is a good spot for him. Cam is awful on these out of the backfield passes, short routes, and dump offs. Do we believe that since CMC is capable of catching whatever crazy number i read above (turns out, its was 80!...) that the ball will magically just get to him?

Wish this kid wasnt going to be wasted in CAR and couldve went somewhere else

Obviously part of why people love the landing spot is because CMC is kind of small so having a QB that you have to worry about keeping the ball will keep the defense on their toes and from pounding the life out of the RB on obvious run plays. And just because Cam hasn't done the dump off/backfield passes before doesn't mean he can't. He hasn't had a guy of CMC's caliber to do it with before and even if he can't do it at this moment, Cam is a very good player (as shown in his MVP year) and players of that caliber tend to be able to improve on their deficiencies. It should be a no brainer when you have weapons like CMC and Samuel

 

[Anarchy99]

Again using 1 PPR year end rankings, here is the landscape each year for where each RB was drafted for the past 15 seasons. Pretty self explanatory. Rank of each back 1-12 each year and the draft spot each guy was picked. U = Undrafted.

Rank 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RB1 U U 36 19 5 91 44 24 U 55 7 73 48 103 86
RB2 5 5 5 5 25 5 27 7 227 53 31 44 71 7 4
RB3 5 76 19 27 27 51 60 55 53 U U 53 44 U 48
RB4 42 5 101 36 91 30 154 60 73 60 55 12 12 31 53
RB5 36 23 74 4 65 7 7 65 7 130 12 12 U 97 71
RB6 19 51 4 49 36 5 5 30 24 12 9 71 61 27 103
RB7 51 19 91 51 U 65 89 5 55 12 173 2 73 44 15
RB8 23 9 43 100 60 109 91 25 4 154 3 61 233 86 28
RB9 58 5 51 25 2 23 7 7 44 24 73 24 97 10 U
RB10 2 4 100 7 56 U 51 U 250 25 65 7 55 181 150
RB11 76 36 76 91 100 60 24 73 23 44 44 U U U 149
RB12 9 75 7 189 30 4 109 44 25 100 24 U 53 28 65


Looking at those results overall, here is the breakdown by draft round:

Top 15 pick: 43 of 180 total RB season = 23.9%
1st Round: 74 = 41.1%
2nd Round: 44 = 24.4%
3rd Round: 25 = 13.9%
4th Round: 12 = 6.7%
5th Round: 4 = 2.2%
6th Round: 3 = 1.7%
7th Round: 3 = 1.7%
Undrafted: 15 = 8.3%

When there are almost as many guys taken in the 3rd round or later (or undrafted) as guys taken in the first round, that tells me that taking a RB as a Top 15 overall pick is probably not the best use of a draft pick. There were 74 seasons produced by Top 15 overall picks in the past 15 years. There were 62 seasons produced by guys taken in the 3rd round or later.

But looking at that distribution in the past 5 seasons, Top 15 overall picks accounted for 13 RB1 seasons compared to 27 RB1 seasons for RBs taken in the 3rd round or later. That only further exemplifies my point that NFL teams can get decent production by waiting on or finding a RB without having to invest and early pick on a running back.

 

[Faust]

Ron Rivera criticizes rule that prohibits rookies from practicing until school year ends

 

[Biabreakable]

Anarchy I think you bring up some good points that I tend to agree with.

My intent of using the large sample size was mostly to go back as far as I have been playing fantasy football. I wanted Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith in my sample.

Do I expect to see another RB have a career like Emmitt Smith? Not likely, but I still wanted this best case scenario example in the sample.

I used standard scoring for VBD not PPR so results there will vary somewhat.

I do think there was an era of higher quality RB prior to somewhere around year 2000 as you suggest and then somewhat of a derth in RB talent for a decade or so relatively. The reinforcement of the no chuck rule has steadily caused an increase in passing, especially short passing which in somewhat a replacement for plays that in earlier era would have been runs. Teams are using more RBBC again (If we go back to the 1970s there is more RBBC back then also) I think these patterns are somewhat cyclical. So if there is an influx of RB talent over the next 5-10 years maybe RB will perform similar to how they were in the 1990s again, maybe they won't but my sample includes this possibility. To me that is relevant when looking at the players as a whole on a large scale. The smaller the sample, the less likely it will represent the entire spectrum of possible outcomes, and reflect the careers of only a few players too much, because of that smaller sample.

As I mentioned in the linked post, the 2005 draft had 3 top 5 RB picks who pretty much all busted. That is an outlier that would be more greatly represented by a smaller sample size. You also have the two years where no RB were drafted in the first round (only two years this has happened in a long time). The NFL has been shifting towards drafting RB later and later each year for the most part since then (2005) and although there have been some 1st round RB picks again the last couple years, I don't think the NFLs philosophy about this has changed, or will change. I think the trend of trying to draft the RB later (than pre 2000 investment in them) is more likely to continue, but we have two years in a row now of RB being selected in the top 5, which means the more recent trend is up. I wasn't really trying to evaluate that though. It is looking at another angle of this.

You also make a good point about some players (Peterson and Lynch) accounting for a huge percentage of the top 12 seasons. The overall average of two top 12 seasons would be lower if not for these RB who do actually have 4 or more of these seasons bringing up that average.

There are certainly many more ways to parse and look at the data. I only considered a few. 

 

[Pwingles]

Obviously part of why people love the landing spot is because CMC is kind of small so having a QB that you have to worry about keeping the ball will keep the defense on their toes and from pounding the life out of the RB on obvious run plays. And just because Cam hasn't done the dump off/backfield passes before doesn't mean he can't. He hasn't had a guy of CMC's caliber to do it with before and even if he can't do it at this moment, Cam is a very good player (as shown in his MVP year) and players of that caliber tend to be able to improve on their deficiencies. It should be a no brainer when you have weapons like CMC and Samuel

I didnt say he hasnt ever done them. He has. He is bad at it.

There is a reason the panthers add/ or draft pass catchers the way they have been recently. Fast, or big. The reason is Cam isnt accurate, he also has no touch. So theyve been building around his deficiencies by giving him people he cant out throw, or that have a big catch radius. The guys theyve brought in that didnt fit that mold werent successful and arent there anymore or dont play much. They have been trying to put Cam in a situation to succeed by surrounding him with players that play to his strengths instead of making him do things he isnt confident in or not capable of. Which I totally agree with. I hate when teams go out and get a duel threat Qb and then try and make him do something else.

Either way, maybe that experiment is over. Maybe they are going to force him to be out of his comfort zone for the sake of the offense. When Cam isnt dropping dimes and running people over in the open field, they arent scoring a lot. So I understand why they went out and got two versatile guys in the draft, I am just not super confident they have the ability to utilize them well enough.

 

[CalBear]

I love you, man, but I can't fully get on board with this. IMO, you combined too many early years that then led to a faulty conclusion. IMO, the 1989-2001 draftees trump those from 2002 forward by leaps and bounds. Essentially, there is a phase shift difference after the Tomlinson draft. Looking at only Top 15 overall draft picks at RB since 2002 . . .

Player, Pick #, Total Years Plated, # Seasons as a fantasy RB1 (1 ppr scoring), Yearly Rankings

Draft Pick Player Years RB1
2005 2 Ronnie Brown 10 0 23 22 23 16 39 26 104 39 83 117
2005 4 Cedric Benson 8 0 93 43 42 43 20 17 26 68
2005 5 Cadillac Williams 7 0 21 36 79 72 25 33 66
2006 2 Reggie Bush 11 2 9 13 27 29 58 13 14 7 41 132 99
2007 7 Adrian Peterson 10 7 5 9 2 5 15 1 10 125 2 119
2007 12 Marshawn Lynch 9 4 16 13 45 31 6 5 5 4 63
2008 4 Darren McFadden 9 1 42 51 8 36 25 48 34 13 113
2008 13 Jonathan Stewart 9 0 32 15 44 18 51 92 23 23 27
2009 12 Knowshon Moreno 6 1 18 18 80 36 4 102
2010 9 C.J. Spiller 7 1 59 27 6 26 68 62 102
2010 12 Ryan Mathews 7 1 32 7 30 17 69 36 32
2012 3 Trent Richardson 3 1 8 31 35
2015 10 Todd Gurley 2 1 9 15
2015 15 Melvin Gordon 2 1 45 7
2016 4 Ezekiel Elliott 1 1 2


Those players produced 21 seasons as a fantasy RB1 out of 101 total seasons played (20.8%), which IMO as a Top 15 overall NFL draft pick which is far removed from some of the percentages you were citing (based on a decade of some really good backs being drafted, but too far in the past). So in the last 15 drafts, ADP and Lynch accounted for 11 of the 21 RB1 seasons by Top 15 drafted RBs (11 times out of 19 seasons = 57.9% of the seasons those two played). All the other backs combined for 10 RB1 seasons out of 12.2% of the seasons those backs played).

Count me in the category that Top 15 overall picks at RB haven't been great, and given their draft capital most of them have been disappointing picks. More on this in my next post coming up in a few minutes . . .

You have a pretty serious multiple endpoint problem here. Your endpoint cuts out the two most successful RBs of the past 20 years, and you count Zeke as having only one top season. Well, OK, Zeke has had only one top season so far, but it's reasonable to expect that he'll have a career at least as good as Lynch's, and possibly as good as Peterson's or Tomlinson's. So even excluding Faulk and Tomlinson, out of 15 picks you are looking at three massive studs vs. only one clear bust, with two other very promising young RBs in Gurly and Gordon. You could get five studs out of 15. 

I'd say top RB picks look like they're hitting at about the same rate as top picks at other positions.

 

[menobrown]

Obviously part of why people love the landing spot is because CMC is kind of small so having a QB that you have to worry about keeping the ball will keep the defense on their toes and from pounding the life out of the RB on obvious run plays.

I honestly had no idea that was part of the appeal.

So, help me out here.. I can't figure out the current hype. I like the player a lot, but people seem to think this is a good spot for him. Cam is awful on these out of the backfield passes, short routes, and dump offs.

I'm with you. I like the player a lot,drafted him some places, had him as a top 3 player, but none of that had to do with the landing spot which I deemed as extremely poor.  I'll add to that and say the landing spot for his rushing production is something I view as strong. Cam will gobble up some TD's but in general I think Cam will open up things for McCaffrey in the running game. But since I view McCaffrey's best skill set as what he offers in passing game as match-up issue out of backfield on the whole this is a poor fit to me.

I didnt say he hasnt ever done them. He has. He is bad at it.

I think Cam might be bad at short timing based throws or put another way it's not a strong skill of his but I would not label any NFL QB as bad in terms of dump offs. But the issue here is most classic drop back QB's who lack big time mobility are far more inclined to dump it off when they feel pressure because they can't escape the pocket. Someone as big and athletic as Cam will hold the ball longer and not be so inclined to dump it off because he's got ability to get out of the pocket. This of course is what they want Cam to do less but that's going to be the challenge. Goal for Carolina seems to be to take pressure of Cam and give him some shorter easier throws and have him run less but I don't think that is really playing into his strengths but it's interesting and to me will be one of the most interesting things to watch next season, the evolution of this offense.

 

[Anarchy99]

You have a pretty serious multiple endpoint problem here. Your endpoint cuts out the two most successful RBs of the past 20 years, and you count Zeke as having only one top season. Well, OK, Zeke has had only one top season so far, but it's reasonable to expect that he'll have a career at least as good as Lynch's, and possibly as good as Peterson's or Tomlinson's. So even excluding Faulk and Tomlinson, out of 15 picks you are looking at three massive studs vs. only one clear bust, with two other very promising young RBs in Gurly and Gordon. You could get five studs out of 15. 

I'd say top RB picks look like they're hitting at about the same rate as top picks at other positions.

In other threads I have pointed out that the hit rate on RB's has averaged typically about 2-3 per year based on having a Career AV of 50+. (More on that in a second). But if as you say, I am cutting out the endpoints of a 20 year stretch (in this case really 15 years), you are only reinforcing my point, not debunking it. If I am excluding guys at the ends of nearly a 20 year range, that means there were not a lot of successful players in the middle.

That being said, my 15 year cross section of RB1's included effectively all of Tomlinson's career and the primes of several other backs (who just happened to have been drafted before 2002). I didn't include the names in the yearly RB1 chart because it was the spot of the draft selection that was more important than the names, but there were plenty of early draft picks on that list.

Going back to the 2000 draft, here are all the drafted RB's that posted a Career AV of 50 or more. Granted, that is a different metric and has no real practical application to fantasy football, but it at least 

2000 Lewis, Alexander, TJones,
2001 LT, McAllister
2002 Portis, Westbrook
2003 McGahee, LJohnson
2004 SJackson, Turner
2005 Gore, Sproles
2006 MJD, Bush, DWilliams, Addai
2007 ADP, Lynch
2008 Forte, CJohnson, Rice, Charles
2009 McCoy (Moreno 33, RJennings 31, DBrown 25)
2010 None (RMathews 43, Spiller 34, Starks 27)
2011 Murray (Ingram 34, Ridley 24, Vereen 23)
2012 None (DMartin 33, LMiller 30, AMorris 30)
2013 None (Bell 43, Lacy 34, Bernard 29)
2014 None (Freeman 29, Hill 20, JWhite 13)
2015 None (DJohnson 24, Gordon 15, Gurley 12)
2016 None (Elliott 16, Howard 9, Booker 5)

(Only 2 guys that were UDFA that came into the league since 2000 met the 50 AV criteria: Fred Jackson 57 (2007) and Arian Foster 63 (2009).)

That's 25 players with a lot of the more recent guys too soon to evaluate. Of those 25 players (27 if we count the UDFAs), only 6 were Top 15 overall draft picks (Tomlinson, Peterson, JLewis, Lynch, TJones, and Bush). Early RB picks have had a better hit rate than other positions, but I would have to research more where higher ranking players were actually drafted to get a better sense of where the best places are to draft certain positions.

By comparison, here's the overall positional breakdown of Career AV across all positions in that same time span (players drafted from 2000 - 2016 with CareerAV of at least 50):

LB: 40 (13 of those were Top 15 picks out of 28 total selected as Top 15 picks = 46.4%)
OT: 34 (11 Top 15 picks out of 36 total selected = 30.6%)
DE: 33 (9 Top 15 picks out of 32 total selected = 28.1%)
DB: 33 (10 Top 15 picks out of 35 total selected = 28.6%)
WR: 29 (6 Top 15 picks out of 33 total selected = 18.2%) 
DT: 27 (9 Top 15 picks out of 32 total selected = 28.1)
RB: 25 (6 Top 15 picks out of 19 total selected = 31.6%)
QB: 23 (12 Top 15 picks out of 29 total selected = 41.4%)
G: 23 (0 Top 15 picks out of 4 total selected = 0%) 
C: 9 (0 Top 15 picks out of 0 total selected)
TE: 5 (0 Top 15 picks out of 5 total selected = 0%)
PK: 0 (0 Top 15 picks) (0 Top 15 picks out of 0 total selected)
P: 0 (0 Top 15 picks) (0 Top 15 picks out of 0 total selected)

Note that the players are listed by the position they were listed in when they were drafted, so if someone switched positions they would show up under their original position.

 

[nirad3]

Obviously part of why people love the landing spot is because CMC is kind of small so having a QB that you have to worry about keeping the ball will keep the defense on their toes and from pounding the life out of the RB on obvious run plays. And just because Cam hasn't done the dump off/backfield passes before doesn't mean he can't. He hasn't had a guy of CMC's caliber to do it with before and even if he can't do it at this moment, Cam is a very good player (as shown in his MVP year) and players of that caliber tend to be able to improve on their deficiencies. It should be a no brainer when you have weapons like CMC and Samuel

Yeah.  Fozzy Whittaker had 25 catches last year in super-spotty duty.  Fozzy Whittaker.  Edit:  And if I recall correctly, he got most of his PT in the first few games of the season... and saw a ton of targets.

CMC will have 40-45 by week 10.