RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (7 Viewers)

[Andy Dufresne]

What if he's basically Danny Woodhead? He clearly would have value, particularly in PPR leagues, but I'm not convinced he would have more value than, say, an every down back yet to be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

What if the moon was made of green cheese? 

 

[tombonneau]

What if he's basically Danny Woodhead? He clearly would have value, particularly in PPR leagues, but I'm not convinced he would have more value than, say, an every down back yet to be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Woodhead has been a top 10 RB in my ppr league so I'd gladly take that scenario. Which honestly is close to his floor. Depending on where Cook/Mixon land, I'll be happy with taking McCaff at 1.2 assuming Fournette goes 1.1.

 

[TheFanatic]

I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

 

[pantherclub]

I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

Cam has never had this type of option.  He is going to run less this season, just like he did the prior season.  If Cam starts to use him correctly I think fantasy wise he is going to be a producer.

 

[TheFanatic]

Cam has never had this type of option.  He is going to run less this season, just like he did the prior season.  If Cam starts to use him correctly I think fantasy wise he is going to be a producer.

I realize he's never had this type of option, but he's also had years to develop a flight reaction to pressure. It's going to be hard to change that instinct that he has honed for many years. Even though will have a great option to check down to, his first inclination will be to tuck and run and I don't see that changing for quite some time. Might be a situation where you wait a couple years and buy low on McAffery as Cam goes more and more to the chuck rather than tuck

 

[fruity pebbles]

I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

He only ran the ball 90 times last season. Rodgers was in the 70s, think Mariotta, Luck and Bortles were in the 60s. 

 

[TheFanatic]

He only ran the ball 90 times last season. Rodgers was in the 70s, think Mariotta, Luck and Bortles were in the 60s. 

Only? Rodgers is a terrible comparison. He is extremely mobile if he wants to be. If he only ran 20 more times than Big Ben or Brady, then we have something. And being 50% higher than Luck, Bortles and Mariotta is not a small leap

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I feel like this might actually be a bad landing spot for the next couple of years. Can and Stewart will vulture TDs. So that kinda sucks.

I don't think he was ever really going to be a high volume short yardage TD guy anyway.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Only? Rodgers is a terrible comparison. He is extremely mobile if he wants to be. If he only ran 20 more times than Big Ben or Brady, then we have something. And being 50% higher than Luck, Bortles and Mariotta is not a small leap

Its not a lot. We're talking less than two rushes per game and im willing to bet that drops even further given the beating he took this year and how unsuccessful his rushing attempts were. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Cam has never had this type of option.  He is going to run less this season, just like he did the prior season.  If Cam starts to use him correctly I think fantasy wise he is going to be a producer.

You went from "never" and "he is going to" to "if" in under 2 seconds.  That's the problem.  Any time you have to project a change there's more risk it won't happen.  That risk is zero in BAL, NYG, WAS, others.

He only ran the ball 90 times last season. Rodgers was in the 70s, think Mariotta, Luck and Bortles were in the 60s. 

And if he went to those teams the conversation would be how much they take away too.  The problem is that this all comes off the top of his production.  If he loses 10 carries and 20 receptions to a running QB, those 50 points come from his ceiling.  If I'm picking a top 3 rookie guy I want the highest ceiling I can get.  Floor is for suckers.

 

[TheFanatic]

Its not a lot. We're talking less than two rushes per game and im willing to bet that drops even further given the beating he took this year and how unsuccessful his rushing attempts were. 

2 rushes per game? 2 Rushes per game difference between one mobile QB and another? He was second in the league in rushing attempt by a QB to Tyrod Taylor (95 to 90). Russel Wilson is a distant third at 72. Rodgers only had 67. 

And let's face it. The guy has more than 5 years of over 100 rushing attempts per year. Last year he had a down year in attempts and effectiveness. Based on his career stats that's not a trend, that's the anomaly. Particularly when the year prior he had his career high in attempts at 132. Let me put it another way. Which one doesn't belong:

126

127

111

103

132

90

Maybe the coaching staff wants him to stay in the pocket more and McAffery is the guy to help him do that. But five years of being among the lead leaders in rushing attempts by a QB is going to be hard to change with a single player and one offseason where they barely practice. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

You went from "never" and "he is going to" to "if" in under 2 seconds.  That's the problem.  Any time you have to project a change there's more risk it won't happen.  That risk is zero in BAL, NYG, WAS, others.

And if he went to those teams the conversation would be how much they take away too.  The problem is that this all comes off the top of his production.  If he loses 10 carries and 20 receptions to a running QB, those 50 points come from his ceiling.  If I'm picking a top 3 rookie guy I want the highest ceiling I can get.  Floor is for suckers.

Thing is McCaffreys carries will be limited anyways. Hes not a 300 carry back and hes not a goalline plunger. So im not sure if Cam effects either. If it wasnt Cam taking some of that, it would be somebody else. I guess that does effect his ceiling but i think a lot of McCaffreys ceiling comes more from the variety of use particularly in return leagues. I expect to see him return punts and kicks, taking handoffs, checkdown out of the back field, lined up in the slot and even lined up out wide in different formations. Be surprised if he doesnt lead the team in receptions.

 

[fruity pebbles]

2 rushes per game? 2 Rushes per game difference between one mobile QB and another? He was second in the league in rushing attempt by a QB to Tyrod Taylor (95 to 90). Russel Wilson is a distant third at 72. Rodgers only had 67. 

And let's face it. The guy has more than 5 years of over 100 rushing attempts per year. Last year he had a down year in attempts and effectiveness. Based on his career stats that's not a trend, that's the anomaly. Particularly when the year prior he had his career high in attempts at 132. Let me put it another way. Which one doesn't belong:

126

127

111

103

132

90

Maybe the coaching staff wants him to stay in the pocket more and McAffery is the guy to help him do that. But five years of being among the lead leaders in rushing attempts by a QB is going to be hard to change with a single player and one offseason where they barely practice. 

QBs typically run the ball less as they get older and wear through the NFL pounding. I would say two rushes a game difference between Cam and Bortles or Luck isnt worth worrying about.

 

[massraider]

Yeah, bummer that Cam is gonna take all the goal line carries.

I was really hoping for some Leroy Hoard numbers from the 200 pound back.

 

[SayWhat?]

It's a bit mind boggling that people think McCaffrey doesn't have a high ceiling.  Sure it's possible a team invested the 8 overall in him to let him return punts/kicks and handle 10 offensive touches per game.  But I think it's more likely they look to get him 12-15 carries and 4-5 catches as a baseline, with upside for more as he proves he can handle that workload.  He's a weapon and a legit threat to throw up a 1,000/1,000 season at some point in his career.  And with his skill set, he's likely to be relevant in ppr leagues for a decade.

Granted, he's unlikely to turn in Bell/DJ numbers as I don't think he logs many 300+ carry seasons, but backs like that are few and far between anyways.

 

[steelers1080]

McCaffrey is Lesean McCoy.

• 40 time - 4.5 vs 4.48
  
• Weight - 198 vs 202
  
• Height - 5' 10" vs 5' 11"
  
• Vert - 29" vs 37.5"
  
• 3-cone - 6.82 vs 6.57
  
• 20-Yard Shuttle - 4.18 vs 4.22
  
• Broad Jump - 8' 11" vs 10' 1"
  
• Bench Reps - 17 vs 10
  

McCoy is the player on the left.

 

[JohnnyU]

stewart is off the panthers after this season. and you don't take a rb in the top 10 and not give him the ball.

I'm not saying McCaffrey won't have value, I'm just saying it might not be as much as it will be for a couple of years.

 

[TheFanatic]

It's a bit mind boggling that people think McCaffrey doesn't have a high ceiling.  Sure it's possible a team invested the 8 overall in him to let him return punts/kicks and handle 10 offensive touches per game.  But I think it's more likely they look to get him 12-15 carries and 4-5 catches as a baseline, with upside for more as he proves he can handle that workload.  He's a weapon and a legit threat to throw up a 1,000/1,000 season at some point in his career.  And with his skill set, he's likely to be relevant in ppr leagues for a decade.

Granted, he's unlikely to turn in Bell/DJ numbers as I don't think he logs many 300+ carry seasons, but backs like that are few and far between anyways.

This needs to stop. Teams reach all the time. Teams draft a guy suited for the 4-3 but play the 3-4. Being drafted high is no guarantee that he will be utilized properly. Tavon Austin anyone? Super speedster that half his catches his first 2 seasons were button hooks that amounted to no YAC because he can't outrun NFL Linebackers from stop. But, but, but, the Rams spent a really high pick on him....

Now that the first round is over, it doesn't matter what they spent on him. They spent more on Cam and Cam runs. He doesn't check down to the back. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Thing is McCaffreys carries will be limited anyways. Hes not a 300 carry back and hes not a goalline plunger. So im not sure if Cam effects either. If it wasnt Cam taking some of that, it would be somebody else. I guess that does effect his ceiling but i think a lot of McCaffreys ceiling comes more from the variety of use particularly in return leagues. I expect to see him return punts and kicks, taking handoffs, checkdown out of the back field, lined up in the slot and even lined up out wide in different formations. Be surprised if he doesnt lead the team in receptions.

I agree they will have him on a plan but I'm not worried about the plan limiting him.  I'm worried that Cam will take away from the plan.  It's the Andy Reid "we need to get him the ball more" syndrome.  "Well we were going to get him the ball but Cam kept it 4-5 times". 

 

[TheFanatic]

I agree they will have him on a plan but I'm not worried about the plan limiting him.  I'm worried that Cam will take away from the plan.  It's the Andy Reid "we need to get him the ball more" syndrome.  "Well we were going to get him the ball but Cam kept it 4-5 times". 

That's exactly it. The coaches may call for a play and have McAffery be the second option if #1 isn't open. But the coaches only call the play. Cam may see McAffery and also see a juicy gap and decide to get the yards himself. 

 

[Hankmoody]

That's exactly it. The coaches may call for a play and have McAffery be the second option if #1 isn't open. But the coaches only call the play. Cam may see McAffery and also see a juicy gap and decide to get the yards himself. 

Ironically, one probably created by McCaffrey himself.  He's such a weapon he loses touches for himself!

 

[SayWhat?]

This needs to stop. Teams reach all the time. Teams draft a guy suited for the 4-3 but play the 3-4. Being drafted high is no guarantee that he will be utilized properly. Tavon Austin anyone? Super speedster that half his catches his first 2 seasons were button hooks that amounted to no YAC because he can't outrun NFL Linebackers from stop. But, but, but, the Rams spent a really high pick on him....

Now that the first round is over, it doesn't matter what they spent on him. They spent more on Cam and Cam runs. He doesn't check down to the back. 

Fair enough, I'll stop.  Though I would say that 9 times out of 10 teams that invest a top 10 pick in a skill position player do so with the intent to utilize that skill position player.  You can certainly point to the Rams drafting Tavon Austin as support of your "draft position doesn't matter" stance, but it's absolutely a positive indicator for the Panthers intent to utilize him.  And it helps that they're not an inept organization like, ya know, the Rams.  Now whether or not McCaffrey succeeds, or the Panthers put him in a position to is certainly debatable. 

As for the "Cam runs argument"...he averaged 5.5 carries for 19 yards and 0.3 TD's per game last season upon returning from a concussion.  I think that's about what you'll see from him moving forward.  Not ideal, but not a death knell for a RB either.

 

[EBF]

Honestly pretty shocked that he ended up going this high. Don't really know what to make of him for a FF purposes. On the one hand, he has versatility and a very high draft pedigree. On the other hand, I've never really known what to make of him as an NFL commodity. I guess maybe a plus version of Danny Woodhead? Maybe in PPR he will be gold, but overall it's hard for me to see him blowing up and being a huge star in the NFL. Maybe I'm just underestimating his talent.

 

[BassNBrew]

Honestly pretty shocked that he ended up going this high. Don't really know what to make of him for a FF purposes. On the one hand, he has versatility and a very high draft pedigree. On the other hand, I've never really known what to make of him as an NFL commodity. I guess maybe a plus version of Danny Woodhead? Maybe in PPR he will be gold, but overall it's hard for me to see him blowing up and being a huge star in the NFL. Maybe I'm just underestimating his talent.

Just pretend he's Stewart and your problem is resolved.

 

[TheFanatic]

Fair enough, I'll stop.  Though I would say that 9 times out of 10 teams that invest a top 10 pick in a skill position player do so with the intent to utilize that skill position player.  You can certainly point to the Rams drafting Tavon Austin as support of your "draft position doesn't matter" stance, but it's absolutely a positive indicator for the Panthers intent to utilize him.  And it helps that they're not an inept organization like, ya know, the Rams.  Now whether or not McCaffrey succeeds, or the Panthers put him in a position to is certainly debatable. 

As for the "Cam runs argument"...he averaged 5.5 carries for 19 yards and 0.3 TD's per game last season upon returning from a concussion.  I think that's about what you'll see from him moving forward.  Not ideal, but not a death knell for a RB either.

5.5 carries is second to Tyrod Taylor who only had 5 more carries than Cam. #3 on the list, Russell Wilson was 18 carries behind Cam at 72. Even if he stays at 90, that's a lot of carries. Say McAffery would only get 2 passes of those 5.5 carries Cam has a game. Take any RB in the league and and knock off just 2 catches and the subsequent yards and TD's. How far does that RB drop? That's like dropping off 32 receptions (in a PPR that's monstrous), plus say he averages 6 yards a catch. That's 192 yards. And what if 2 of those 32 catches would've gone for TD's. I realize these are all make believe numbers. But if Cam simply scarfs up 2 catches a game that would've gone to McAffery that could be 32 receptions, 192 yards and 2 TD's over the course of a season. In a PPR that's a 50 point drop over the next guy. 

Can anyone honestly tell me that Cam is not capable of taking away 2 catches a game from McAffery? What was that argument, he only runs a couple more times a game than Rodgers? 2 more a game, over 16 games adds up. 

 

[Mingooch]

My prediction is 150-160 carries for about 700 yards, 50-55 catches for 450-550 yards and 4-6 TDs

 

[Faust]

When speaking about first-rounder Christian McCaffrey, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman compared him to Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin.

"It doesn’t happen very often," Gettleman said. "The best tackle-box runner I’ve ever seen is Curtis Martin out of Pitt. Christian is right there with him. Running in that tackle box takes unique vision and unique quickness, and he’s got it. Curtis had it, and he had a great career – a Hall of Fame career – and this kid’s got those kind of skills." That's a lofty comparison. Carolina has talked about "evolving" as an offense all offseason, trying to take some pressure off Cam Newton, and McCaffrey's unique skill set should allow it to happen.

 
 
Source: Profootballtalk on NBC Sports

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Honestly pretty shocked that he ended up going this high. Don't really know what to make of him for a FF purposes. On the one hand, he has versatility and a very high draft pedigree. On the other hand, I've never really known what to make of him as an NFL commodity. I guess maybe a plus version of Danny Woodhead? Maybe in PPR he will be gold, but overall it's hard for me to see him blowing up and being a huge star in the NFL. Maybe I'm just underestimating his talent.

I think you're underestimating his talent. He has elite vision and anticipation and he sets up his blockers better than anyone I've seen in a long time. Throw in his incredible work ethic, desire to be the best and elite athletic bloodlines... its a recipe for being a top 5 RB. His coach has said on a few occasions that CMC basically dominated every drill at Stanford, anytime they had internal competitions or isolated drills, CMC consistently won those. He also said last night that as a true freshman, the seniors on the team were mesmerized by him and went so far as to hype that to coach, something the coach says NEVER happens.... seniors hyped/excited about new Freshmen. 

 

[Slapdash]

So which rb could succeed in Carolina? Fournette would suck there, mccaffery will certainly suck there, wtf guys? Just pure hating on Carolinas offensive potential. Can no one else see mccaffery streaking down the field with a linebacker 5 yds behind him and cam launching it deep? Yes he may only get 5 rushing tds, but he could get 6-7 rec tds as well. Stewart won't be there forever, and even if they add a 2 down banger next year his floor appears pretty safe. 

I see Cam getting hit waiting on this play to develop

 

[humpback]

5.5 carries is second to Tyrod Taylor who only had 5 more carries than Cam. #3 on the list, Russell Wilson was 18 carries behind Cam at 72. Even if he stays at 90, that's a lot of carries. Say McAffery would only get 2 passes of those 5.5 carries Cam has a game. Take any RB in the league and and knock off just 2 catches and the subsequent yards and TD's. How far does that RB drop? That's like dropping off 32 receptions (in a PPR that's monstrous), plus say he averages 6 yards a catch. That's 192 yards. And what if 2 of those 32 catches would've gone for TD's. I realize these are all make believe numbers. But if Cam simply scarfs up 2 catches a game that would've gone to McAffery that could be 32 receptions, 192 yards and 2 TD's over the course of a season. In a PPR that's a 50 point drop over the next guy. 

Can anyone honestly tell me that Cam is not capable of taking away 2 catches a game from McAffery? What was that argument, he only runs a couple more times a game than Rodgers? 2 more a game, over 16 games adds up. 

There's the problem. First of all it's silly to take away all of Cam's carries since all QBs run some, but it's even sillier to think that if he didn't run at all, 36% of those plays would be completions to 1 specific player.

Cam will limit his upside some, I just don't think it's nearly as much as some of you are suggesting. No matter where he went, we'd be questioning how much short-yardage work he'd get (which is a legitimate concern).

 

[TheFanatic]

There's the problem. First of all it's silly to take away all of Cam's carries since all QBs run some, but it's even sillier to think that if he didn't run at all, 36% of those plays would be completions to 1 specific player.

Cam will limit his upside some, I just don't think it's nearly as much as some of you are suggesting. No matter where he went, we'd be questioning how much short-yardage work he'd get (which is a legitimate concern).

That's why I bolded the "These are all make believe numbers." It was just an example to show that just 2 extra carries a game (or two less depending on your POV) can impact a player.

I'll say this one more time. Will Cam Newton's style of play limit CMC in any way? Would you expect CMC to have a better fantasy career if he were drafted by the Colts than the Panthers?

If you answered no to either of those questions then you are being dishonest with yourself. 

The point I'm making is not in any way meant to besmirch Cam or CMC. I just think CMC would put up more fantasy points on a different team. 

 

[humpback]

That's why I bolded the "These are all make believe numbers." It was just an example to show that just 2 extra carries a game (or two less depending on your POV) can impact a player.

I'll say this one more time. Will Cam Newton's style of play limit CMC in any way? Would you expect CMC to have a better fantasy career if he were drafted by the Colts than the Panthers?

If you answered no to either of those questions then you are being dishonest with yourself. 

The point I'm making is not in any way meant to besmirch Cam or CMC. I just think CMC would put up more fantasy points on a different team. 

Well, you said 2 extra receptions per game not carries (which makes a big difference in PPR). Of course it can impact a player, but you still pulled those numbers out of thin air- he wouldn't get 2 more receptions per game if his QB ran 5.5 less times per game, that's unrealistic.

I already answered the first question- yes, it will limit him some, just not nearly as much as many think IMO. I don't see Cam running like he did as a rookie again, and the difference between what he does on the ground and other places mentioned (Luck, Rodgers) isn't huge anymore.

There are 32 NFL teams- I'd agree that this isn't the absolute best situation for him, but it isn't close to the worst, either. He'd put up more fantasy points on some teams, less on others.

 

[dmac37]

When speaking about first-rounder Christian McCaffrey, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman compared him to Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin.

"It doesn’t happen very often," Gettleman said. "The best tackle-box runner I’ve ever seen is Curtis Martin out of Pitt. Christian is right there with him. Running in that tackle box takes unique vision and unique quickness, and he’s got it. Curtis had it, and he had a great career – a Hall of Fame career – and this kid’s got those kind of skills." That's a lofty comparison. Carolina has talked about "evolving" as an offense all offseason, trying to take some pressure off Cam Newton, and McCaffrey's unique skill set should allow it to happen.

 
 
Source: Profootballtalk on NBC Sports

With the 1.1 pick I have McCaffrey as the top option right "now", WR not an option as I need RB's. With the GM pointing out his inside running I think they will give him enough carries to go along with receptions. He has the talent to run inside and he seems to have that Barry Sanders knack of being able to avoid big hits.

I think he has the better combo of high floor and high ceiling compared to Fournette in PPR but still not sure I'm ready to move him ahead of Fournette..

 

[TheFanatic]

Well, you said 2 extra receptions per game not carries (which makes a big difference in PPR). Of course it can impact a player, but you still pulled those numbers out of thin air- he wouldn't get 2 more receptions per game if his QB ran 5.5 less times per game, that's unrealistic.

I already answered the first question- yes, it will limit him some, just not nearly as much as many think IMO. I don't see Cam running like he did as a rookie again, and the difference between what he does on the ground and other places mentioned (Luck, Rodgers) isn't huge anymore.

There are 32 NFL teams- I'd agree that this isn't the absolute best situation for him, but it isn't close to the worst, either. He'd put up more fantasy points on some teams, less on others.

Honestly, for me this is about the worst place for him in my opinion. Take out teams that have established studs like Pittsburgh and Arizona and only go with teams with legit needs at RB and I feel like any one of them would be a better fit. Indy and Denver being two of them. Green Bay being a third. 

 

[pantherclub]

Worst place?   Going to one of the best quarterbacks in the league?   Jesus dude.    

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Honestly, for me this is about the worst place for him in my opinion. Take out teams that have established studs like Pittsburgh and Arizona and only go with teams with legit needs at RB and I feel like any one of them would be a better fit. Indy and Denver being two of them. Green Bay being a third. 

You really are a fanatic.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Can anyone honestly tell me that Cam is not capable of taking away 2 catches a game from McAffery? What was that argument, he only runs a couple more times a game than Rodgers? 2 more a game, over 16 games adds up. 

In regards to Cam's running, last year he got beat up running the ball. It is pretty apparent he must change his style if he is going to last in this league. Even RR acknowledged that Cam needs to change his style. Whether or not he can make that transition is a worthy debatable, but my expectations are that Cam will run less moving forward. The biggest threat to CMac's value is Cam vulturing TDs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Worst place?   Going to one of the best quarterbacks in the league?   Jesus dude.    

For fantasy purposes, I would agree that CAR was one of the worst landing spots. Here is a breakdown of NFL team RB production for 0 ppr and 1 ppr leagues. The numbers listed are total fantasy points scored over the past 3 NFL seasons.

0 1
NOS 1103 NOS 1482
ATL 1071 ATL 1362
DAL 1035 NEP 1302
NEP 1035 PHI 1302
PHI 1023 PIT 1291
PIT 1021 BUF 1249
BUF 1001 DAL 1249
CIN 963 BAL 1215
SEA 916 DET 1199
KCC 906 CIN 1194
WAS 904 OAK 1188
BAL 894 MIN 1142
MIN 893 WAS 1137
OAK 891 LAC 1124
DEN 886 NYJ 1122
HOU 886 CHI 1115
NYJ 880 SEA 1105
MIA 874 KCC 1101
DET 862 MIA 1097
GBP 860 HOU 1095
CHI 833 GBP 1090
LAC 831 DEN 1070
NYG 825 NYG 1065
ARI 804 IND 1028
TEN 802 TBB 1019
TBB 797 TEN 1015
IND 790 CLE 993
CLE 780 ARI 959
SFO 754 SFO 952
CAR 733 LAR 922
LAR 711 CAR 880
JAX 643 JAX 862


The Panthers haven't utilized their running backs anywhere near as much as other teams have over the last few years, and Cam takes away carries and goal line TD's. The RB usage will go up with McCaffrey coming to town, but IMO it's unlikely that Cam is going to change how he operates. Maybe McCaffrey will have the same impact as David Johnson did with the Cardinals, but the Panthers would have to remap the offense to flow through McCaffery. Most teams don't have a QB that averages 600 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD a season for a RB to contend with.

 

[TheFanatic]

Worst place?   Going to one of the best quarterbacks in the league?   Jesus dude.    

Maybe you should respond to Anarchy99's post. Michael Vick was one of the best fantasy QB's in the league. I don't remember his RB's tearing it up. Running QB's have an impact on RB's. It's not that hard. This is not an indictment of Cam or CMC. You need to take the homer glasses off and realize that. I'm not ripping either guy. But their styles are going to clash. Doesn't diminish either of them

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's why I bolded the "These are all make believe numbers." It was just an example to show that just 2 extra carries a game (or two less depending on your POV) can impact a player.

I'll say this one more time. Will Cam Newton's style of play limit CMC in any way? Would you expect CMC to have a better fantasy career if he were drafted by the Colts than the Panthers?

If you answered no to either of those questions then you are being dishonest with yourself. 

The point I'm making is not in any way meant to besmirch Cam or CMC. I just think CMC would put up more fantasy points on a different team. 

Andrew Luck runs about 2-4 less times a game than Newton depending on which seasons we look at.

I really think you are over-exaggerating the impact a bit.

As to the question you ask us to ponder but expect everyone else to answer the way you would less they be "dishonest" - my answer is "I'm really not sure". The Colts organization is a dumpster fire that's saved only be Andrew Luck. They do not seem to be concerned with ever addressing their offensive line. The Colts also play in a division with one of the best defenses in the league and two up and coming ones. The Panthers face three fairly poor defenses six times a season (Of course this can change over time).

I have the 1.01 is one league and I'm still leaning towards Fournette  - but I do not see Carolina as a bad landing spot at all.

 

[humpback]

The Panthers haven't utilized their running backs anywhere near as much as other teams have over the last few years, and Cam takes away carries and goal line TD's. The RB usage will go up with McCaffrey coming to town, but IMO it's unlikely that Cam is going to change how he operates. Maybe McCaffrey will have the same impact as David Johnson did with the Cardinals, but the Panthers would have to remap the offense to flow through McCaffery. Most teams don't have a QB that averages 600 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD a season for a RB to contend with.

So you don't think they're going to change anything about their offense to accommodate the guy they just spent the #8 overall pick on? It would be foolish if they didn't make a few changes at least.

Also, Cam's rushing numbers are skewed higher because of his first 2 years in the league- I'd expect something closer to 450 yds and 5 TDs a season going forward.

 

[humpback]

Maybe you should respond to Anarchy99's post. Michael Vick was one of the best fantasy QB's in the league. I don't remember his RB's tearing it up. Running QB's have an impact on RB's. It's not that hard. This is not an indictment of Cam or CMC. You need to take the homer glasses off and realize that. I'm not ripping either guy. But their styles are going to clash. Doesn't diminish either of them

Your memory sucks because Warrick Dunn and LeSean McCoy certainly put up some numbers with Vick.

 

[TheFanatic]

So you don't think they're going to change anything about their offense to accommodate the guy they just spent the #8 overall pick on? It would be foolish if they didn't make a few changes at least.

Also, Cam's rushing numbers are skewed higher because of his first 2 years in the league- I'd expect something closer to 450 yds and 5 TDs a season going forward.

Cam averages 114 carries a year for his career.

Take out the first 2 years and he averages 109 carries

His most rushing attempts were not in years 1 or 2, but 2 years ago. 

 

[TheFanatic]

Your memory sucks because Warrick Dunn and LeSean McCoy certainly put up some numbers with Vick.

Yes, Dunn had better years than I remember.

Vick with McCoy was not nearly the same. He wasn't nearly as mobile as Cam at that point. He had one year with 100 carries followed by 76, 62, 36, 26 and 20. Can't say that McCoy thrived next to an uber mobile QB. His best years came as Vick stopped running. McCoy had 1600 rushing yards the year Vick rushed 36 times. 

 

[TheFanatic]

So you don't think they're going to change anything about their offense to accommodate the guy they just spent the #8 overall pick on? It would be foolish if they didn't make a few changes at least.

And you expect the Panthers to change how Cam Newton plays, who was drafted 1st overall, for a guy drafted 8th? Yeah, that's sound logic.

 

[Anarchy99]

So you don't think they're going to change anything about their offense to accommodate the guy they just spent the #8 overall pick on? It would be foolish if they didn't make a few changes at least.

Also, Cam's rushing numbers are skewed higher because of his first 2 years in the league- I'd expect something closer to 450 yds and 5 TDs a season going forward.

You missed the part where I said "The RB usage will go up with McCaffrey coming to town." Yes, CAR will put up better numbers by trying to address a problem area. However, IMO, it would have been better for McCaffery to be in a spot where he slotted in and could capture or replace existing production instead of going somewhere where they will have to create production where it didn't exist.

Put a different way, Zeke Elliott going to DAL and taking the numbers Murray had was a fantasy dream straight from a feel good Disney movie. We haven't seen that type of RB productivity in CAR in recent seasons. 

Maybe the Panthers do reshape their entire offense to run through McCaffery. I don't expect that to happen, but he should do all right in CAR. I happen to think there were better landing spots for him than the Panthers. And just because he was the 8th pick in the draft does not mean he will be anointed as a superstar.

Todd Gurley, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams were all Top 10 picks. In fact, they were 7 of the 10 backs that were Top 10 picks since 2005. None of those guys really panned out or turned into home runs (although the jury is still out on Gurley). The other 3 were Elliott, ADP, and Reggie Bush.

I really don't have much of an informed opinion based on what I have seen, as I have only seen highlights of McCaffery and I don't often get to watch the Panthers. My comments were based mostly on looking solely on the numbers.

 

[Hankmoody]

Your memory sucks because Warrick Dunn and LeSean McCoy certainly put up some numbers with Vick.

But that's just it - those offenses were designed for those guys, in Philly's case before McCoy even got there it was fit to Westbrook.  Carolina needs to adjust theirs to take full advantage of CMc's skill set.  That's a huge question mark.  A whole ton of things need to fall in place for him to be maximized.  Not saying it can't happen, but it's a much bigger risk than if it didn't have to happen.  Had he gone to say GBP this would be much more of a plug and play.  He'd be an auto-1.01 in that case.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

For fantasy purposes, I would agree that CAR was one of the worst landing spots. Here is a breakdown of NFL team RB production for 0 ppr and 1 ppr leagues. The numbers listed are total fantasy points scored over the past 3 NFL seasons.

0 1
NOS 1103 NOS 1482
ATL 1071 ATL 1362
DAL 1035 NEP 1302
NEP 1035 PHI 1302
PHI 1023 PIT 1291
PIT 1021 BUF 1249
BUF 1001 DAL 1249
CIN 963 BAL 1215
SEA 916 DET 1199
KCC 906 CIN 1194
WAS 904 OAK 1188
BAL 894 MIN 1142
MIN 893 WAS 1137
OAK 891 LAC 1124
DEN 886 NYJ 1122
HOU 886 CHI 1115
NYJ 880 SEA 1105
MIA 874 KCC 1101
DET 862 MIA 1097
GBP 860 HOU 1095
CHI 833 GBP 1090
LAC 831 DEN 1070
NYG 825 NYG 1065
ARI 804 IND 1028
TEN 802 TBB 1019
TBB 797 TEN 1015
IND 790 CLE 993
CLE 780 ARI 959
SFO 754 SFO 952
CAR 733 LAR 922
LAR 711 CAR 880
JAX 643 JAX 862


The Panthers haven't utilized their running backs anywhere near as much as other teams have over the last few years, and Cam takes away carries and goal line TD's. The RB usage will go up with McCaffrey coming to town, but IMO it's unlikely that Cam is going to change how he operates. Maybe McCaffrey will have the same impact as David Johnson did with the Cardinals, but the Panthers would have to remap the offense to flow through McCaffery. Most teams don't have a QB that averages 600 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD a season for a RB to contend with.

I would not go so far as to say these numbers are irrelevant - but sometimes you need to consider personnel when looking at historical usage patterns. Outside of a under-achieving often banged up Jonathan Stewart how many of the RBs that received touches in Carolina during this 3 year time frame can you name? Bearing in mind that Stewart missed 9 full games (and parts of others) during this span.

 

[pantherclub]

Plus why are you treating Cmac as a rb?  He is going to see more time in the slot and in motion I would guess.  

 

[gianmarco]

NO at the top of both lists is amazing to me.