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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Did you cut this off prior to week 17? He's RB 16 in PPG in .5 PPR where return yards are awarded.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
No, it includes all 17 weeks but he only scored 9 points in week 17 so it wouldn’t change his rank much.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
If you are talking LLD that's .75 PPR that's why my report is different. He's RB10 in total points and RB14 in PPG there, that makes sense.
DarkKnightsGuru
Footballguy
Hes only going to get better next year.. He will be used like Kamara.. I can see about 10-12 carries and 8 targets a game .. So 18 touches
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
JohnnyU
Footballguy
For my PPR leagues the cutoff is week 13 and he ranked anywhere from #9 to #12 RB.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
So the takeaway is that CMC was a RB1 in his rookie year. He is only going to get better!
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think he has the frame to add much functional weight - he's shredded. I think his improvement, if it comes, will be in the form of patience. We can hope the game slows down for him some.Dr. Octopus said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He met my expectations of performing as a top 12 RB already. I wasn't sure if he would do that his rookie year or not, so overall he is on or ahead of schedule in my view.
I expect him to improve as well. Just don't see him becoming a 350+ touch player is all.
I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 150 rushing attempts next year though if he gets better in that area.
A thing that is an ongoing concern though is the offensive line. The Kalil brothers are really not that good and I'm not sure if they are going to upgrade their line any time soon although I do think they need to.
Love how the members of the CMC Support Group have been reassuring themselves about how much better CMC has been looking recently and what a bright future he has.
He still looks small, not very powerful and certainly not as explosive as, say, Kamara.
He's still basically a Danny Woodhead-type, which is fine in PPR, not so fine in non-PPR.
Also, be careful what you wish for in terms of the demise of Jonathan Stewart. J-Stew was mostly terrible last year and they still gave him a ton of carries. If they cut him and get in someone better, that may not be a good thing for CMC.
It also may not be a good thing for CMC if they hire Norv, who loves to have a bellcow back to pound it out with, and loves to have his QB throw downfield, as opposed to dumping it off to scatbacks all the time.
If I owned CMC in any dynasty leagues (and I do not, having correctly forecast what kind of a player he'd be in the NFL), I'd be selling him now.
He still looks small, not very powerful and certainly not as explosive as, say, Kamara.
He's still basically a Danny Woodhead-type, which is fine in PPR, not so fine in non-PPR.
Also, be careful what you wish for in terms of the demise of Jonathan Stewart. J-Stew was mostly terrible last year and they still gave him a ton of carries. If they cut him and get in someone better, that may not be a good thing for CMC.
It also may not be a good thing for CMC if they hire Norv, who loves to have a bellcow back to pound it out with, and loves to have his QB throw downfield, as opposed to dumping it off to scatbacks all the time.
If I owned CMC in any dynasty leagues (and I do not, having correctly forecast what kind of a player he'd be in the NFL), I'd be selling him now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think most people always thought he'd be much more valuable in ppr leagues than non-PPR leagues.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
McCaffrey finished 10th among all RBs (and 14th in ppg) last season and you think avoiding him was a good thing?
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A fallacy, at least when it comes to fantasy football. Many of these receiving backs hit their career high in receptions in their first year or two getting good playing time.Rhythmdoctor said:
Reggie Bush, the player he is probably most similar to, caught 88 balls as a rookie and then never caught 80+ again the rest of his career, and only caught 70+ once.
Gawain
Footballguy
Are there enough of them to draw a meaningful sample size (actual question, not being snide)?
My issue is who are his comps? Is it a 1995 Adrian Murrell? Is it a 2004 Brian Westbrook? Or perhaps a 1999 Warrick Dunn?
Looking at the guys above, their receptions started dropping when they started getting the lion's share of the carries. Perhaps that's what is in store for CMC?
Even Bush ended up as a lead back for three years. I don't think that the CMC supporters want just a Bushesque career from CMC, but it's tough to find someone who went on to bust after a season like CMC just had.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I doubt norv turner went into his interview, presented an offense that would phase out last years top 10 pick, and then they gave him the job
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
As far as receptions go...LT's best receiving year was his third, Jamaal Charles best was his fifth, Leveon Bell's was his fifth, Tiki Barber's was his fifth, Ronnie Harmon's was his seventh, Marshall Faulk's was his sixth, Larry Centers was his fifth, Priest Holmes was his sixth, Brian Westbrook's was his sixth, Roger Craig's was his third, Warrick Dunn's was his fourth, Matt Forte's was his seventh and Darren Sproles was his sixth...not saying McCaffrey is as good as any of these guys but they are some top receiving backs that I thought of and none of them had their best receiving years in their first two years...
Here is a list of the All-Time Leaders in RB receptions:
http://www.footballperspective.com/matt-forte-darren-sproles-reggie-bush-and-career-leaders-in-rb-receptions/
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You sure rely stoutly on this extremely questionable assumption as a basis for your position.
.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
It’s a fallacy that rookies get better? Nah, I’m not buying that. I’d say the majority of rookies in any sport DO get better in subsequent years.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Unless your name is Trent Richardson, Aliki Smith, Maurice Clarett, Montee Ball, or Jamarcus Russell.
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I would agree but in a Tavon Austin way, neither in a way befitting the 8th pick of the draft.
I'd expect most rookies to improve but a lot of RB's in particular regress in year two.
Boston
Footballguy
MCCaffrey and it is not even close...it is one thing If you are talking about getting an Elliott or a Barkley but if you get McCaffrey’s production out of 1.6 you would be ecstatic...why screw around with that...
I got league where someone dealt CMC for pick 8 a few days ago. I have pick 6 and I was never offered the trade but when I saw it I had to ask myself if I would have given pick 6 if asked. My feeling was I was glad I was not offered the trade because that a price point I'd have thought he is value and I should make the trade but I would not have really wanted to trade 6 for CMC. I would add if you need a RB, if that team of mine needed a RB, I'd have been happier about the thought of using pick on him. Deep RB draft again, I might end up liking a RB I can get at pick 6 more, but if I had a need I'd bag up
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Guy is a top 3 pick in a deep draft, puts up an rb1/rb2 season as a rookie, and now we’re gonna trade him for the 1.06. Seems crazy, although your reasoning is not
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I had hopes he would have seen a bit more use. Another two or three runs a game and another catch or two. My league also awards points for kick and punt returns to the individual player and I thought we might see a few more opportunities there. Still, if he can give essentially this year's production for another 8 years he will have proven to be a dynasty value, and frankly, given his use patterns he can potentially last that long, or a bit longer. Nothing wrong with solid, if unspectacular production.
Of course I am in a 14 team PPR league. My impressions and hopes may not translate to other situations.
Of course I am in a 14 team PPR league. My impressions and hopes may not translate to other situations.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Here are all the RBs I could think of that have had 80+ receptions in a season, and the number of times they repeated that feat the rest of their career.
Marshall Faulk: 4
Larry Centers: 3
Le'Veon Bell: 1
Darren Sproles: 1
Roger Craig: 1
Matt Forte: 0
Ladainian Tomlinson: 0
Steven Jackson: 0
Danny Woodhead: 0
Ronnie Harmon: 0
Eric Metcalf: 0
Brian Westbrook: 0
Keith Byars: 0
Charlie Garner: 0
Reggie Bush: 0
Theo Riddick: 0
If we dropped the cutoff to 78 it would add Shady McCoy, Ray Rice, and Pierre Thomas, all three of which likewise repeated that feat 0 times.
Not exactly the most compelling list. 11 of 16 never again repeated the feat, and 14 of 16 never did it more than once. No one in the last 15 years has repeated the feat multiple times.
So you really, really have to believe McCaffrey is going to develope into a good runner, and potentially 3-down back, to maintain this kind of value. Because more likely than not, the receptions are not going to hold steady at this rate or, if many of the guys above are any indication, anywhere near it. A lot of these guys never or rarely even came within 40% of the receptions they had in their 80+ season.
Marshall Faulk: 4
Larry Centers: 3
Le'Veon Bell: 1
Darren Sproles: 1
Roger Craig: 1
Matt Forte: 0
Ladainian Tomlinson: 0
Steven Jackson: 0
Danny Woodhead: 0
Ronnie Harmon: 0
Eric Metcalf: 0
Brian Westbrook: 0
Keith Byars: 0
Charlie Garner: 0
Reggie Bush: 0
Theo Riddick: 0
If we dropped the cutoff to 78 it would add Shady McCoy, Ray Rice, and Pierre Thomas, all three of which likewise repeated that feat 0 times.
Not exactly the most compelling list. 11 of 16 never again repeated the feat, and 14 of 16 never did it more than once. No one in the last 15 years has repeated the feat multiple times.
So you really, really have to believe McCaffrey is going to develope into a good runner, and potentially 3-down back, to maintain this kind of value. Because more likely than not, the receptions are not going to hold steady at this rate or, if many of the guys above are any indication, anywhere near it. A lot of these guys never or rarely even came within 40% of the receptions they had in their 80+ season.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
thing with CMC is that the receptions IS his game, the rushing, not so much, So I think that he can hit 70 plus again, and likely will, however I don't think his rushing totals will ever be that great, breaking 700 yards rushing would be a monster year for him in the NFL I'm thinking
Gawain
Footballguy
So of the four running backs to have had 80 receptions before they were 23, two happened in 2016, 1 is Leveon Bell and 1 is Reggie Bush. Not sure I can draw too much from that.
I think it is also worth remembering the special circumstances that contributed to CMC's high reception total this year.
Cam's favorite target, Greg Olsen, was injured for most of the year.
Cam's #1 WR, Kelvin Benjamin, was traded halfway through the year.
Aside from Funchess, who has his moments but is certainly not a top player, Cam had scrubs like Russell Shepard, Damiere Byrd and Brenton Bersin getting significant snaps at WR, and a backup TE in Ed Dickson getting a lot of snaps at TE.
Cam almost HAD to dump it off to CMC a lot because the other options were so unappealing.
I would suggest that it is unlikely that Cam's going to be so short-handed in terms of weapons next year, I'm sure they bring in better WRs, whether in terms of FA or the draft.
And therefore when we are sitting here next year I would be very unsurprised if CMC's receptions total is lower next year than it was this year. He's going to catch lots of balls, because he is the new Danny Woodhead, just not so many as this year.
Cam's favorite target, Greg Olsen, was injured for most of the year.
Cam's #1 WR, Kelvin Benjamin, was traded halfway through the year.
Aside from Funchess, who has his moments but is certainly not a top player, Cam had scrubs like Russell Shepard, Damiere Byrd and Brenton Bersin getting significant snaps at WR, and a backup TE in Ed Dickson getting a lot of snaps at TE.
Cam almost HAD to dump it off to CMC a lot because the other options were so unappealing.
I would suggest that it is unlikely that Cam's going to be so short-handed in terms of weapons next year, I'm sure they bring in better WRs, whether in terms of FA or the draft.
And therefore when we are sitting here next year I would be very unsurprised if CMC's receptions total is lower next year than it was this year. He's going to catch lots of balls, because he is the new Danny Woodhead, just not so many as this year.
DarkKnightsGuru
Footballguy
Agreed but I expect his Ypc and Ypc to get a boost.. He will break some , have more seam routes and bigger plays I see his tds going up , his carries going up , his ypc going up
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Smith was due to injury, the rest of them didn’t put in the work. CMC is never going to be accused of that.
People act like woodhead is terrible- he’s put up some solid seasons in ppr finishing top 5 at one point iirc. He’s since been hampered by injuries. There’s no guarantee someone at 205 vs 215 vs 230 is or isn’t going to get injured. At least that’s my opinion. CMC made it through the season healthy and without a drop off- he was pretty consistent.
Norv turner likes to feature a back, so the panthers will let him squander their top 10 rb pick? Not sure I’m buying this theory. Let’s see what happens on the depth chart- if they make a fa splash (like who? Ivory?) or draft a guy in rd 2 I’ll worry. If it’s simply the current guys with some back end shuffle I’m not too worried. He won’t be a transcendent 2000 yd rusher, but I expect a solid Fantasy contributor for the coming years.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
McCaffrey will never be a 1000 rusher, but he is what you know he is, a high volume reception guy that will score 5-9 tds per year.
Part of why I didn’t think he was worth the 8th pick.CMC 2017:
435 yards rushing and 2 TDs, 80 receptions for 651 yards and 5 TDs
Danny Woodhead 2015:
336 yards rushing and 3 TDs, 80 receptions for 755 yards and 6 TDs.
It's uncanny.
Exactly, when I first made the Woodhead comparison before the season some people were outraged, but actually, Woodhead when healthy has been a very good PPR player, in the same way the CMC was this season.
I think I have been totally vindicated because Woodhead and CMC are almost exactly the same player.
You have to admit, the statistical comparison between Woodhead and CMC's seasons I made above is almost uncanny, it's like they were separated at birth.
CMC is a young Danny Woodhead and that's nothing to be ashamed of, folks.
He's just not the next Marshall Faulk or LeSean McCoy as some people were suggesting earlier in the thread, before the season.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
So mccaffrey, as a 21 year old rookie just matched woodheads best year, but mccafrey won’t improve any moving forward. No chance to improve his game as he matures. No chance to improve his rushing numbers. He is woodhead. Got it
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Some years you have to draft what is there. McCaffrey was there this year at pick #3. When I took him I figured and hoped he would be Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, or maybe morph into Julian Edelman. For me, in Dynasty, that is not a home run, but also not a busted pick. So far he is more or less on track for a productive, unspectacular, but solidly workmanlike career. Sometimes that has to be good enough.
Those predicting the moon for him so far are wrong, he is just a solid guy. Those predicting he would bust because, well, he's white, so far are wrong, he is a solid guy. Had a brief conversation with his Mom last weekend. I always liked her. Nice lady.
Those predicting the moon for him so far are wrong, he is just a solid guy. Those predicting he would bust because, well, he's white, so far are wrong, he is a solid guy. Had a brief conversation with his Mom last weekend. I always liked her. Nice lady.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Who was making those comparisons? I was using Barber and Dunn as go/bys, and I’ll stick to that. As he adds a little mass and gets more comfortable in the pro game I expect him to get a larger share of the snaps, which to me means more carries to go with his pass catching ability. I have no problem seeing him with a career average of 200-220 carries and 60-70 catches per season with some possible upside. That makes him a pretty valuable commodity in ppr leagues.
1250 to 1500 total yds plus the receptions and whatever TDs he gets works pretty nicely in the league I play in.
Not that he is looking to squander him but I got some concerns with Norv. He does like to feature a back, that could be construed as good or bad news for CMC. He prefers a power running game, can CMC give him what he is looking for?
Some might say this is apples to oranges but I recall how Norv handled Cordarelle Patterson. Can get into all the reasons why CP is not a good receiver but what got me about Norv during his Vikings stint was an absolute lack of creativity with CP. This just worries me with respect to CMC as I think he benefits from a more creative coach and also it just shows that Norv can be stubborn, it did not take him long to sit CP coming off a rookie year where he did not go #8 but was a first round pick.
Now Norv has his son and I think two other relatives on Carolina staff offensive staff. Maybe those younger coaches will be able to offer up some creative options for how to use CMC, if he's not cutting it as the primary runner or fits their rushing scheme.
