RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (2 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

In a roundabout way, the CMC trade will end up helping NE some. The Pats own the Panthers 3rd and 6th round picks next draft from moving Stephon Gilmore and a draft day trade. With the Panthers going into tank mode, those picks will keep getting better and better.

How so?

Tankathon | 2026 NFL Draft Order

2026 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.

www.tankathon.com

Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?

If they keep losing they will continue to hold the top pick in that round, which helps NE. As of right now the draft order has not been decided.

those picks will keep getting better and better.

It's not possible for them to get any better which is what he suggested.

 

[Anarchy99]

In a roundabout way, the CMC trade will end up helping NE some. The Pats own the Panthers 3rd and 6th round picks next draft from moving Stephon Gilmore and a draft day trade. With the Panthers going into tank mode, those picks will keep getting better and better.

How so?

Tankathon | 2026 NFL Draft Order

2026 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.

www.tankathon.com

Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?

At the beginning of the season, most people had the Panthers ending up with a Top 10 pick each round. They have played themselves into the worst record in the league so far, so to your point, no their picks can't get any better (if the season ended today). However, there are several candidates alongside them that could make a run at worst record in the league by season's end. At this point, the Panthers may continue to move players for picks and make little effort to win many more games. I am not sure a difference in 10 spots in the 3rd and 6th rounds moves the needle much, but every little bit helps.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

If nothing else, it serves as a block move to keep the Rams from getting him.

 

[The Frankman]

RENAME THE THREAD @TripItUp !

RENAME
THE
THREAD

 

[chad in Indy]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

A traditional RB that's played in less than 8 games the previous two seasons, and I don't think it's any coincidence his injuries started after his highest carry total of this carry - 287 in 2019. A traditional RB that's eclipsed 250 carries only once in his 5 years in his league, over 200 carries twice, over 1,000 rushing yards twice and 1,100 rushing yards only once. Although Carolina and San Francisco both run a zone blocking scheme, their RB usage and offensive philosophies are very much different. Maybe Shanahan retools his offense to fit McCaffrey's skillset in the backfield, but I doubt it. I see him using a mix of Debo and a bigger body RB along with McCaffrey to keep their philosophy the same while utilizing CMC's talents in other ways than what we saw in Carolina. This isn't a finesse offense, it's a run first, wear the defense down offense that thrives off pounding the ball and play action passing. I could be way off base, but I see McCaffrey as an amazing talent, just not a traditional RB that fits into Shanny's scheme as an every down RB.

 

[baymen]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

FWIW, my tongue was firmly planted in cheek when I posted this.

 

[Mongidig]

I think this is great for CMAC‘s fantasy value. He may not have the volume we are used to but his efficiency should be off the charts.

 

[ATB]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

A traditional RB that's played in less than 8 games the previous two seasons, and I don't think it's any coincidence his injuries started after his highest carry total of this carry - 287 in 2019. A traditional RB that's eclipsed 250 carries only once in his 5 years in his league, over 200 carries twice, over 1,000 rushing yards twice and 1,100 rushing yards only once. Although Carolina and San Francisco both run a zone blocking scheme, their RB usage and offensive philosophies are very much different. Maybe Shanahan retools his offense to fit McCaffrey's skillset in the backfield, but I doubt it. I see him using a mix of Debo and a bigger body RB along with McCaffrey to keep their philosophy the same while utilizing CMC's talents in other ways than what we saw in Carolina. This isn't a finesse offense, it's a run first, wear the defense down offense that thrives off pounding the ball and play action passing. I could be way off base, but I see McCaffrey as an amazing talent, just not a traditional RB that fits into Shanny's scheme as an every down RB.

There's no way you trade what they traded to get him without the belief that he's your every-down RB. I don't even have CMC and I see them using him 70% of RB touches.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

FWIW, my tongue was firmly planted in cheek when I posted this.

I don't believe he'll be turned into a traditional slot WR that gets no carries, just so I'm clear as well. But I also don't believe he will be utilized the way we saw him used in Carolina. And finally, I don't believe he will be utilized like any other RB Shanny has had in his system. I think he will be some sort of hybrid to the likes we haven't seen. Maybe Brian Westbrook'ish? Shanahan is very creative and I have no doubt this trade will improve their offense, but how that translates to fantasy production remains to be seen. CMC has never had a head coach this good, he has never had an offensive line this stout, and he has certainly never had this many weapons around him to relieve some of the defensive focus, but that also means more competition for carries, more competition at the goal line, and more competition for touches in general. It also means less wear and tear, better quality of touches and likely more room to work. I'm excited to see how this turns out. He's looked pretty good this year in a football wasteland.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

A traditional RB that's played in less than 8 games the previous two seasons, and I don't think it's any coincidence his injuries started after his highest carry total of this carry - 287 in 2019. A traditional RB that's eclipsed 250 carries only once in his 5 years in his league, over 200 carries twice, over 1,000 rushing yards twice and 1,100 rushing yards only once. Although Carolina and San Francisco both run a zone blocking scheme, their RB usage and offensive philosophies are very much different. Maybe Shanahan retools his offense to fit McCaffrey's skillset in the backfield, but I doubt it. I see him using a mix of Debo and a bigger body RB along with McCaffrey to keep their philosophy the same while utilizing CMC's talents in other ways than what we saw in Carolina. This isn't a finesse offense, it's a run first, wear the defense down offense that thrives off pounding the ball and play action passing. I could be way off base, but I see McCaffrey as an amazing talent, just not a traditional RB that fits into Shanny's scheme as an every down RB.

There's no way you trade what they traded to get him without the belief that he's your every-down RB. I don't even have CMC and I see them using him 70% of RB touches.

No way? Really? Expect the unexpected with Shanahan. McCaffrey is a game changer, and I believe he will be as much in SF, but he has not held up to the rigors of an every down NFL RB. You're risking a lot using him like Jeff Wilson. And if you think Shanny is going to change his run/pass ratio because he has CMC, I think you're wrong.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In a roundabout way, the CMC trade will end up helping NE some. The Pats own the Panthers 3rd and 6th round picks next draft from moving Stephon Gilmore and a draft day trade. With the Panthers going into tank mode, those picks will keep getting better and better.

Good point, because when they were trying they couldn’t stop winning games.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Foreman & Chubba with terrible QB play, without Robbie Anderson - RIP DJ Moore.

I doubt either Hubbard or Foreman moves the needle beyond “dart throw flex” for FF purposes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unluckily for Carolina, however, they’ll still be on the hook for a massive amount of dead cap money thanks to Anderson’s two-year extension he inked last summer. While they do save $690,000 for 2022, the Panthers will have to take on a total hit of $19.4 million over the next two seasons.

It’s worth it to them to tank and get the Niners draft picks.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think this is great for CMAC‘s fantasy value. He may not have the volume we are used to but his efficiency should be off the charts.

The verdict is still out on this one. Over the past 4 years, CMC averaged 23 touches a game and usually was the only weapon in town. There was D.J. Moore and not much else. The Panthers got some production from other players AFTER CMC was hurt . . . not when he was healthy.

And with that workload, he was often banged up. Who knows how long it will take him to ramp up to a full workload in SF? If I owned him, I wouldn't start him this week against the Chiefs. If I had to guess, I think CMC will see a lower workload in SF and maybe a few more TD opportunities. With playoff aspirations, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to run CMC into the ground. They will want to keep him fresh for the playoffs. I'd guess his overall fantasy value for this season is reduced some by moving to the Niners, but he should still be a Top 5 RB (or thereabouts).

 

[menobrown]

More I've mulled this trade over the more down I keep getting.

Most of it has to do with the timing. Late this week, bye in week 9 and the whole things smells like he'll out 2 of the next 3 weeks and week 8 an acclimation period.

The other thing is I am starting to get some concern he'll be taking a step back. In fantasy volume>efficiency. I'm most concerned with his passing game volume. Now you might think I'm just worried for nothing because he's so skilled as a receiver and that's such a big part of his game that why would SF trade for him if they don't have big plans to use him. My counter to that is two things. One simply enough a low volume passing attack just does not have enough balls for Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC in the passing game. The other issue and thought I had was recalling what just last year they took an actual WR in Deebo and when they turned him into a part time RB his receptions catered. So if the argument is that CMC's skill set as a receiver is to valuable to not use, well......

In CMC's career 58% of his fantasy production, in PPR leagues, has been as a receiver. Touches are not equal in fantasy. He's averaged 13.5 carries and 6.1 receptions a game in his career. I don't see any way he's coming in at 6 receptions a game, not unless some of those other players I mentioned start going down. Sure he might be a 20+ carry RB but that's not what I was drafting.

Think about it this way. In his career he's averaged .68 fantasy points per rush, 2.12 fantasy points reception. That of course means he needs just over 3 carries to equal the fantasy production he averages on one reception. Again, all touches are not equal.

 

[Faust]

49ers' Kyle Shanahan: 'Still up in the air' whether Christian McCaffrey will play Sunday vs. Chiefs

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

49ers' Kyle Shanahan: 'Still up in the air' whether Christian McCaffrey will play Sunday vs. Chiefs

Excessive shanahaning on the field. 10 yard penalty, & stop lying, Kyle.

 

[FairWarning]

In a roundabout way, the CMC trade will end up helping NE some. The Pats own the Panthers 3rd and 6th round picks next draft from moving Stephon Gilmore and a draft day trade. With the Panthers going into tank mode, those picks will keep getting better and better.

How so?

Tankathon | 2026 NFL Draft Order

2026 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.

www.tankathon.com

Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?

It just guarantees that NE will get those picks, Carolina may win 1-2 the rest of the year.

 

[fightingillini]

More I've mulled this trade over the more down I keep getting.

Most of it has to do with the timing. Late this week, bye in week 9 and the whole things smells like he'll out 2 of the next 3 weeks and week 8 an acclimation period.

The other thing is I am starting to get some concern he'll be taking a step back. In fantasy volume>efficiency. I'm most concerned with his passing game volume. Now you might think I'm just worried for nothing because he's so skilled as a receiver and that's such a big part of his game that why would SF trade for him if they don't have big plans to use him. My counter to that is two things. One simply enough a low volume passing attack just does not have enough balls for Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC in the passing game. The other issue and thought I had was recalling what just last year they took an actual WR in Deebo and when they turned him into a part time RB his receptions catered. So if the argument is that CMC's skill set as a receiver is to valuable to not use, well......

In CMC's career 58% of his fantasy production, in PPR leagues, has been as a receiver. Touches are not equal in fantasy. He's averaged 13.5 carries and 6.1 receptions a game in his career. I don't see any way he's coming in at 6 receptions a game, not unless some of those other players I mentioned start going down. Sure he might be a 20+ carry RB but that's not what I was drafting.

Think about it this way. In his career he's averaged .68 fantasy points per rush, 2.12 fantasy points reception. That of course means he needs just over 3 carries to equal the fantasy production he averages on one reception. Again, all touches are not equal.

I get what you are saying, but maybe Shanahan will adjust the offense to CMC. No reason why Jimmy G can't drop it off to CMC as a "run". Also SF will have a lot more scoring opportunities than CAR. So maybe CMC will catch less passes but will make it up with TDs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

More I've mulled this trade over the more down I keep getting.

Most of it has to do with the timing. Late this week, bye in week 9 and the whole things smells like he'll out 2 of the next 3 weeks and week 8 an acclimation period.

That is not at all how Shanahan operates. He paid for his toy, he’s going to use his toy. 12-15 touches this week. More going forward. No way in hell CMC misses 2-3 weeks. No way. Crazy talk.

The other thing is I am starting to get some concern he'll be taking a step back. In fantasy volume>efficiency. I'm most concerned with his passing game volume. Now you might think I'm just worried for nothing because he's so skilled as a receiver and that's such a big part of his game that why would SF trade for him if they don't have big plans to use him. My counter to that is two things. One simply enough a low volume passing attack just does not have enough balls for Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC in the passing game. The other issue and thought I had was recalling what just last year they took an actual WR in Deebo and when they turned him into a part time RB his receptions catered. So if the argument is that CMC's skill set as a receiver is to valuable to not use, well......

JimmyG excels at checking down/dumping off. Shanahan loves running the ball. CMC is going to be the engine in a very efficient YAC-based offense, and he’s going to be used in a variety of ways. The volume of the pass offense is a bit unpredictable with CMC in the fold, as he’s a significantly better receive than Mitchell or Wilson.

In CMC's career 58% of his fantasy production, in PPR leagues, has been as a receiver. Touches are not equal in fantasy. He's averaged 13.5 carries and 6.1 receptions a game in his career. I don't see any way he's coming in at 6 receptions a game, not unless some of those other players I mentioned start going down. Sure he might be a 20+ carry RB but that's not what I was drafting.

He’s also played on terrible offenses with worse QBs than JimmyG, and without the benefit of Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. So the trade-off could be more breakout runs & more red zone work. TDs are valuable too. And again - I don’t see his receptions tanking in SF. IMO he’ll be targeted plenty.

Think about it this way. In his career he's averaged .68 fantasy points per rush, 2.12 fantasy points reception. That of course means he needs just over 3 carries to equal the fantasy production he averages on one reception. Again, all touches are not equal.

Of course not, but being in a better offense should mean fewer 3 & outs, and thus more touches.

Your room & gloom outlook is inaccurate, IMO.

I’m not 100% Pollyanna on this situation, but I do know the 49ers pretty well, and IMO CMC’s value is getting a boost in the right direction. Better offense, better coaching, better quality of football. The 49ers are a contending team, which CMC has rarely experienced. I see no universe in which this is not an immediate upgrade for CMC. Other than this week, where he may only see limited touches.

 

[Faust]

Christian McCaffrey adds a whole new dynamic to the San Francisco 49ers offense

 

[Faust]

NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports there's "a pretty good chance" Christian McCaffrey will play in Week 7 against the Chiefs.​

Schultz said McCaffrey, who was traded to the Niners on Thursday night, would not see a full complement of snaps but would be used around the end zone. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that he had considered drawing up some red zone plays for his newly-acquired RB1. CMC drafters will probably have to start him against Kansas City if he suits up for lack of better options on their bench or the waiver wire. Jeff Wilson could retain some fantasy appeal if McCaffrey is going to be used this week on a (very) limited basis.
RELATED:

• Jeff Wilson

SOURCE: Jordan Schultz on Twitter
Oct 21, 2022, 12:46 PM ET

 

[menobrown]

That is not at all how Shanahan operates. He paid for his toy, he’s going to use his toy. 12-15 touches this week. More going forward. No way in hell CMC missed 2-3 weeks. No way. Crazy talk.

Whoa. I never said he was going to miss 3 weeks. I said one for sure, week 9, and likely no good to play this week if he plays. Assuming he's 100% CMC and ready to go in week 8 when they got a bye next week in his week of practice seems like the only crazy talk I hear.

JimmyG excels at checking down/dumping off. Shanahan loves running the ball.

They are near the bottom in RB passing game usage. Again they took an actual WR in Deebo last year and turned him into a part time RB and his passing game usage went in the toilet for a month. But sure, keep telling yourself it's not a concern for CMC's to have high end usage in the passing game.

I don't know how often I can say. I did not draft CMC to be a 20 carry per game RB. I drafted him to be a 100 reception RB to go along with 15+ carries. I don't think I have that any longer.

I’m not 100% Pollyanna on this situation,

I think your head could not be firmly planted in the sand.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports there's "a pretty good chance" Christian McCaffrey will play in Week 7 against the Chiefs.​

Schultz said McCaffrey, who was traded to the Niners on Thursday night, would not see a full complement of snaps but would be used around the end zone. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that he had considered drawing up some red zone plays for his newly-acquired RB1. CMC drafters will probably have to start him against Kansas City if he suits up for lack of better options on their bench or the waiver wire. Jeff Wilson could retain some fantasy appeal if McCaffrey is going to be used this week on a (very) limited basis.
RELATED:

• Jeff Wilson

SOURCE: Jordan Schultz on Twitter
Oct 21, 2022, 12:46 PM ET

See.

Shanahana gonna shanahan. CMC will play Sunday.

Not sure I’d trust him in lineups outside of a flex or BYE this week, but he’ll play.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That is not at all how Shanahan operates. He paid for his toy, he’s going to use his toy. 12-15 touches this week. More going forward. No way in hell CMC missed 2-3 weeks. No way. Crazy talk.

Whoa. I never said he was going to miss 3 weeks. I said one for sure, week 9, and likely no good to play this week if he plays. Assuming he's 100% CMC and ready to go in week 8 when they got a bye next week in his week of practice seems like the only crazy talk I hear.

Sounded like you were saying he wouldn’t be playable in FF for up to 3 weeks.

JimmyG excels at checking down/dumping off. Shanahan loves running the ball.

They are near the bottom in RB passing game usage. Again they took an actual WR in Deebo last year and turned him into a part time RB and his passing game usage went in the toilet for a month. But sure, keep telling yourself it's not a concern for CMC's to have high end usage in the passing game.

I don't know how often I can say. I did not draft CMC to be a 20 carry per game RB. I drafted him to be a 100 reception RB to go along with 15+ carries. I don't think I have that any longer.

Chicken & the egg. If the Niners had CMC all year do you believe they’d be in the bottom in passing game usage?

Or maybe it’s just that Wilson isn’t a great pass catching back, and Mitchell is hurt?

I’d say it’s the latter. CMC adds an element the 49ers have been missing since jet McKinnon was there. And naturally he got hurt too.

I’m not 100% Pollyanna on this situation,

I think your head could not be firmly planted in the sand.

I’m not sure what that means. Was that English? Is a word missing?

 

[ATB]

Wouldn't be shocked if Shanahan turns him into a slot receiver.

I think that's the smart football move. I hope he doesn't try to use him as a traditional RB in that scheme, he will get killed. But as a slot WR that gets a few carries a game, he's like Wes Welker on steroids. As a fantasy owner I don't love this landing spot.

What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"

A traditional RB that's played in less than 8 games the previous two seasons, and I don't think it's any coincidence his injuries started after his highest carry total of this carry - 287 in 2019. A traditional RB that's eclipsed 250 carries only once in his 5 years in his league, over 200 carries twice, over 1,000 rushing yards twice and 1,100 rushing yards only once. Although Carolina and San Francisco both run a zone blocking scheme, their RB usage and offensive philosophies are very much different. Maybe Shanahan retools his offense to fit McCaffrey's skillset in the backfield, but I doubt it. I see him using a mix of Debo and a bigger body RB along with McCaffrey to keep their philosophy the same while utilizing CMC's talents in other ways than what we saw in Carolina. This isn't a finesse offense, it's a run first, wear the defense down offense that thrives off pounding the ball and play action passing. I could be way off base, but I see McCaffrey as an amazing talent, just not a traditional RB that fits into Shanny's scheme as an every down RB.

There's no way you trade what they traded to get him without the belief that he's your every-down RB. I don't even have CMC and I see them using him 70% of RB touches.

No way? Really? Expect the unexpected with Shanahan. McCaffrey is a game changer, and I believe he will be as much in SF, but he has not held up to the rigors of an every down NFL RB. You're risking a lot using him like Jeff Wilson. And if you think Shanny is going to change his run/pass ratio because he has CMC, I think you're wrong.

I don't think we're far off in our takes. I see CMC getting less touches in SF than he did in CAR. When his body was breaking down on him, he was somewhere north of 85-90% of RB touches, I believe. I'm saying he'll have somewhere in the low 70%. That's a hefty decrease in touches, but it's still the lion's share.

 

[menobrown]

More I've mulled this trade over the more down I keep getting.

Most of it has to do with the timing. Late this week, bye in week 9 and the whole things smells like he'll out 2 of the next 3 weeks and week 8 an acclimation period.

The other thing is I am starting to get some concern he'll be taking a step back. In fantasy volume>efficiency. I'm most concerned with his passing game volume. Now you might think I'm just worried for nothing because he's so skilled as a receiver and that's such a big part of his game that why would SF trade for him if they don't have big plans to use him. My counter to that is two things. One simply enough a low volume passing attack just does not have enough balls for Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC in the passing game. The other issue and thought I had was recalling what just last year they took an actual WR in Deebo and when they turned him into a part time RB his receptions catered. So if the argument is that CMC's skill set as a receiver is to valuable to not use, well......

In CMC's career 58% of his fantasy production, in PPR leagues, has been as a receiver. Touches are not equal in fantasy. He's averaged 13.5 carries and 6.1 receptions a game in his career. I don't see any way he's coming in at 6 receptions a game, not unless some of those other players I mentioned start going down. Sure he might be a 20+ carry RB but that's not what I was drafting.

Think about it this way. In his career he's averaged .68 fantasy points per rush, 2.12 fantasy points reception. That of course means he needs just over 3 carries to equal the fantasy production he averages on one reception. Again, all touches are not equal.

I get what you are saying, but maybe Shanahan will adjust the offense to CMC. No reason why Jimmy G can't drop it off to CMC as a "run". Also SF will have a lot more scoring opportunities than CAR. So maybe CMC will catch less passes but will make it up with TDs.

He adjusted his offense last year to not throw the ball to Deebo and to run him more. Again not what I want with CMC. Runs are less fantasy production per touch and lead to higher wear and tear and injury chances.

CMC has averaged .78 TD's per game in his career in Carolina, a 17 game pace of 13.26 TD's. There is not a ton of growth potential with that number. Only 7 players last year scored more and he plays with one of them now.

 

[menobrown]

Sounded like you were saying he wouldn’t be playable in FF for up to 3 weeks.

2 out of 3 and not 100% full go in a third but will certianly be in every lineup in week 8 but I think it's step back vs what I would have forecast him for week 8 before the trade. This is no small thing especially for those of us who own in the contests with only 6 weeks left in the regular season. It's my primary issue with the trade for sure, the timing, more so then how he'll do once acclimated but it's a concern as well.

Chicken & the egg. If the Niners had CMC all year do you believe they’d be in the bottom in passing game usage?

Or maybe it’s just that Wilson isn’t a great pass catching back, and Mitchell is hurt?

Again they had an actual WR playing part time RB last year and when he did his usage was meager for weeks and down on the whole. This is not about Jeff Wilson. Yes CMC will increase the RB usage in the passing game but there is no indication it's a heavy part of what they do. It's a slower tempo run heavy team and they just traded for a RB, I don't see that MO changing.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Again they had an actual WR playing part time RB last year and when he did his usage was meager for weeks and down on the whole.

They did that in direct response to injury though.

 

[menobrown]

Again they had an actual WR playing part time RB last year and when he did his usage was meager for weeks and down on the whole.

They did that in direct response to injury though.

I don't see the significance. If anything injuries required them to use Deebo in a variety of ways, instead they just sacrificed passing game usage for running.

Let me try and explain my point of bringing up Deebo. They took an actual high end WR, wanted him to run the ball and when they did that drastically lowered his usage in the passing game. In other words one of Deebo's best traits, receiving, was not being utilized.

As it relates to CMC this is to say that kind of blows a giant hole in the theory that "well CMC is so good in the passing game and Shanahan is so smart that of course he'll use him heavily in that area and not waste one of his best traits".

My belief is we see CMC's rushing usage reach career highs but his passing game usage drop to career lows. That's not an equitable trade off to me as it relates to PPR fantasy football.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Again they had an actual WR playing part time RB last year and when he did his usage was meager for weeks and down on the whole.

They did that in direct response to injury though.

I don't see the significance. If anything injuries required them to use Deebo in a variety of ways, instead they just sacrificed passing game usage for running.

Let me try and explain my point of bringing up Deebo. They took an actual high end WR, wanted him to run the ball and when they did that drastically lowered his usage in the passing game. In other words one of Deebo's best traits, receiving, was not being utilized.

As it relates to CMC this is to say that kind of blows a giant hole in the theory that "well CMC is so good in the passing game and Shanahan is so smart that of course he'll use him heavily in that area and not waste one of his best traits".

My belief is we see CMC's rushing usage reach career highs but his passing game usage drop to career lows. That's not an equitable trade off to me as it relates to PPR fantasy football.

Will be interesting to see what happens for sure. I’m hopeful you’re incorrect - not FF-related, just as a 49er fan.

 

[travdogg]

I don't see any reason that starting in week 8 CMC isn't seeing 20 touches every week, which is pretty in-line with what he was doing in Carolina in 2022. Factor in that the Panthers couldn't sustain drives at all, so they were running BY FAR the fewest plays of any team in the NFL, and there is upside for more, even with more touch competition. Also, the 49ers are the #12 team in the NFL in rushing yards before contact (were #2 with Trent Williams who is due back this week) Carolina is 26th. For reference's sake, the Rams are dead last. So, chances are CMC's 4.6 YPC goes up quite a bit, likely over 5.1, with more big plays mixed in. Jeff Wilson is at 4.9 right now, so if anything, could be undershooting it.

I think there is a decent argument for Saquon Barkley over CMC, but I'm struggling to find one for any other RB, maybe Taylor if he looks fully healthy, maybe?

 

[menobrown]

I’m hopeful you’re incorrect

Me to

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't see any reason that starting in week 8 CMC isn't seeing 20 touches every week, which is pretty in-line with what he was doing in Carolina in 2022. Factor in that the Panthers couldn't sustain drives at all, so they were running BY FAR the fewest plays of any team in the NFL, and there is upside for more, even with more touch competition. Also, the 49ers are the #12 team in the NFL in rushing yards before contact (were #2 with Trent Williams who is due back this week) Carolina is 26th. For reference's sake, the Rams are dead last. So, chances are CMC's 4.6 YPC goes up quite a bit, likely over 5.1, with more big plays mixed in. Jeff Wilson is at 4.9 right now, so if anything, could be undershooting it.

I think there is a decent argument for Saquon Barkley over CMC, but I'm struggling to find one for any other RB, maybe Taylor if he looks fully healthy, maybe?

As I indicated previously, CMC averaged 23 touches a game over the last 4 years in CAR. Is SF better off giving him a similar amount, a slightly lower amount, or a lot fewer touches each week to keep him fresh for the playoffs? Has Shanahan opted to give a back 20+ touches a game consistently in the past? I can't think of anyone. (I get that he probably hasn't had someone like CMC to insert, so the past may not be a great predictor here.) IMO, his number of touches will likely go down, but his quality / effectiveness may go up. What that translates to on a net basis is hard to predict and calculate until we see how it plays out and how quickly he gets acclimated into the game planning.

 

[travdogg]

I don't see any reason that starting in week 8 CMC isn't seeing 20 touches every week, which is pretty in-line with what he was doing in Carolina in 2022. Factor in that the Panthers couldn't sustain drives at all, so they were running BY FAR the fewest plays of any team in the NFL, and there is upside for more, even with more touch competition. Also, the 49ers are the #12 team in the NFL in rushing yards before contact (were #2 with Trent Williams who is due back this week) Carolina is 26th. For reference's sake, the Rams are dead last. So, chances are CMC's 4.6 YPC goes up quite a bit, likely over 5.1, with more big plays mixed in. Jeff Wilson is at 4.9 right now, so if anything, could be undershooting it.

I think there is a decent argument for Saquon Barkley over CMC, but I'm struggling to find one for any other RB, maybe Taylor if he looks fully healthy, maybe?

As I indicated previously, CMC averaged 23 touches a game over the last 4 years in CAR. Is SF better off giving him a similar amount, a slightly lower amount, or a lot fewer touches each week to keep him fresh for the playoffs? Has Shanahan opted to give a back 20+ touches a game consistently in the past? I can't think of anyone. (I get that he probably hasn't had someone like CMC to insert, so the past may not be a great predictor here.) IMO, his number of touches will likely go down, but his quality / effectiveness may go up. What that translates to on a net basis is hard to predict and calculate until we see how it plays out and how quickly he gets acclimated into the game planning.

Since Shanahan has been a play caller (so counting his time as an OC) these are his highest main RBs per game totals

2008: Steve Slaton 19.9 touches per game
2012: Alfred Morris 21.6 touches per game
2013: Alfred Morris 17.9 touches per game
2015: Devonta Freeman 22.6 touches per game
2016: Devonta Freeman 17.6 touches per game
2017: Carlos Hyde 18.7 touches per game
2021: Elijah Mitchell 20.5 touches per game

So, his most productive RBs have been around 20 per game, but with the possible exception of Freeman (and even that is really pushing it) none of those guys were anywhere near CMC's talent level. Like you said, may not be a great predicator, but it shows Shanny clearly isn't opposed to it.

 

[menobrown]

Has Shanahan opted to give a back 20+ touches a game consistently in the past? I can't think of anyone.

Last season Mitchell had 6 straight games he was active where he got 21+ carries and injuries are really the only thing that kept him from most likely solidly averaging 20+ touches every week.

I'm personally not all concerned with CMC's touches, at least not from week 10 onward. I'm just concerned it's going to lean heavier on carries/less on receptions then we are used to seeing.

 

[z00t]

Has Shanahan opted to give a back 20+ touches a game consistently in the past? I can't think of anyone.

Last season Mitchell had 6 straight games he was active where he got 21+ carries and injuries are really the only thing that kept him from most likely solidly averaging 20+ touches every week.

I'm personally not all concerned with CMC's touches, at least not from week 10 onward. I'm just concerned it's going to lean heavier on carries/less on receptions then we are used to seeing.

Well one thing I'd say to try and ease your mind is Deebo's decline in targets also corresponded with a big drop in snap% (presumably because Shanahan didn't want to kill his star playmaker even though the Deebo RB experiment saved the offense last year), his implied touches were still 40% targets, it's just he was only getting 12 or so a game. Eli Mitchell was run heavy last year but the previous time the Niners used a real bell cow back, Hyde in 2017, he had 88 targets, and Hyde wasn't exactly a PPR monster throughout his career. McKinnon once had 46 as the third head of the hydra. Shanahan has thrown to his backs at times in SF, he just hasn't forced it to the Matt Breidas of the world.

As a fantasy owner I think there's justifiable concern about the number of mouths to feed in an offense hamstrung by Jimmy G, whether there's enough room for him to improve efficiency/TD-wise to offset downswing in volume, stuff like that, but I really wouldn't worry that the team doesn't run a lot of Texas routes for Jeff Wilson. Whatever his total usage ends up being, I'd be surprised if a third of it isn't in the passing game. Especially given the #1 way to make this trade a disaster is to get him hurt, I think they'll try to limit his opportunities to get crushed in a pile or popped by a linebacker to the most realistic extent you possibly can for an NFL RB.

 

[ghostguy123]

Man, people are about to be really really sad if they are expecting 2020 type CMC production.
Or was it 2019. Ah you get the idea

 

[The Gator]

Man, people are about to be really really sad if they are expecting 2020 type CMC production.
Or was it 2019. Ah you get the idea

He’s RB4 now in ppr, going to a better situation. What does 2019 have to do with anything? RB4 goes to a better situation? Sign me up every time.

 

[ghostguy123]

Man, people are about to be really really sad if they are expecting 2020 type CMC production.
Or was it 2019. Ah you get the idea

He’s RB4 now in ppr, going to a better situation. What does 2019 have to do with anything? RB4 goes to a better situation? Sign me up every time.

I am of the opinion his value has not changed much, if at all. Personally I don't see as many receptions coming.
I mention 2019 cause some people sound like they think THOSE numbers are coming back. They aren't.
CMC is a prime sell high candidate IMO.

 

[Anarchy99]

Man, people are about to be really really sad if they are expecting 2020 type CMC production.
Or was it 2019. Ah you get the idea

He’s RB4 now in ppr, going to a better situation. What does 2019 have to do with anything? RB4 goes to a better situation? Sign me up every time.

Define better. If you need a fantasy win this week to salvage your season, is CMC in SF going to outscore CMC if he were still in CAR? And going to a better team doesn't necessarily mean a better fantasy situation for CMC. Wilson could still vulture some work, and SF has generally spread the ball around more than CAR does. Sure, it could end up being a better situation eventually, but in the short term it could easily be worse.

 

[The Gator]

Man, people are about to be really really sad if they are expecting 2020 type CMC production.
Or was it 2019. Ah you get the idea

He’s RB4 now in ppr, going to a better situation. What does 2019 have to do with anything? RB4 goes to a better situation? Sign me up every time.

Define better. If you need a fantasy win this week to salvage your season, is CMC in SF going to outscore CMC if he were still in CAR? And going to a better team doesn't necessarily mean a better fantasy situation for CMC. Wilson could still vulture some work, and SF has generally spread the ball around more than CAR does. Sure, it could end up being a better situation eventually, but in the short term it could easily be worse.

In the short term as in only this week? Sure I’ll give you that.

After this week? I doubt many would take Car CMC over SF CMC.

 

[menobrown]

And going to a better team doesn't necessarily mean a better fantasy situation for CMC

I'll use two WR's as prime examples of this and one of them I'll go way back.

The way back guy is Vincent Jackson. He left Rivers, went to Tampa and with some combo of Josh Freeman/Glennon proceeded to have best fantasy seasons of his career.

Tyreek would be the other one and granted it's just 6 games but as of right now in PPG, without benefit of TD's being a big part of his production, he's having a better season then he had with Mahomes.

The why to both of those is more targets. Volume beats efficiency most of the time.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'll use two WR's as prime examples of this and one of them I'll go way back.

The way back guy is Vincent Jackson. He left Rivers, went to Tampa and with some combo of Josh Freeman/Glennon proceeded to have best fantasy seasons of his career.

Tyreek would be the other one and granted it's just 6 games but as of right now in PPG, without benefit of TD's being a big part of his production, he's having a better season then he had with Mahomes.

The why to both of those is more targets. Volume beats efficiency most of the time.

Good points but I think we also have to factor in how inefficient the Panthers offense has been. The Panthers have only run 2 plays all season inside the opponent’s 5 yard line.

 

[:deadbevo:]

And going to a better team doesn't necessarily mean a better fantasy situation for CMC

I'll use two WR's as prime examples of this and one of them I'll go way back.

The way back guy is Vincent Jackson. He left Rivers, went to Tampa and with some combo of Josh Freeman/Glennon proceeded to have best fantasy seasons of his career.

Tyreek would be the other one and granted it's just 6 games but as of right now in PPG, without benefit of TD's being a big part of his production, he's having a better season then he had with Mahomes.

The why to both of those is more targets. Volume beats efficiency most of the time.

I don't think he sees the same volume. In the short term he will take a hit in targets, as the season goes on and Mitchell comes back - he will see a hit in carries.

In this case better team means he isn't plan A, B, and C. He will be plan A on some plays, plan B on a lot of plays. He takes a small hit on plan A plays, a HUGE hit on plan C plays (because plan A or B is going to work more often for SF).

 

[rockaction]

Count me among those that don't think this benefits CMC's fantasy prospects at all. Questions need to be answered.

Can he survive the wide zone's punishment on RBs?
Will he get the opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield?
Will they use him at the goal line like Carolina did?
What about his volume? Where's that going?

I think all those questions lead to a net negative for CMC and fantasy. Will the 49ers be a better team? Yes, if he can stay healthy and if he fits their system. If so, then the 49ers got a boon yesterday. However, if he's either not healthy enough to run the wide zone with abandon or they don't take advantage of his pass catching chops, it won't be that drastic an improvement. And certainly not for fantasy in that case.

I really don't think he'll hold up from getting massacred on wide zone runs like Deebo does. He's no Deebo. He's not even Jeff Wilson, and who knew how long Wilson was going to last?

That's my two cents on the matter.

 

[rockaction]

And I posted this in the 49ers thread, but I think it goes well here. Contradicts my points about the wide zone and the 49ers.

The Christian McCaffrey Trade Is a Wildly Fun All-In Move for the 49ers

San Francisco dealt a haul of picks to bring in the star running back, igniting questions about the value of the position. But if there is anyone who can get the most out of CMC, it’s Kyle Shanahan.

www.theringer.com

 

[Dr. Octopus]

With playoff aspirations, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to run CMC into the ground

They’re currently 3-3. They have to get to the playoffs first.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Jimmy G going from the outhouse to the penthouse. What a difference a few months makes. Good for him. And he now has the best weapons of any QB in the league.