It makes no sense. He was running really well and Burkhead got injured. He should have gotten more touches. Very frustrating.
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RB Damien Harris, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Fariq
- Start date
For whatever reason they got very pass heavy. I get they were down, but it was only by 7, no reason to abandon what was working.
Harris had looked awesome though, he should be getting 15-20 carries every game.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Im not super confident...but after losing Gurley and not trusting RoJo at all...im rolling with him. I could actually still pick up Brian Hill I guess...but think Im taking my chances with Harris.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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rockaction
Footballguy
I watched the crucial parts of that game. He was getting yanked in goal-to-go situations once he started breaking off runs to help them move the football. He got vultured by James White twice, who was in there on third-ands to give a receiving option out of the backfield.
That's why NE RBs are so tough in fantasy. They get pulled at the goal line in this iteration of the Patriots for Newton and a receiving back like Burkhead (now injured) or White.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I did see him get one GL carry on redzone. Right before White scored one. Otherwise...yeah, he is going to need to break one 20 yards or so.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, he did. Got stuffed. It was after the Newton sneak attempt, so he wasn't even first in line.
Then again, Pats jus' trying to win, so...who can fault them, really, if it works?
This has happened each of the last two or three weeks. He is running well and then disappears for a quarter without seeing the ball. It makes no sense based on how poorly Cam is throwing the ball. Harris should be getting 20-25 touches a game at this point.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Repeat after me: all Patriots RB are fool’s gold. The second you think, “aha! I’ve got the next great Patriots feature back!” just take a deep breath, and slap yourself across the face so you’ll know what “tangible” is. Because that slap is 100x more real than the notion that you’ve caught lightning in a bottle in the Pats backfield.
If the 5-headed monster wasn’t enough, and if bringing in a running QB wasn’t the final sign, I dunno what is.
Harris has looked pretty good at times. Not saying he hasn’t. But IMO the volume just won’t be there. And if/when White, Burkhead & Michel move on to greener pastures, BB will bring in 4 more middling RB to muddy up the waters.
it is what it is.
If the 5-headed monster wasn’t enough, and if bringing in a running QB wasn’t the final sign, I dunno what is.
Harris has looked pretty good at times. Not saying he hasn’t. But IMO the volume just won’t be there. And if/when White, Burkhead & Michel move on to greener pastures, BB will bring in 4 more middling RB to muddy up the waters.
it is what it is.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Stuck with him until somebody else falls for it. Until then, I'm content to pick up < 10 points every time I start him.
Yes, that's an "I have to go to the bathroom in a violent way" face, much the same face one makes when starting Harris.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, but they also throw to James White on 1st and goal at the 1 a lot. And they’ll do that with whomever replaces White.
Your best bet is to find someone who fervently believes what you posted here & trade them Harris at that presumed future value, because it’s unlikely to manifest.
Because all Patriots RB are fool’s gold.
nittanylion
Footballguy
@Anarchy99 , what are your thoughts on DHarris 2021 prospects as of this fine Thursday, May 20th?
Can he be the Antowain Smith/Corey Dillon etc. of this backfield, as BB sometimes finds? Odds that he will be?
TIA!
Can he be the Antowain Smith/Corey Dillon etc. of this backfield, as BB sometimes finds? Odds that he will be?
TIA!
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If you have to go back to a Smith and Dillon for the guy BB sometimes finds, I’d say the odds are pretty low. Another year to avoid this backfield, and if I’m wrong oh well.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like Damien Harris this year. Harris had a stretch of games where he averaged 15 touches a game. And BB is notorious for not letting Rookies touch the ball. White will still get his rec, Sony will get a few carries, but Sony is gone next year.
I think it a good chance Damien Harris get >200 touches and >1000 total yards. TD's are impossible to predict.
I think it a good chance Damien Harris get >200 touches and >1000 total yards. TD's are impossible to predict.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There's a reason why people say BB doesn't care about your fantasy team. Sure, there is a non-zero chance Harris has a Dillionesque season in 2021. But that probably means a 0.01% chance.
For starters, SINCE Dillion, BB has opted for something close to the following configuration for his RBs:
- An 1st and 2nd down runner
- A 3rd down receiving back / change of pace back
- A backup to the early down back
- A guy that gets a couple of series on his own in each half
- And either a short yardage back or another guy for depth.
The one year (2016) when Blount went crazy (299-1161-18) was not by design and was out of necessity. That was one of the years Dion Lewis was supposed to see a ton of work and got hurt and Blount inherited a bigger role. Since then, BB has also started carrying more RBs to avoid having to sign someone like 32-year-old Steven Jackson out of desperation.
Yes, Harris looked good last year, but doing a deeper dive into what happened, Harris missed 6 games, Michel missed 7 games, Burkhead missed 6 games, and White missed 2 games. So hard to tell what would have happened if everyone was available each week.
There were only two games last year where Harris and Michel played together (which occurred when Burkhead was already lost for the season) . . . a blowout win against the Chargers when Cam threw for 69 yards and a blowout loss to the Rams when Cam threw for 119 yards.
It's always hard to call anything a trend in blowouts, as teams usually get away from what they usually run offensively. But in those two games, Harris had 27 carries, Cam had 21 carries, and Michel had 17 carries. That doesn't remotely resemble a carry break down near what Dillon had when he was a stud 17 years ago.
I am not buying into the media driven speculation that Michel is in danger of being cut because they drafted Stevenson. BB doesn't usually give rookie RBs a ton to do. Michel played extremely well last year and is still on his rookie deal. There is no reason to cut a guy coming off a season with a 5.7 YPC and still playing for peanuts.
Add in that the #1 NE running back is essentially Cam Newton, and there is a RBBC + a QB committee. Factor in that NE added 2 red zone TEs and 2 WRs and I doubt they run as often this year.
On a side note, the best outcome for Harris would be if Jones were the QB and all those carries filtered back to the actual RBs. IMO, either Jones wins the job in training camp or he will sit most of the season. It's not a reach to think that Cam will do better than last year with a full year to learn the playbook, a lot more practice time, and more weapons. The defense should also be much better, meaning the team should also be better. (I thought Newton looked bad and his shoulder looked like toast, but they brought him back and BB loves him.)
If NE starts the season with Cam and they are winning (not a huge stretch), then there really isn't much incentive to switch to Jones. The Patriots schedule is much harder later in the season, so it almost seems counterproductive to then switch to Jones for a stretch of really tough opponents.
The current crop of RBs has Harris-Michel-White-Stevenson-Bolden-Taylor. IMO, Burkhead is still an option if he shows he has recovered from his injuries. (I believe Rex has been rehabbing at NE facilities since his surgery last year.) I can see where Burkhead doesn't have many suitors and he comes back for close to the league minimum. I know that Bolden's value is as a special teamer, but I think NE would swap out Bolden for Burkhead if Rex were 100% and willing to play for cheap.
As for your question, I don't really think all of that up to Harris having a Dillon type season (345-1635-12 in 2004). In his short time in NE, Harris has had some durability issues and staying on the field, so the verdict is still out on how reliable he is and how many games he will be available. He'll probably average in the 13-15 carry range with limited goal line carries and not many receptions. (Harris and Michel had a total of 3 rushing TD in 216 carries last season.) I would guess he would average around 70 yards per game and an occasional TD or reception (very similar to last year) . . . multiply that times how many games he think he will suit up. Not sure where that would rank him on the fantasy scale (but probably not as a regular fantasy starter).
It's very possible NE does not have a single skill position player worth starting for fantasy purposes. Cam may not have the passing stats to rank as a starting fantasy QB . . . but Cam's rushing totals will kill the RBs. There isn't a go to WR. And having two TEs will likely bring down the value for both of them.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As far as the Sony is gone next year narrative, IMO, NE didn't pick up his 5th year extension because they have no interest in guaranteeing him close to $5 million in salary more than a year in advance. He is unlikely to have robust demand in free agency (should he get that far). I think if he has a year like last year but healthier, I think there is a decent chance he would be back next year. I think we could see him confront a soft free agent RB market and then come back and play for a low dollar deal. But we are a long way from that.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Well put and exactly the BB playbook. Valid perspective in Sony expectation.Anarchy99 said:
I still like Damien Harris and his potential, not Top 10 RB role, but >200 touches and >1000 yards are "IMO, within his reach".
What role does the Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson offer? Besides a low $ contract?
Remember that year when everyone was so excited that ______ (fill in the blank with Michel, Burkhead, Gray, Lewis, Ridley et al) was set to be the lead back and provide huge value? We do this every year. The Patriots are always enticing, especially at the RB position, as Belichick wants to run, run again and run some more, but Belichick has shown very clearly that he will rarely produce a traditional #1 RB. Someone will always reach for the Patriots "lead rb" in the hopes that Belichick goes back to his Corey Dillon usage, but what are the chances of that? I'll become more interested in Harris if Mac Jones wins the job, as Newton will truly sap a lot of his value, but, even then, I think his ADP will rise as we get closer to the season and I think he'll likely be overdrafted.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Personally, I would take Benjarvus Green Ellis, Stevan Ridley Dion Lewis, LeGarette Blount production from Damien Harris and be absolutely thrilled. I just think they have been RB starved for quite some time. I don't think there is anyone standing in his way from having 1k yards and some TD's.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
:nods:Soulfly3 said:
People will throw bricks at me but I still think he is about as good as Najee despite the difference in draft position. Sure I would say Najee is better than Damien but its not by a lot in my opinion.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I just meant comparing the two players based on them both playing for the same school in college.
NE RBBC has always been difficult to figure out. If anyone could its Anarchy but even he throws his hands up at the prospect most of the time.
I think that's the way Bill likes it to be for defensive coordinators.
My comment more about agreeing with Soul that Damien Harris is a good player.
I dont know if he is good enough for Bill to change his ways or not. It's possible but the other guys would need to fail somewhat as well for Harris to earn a majority share of RB opportunities.
Boston
Footballguy
The x-factor fantasy-wise is goal-line carries once Cam is out-of-the-picture which I believe will be sooner rather than later...just don't see Harris being too involved in the passing game so if he is going to increase his value he needs to punch it in in close...if those carries were to go to Stevenson (no clue just throwing out that scenario) that would really hinder any hope of Harris having legit fantasy value.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Huh? The Patriots have been doing the same thing with their RB's since Dillon left 15 years ago. There is no mystery or need for a Rosetta Stone to try to decipher anything. Here is the roster breakdown and how things have been set up for many years . . .
- A 2 down bigger back that will see the most carries (BJGE, Ridley, Blount, etc.)
- A back up that gets at least an entire series to himself each half (a Burkhead type), sometimes more if effective.
- A pass catching / 3rd down back (Woodhead, Vereen, White)
- A developmental guy that doesn't usually play a ton (a rookie back, JJ Taylor, etc.)
- A depth guy that might get a few carries / snaps but is normally a special teamer (Bolden).
The one player that seemed to be utilized differently was Lewis, but he had injury issues and NE went out and added Blount to be the bruising back, making Lewis more of that gets-some-carries-and-receptions-but-not-a-heavy-workload back as described above.
To echo what I posted earlier in this thread, things get harder to decipher when guys are hurt . . . which happens a lot in NE. Last year, both Harris and Michel looked good when the other was out, but there were only 2 games when they both played together. In those two games, Burkhead was out for the season by then, but Harris had 27 carries, Cam had 21 carries, and Michel had 17 carries (to illustrate how disruptive Cam is to the RBs).
I posted in other threads that the talk out of camp every year is that PLAYER X has good hands, could be a receiving threat, is seeing routes out of the backfield, etc. Reporters say that every year and only the anointed receiving back will ever get many targets. Last year it was Harris, this year it's Stevenson. When Michel showed up it was him. I posted in another thread that in the past 15 years, the only NE back to get 100 carries and 20 receptions in a season was Lewis. For some reason, they don't buy into an every down back theory. At most, they show that every now and again they COULD have their primary ball carrier see a target or two as a potential threat, but they hardly ever go that way scheme wise.
This year if guys are healthy, I expect Harris to see 60% of the RB carries, Michel 30%, and the other guys the leftovers. I don't expect Stevenson to do much, as BB typically red shirts rookie RBs. White will get his targets as always and an occasional third down carry to try to fool the defense.
The one season when Blount went crazy and scored a ton of TDs (2016), Lewis was hurt and they carried fewer RBs that season. Since then, they have added more RB depth on their roster. They likely will roster Harris, Michel, White, Stevenson, Taylor, and Bolden. Taylor may end up going back and forth to the practice squad if everyone is healthy.
One thing Michel has an advantage on is the past couple of years his blitz protection has become stellar . . . as in he can completely neutralize blitzers or take on a D-lineman on his own and give the QB time to get the ball out. I can't make that claim about Harris (at least not yet).
With Cam as QB (and there are plenty of media folks suggesting it would take a lot for Jones to take over), Harris' value isn't that great. He will lose a lot of touches and TD opportunities to Cam. They also added Henry and Smith as red zone threats, which should also take away some potential scoring chances in the red zone.
I am not really buying the Stevenson-is-threatening-to-take-Michel's-roster-spot speculation. Michel overall was excellent last year and is playing for very low dollars on a rookie contract. Where else are they going to find a competent and experienced back that knows their system? He's not costing them very much. Add in that BB usually sits mid-round rookie backs, and I think Michel will stick. I suppose Michel could get traded, but he wouldn't bring back much in return.
I would guess Harris will get a steady 13-15 carries a game, sometimes more here and there. But very few receptions and not a lot of TDs. His had his own injury issues last season, and his availability has become something to monitor. The part I am murky about is what would happen if Jones were to take over and what impact that would have on Harris. IMO, the threat of Cam running helped the RBs last year, so even though Newton stole carries from the RBs, he likely opened up some running room for them. We know Jones isn't going to take off running, so defenders could better key on the RBs. Plus the Patriots would likely look to pass more with Jones under center. So probably more carries but potentially smaller lanes and shorter gains.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
60% huh?
That might be worth having.
That might be worth having.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
60% of RUNNING BACK carries . . . WHEN HEALTHY. On a team that has a QB vulturing lots of carries. And hardly any receptions or TD. On a team that struggles to score points.
Last year the RBs had a total of 365 carries or basically 22-23 per game. 60% of that would have been about 13.5 carries a game . . . which is in the range I mentioned. Harris averaged 13.7 carries a game last year. As covered already, he averaged 0.5 receptions a game and 0.25 TD a game.
Like always, with a full contingent of RBs available each week, all of them tend to kill the fantasy value of the others. Once people go down to injury, the next man up has more value. As I mentioned, more carries would become available if Cam wasn't playing.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I guess we will see. I may draft him again.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
It should be noted before expecting any duplication of this that for Lewis’s brief, half-season healthy prime in 2015 he was arguably the nastiest runner in the league. God that was fun to watch.
I like Harris’s talent and think he will stick and is potentially young enough to outlast the system but I’m glad I got him cheap in dyno and he’s a backup for me right now. I’d be very uneasy pencilling him in for more than back-end rb2 production this year
rockaction
Footballguy
Just saw this on Twitter. Reiss is the plugged-in beat reporter for the Patriots:
"I see Damien Harris as the RB1, and it's pretty decisive." - @MikeReiss talking #Patriots on @SiriusXMFantasy
"I see Damien Harris as the RB1, and it's pretty decisive." - @MikeReiss talking #Patriots on @SiriusXMFantasy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
There’s (seemingly) always value to be found in the New England backfield. Last six years their RBs in full PPR:
3rd-6th-2nd-3rd-3rd-10th
(Cam vultured 12 TDs)
Problem has always been which of the five guys?
Honestly don’t think there is anyone on the Pats I’m targeting in redraft.
rockaction
Footballguy
Right. But sometimes there is an exception to the rule. It could be that Harris has a firm grip on the job and will get lots of carries this year. If Cam finds the bench in Week Four or Five, then all systems are really go.
Unless Rhamondre Stevenson...
Which is the problem. Belichick doesn't care about stats and seems to like interchangeable guys to do specific things at running back.
It's just that I've never heard a fairly unanimous media lining up behind somebody in the Patriots backfield in camp before. We'll see if it continues. Something to watch out for.
