TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
In that redraft, my thought went from "WTF you doing" to "Well Played" ... at the end of the day, you probably got the best version of all players involved with the best discount baked into the price.
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RB Damien Harris, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Fariq
- Start date
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I appreciate you asking but honestly I don't really do projections. History tells me not to ever trust the NE backfield, so that will probably still hold true despite it looking favorable at the moment.
To my amateur eyes, I think Stevenson lacks some of the physical power of Harris as a straight ahead runner, so I'm cautiously optimistic that Harris retains a good chunk of the goal line carries this season. Stevenson definitely has talent, but his running style seems to trend more toward the "big guy who doesn't play to his size" style rather than a Blount-type to me.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I agree. I've read several expert opinions that Cam's release means Damien Harris will get a boost because he'll see several more goal line carries. But I'm not sure you can bank on this. Rhamondre Stevenson is a bigger back, and it's conceivable that the Pats relegate the goal line duties to him.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed,TVT 0 N S T A said:
Happy it played out this way for you mcintyre1
He doesn't have to get all of the vacated goal line carries in order to get a boost. Cam and his 137 carries, 592 rushing yards, and 12 rushing TDs are gone- it's only logical that Harris gets a boost by his departure (same for Stevenson). How much remains to be seen.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
I think Macaroni Jones is a much better passer than Cam and will be able to extend drives. Plus Cam had nobody last year to help. The Defense is returning some major contributors and will likely get the ball into the O's hands. I could certainly see adding more GL touches than those 12 Cam had.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Bill says he loves Harris, reports of him are great, OL is fantastic, 2 main competitors for rushes and goal line are gone.
Yet Harris's ADP has barely changed in non-PPR. I don't get it. I understand that there is always baked in uncertainty with NEP, but there aren't that many variables. Could Rhamondre somehow really upset the apple cart? Maybe.
Harris is still going well behind Javonte Williams, Henderson, Edmonds, Kareem Hunt who I think are in clearer timeshare situations (maybe not Edmonds, still a little unclear there). And I think that Harris's upside is way better than Mike Davis or Myles Gaskin. For me, that puts him clearly at RB21. And I think that his upside is almost definitely better than Montgomery, Swift, Sanders and maybe even Robinson.
Anyway, my main dilemma now is whether to grab him at pick 41 or risk waiting until pick 55.
Yet Harris's ADP has barely changed in non-PPR. I don't get it. I understand that there is always baked in uncertainty with NEP, but there aren't that many variables. Could Rhamondre somehow really upset the apple cart? Maybe.
Harris is still going well behind Javonte Williams, Henderson, Edmonds, Kareem Hunt who I think are in clearer timeshare situations (maybe not Edmonds, still a little unclear there). And I think that Harris's upside is way better than Mike Davis or Myles Gaskin. For me, that puts him clearly at RB21. And I think that his upside is almost definitely better than Montgomery, Swift, Sanders and maybe even Robinson.
Anyway, my main dilemma now is whether to grab him at pick 41 or risk waiting until pick 55.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Not too long ago (2016-2017???) Legarrette Blount (NEP) was more/less a league winner based on rushing TDs. Harris got 7 carries inside the 5yd line in 2020... Cam scored double digit rushing TDs in 2020... seems like easy call, no?
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
I think people have been burned in the past by the NE backfield and probably have a bias or hesitancy there. How much Stevenson is used remains to be seen but removing Cam and Michel from the equation makes Harris a top 15 option IMO.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
well none of the ADP charts that I can seem to find have him moving up, but if you do a mock draft simulation at fantasypros, he is now consistently going in the early 4th round, so...
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I've been running best ball 12 team drafts on DraftKings and Underdog pretty consistently for the last month or so and I'd say he's crept up from ~round 9ish to round ~5-6. Sometimes he still hangs around until 7 or 8, but I don't think I've seen him go as high as the 4th yet.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I can see the logic behind having Harris ahead of Hunt and William's who I consider 2nd options in their timeshare situations for their teams this season.
I would still have Swift Montgomery and Sanders ahead of Harris as 1st options for their teams.
Harris will still time share with White and/or Taylor and it's possible Stevenson gets looks at the goal line as well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Lots of things at play here . . .
FBG has Harris' ADP at RB27 / 67th overall. I think that's probably about right. Sure, Newton is gone, leaving 139 carries and 12 TD behind. But that doesn't mean Harris will get that (or that those plays will still be rushing plays.)
There's a very good chance that Harris' projected workload doesn't change at all. With Michel gone, Sony's touches likely will get spread out among Taylor and Stevenson. With Cam gone, that could easily mean that those running plays become passing plays. The Pats added two red zone tight ends this off season and a passing QB. While Cam only had 8 passing TD, it's not crazy to think Jones could approach 25 passing TD.
The year Blount went nuts scoring TD, the other RBs were dinged (and there were a lot of situations where NE found themselves at the goal line). Blount had 18 TD in 16 games that season . . . meaning that he scored 16 times in 33 other games. Generally speaking, the combined production for NE backs is usually in the Top 5 in the league. But they have so many backs contribute to that that they rarely have any single player worthy of a starting fantasy spot. White had an atypical year with double digit TD one year (but no other year close to that). As mentioned, Blount had a single big year (with nothing close to that). Lewis had one decent year (but not his other years in NE).
Due to some seasons with injuries and having to play street free agents in the playoffs, BB has gone on record that he will now carry more guys and not overwork them to have them available all season long. Harris will likely again be a 13-15 carry back and the rest of the carries split among the other RB. That's just what BB does, and I would not expect him to change how he does things after 20+ years. (I suppose it's possible after an off season of Bill doing not Bill things, but I wouldn't say that it's likely.)
IMO, Harris is still a fantasy RB3 / flex play. I don't see him getting used as a receiver (seeing how NE has White and Taylor as guys they've been using out of the backfield and have been trying to get Stevenson some screens and dump offs). Add in the more pass friendly QB option and passing in the red zone is something that they should do a lot more than they did with Cam around. Add in that Harris hasn't proven he can handle a big workload and that he was dinged a couple times last year, and I would still have Harris in the RB 25-30 range in PPR leagues. I would project him with around 225 carries and 1,000 yards with 6 TD or so (with limited receiving numbers) if he stays healthy. I know people love to project RB to have big workloads, but last year only 10 RB managed to have 200 carries on the season.
FBG has Harris' ADP at RB27 / 67th overall. I think that's probably about right. Sure, Newton is gone, leaving 139 carries and 12 TD behind. But that doesn't mean Harris will get that (or that those plays will still be rushing plays.)
There's a very good chance that Harris' projected workload doesn't change at all. With Michel gone, Sony's touches likely will get spread out among Taylor and Stevenson. With Cam gone, that could easily mean that those running plays become passing plays. The Pats added two red zone tight ends this off season and a passing QB. While Cam only had 8 passing TD, it's not crazy to think Jones could approach 25 passing TD.
The year Blount went nuts scoring TD, the other RBs were dinged (and there were a lot of situations where NE found themselves at the goal line). Blount had 18 TD in 16 games that season . . . meaning that he scored 16 times in 33 other games. Generally speaking, the combined production for NE backs is usually in the Top 5 in the league. But they have so many backs contribute to that that they rarely have any single player worthy of a starting fantasy spot. White had an atypical year with double digit TD one year (but no other year close to that). As mentioned, Blount had a single big year (with nothing close to that). Lewis had one decent year (but not his other years in NE).
Due to some seasons with injuries and having to play street free agents in the playoffs, BB has gone on record that he will now carry more guys and not overwork them to have them available all season long. Harris will likely again be a 13-15 carry back and the rest of the carries split among the other RB. That's just what BB does, and I would not expect him to change how he does things after 20+ years. (I suppose it's possible after an off season of Bill doing not Bill things, but I wouldn't say that it's likely.)
IMO, Harris is still a fantasy RB3 / flex play. I don't see him getting used as a receiver (seeing how NE has White and Taylor as guys they've been using out of the backfield and have been trying to get Stevenson some screens and dump offs). Add in the more pass friendly QB option and passing in the red zone is something that they should do a lot more than they did with Cam around. Add in that Harris hasn't proven he can handle a big workload and that he was dinged a couple times last year, and I would still have Harris in the RB 25-30 range in PPR leagues. I would project him with around 225 carries and 1,000 yards with 6 TD or so (with limited receiving numbers) if he stays healthy. I know people love to project RB to have big workloads, but last year only 10 RB managed to have 200 carries on the season.
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I agree that Swift, montgomery and sanders have higher median outcomes, but I feel like Harris has the chance at top 10 season if he gets a lot of the goal line work.
I was feeling great about the idea of getting that type of chance with a good floor in the 5th round. Now I’m feeling a little less excited about the value, if he is really going in the 4th, but I guess we will see.
The General
Footballguy
Hard to trust Bill and his RB in fantasy but Damien is getting very little love.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
How much love should we give him? What numbers would you project for him this year? Rushing yards / rushing TD / receiving yards / receiving TD?
The General
Footballguy
One of my trusted pay services loves this guy this year. Has him well above where I am seeing him on most sites.
I’d be very happy with 15-20 carries in week 1, a catch or two. Getting the carries inside the 10 that Cam stole last year. If that happens he’s a steal.
Week one so tough, Bill always a wild card with his RB’s so he’s likely on my bench behind Mostert or David Montgomery but I’m in heavy debate mode.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
he doesn't really deserve any love, I mean what's he do so far? stumbled his way to filling in for Sony last season, then he apparently can't beat out Stevenson? so we have a 1a-1b rB situation?
130 carries, tops. x4.2 per carry = 546 yards..20 recs/160 yards
5 total TD
it'll be a 3 or 4 way rbbc you'll kick yourself for drafting him, or any NE RB for that matter. people are WAYYY too high on M. Jones, I don't see him being anything other than incredibly average. NE is going to have much less time of possession this season, fewer first downs, fewer possessions because IMO they'll have more turnovers than last season, this is a rookie QB , folks, let's not forget it. when mac has his first 3 int game who does BB switch to? don't forget the 8 man fronts Mac Jones will see, ones that will stop their run game in its tracks and make Jones beat defenses. we've seen plenty of Alabama QBs hit the NFL , they succeed about as much as Ohio State QBs do. thats NOT a good stat. deck is stacked against NE offense. Now, if you're telling me Jones has , say, the Jags WRs, or Dallas WRs or Denver WRs, I'd maybe just maybe think that Jones can have success. But Jakobi damn meyers and , Jonnu Smith.???. excuse me while I try to contain my laughter. there is no waay in hell this kid succeeds with this scrapheap of WRs and TEs. point being, Harris won't even get going the defenses are going to stop him on their way to sacking Jones.
130 carries, tops. x4.2 per carry = 546 yards..20 recs/160 yards
5 total TD
it'll be a 3 or 4 way rbbc you'll kick yourself for drafting him, or any NE RB for that matter. people are WAYYY too high on M. Jones, I don't see him being anything other than incredibly average. NE is going to have much less time of possession this season, fewer first downs, fewer possessions because IMO they'll have more turnovers than last season, this is a rookie QB , folks, let's not forget it. when mac has his first 3 int game who does BB switch to? don't forget the 8 man fronts Mac Jones will see, ones that will stop their run game in its tracks and make Jones beat defenses. we've seen plenty of Alabama QBs hit the NFL , they succeed about as much as Ohio State QBs do. thats NOT a good stat. deck is stacked against NE offense. Now, if you're telling me Jones has , say, the Jags WRs, or Dallas WRs or Denver WRs, I'd maybe just maybe think that Jones can have success. But Jakobi damn meyers and , Jonnu Smith.???. excuse me while I try to contain my laughter. there is no waay in hell this kid succeeds with this scrapheap of WRs and TEs. point being, Harris won't even get going the defenses are going to stop him on their way to sacking Jones.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Harris is getting a little overhyped. I think people are projecting him based on what they want him to do not what he will actually produce.
I have him projected at 225-1060-6 | 12-65-0 = 160.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Last year that would have ranked as RB30. His ADP is RB26, but I think more recently he has been going earlier than that.
There were 10 RB that had 200 carries last year. Teams don't feed RB like they did in the past. As for Cam's TD, everyone once to allocate them to the RBs . . . but I would give more to the TE's and WR's. The Pats aren't throwing for only 8 TD with Jones at QB. And Stevenson is likely to be a TD vulture for some TD's as well.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Pretty damn close to the fbg consensus projections
220 1016 7.4 12.7 111 .2
i am hoping he gets off to a hot start so I can sell him like I did with Sammie Watkins after his huge week 1 in 2019.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
That's certainly by coincidence and not by design. I posted my full NE projections in the Patriots thread and did not look at any other projections.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
oh I know, I wasn’t trying to say that. Just saying you aren’t the only one that thinks those numbers are realistic.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have heard beat guys say that he won't be on a pitch count and he could end up with 250 or 300 carries. Except I don't actually believe that (BB has said in recent years he wants to keep guys fresh and have everyone available at the end of the season). Plus I don't think Harris can play in 17 games. Plus we all know NE will have a couple of games where they game plan to pass 50 times and run about 10.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Fumbled. Stevenson starts and goes for 100 and a TD next week.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Scooby1974
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It was worse for Stevenson. He was due to sit out the rest of the game but Harris got hit in the head and had to come out for a play. In that one play, Stevenson couldn’t handle the rush and Jones got hit. That was the play when MIA got called for roughing the passer by tackling below his knees. BB is reluctant to play rookies for both those reasons (fumbling and blitz pickup).
There’s already speculation that Stevenson might be deactivated next week and JJ Taylor inserted instead.
There’s already speculation that Stevenson might be deactivated next week and JJ Taylor inserted instead.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
If I had to bet, I'd bet on Harris getting the bulk of the work again next week. Because I traded him away for this reason, and Belichick has nothing but hate for my particular fantasy team.
But really it's because they have nobody else. I'll bet he already regrets trading Michel away. Harris got hurt on one play, and he hasn't ever proven himself as really a workhorse/durable guy at any level. That doesn't mean he can't be, he just hasn't had to.
But who are the Patriots going to run, really? The whole darn league is looking for running backs, it seems. Too bad the position got so devalued, the NFL might actually have some.
But really it's because they have nobody else. I'll bet he already regrets trading Michel away. Harris got hurt on one play, and he hasn't ever proven himself as really a workhorse/durable guy at any level. That doesn't mean he can't be, he just hasn't had to.
But who are the Patriots going to run, really? The whole darn league is looking for running backs, it seems. Too bad the position got so devalued, the NFL might actually have some.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He was gassed by the end of the game. There were times he asked to come out, and he was not the same player he was in the first half. He usually won't get the workload he got yesterday . . . Stevenson was pulled early in the game for fumbling. In most games there will be a second back spelling him . . . if not two. Harris is not built like Henry. If they keep giving him that big a workload there's no way he will finish the season without breaking down and getting hurt.
Timmay
Footballguy
I agree with you on the 1-2 players spelling him because that is what NE does, but as far as being gassed, I think that is a bad take....It was week 1, a lot of players were gassed and/or cramping yesterday as always in week 1. He asked to come out after 3 runs b2b2b, you'll see even the best of the best RB's do that at times.
He might not get 25 touches again this year, but he should get the majority of the touches moving forward, what that majority of touches are, not even Belichick knows that.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No one knows who will get injured, so of course even BB can't guess who will get what. In the past 10 years, here are the touches by the back with the most touches each season: 142, 259, 216, 212, 306, 171, 149, 188, 296, and 190.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
...and Stevenson missed a pass block that nearly got Mac Jones killed. That never bodes well for more playing time.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I dunno. one carry for a loong TD does not a starting RB make. he looked very average on his other carries. I'd be selling high on this guy .
