Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
While I wouldn't look forward to facing him, I'd be fine with the Pats tying up all that cap space for a 30 year old RB, instead of adding WRs.
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RB Derrick Henry, TEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Nah, they’d never pay a RB that much. They’re too busy paying two TE they never use that money instead.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Many, at least compared to last Year’s ff playoffs version of the line.
Ran Trading him would make me willing to deal him. Unless he’s in Miami. That trio would be scary.
Told ya.
The discussed market on the radio is a third or fourth for him.
They'd lose 6 mil (iirc) in cap space and their star and only get a third?
No way that happens
Faust
MVP
PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
2022: 1,257 (1st)
joey
Footballguy
Man crushPFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Some of the mocks have them drafting either Paris Johnson or Skoronski in the first round. I hope they are correct.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
zamboni
Footballguy
That's some stat. The main concern is how much that line took created more wear and tear on him - he obviously gives a lot more out than he takes, but that's a lot of pounding and he's got a lot of mileage.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's some stat. The main concern is how much that line took created more wear and tear on him - he obviously gives a lot more out than he takes, but that's a lot of pounding and he's got a lot of mileage.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
Imo we can estimate another 3 seasons at a normal workload for him (obviously injuries aside). Then another couple if he wants to hang on with decreased carries but then he probably won’t be worth the contract he’d likely get from some team.
Would you rather have 3 seasons of the
or Jahmyr Gibbs?
zamboni
Footballguy
3 seasons at this workload seems optimistic, but if anyone can, I guess Henry can.That's some stat. The main concern is how much that line took created more wear and tear on him - he obviously gives a lot more out than he takes, but that's a lot of pounding and he's got a lot of mileage.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
Imo we can estimate another 3 seasons at a normal workload for him (obviously injuries aside). Then another couple if he wants to hang on with decreased carries but then he probably won’t be worth the contract he’d likely get from some team.
Would you rather have 3 seasons of the
-OZ-
Footballguy
The man only has 1750 carries for his career. I see no reason he couldn’t continue to average 20-25 rushes each game. Better if he had a better OL to minimize some of the contact.3 seasons at this workload seems optimistic, but if anyone can, I guess Henry can.That's some stat. The main concern is how much that line took created more wear and tear on him - he obviously gives a lot more out than he takes, but that's a lot of pounding and he's got a lot of mileage.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
Imo we can estimate another 3 seasons at a normal workload for him (obviously injuries aside). Then another couple if he wants to hang on with decreased carries but then he probably won’t be worth the contract he’d likely get from some team.
Would you rather have 3 seasons of the
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well you’re overlooking (or ignoring) the obvious reason he may not be able to do that - or at least do it effectively.
-OZ-
Footballguy
he hasn’t slowed down yet.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’ve been around long enough to know that sometimes the cliff comes quickly.
I’m not saying he can’t be effective after 30, but it has to at least be a concern.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sure. It’s possible. But we haven’t seen any indication yet.You’ve been around long enough to know that sometimes the cliff comes quickly.
I’m not saying he can’t be effective after 30, but it has to at least be a concern.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The indication is his age.Sure. It’s possible. But we haven’t seen any indication yet.You’ve been around long enough to know that sometimes the cliff comes quickly.
I’m not saying he can’t be effective after 30, but it has to at least be a concern.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Hasn't it been shown that age is a better indicator of decline than touches? DH is entering his age 29 season and so far has defied the odds. But the end comes quickly as we've seen.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That’s the point of the “cliff coming quickly”. Anyhow I’m not really trying to say he can’t do it, just that saying there’s no reason to doubt him rings a little hollow (imo).Sure. It’s possible. But we haven’t seen any indication yet.You’ve been around long enough to know that sometimes the cliff comes quickly.
I’m not saying he can’t be effective after 30, but it has to at least be a concern.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Once he gets past the line the players he runs into start getting smaller and smaller. Until they have no wish to run into him.
-OZ-
Footballguy
we’ll see. I get all that. Just saying my expectations. YMMV
zamboni
Footballguy
That's a big only. 1500 carries tends to be the dropoff, as this case study shows (albeit from 2020).The man only has 1750 carries for his career. I see no reason he couldn’t continue to average 20-25 rushes each game. Better if he had a better OL to minimize some of the contact.3 seasons at this workload seems optimistic, but if anyone can, I guess Henry can.That's some stat. The main concern is how much that line took created more wear and tear on him - he obviously gives a lot more out than he takes, but that's a lot of pounding and he's got a lot of mileage.What I've been saying. The Titans line was awful.PFF Fantasy Football @PFF_Fantasy
Derrick Henry's rushing yards after contact over the last five seasons:
He ran for 1538. 1257 of those were after being hit. That's Barry like, only the elite type stat.
Imo we can estimate another 3 seasons at a normal workload for him (obviously injuries aside). Then another couple if he wants to hang on with decreased carries but then he probably won’t be worth the contract he’d likely get from some team.
Would you rather have 3 seasons of the
To be sure, there are always exceptions, and Henry has already been one this past year - but the longer he goes on, the more he defies the odds. Certainly possible given how much of a beast he is, but as others have alluded to above, the odds of hit hitting the cliff are higher than him continuing to dominate.
The Frankman
Footballguy
it was a fake rumor
kutta
Footballguy
Henry to the Bengals would be a beautiful thing.
FFCollusion
Footballguy
Frank Gore is an interesting comparison, because Frank Gore never carried the ball like Henry. Gore had 280+ carries only once in his life, and it was his 2nd year in the league. Henry has done it 3 times already in his 4th, 5th, and 7th years.
If the discussion is aging in carries, accelerated by breaking certain limits within certain time frames, Henry carries significantly higher risk than Gore. Even if we only look at age and workload, then this year will likely be Henry's last elite season. Gore's final efficient season was age 29, he entered the year with 1,653 carries.
Henry is 29 and entering the year with 1,750 carries.
After that point Gore fell to 4.1, 4.3, 3.7, 3.9, and 3.7 yards per carry, averaging about 1050 yards rushing on 260 carries for the next 5 years. Which for padding stats and real NFL, is great. For fantasy RBs, isn't. We had 15 guys break 1000 yards rushing last season. We're talking about Henry as a top 5 fantasy back. The cliff, at least for me, is about his fantasy relevance, not his NFL relevance.
Marshawn Lynch's last good season was age 28, he entered the year with 1,955 carries on his legs.
Steven Jacksons last good season was age 29, he entered the year with 2,138 carries on his legs.
Adrian Peterson's last good season was age 30, he entered the year with 2,054 carries on his legs.
LeSean McCoys last good season was age 29, he entered the year with 1,898 carries on his legs.
LaDainian Tomlinson's last good season was age 28, he entered the year with 2,050 carries on his legs.
Realistically, I think Henry has at least 1 more elite season in him possibly 2 based on the examples above, which for 2023, is all that matters right now. But I also completely understand everyone wanting to be 1 year early rather than 1 year late and can't fault them. I myself am obviously in that boat, in that, I'm not targeting Henry at all, but I'm not intentionally avoiding him either. If he falls to me at a value spot, I'll draft him and not lose any sleep.
But we're in that very scary range of hitting 1800-2000 career carries where historically the cliff has come, even for the HOF talent RBs.
This year Henry is 29 entering with 1750 carries.
Next year he'll be 30 entering with 2000+.
If the discussion is aging in carries, accelerated by breaking certain limits within certain time frames, Henry carries significantly higher risk than Gore. Even if we only look at age and workload, then this year will likely be Henry's last elite season. Gore's final efficient season was age 29, he entered the year with 1,653 carries.
Henry is 29 and entering the year with 1,750 carries.
After that point Gore fell to 4.1, 4.3, 3.7, 3.9, and 3.7 yards per carry, averaging about 1050 yards rushing on 260 carries for the next 5 years. Which for padding stats and real NFL, is great. For fantasy RBs, isn't. We had 15 guys break 1000 yards rushing last season. We're talking about Henry as a top 5 fantasy back. The cliff, at least for me, is about his fantasy relevance, not his NFL relevance.
Marshawn Lynch's last good season was age 28, he entered the year with 1,955 carries on his legs.
Steven Jacksons last good season was age 29, he entered the year with 2,138 carries on his legs.
Adrian Peterson's last good season was age 30, he entered the year with 2,054 carries on his legs.
LeSean McCoys last good season was age 29, he entered the year with 1,898 carries on his legs.
LaDainian Tomlinson's last good season was age 28, he entered the year with 2,050 carries on his legs.
Realistically, I think Henry has at least 1 more elite season in him possibly 2 based on the examples above, which for 2023, is all that matters right now. But I also completely understand everyone wanting to be 1 year early rather than 1 year late and can't fault them. I myself am obviously in that boat, in that, I'm not targeting Henry at all, but I'm not intentionally avoiding him either. If he falls to me at a value spot, I'll draft him and not lose any sleep.
But we're in that very scary range of hitting 1800-2000 career carries where historically the cliff has come, even for the HOF talent RBs.
This year Henry is 29 entering with 1750 carries.
Next year he'll be 30 entering with 2000+.
Given your reasoning, what do you think he's worth in dynasty to a contender?
FFCollusion
Footballguy
I suppose it depends on who you currently have and what you have to give up to get him, and if he REALISTICALLY puts you over the edge to be a favorite for the championship.
gump
Footballguy
Especially compared to the RB typically available in that range. I’m doing a 180 on Henry from being on my Do Not Draft list this summer.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
A lot of people go by averages by position but I'd rather go by the individual player case by case. Henry still seems to have it, at least for this year.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
He's pretty much untradeable imo, unless you have inexperienced leaguemates that are completely oblivious to the rb cliff. If you're a win-now team and you have Henry or Kelce, you ride these guys into the dirt. Every rational leaguemate is going to assume one or two big years from Henry at the most. And then they're going to assume that he's completely done mattering in fantasy thereafter.
That's probably the most likely outcome, but if there's going to be a unicorn that does smash through his age 32 season, where none of the rules seem to apply, it's going to be someone like Henry. Maybe the cliff isn't as steep as everyone assumes, maybe he lands on a high powered offense and just eats short yardage TDs to the extent of being a viable low-end fantasy RB2 until age 33. Nobody is going to pay you with those expectations in mind, but it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities. If you're a contending team, you might as well just hold and enjoy whatever is left of the ride.
dmac37
Footballguy
Last 3 weeks sounds awesome for Spears time to shine. Good chance one of the following takes place- Henry is traded once Titans are out of contention, workload takes it's toll or the Titans just want to see if Spears can be the guy moving forward.
Insein
Footballguy
It's not like Jax is a juggernaut in that division. Titans will be in contention all year.
Chaka
Footballguy
Sincere question: does that ever actually happen?
Insein
Footballguy
It never does.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
First year I’ve ever drafted him, and it’s in a high stakes format, so guaranteed this is the year he falls off the cliff.
My bad.
My bad.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Thank you so much. Even when I find myself not agreeing wholly (or sometimes not even mostly) with your posts, I find them enlightening and intriguiging, which I appreciate very much.
As for the Henry post, the thought that crossed me is you pointed to several examples of RBs that fell off after having one more impact season, following comparable career mileage... How many other unnamed RBs have fallen apart after similar usage without another impact season? Without looking at all, I'd guess the number and names are just as compelling.
Riding Henry until the wheels fall off. Guy isn't even 30. Dude could lose speed and still be an effective 4.0 YPC grinder with upside of 10+ TDs.
I think he's a hall of fame talent with at least 2-3 years of RB1 production in him. His size is what makes me comfortable. Even if he loses some burst, he's still going to be trucking through people and throwing defensive backs around with his nasty stiff arm.
Other aging RBs don't have his brute size and strength to compensate. I think he can adjust and stay productive as he ages for that reason. He's built from a different mold. Hard to compare other backs and typical regression to him because he is an outlier.
I think he's a hall of fame talent with at least 2-3 years of RB1 production in him. His size is what makes me comfortable. Even if he loses some burst, he's still going to be trucking through people and throwing defensive backs around with his nasty stiff arm.
Other aging RBs don't have his brute size and strength to compensate. I think he can adjust and stay productive as he ages for that reason. He's built from a different mold. Hard to compare other backs and typical regression to him because he is an outlier.
Deamon
Footballguy
Wondering if this is why you asked the Kelce question. I do think there's a big difference as RB's can't play at an older age like receivers can, and generally teams have drafted their replacement already and are eager to get said replacement getting reps.
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