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RB Devon Achane, MIA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
>>Achane forced a missed tackle on 29% of his career attempts, tied for 5th among Power Five backs since 2020<<
Faust
MVP
jtd13
Footballguy
But did McDaniel pound the table? This is the inside info we really need.
If both are available to me on the clock, I probably take Miller, but him and Achane are together in a tier. I'm pretty comfortable taking him 1.09+ in rookie drafts (single qb).
Birdie048
Footballguy
SAME ... I have Kendre Miller over Devon Achane due to the Knee / medical issues.
Short term potential might lean Achane for 1-2 years ... but in my rebuild, I am looking for more than a few games value for a 1st
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you have the wrong small back. Spears has the knee/medical problems. Achane doesn't seem to have any from a quick Google search.
I might have to actually seriously consider this guy if he falls far enough. Most years, he'd be an automatic DND because of size alone, but we'll see.
I'll call it Taking the "A" Chane in honor of Duke Ellington.
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rockaction
Footballguy
"Charlie Braun! You won a bowling trophy and they spelled it wrong! I can't believe they spelled it wrong!
Charlie Braun11!!11!! You're something else, Charlie Brown."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Why are people ignoring Achane's size? Besides very few RBs his size amounting to anything in fantasy (Sproles, Dunn), it seems to me as if the fantasy community is ignoring this. I would much rather draft Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, and certainly Charbonnet over him. Players like Achane have predominately been gadget players. By all means, please tell me something that will change history?
Achane is a lot more talented than most guys his size have been. He was never a gadget player in college, and he's also going to a team that spreads defenses thinner than basically anyone in the NFL, as defenses have to cover basically every yard of the field due to Hill/Waddle, so Achane should see mostly 6-man fronts.
I see Achane as a high-end RB3 as a rookie. I won't argue too strongly if someone prefers Charbonnet (worse situation, but probably a better actual player) but Miller or especially Johnson I think is crazy. Achane is WAY more talented than those guys and has a better situation.
Speaking as a Bears fan, I don't get the Roschon Johnson hype. He's likely in a 3-man RBBC where the best runner on the team is the QB. What's the upside? He leaves the other 2 RBs in the dust? That feels very unlikely as Herbert just led the NFL in YPC, and Foreman has been quite solid the last 2 years.
Another important note for Achane in my opinion, is Miami only had 4 picks in the entire draft, and decided Achane was worthy of their 2nd highest one. I think he's walking into the starting job there. Jeff Wilson is JAG, and Mostert is solid when healthy, but rarely healthy.
Birdie048
Footballguy
TY! You are correct. My apologies!
Why do people play the lottery?
Because they are bad at math?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not a gadget player in college has NOTHING to do whether he is in the NFL.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with playing the lottery, but there is a big difference in play $5 instead of $100. I'd much rather have Kendre Miller, Zach Charbonnet, Chase Brown, or Roschon Johnson.
jtd13
Footballguy
If I were ignoring his size he'd be higher on my board. He's a really good athlete and a good runner of the football, and I've seen him running between the tackles through contact against NFL players. But the size is definitely still a big concern.
The main issue I have with his size is it means most coaches aren't going to give him a workload. There was one running system I thought had a good chance to give him run as at least a 50/50 backfield split, and he landed in that system. It doesn't erase the concern, but it lessens it.
Plus what's my next best option at 1.09 in the draft? Rookie TE I have to wait 3 years to see if he's good, RBs drafted later who are sharing the field with other good young RBs, super athletic QB that makes Matt Jones stats as a college passer look good (yeah the guy they turned into a wr before the draft even happened), or late declare day 2 WRs like mingo and Reed? I don't fault anyone taking those guys over Achane, but it's a "pick your flavor of risk" range in this draft.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's how I feel about Young(size) and what Carolina did to move the stars and moon to get him
Meanwhile Miami waited until 84 and it's not like Achane will have to do all this on his own.
Hill and Waddle outside will create some running lanes for him to dart thru.
He might not be someone you think of as a top 20 RB week in and week out but I bet he rises quickly.
Mostert is 31 and injury prone. Jeff Wilson was brought in to help shoulder the load, he also gets dinged up a lot.
I still think there is plenty of room for someone to establish themselves with 12-15+ touches a game at RB for the Miami Dolphins.
Achane has very good hands and that was sorely lacking for Miami last year at RB, he's going to help expand the offense.
I rip most Miami selections for a variety of reasons and many times I'm right but this is one instance where I was on this guy prior to the Draft and then lands in our laps.
A gadget playing behind other toys and gadgets like Hill and Waddle, he should be able to carve out 80-100 total yds a week in this offense.
Doubtful he will see a lot of redzone or goal line work
I do see a lot of similarities with Warrick Dunn and that's exciting for Miami. It took Dunn a while to adjust to the NFL but eventually he found his groove.
Miami's OL will ultimately decide what this kid's future holds.
Did it take Dunn a while to adjust? He had 1440 YFS, went to the pro bowl, and won rookie of the year.
Its likely asking a lot for Achane to do any of those things, but the price seems really low for a guy, walking into potentially 200 touches. I've got Achane 6th overall in my rookie rankings, behind the big 2 RBs, the best WR(JSN), the WR walking into 100 targets (Addison), and the sky high upside QB (Richardson)
-OZ-
Footballguy
Why did the panthers take Bryce?
Totally acknowledge that a small RB has more risk and is really unlikely to be a workhorse but the guy has talent to perform. If he’s the next sproles that’s success (at least for the 🐬)
The Warrick Dunn comp is reasonable. Archane caught 96 passes in 3 years of high school, caught wheel routes (check out the over the shoulder vs ALA), seam routes, and lots of flat routes at Texas AM. He returned 2 KOs for TDs in college on only 20 attempts. He should be a top KR in the NFL. He's tough up the middle, breaks tackles at a good rate. Mostert is his main competition, he looked good last year, breaking more tackles up the middle than I expected from another speed guy.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was a huge Dunn fan and when you look at his raw stats it would seem he took off but as a Bucs fan and season ticket holder at the Sombrero and also the C.I.T.S. @Capella
(Inside joke, me n Cap) I also remember some of his rookie rushing stats including 11/17, 10/27, 10/9, 7/17, 9/4 and there's a reason Mike Alstott got a lot of carries. But that's where I see Achane, part of a 2-Back rotation and honestly the 2nd RB isn't on the Miami roster right now. I'm talking '24 because I feel Mostert will either retire and move on at 32 and Jeff Wilson can easily be replaced in the Draft next year. Bucs utilized Dunn's receiving skills a lot. He caught 260 balls over 5 seasons in Tampa with guys like Trent Dilfer and Shaun King chucking the ball.Achane paired with a more traditional power back would be ideal going forward for Miami. There's still guys available and walking the streets, Miami would lose very little if they parted ways with any of the RBs I mentioned already signed on the roster.
I'm glad you see the value or possibility of something brewing in Miami with him. Especially since Coach MM says he was eye balling him for a couple years.
I agree with you that there's a ceiling here for a variety of reasons and projecting Dunn like numbers might be a stretch
But I also feel there are easy points or chunk plays that a Miami RB can exploit with such riches at WR stretching the field and typically pushing opposing defenses into Nickel/Dime packages quickly. If Achane can't bust a couple draw plays and delayed hand offs every week, something is wrong.
4.32
I'm just saying
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rockaction
Footballguy
When Cosell points out he doesn't have loose hips and a lot of that is straight line speed then one has to worry a bit.
But 4.32 is no sneezola nor snoozefest.
You could argue that guy is really a Rorschach test for drafters -- how much do you scout film and how do you view outliers in the NFL, but I'd say even that is a flawed premise and the real question is this:
How do you view the NFL's view of outliers?
I don't think the NFL works well with them. Yeah, McDaniel gives you pause, but what happens when things start to go just a bit awry due to size? Then the rubber meets the road. I can't see taking this guy in the first round of rookie drafts, though it is so tempting. His situation is perfect and his speed and power for his size are indeed something to write home about. He looks like a running back. But he's small.
There's the rub.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Anyone hear the Dolphins' plans regarding using Achane on special teams?
I think ultimately Achane's value will simply come down to how many touches he gets on offense. If he gets the touches, there's a high likelihood he produces in that offense. While some league settings include KOR/PR, I think if we were to hear Miami is NOT going to use DA on ST it would go a long way to cementing his status as a 14-18 touch guy on offense. I'd much rather have that than a 12 touch guy who gets 4-5 of those touches via ST.
I think ultimately Achane's value will simply come down to how many touches he gets on offense. If he gets the touches, there's a high likelihood he produces in that offense. While some league settings include KOR/PR, I think if we were to hear Miami is NOT going to use DA on ST it would go a long way to cementing his status as a 14-18 touch guy on offense. I'd much rather have that than a 12 touch guy who gets 4-5 of those touches via ST.
TBD whether Archane gets used on KOR. He returned 20 kicks offs in college, 2 for TDs including one versus Alabama. He is likely to be used on KOR. Note that Mostert returned 25 KOs in 2022. I think Archane is better suited for KOR than Mostert at his age.
Archane didn't return punts in college.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
One of my favorite players in the draft. I was really hoping the Eagles found a way to get him. They’ve had great success with smaller backs like Sproles and Boston Scott mostly due to their elite OL. I envisioned 10 touches on offense plus returns. It will be interesting to watch if it comes together for him in MIA
titusbramble
Footballguy
Hoping my (SF) draft pans out where I can either take at 14, or make a small trade up to get him, but I'm not holding my breath
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He shouldn't be a 1st round pick in any league, but that may be just me.
massraider
Footballguy
Nah, I don’t think so either.
But worth the spot, and is maybe your flex during bye weeks, which is a guy who you need.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
3rd round RB drafted into a good situation on a good offense with wide open opportunity has always been a 1st round pick, even when RBs were getting drafted much earlier in the NFL.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Knock yourself out then.
Miami signed Braxton Berrios who is one of the best returners in the NFL. I'd be surprised if he wasn't returning both kicks and punts.
Achane performed vs SEC teams ... ALA, LSU, UF, etc. 38 carries versus LSU for over 200 yards after missing a couple of games with a foot injury. He has patience, vision, speed, balance, and power for his size.
His pass receiving skills exceed those of Wilson and Mostert. The Dolphin RBs in 2022, excluding FB Ingold, had 58 receptions on 90 targets. I could see Archane getting 40 receptions in 2023, that's 2-3 per game. Plus about 25 KOR, same as Mostert had in 2022. 8 carries per game puts Archane over the 200 touch threshold. That would still leave over 200 carries for the other RBs, possibly over 250, since McDaniel said he wants to run more, carries mostly for Mostert and a little bit for Wilson.
His pass receiving skills exceed those of Wilson and Mostert. The Dolphin RBs in 2022, excluding FB Ingold, had 58 receptions on 90 targets. I could see Archane getting 40 receptions in 2023, that's 2-3 per game. Plus about 25 KOR, same as Mostert had in 2022. 8 carries per game puts Archane over the 200 touch threshold. That would still leave over 200 carries for the other RBs, possibly over 250, since McDaniel said he wants to run more, carries mostly for Mostert and a little bit for Wilson.
Berrios for PRs and Archane for KORs, IMO. Archane was elite in college on KORs.
I think what you are saying here is how it goes.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Well I ended up snagging him at 1.10 in one league. He’s a guy that was very landing spot dependent for me and it doesn’t get any better than Miami for his skill set. Not sure I’m a true believer but his stock seems like one that could rise quite a bit rather quickly and if it does, I’ll likely be looking for a well timed exit.
I think Achane is above KRs. Besides, Berrios was a 1st team all-pro KR in 2021, and is better on KR than PR. I don't see wasting KR touches on Achane when you have an elite KR already, and don't have a great RB.
I'll stick to about 12-13 carries, and 3-4 catches for Achane weekly. Figure Mostert gets about 9-10 carries a week, and Wilson is an insurance policy behind both, but probably a pure backup.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wildly optimistic. If you could promise me that, he's at least worth the 1.06 or 1.05.
I've got him as the 1.6 in my book.
rockaction
Footballguy
i actually typed, "You've got him at the 1.05 or 1.06 then" but didn't want to put words into your mouth.
If your prediction is correct, that's where he should wind up going. I've got him at 1.05 if what you're saying is right.
(What you're saying is right isn't right, though.
)Right now, my rookie draft board is:
i actually typed, "You've got him at the 1.05 or 1.06 then" but didn't want to put words into your mouth.
If your prediction is correct, that's where he should wind up going. I've got him at 1.05 if what you're saying is right.
(What you're saying is right isn't right, though.
1. Bijan
2. Gibbs
3. JSN
4. Addison
5. Richardson
6. Achane
7. Johnston
8. Flowers
9. Charbonnet
10. Kincaid
11. Young
12. Stroud
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Taking Achane at 6 is poor use of value. Just sayin.
Trade down
Trade down
If he's a target you sure can't move much though. He's gone in 8 drafts of mine since yesterday and he went 7 in two of them, at pick 9 in four of them and then 11 and 12 in two. If I believed he was getting 13-14 carries and 3--4 receptions I'd not be fooling with moving past 7.
massraider
Footballguy
I have QJ above Achane, but otherwise my same top 6, and after that, I can make an argument for anyone.
And you gotta figure there gonna be some fun weeks with that offense
And you gotta figure there gonna be some fun weeks with that offense
