I'd call it easy going with Zeke over those RB's as well but I mainly play in FFPC drafts and he's going multiple rounds over those RB's in that format. More in the company of Akers, Hall and Montgomery types, in addition other talent available at other positions.
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RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
jwsbowler
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I do think it makes sense to rank RB by PPG…like how they do BA in baseball…minimum plate appearance type thing.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
No, but when we say Elliott was RB6, that’s total points. But in terms of evaluating his performance, PPG indicate he was RB14.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
Okay, this makes sense... However the true indication is that PPG. in our league with 1/2 point for receptions, he's 16th. A bit miss leading here.
Also, based on the number of games to TD ratio, he's 8th. Fournette (10 in 14 games) and Henry (10 in 8 games). A more truer indication
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
That’s very misleading though, right?
I find looking at rankings like that to evaluate a player is fools gold, at minimum. There’s a reason that he is slipping in this years drafts and it’s not because he was RB6 last season.
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Oh I agree 100%. I was just pointing out what the other poster was referring to.
Not misleading at all. He finished as RB6 last year. And most of that was hurt.
I understand the PPG argument, but the point is, the guy can be relied on. And if (and all players carry this) IF he can stay healthy, no reason he cannot be top 10 again this year.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
This time of year, it’s mostly sharks that do drafts. So paying attention to these ADP’s over the years has helped me tremendously. These sharks this year are not on board with what you are selling. It doesn’t mean that you are wrong and that they are correct. So we’ll see how the 2022 season shakes out. But I tend to listen and pay attention to what the sharks are doing.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This time of year is also when ADP is more influenced by dynasty leagues where any RB who is over 25 is being discounted.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think this is a fair point, although even redraft pundits also seem to be shying away from him for similar reasons. Even on FantasyPros redraft rankings, I see he's listed as RB17 (vs RB25 in dynasty).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I'm no shark (more a celephod)but I think he presents value at that price in both formatszamboni said:
zamboni
Footballguy
His ADP is so depressed compared to last year that it's hard not to think he's a value at first glance but I think he's appropriately priced. I do think he'll see a lot of volume but I likely won't end up with him on many teams. I've seen the splits before and after injury but Zeke will play the season as a very old 27. He has more than 1,600 career carries and almost 2,000 touches and it's hard not to think that he could continue to get banged up and be more susceptible to injuries. There's very little chance that he's on the Cowboys next season, as the team has an out after this year, and it's entirely possible that they absolutely run him into the ground to get whatever they can out of him, but he still needs to be effective. His carries look like this the last 4 years:
304
301
244
237
Pollard's look like this over the last 3 years:
86
101
130
This trend should continue and I wouldn't be surprised to see Zeke closer to 200-210 carries and Pollard closer to 165-180 carries this year. Zeke is being drafted as a mid-range RB2 and that feels about right to me. I can see him having a season very similar to what Melvin Gordon did last year - around 1,100 total yards and 8 td's. And that's a productive season. I just don't think the ceiling is what it used to be and I prefer ascending players (ie Breece, Etienne) in that same range who have a chance to be league-winners.
304
301
244
237
Pollard's look like this over the last 3 years:
86
101
130
This trend should continue and I wouldn't be surprised to see Zeke closer to 200-210 carries and Pollard closer to 165-180 carries this year. Zeke is being drafted as a mid-range RB2 and that feels about right to me. I can see him having a season very similar to what Melvin Gordon did last year - around 1,100 total yards and 8 td's. And that's a productive season. I just don't think the ceiling is what it used to be and I prefer ascending players (ie Breece, Etienne) in that same range who have a chance to be league-winners.
I think this sums it up well.
As an example his ADP, which has been rising, in the FFPC/FBG leagues over last few days is basically tied with Hall, one spot ahead of Akers a few spots behind Connor and more then half a round ahead of David Montgomery.
Perhaps they are all value but again just comped to similar RB's I don't think Elliot's value stands out, that group is more of a pick your flavor to me.
matuski
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Most seem to agree, but it's hard to say for sure with the PCL injury happening so early in the season.
I imagine after a few weeks into the season, we'll have a pretty good idea about whether the trend last year was real or it was just a hampering injury thing.
Per OTC and Sportrac, Zeke is due only 10.9MM in non-guaranteed base salary in 2023 and has a cap # of $16,720,000, so you're saving $4,860,000 if you trade Zeke. Unless they both have their info wrong or the article is confusing a post June 1st cut in their numbers which would free up another $5MM but shift it into 2024.
Ultimately it likely comes down to is if it was the injury that held him back and he's healthy and bounces back or is he actually done as to whether they part ways next year. Seems cheaper to let Pollard walk, draft someone to backup in 2023 and eventually replace Zeke who you cut or restructure to backup $ in 2024 (2023 draft should be amazing for RB's.) But that assumes you can squeeze hopefully another decent year or two out of Zeke.
Ultimately it likely comes down to is if it was the injury that held him back and he's healthy and bounces back or is he actually done as to whether they part ways next year. Seems cheaper to let Pollard walk, draft someone to backup in 2023 and eventually replace Zeke who you cut or restructure to backup $ in 2024 (2023 draft should be amazing for RB's.) But that assumes you can squeeze hopefully another decent year or two out of Zeke.
Plus Jerry loves Zeke. Sells a lot of jerseys
If he plays well this year, I can definitely see them working something out for another year or two
Chaka
Footballguy
He was just as mediocre in 2020 as 2021. The offensive line is older and lost a key piece in Collins and...Pollard.
It's tough to have high hopes for Zeke this year and beyond.
Play-by-play:
Zeke 7 yards
Pollard -8 yards
Zeke 6 yards
Zeke 5 yards
Zeke 2 yards
Pollard -1 yard
Zeke 7 yards
Pollard 1 yard
Zeke 5 yards
Pollard 6 yards
Zeke 6 yards
Zeke 7 yards
Zeke 5 yards
Pollard 6 yards
Pollard 1 yard
Zeke 2 yards
Let's not forget Zeke is BY FAR a better pass protector. And you wonder why your QB got hurt.
They abandoned him far too early.
Zeke 7 yards
Pollard -8 yards
Zeke 6 yards
Zeke 5 yards
Zeke 2 yards
Pollard -1 yard
Zeke 7 yards
Pollard 1 yard
Zeke 5 yards
Pollard 6 yards
Zeke 6 yards
Zeke 7 yards
Zeke 5 yards
Pollard 6 yards
Pollard 1 yard
Zeke 2 yards
Let's not forget Zeke is BY FAR a better pass protector. And you wonder why your QB got hurt.
They abandoned him far too early.
zamboni
Footballguy
Thought Zeke looked pretty good out there. Certainly nowhere near the player we saw earlier in his career, but a bit more burst and was breaking tackles. That said, between Dak out, seeming lack of use in the passing game (other than to block) and continued OL woes, I don't see a ton of upside for him. Or Pollard either for that matter.
Banger
Footballguy
Agreed. I took the Pollard end of the backfield in most leagues but that offense was clueless with Dak…penalties, line problems, no downfield threat…forget it now that Dak is out half the season. You might be able to spot start Zeke based on weaker matchups but I don’t see a lot of hope outside of that. Same goes for Pollard owners….this offense is DOA and McCarthy is a dead man walking.
zamboni
Footballguy
Possibly, but injuries are obviously fluky and can and do happen on any play. Might have happened anyway with or without Zeke.
I thought he looked good. Consistent 5 yard runs against an excellent run D and after losing another starting offensive lineman.
Moving forward, the only chance the Cowboys have is to run Zeke 20 plus times a game.
rockaction
Footballguy
The other teams are just going to stuff eight in the Box against Zeke. He'll be awesome at falling forward for four yards. He's great that way.
Let's face it -- without Dak, this offense is cooked. Stick a fork in the Cowboys. The only drama this season is whether Parsons gets the sack record. He just might.
Let's face it -- without Dak, this offense is cooked. Stick a fork in the Cowboys. The only drama this season is whether Parsons gets the sack record. He just might.
zamboni
Footballguy
Mainly money but also to keep Rush (and soon Dak again) from being obliterated.
Better pass protection. Pollard didn't see the CB blitzer earlier in the game. Zeke is averaging 4.5 ypc, not bad.
rockaction
Footballguy
This aged like ****.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
Zeke should be getting more carries. He looks really good this season. I like Pollard, but for some reason he reminds me of Jerious Norwood. Home run hitter but not a bell cow in the making. Zeke can still punish defenses, and allowing him to do so can only help Dallas win games. I wish I had a stake, I believe he's in for a great back half of the year provided Dallas doesn't start calling plays like the 2000 Rams when Dak comes back.
The Frankman
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
They are using both to keep them fresh. If you combine Zeke and Pollards carries they equel a heavy day at the office for a RB but without all the abuse to one guy.
This is (just one of many reasons,) why nobody will break Emmitt Smiths record.
zamboni
Footballguy
I have little doubt that Zeke is the better RB in terms of a few of the important - if less fantasy relevant - things that are critical for the position: pass protection, getting tough yards, among them. Pollard is certainly more explosive but we'll see how he does having to handle all the feature back responsibilities.
