RB Flood 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Sleeper 43]

So we got the following FAs in 08:

Chris Brown

Maurice Hicks

Jamal Lewis

Mewelde Moore

Vernand Morency

Artose Pinner

Fred Taylor

Michael Turner

Then we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date:

Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr.

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr.

Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr.

Felix Jones, Arkansas

Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr.

Ryan Torain, Arizona St.

Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr.

Mike Hart, Michigan

James Davis, Clemson

Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec

Ian Johnson, Boise State

Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn

Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So

Justin Forsett, Cal, Sn

Keep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...

Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft?

Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?

I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

 

[GreedoShotFirst]

all of th FAs except for Michael Turner will be backups.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

all of th FAs except for Michael Turner will be backups.

Several should consider themselves lucky if they are even that.

 

[switz]

So we got the follow FAs in 08:Chris BrownMaurice HicksJamal LewisMewelde MooreVernand MorencyArtose PinnerFred TaylorMichael TurnerThen we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnIs 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

I'll comment first on the FAs...Chris Brown <-- coudln't get signed this offseason, doubt he gets a startign gig anywhereMaurice Hicks <-- probably will go unsignedJamal Lewis <-- he'll retireMewelde Moore <-- may get signed cheaply as a backup/ST player somewhereVernand Morency <-- totally dependfs on what he does this yearArtose Pinner <-- no one will sign himFred Taylor <-- might get a shot at a starting gig on a bad team a la Edge, or JAX resigns himMichael Turner <-- some team will bring him in to startAs for the rookie RBs, right now it's way too early to tell, some of these guys will get injured, some just won't live up to expectations... I'm actually not super high on any of these guys right now.

 

[Fodasme69]

So we got the follow FAs in 08:Chris BrownMaurice HicksJamal LewisMewelde MooreVernand MorencyArtose PinnerFred TaylorMichael TurnerThen we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

Fred Taylor signed a 3 year dealBarber III and JJ will also be FA's next year

 

[BLOX]

Wow, if I'm a GM I'm not signing a FARB to big money. It looks like there are going to be starting caliber RBs available in all rounds of the draft.

Can't wait.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Some Minny radio guys were talking that M. Moore might be traded this season to another team.

 

[Lash]

McFadden will be drafted by Dallas

mark it down

Barber and Julius and Jamal and Turner will start elsewhere

Jamal will not retire and I can see him re-signing with CLE on a year-to-year basis til they draft a RB

 

[zamboni]

Don't overestimate where RBs get drafted - as we've seen, with a few top-tier exceptions, RBs are obviously valued more highly in FF than by the NFL. Thus, while many rookies may be viewed as solid prospects, that doesn't mean they'll go in the 1st or 2nd rounds and brought in to start. It all depends on the caliber of the draft overall.

 

[Sleeper 43]

So we got the follow FAs in 08:Chris BrownMaurice HicksJamal LewisMewelde MooreVernand MorencyArtose PinnerFred TaylorMichael TurnerThen we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

Fred Taylor signed a 3 year dealBarber III and JJ will also be FA's next year

Barber is a RFA and seldom do teams pay the asking price (see Turner and SA)Fred Taylor while I know under a new contract will still be released or traded. his contract makes it obvious... this year its around 850k and then the next 3 years ramp up starting at 2 mil a year. The contract was set-up basically for Fred to save face.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Don't overestimate where RBs get drafted - as we've seen, with a few top-tier exceptions, RBs are obviously valued more highly in FF than by the NFL. Thus, while many rookies may be viewed as solid prospects, that doesn't mean they'll go in the 1st or 2nd rounds and brought in to start. It all depends on the caliber of the draft overall.

Will you not admit though as of this time of year there is an abnormal amount of good looking prospects?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...

I agree there is a coming glut, but I'm not convinced the 08 class will realize the considerable hype next April. As well as another back or two may emerge, be sure two or three listed will disappoint. The bigger threat may be several underclassmen staying in school. Slaton has already said he was. We'll see. I don't believe him either. But, Stewart and McFadden are the only two I consider locks. Davis seems like with Spillar "behind" him. But Felix and Charles are very good candidates to stay in school. I have no feel for Rice, but my gut says he's another solid candidate to remain in school.Then you have overrated players who I doubt have any NFL impact. Ore and Bernard have put up some nice numbers, but they don't have NFL chops as far as I can see. I like Forsett, but he is very small. We'll see, but he's not likely to be featured in the NFL. I like Ian Johnson a lot, but he's in a very iffy group with Torain, Choice, Hart, Savage and a few others. These college kids probably won't create a real glut next year. It will be a two year process, I think.

 

[coolnerd]

Then we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

At the end of the day, not all of the Jrs. will come out in 2008. At least one or two these guys will not play well which will offset the guys that develop this year. Also, a couple have better names and college production than their eventual draft position will warrant. I see a more interesting class than 2007 draft, but it won't change FF. While I don't know specific names because I am not pyshic, like draft classes before it:we are currently overranking some of these guysinjury will occur either in college or early in their pro careera couple will get drafted into a less than ideal situations, so at minimum we will have to waita couple more will flat out stink as pro playersone or two guys drafted on the 2nd day or UDFA will emerge from nowheresome mediocore veteran will keep the "more talented" younger player in RRBC or the bencha new class will emerge making us forget how excited we were about the 2008 group

 

[Sleeper 43]

McFadden will be drafted by Dallasmark it downBarber and Julius and Jamal and Turner will start elsewhereJamal will not retire and I can see him re-signing with CLE on a year-to-year basis til they draft a RB

My moneys on Limas Sweed only because Barber wont fetch the draft picks required by a RFA.He plays at Texas... nice money generator and with T.O ageing they need the next WR star to groom, Crayton and Hurd aren't gonna cut it.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

just repeated coolnerds thoughts.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Then we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

At the end of the day, not all of the Jrs. will come out in 2008. At least one or two these guys will not play well which will offset the guys that develop this year. Also, a couple have better names and college production than their eventual draft position will warrant. I see a more interesting class than 2007 draft, but it won't change FF. While I don't know specific names because I am not pyshic, like draft classes before it:we are currently overranking some of these guysinjury will occur either in college or early in their pro careera couple will get drafted into a less than ideal situation, so at minimum we will have to waita couple more will flat out stink a pro playersone or two guys drafted on the 2nd day or UDFA will emerge from nowheresome mediocore veteran will keep the "more talented" younger player in RRBC or the bencha new class will emerge making us forget how excited we were about the 2008 group

Oppps just missed this one, i basically posted the same thing but you articulated it a lot better.

 

[zamboni]

Don't overestimate where RBs get drafted - as we've seen, with a few top-tier exceptions, RBs are obviously valued more highly in FF than by the NFL. Thus, while many rookies may be viewed as solid prospects, that doesn't mean they'll go in the 1st or 2nd rounds and brought in to start. It all depends on the caliber of the draft overall.

Will you not admit though as of this time of year there is an abnormal amount of good looking prospects?

I'm not a huge college football guy, so I can't say whether there's an abnormal number. I do seem to recall though that several guys in pre-season seem destined to be 1st rounders, only to fade as the season progresses. Also, in the draft itself a few years ago, both Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson looked like they were sure fire top 15 picks, yet both barely made it in the 1st round. It just proves that we FBGs value RBs higher than NFL teams do (again, with a few exceptions). Given that, I would think a more proven guy like Turner would have a better shot at being the guy than a rookie.

 

[SigEp316]

Isn't Deuce McCallister available next year as well

I was thinking he was....he can start somewhere.

 

[zamboni]

Isn't Deuce McCallister available next year as well I was thinking he was....he can start somewhere.

IIRC, he signed a long-term deal before he got hurt. That doesn't mean he can't be cut though, if Bush shows he can be an everydown guy and the cap hit wouldn't be too damaging.

 

[Bizkiteer]

I think NFL teams value RB's as much as FF'ers, it's just they are realistic about the longevity of the RB's. Thus, when it comes to using your 1st rounder...do want that RB who will be productive for a few yrs or another player at a position that could be around for 10 yrs. Evert team in the NFL knows you have to have a good running game to succeed, so the value of a good or great RB is there, they just know they can get a decent guy later...other than the high rounds too. They want more for their worth when spending a 1st or a high 2nd.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Then we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

At the end of the day, not all of the Jrs. will come out in 2008. At least one or two these guys will not play well which will offset the guys that develop this year. Also, a couple have better names and college production than their eventual draft position will warrant. I see a more interesting class than 2007 draft, but it won't change FF. While I don't know specific names because I am not pyshic, like draft classes before it:we are currently overranking some of these guysinjury will occur either in college or early in their pro careera couple will get drafted into a less than ideal situation, so at minimum we will have to waita couple more will flat out stink a pro playersone or two guys drafted on the 2nd day or UDFA will emerge from nowheresome mediocore veteran will keep the "more talented" younger player in RRBC or the bencha new class will emerge making us forget how excited we were about the 2008 group

I agree with everything your saying minus that we will forget about this class.Dynasty forced me long ago to follow college prospects and I have yet to see this many RB prospects this far in advance before. I know some wont pan out but that will more than likely be negated by new guys that emerge.I understand some Vets will make the rookie sit on the bench but thats kinda my point, there is so much talent theres going to be RBBC controversy all over... it may be 2/3 years from now like Commish says but I think this could be the beginning of a surplus. Maybe WR's become the new RB 2/3 years from now All this seems far off but I think it hold some importance if you doing say an inaugural dynasty this year.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Don't overestimate where RBs get drafted - as we've seen, with a few top-tier exceptions, RBs are obviously valued more highly in FF than by the NFL. Thus, while many rookies may be viewed as solid prospects, that doesn't mean they'll go in the 1st or 2nd rounds and brought in to start. It all depends on the caliber of the draft overall.

Will you not admit though as of this time of year there is an abnormal amount of good looking prospects?

I'm not a huge college football guy, so I can't say whether there's an abnormal number. I do seem to recall though that several guys in pre-season seem destined to be 1st rounders, only to fade as the season progresses. Also, in the draft itself a few years ago, both Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson looked like they were sure fire top 15 picks, yet both barely made it in the 1st round. It just proves that we FBGs value RBs higher than NFL teams do (again, with a few exceptions). Given that, I would think a more proven guy like Turner would have a better shot at being the guy than a rookie.

See im not concerned so much with where they go in the draft, that doesn't mean they still all wont go to teams and that they still wont have a chance to fight for a job.

 

[coolnerd]

Then we got potentially one of the biggest RB classes to date: Darren McFadden, Arkansas, Jr. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon, Jr. Steve Slaton, West Virginia, Jr. Felix Jones, Arkansas Jamaal Charles, Texas, Jr. Ryan Torain, Arizona St. Ray Rice, Rutgers, Jr. Mike Hart, Michigan James Davis, Clemson Tashard Choice, Georgia Tec Ian Johnson, Boise State Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State, Sn Brandon Ore, Virginia Tech, So Justin Forsett, Cal, SnKeep in mind the 1-3 RB's that emerge in their final season too...Is 08 the year all teams go RBBC going forward? Will top Rookie prospects sit like SJAX did? Will the FA's get the shaft? Could this change Fantasy Football as we know it?I just see more supply than demand in a LONG time

At the end of the day, not all of the Jrs. will come out in 2008. At least one or two these guys will not play well which will offset the guys that develop this year. Also, a couple have better names and college production than their eventual draft position will warrant. I see a more interesting class than 2007 draft, but it won't change FF. While I don't know specific names because I am not pyshic, like draft classes before it:we are currently overranking some of these guysinjury will occur either in college or early in their pro careera couple will get drafted into a less than ideal situation, so at minimum we will have to waita couple more will flat out stink a pro playersone or two guys drafted on the 2nd day or UDFA will emerge from nowheresome mediocore veteran will keep the "more talented" younger player in RRBC or the bencha new class will emerge making us forget how excited we were about the 2008 group

I agree with everything your saying minus that we will forget about this class.Dynasty forced me long ago to follow college prospects and I have yet to see this many RB prospects this far in advance before. I know some wont pan out but that will more than likely be negated by new guys that emerge.I understand some Vets will make the rookie sit on the bench but thats kinda my point, there is so much talent theres going to be RBBC controversy all over... it may be 2/3 years from now like Commish says but I think this could be the beginning of a surplus. Maybe WR's become the new RB 2/3 years from now All this seems far off but I think it hold some importance if you doing say an inaugural dynasty this year.

There has been much debate as to whether we currently have more RRBC than we have had in the last 25 years. I believe that the teams who get some real stud will ride him. Example from what we have seen Turner appears to a legitimate NFL talent RB in the NFL, but he is not taking a significant number of carries of LT2's hands. The level are team like the Cowboys, who have two decent RBs, but neither is good enough to be the "man," so they are RRBC, If they had a real guy I think that they would ride him. Finally, a team like the Titans will propbably wind up as a RRBC team because at the moment none of their option look good. When Fisher has had a legitimate number 1, George and one year of Travis Henry, that guy has gotten most of the work with little controversy.I just believe that eavery year roughly 1/3 of the offenses will be stud oriented, 1/3 will be manned by two average guys, and 1/3 will fall into the other categories because talent and injury dictates. Not a stats guy, but I think that if we look at the last 15 or so years we see this pattern is pretty consistent. I think the future will mirror this pretty closely.