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RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
Ingram net > 60% snaps one time all last year and his competition was Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
habsfan
Footballguy
Ingram is healthy, a trusted vet and is doing his job. I would fade the new guy a little.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Most are, his adp has plummeted this month. I didn't think he'd be a consideration and he still might not since I'm drafting with a bunch of drunk buckeye honks, but if he's there after I'm done with wr he's in the queue.
They also played with double digit leads for a lot of the season. Several weeks Ingram was great in the first half, then may as well have left at halftime.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Don't read too much into #4 talk. It's just veteran bias at the moment. The cream will rise.
The Finist
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I believe Ingram will still be the guy in 2020, but I do think Dobbins will be fantasy relevant. Next year is a different story.
In my draft the other day I got Ingram a couple rounds after Dobbins. I love it when veteran players get thrown out with the trash in favor of the shiny new toy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Nope......I'm talking straight redraft this season holmes...I don't do dynasty.....if I did, I would think Dobbins would be high on my draft board though.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Look I get ur mostly talking dynasty.....my only point was Ingram is being severely under valued this season......and my bigger point is that vets get tossed out in FF as soon as the shiny new toy gets drafted......sometimes the new guy takes over, sometimes he doesn't pan out even if his draft stock was higher. Chris Carson and Rashad Penny come to mind.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
Ingram's stock is clearly on the rise.
I took him at 5.03 in my original 12-team snake draft (took Dobbins later round) last week.
In the 12-teamer that I did last night, Ingram went 2.12!! Dobbins won't supplant Ingram, barring injury of course
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ADP-wise thats very unusual.
Ingram = 3.11
Dobbins = 6.06
So you either reached for Dobbins or Ingram fell way too far? Otherwise I don’t see how that’s possible.
I play with some guys who want the shiny new toy, so they reach.....scoring is very unique as well. Big bonus points for longer TD's.
The more I think about it, my league is prolly not a good comparison to more standard scoring setups, on player values!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would have jumped all over Ingram in round 4-5. Solid - I could see Dobbins going way before him in dynasty. I’m squeezing every last drop of Ingram’s magic juice I can get as he’s essentially worthless in trades.
but man - I couldn’t see taking Dobbins in redraft that rarely. Barring injury I think it’s still Ingram’s backfield as the lead dog. Baltimore runs a lot so Dobbins should have value, but I can’t see him taking over unless Ingram gets knocked out of the picture.
I got Ingram in the early 5th of a 12 team limited keeper league. With the keepers more like mid 6th. Dobbins went 2 picks before at 5.1. Keeper value played a role there but no reason for Ingram to slip so far. Then I got Ingram at 56 overall in a Rb heavy scoring league. My 4th Rb and I can play 4! Sometimes weird things just happen. Dobbins really slipped. Don’t think he went until the 80s.
I think some of what's happening is based on hype, and not having a preseason or much info to see how these situations will play out....sometimes preseason will show us that at least......my league with funky scoring so we tend to throw out ADP anyway......add that all together, and you have guys being drafted at odd times relative to ADP.
Michaelsmith110
Footballguy
So just got a trade offer in my Dynasty league. CEH for Dobbins straight up. I’m not worried about year 1, but year 2 and beyond who do you all think is the better play.
Bet on the one you like better, there's a pretty good chance that both are correct.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is a tough one as I think they are both tier one players which means they both could have a top 12 fantasy season within the next 3 years.
I think Dobbins is the more talented player of the two and that matters a lot to me. Both are in great situations as far as their QBs and supporting casts. Hard to say which one is better for a RB between the two but I would give the nod to KC and Andy Reid although Jackson is great too and the Ravens offense more focused on the run leading to possibly greater opportunity overall. Andy Reid passing to the RB mitigates that advantage though. Both are great offenses for a RB to thrive in just in slightly different ways.
I care about the first 3 seasons of these players careers and this year I expect CEH to outscore Dobbins because of Mark Ingram still being good and being more competition for carries than I think CEH has with Williams and their other RBs. You said you do not care about the first season however, your team perhaps in a rebuilding situation as reason for that, I do expect Dobbins to be the Ravens feature RB in 2021 and then both RB will be close to the same value then but not now.
That is a whole year of being able to sell CEH if he is outproducing Dobbins though.
The guy is offering you a fair trade and he must really like Dobbins to be willing to take a hit on value this year for what Dobbins will eventually be able to do. Great question. I can see being on both sides of this and liking it.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
I remember well.
One of my 14-team leaguemates (down to 12 currently) took Olandis Gary that year at 6.12, and I took Portis at 6.14.
Portis fumbled three times in the 3rd pre-season game and everyone thought he would be a bust. 1500 rushing yards and 15 TDs later, I got the last laugh.
If Dobbins takes over the lead dog role in the 2nd half of the year, he can win you your league. Especially with a Fantasy Playoff schedule with the Browns, Giants and Jaguars.
I was down 120 to 10 after the morning games in our championship game. In the afternoon, Portis scored 5 TD's for me and I ended up winning 165 to 132. I also have to thank Jeff Garcia for his 6 touchdowns and The Jaguar defense scoring 25 ish points.
The Ravens spent a high pick on Dobbins for a reason. It'll be slow at first but he is certain to be fantasy relevant sooner than later.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would melt my keyboard with the speed at which I accepted that. CEH is in a prime position to be the next Brian Westbrook.
if you can get CEH for Dobbins I’d do it with velocity that made the Flash jelly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I feel like the word “if” is doing a lot of heavy listing in this paragraph.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
5 TDs to go along with like 250 yards.
I vividly remember firing up my laptop around dinnertime, seeing my game score, and thinking the league software must be broken.
It's a funky distance TD league.....also a 2 QB league so typical ADP doesnt apply.......but yea, Dobbins went too early
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Like in 2021, I agree.
He has a wide range of outcomes this year. He could be a league winner if Ingram went down. He may just get a few touches per game as part of a committee dominated by Ingram with a little Gus Edwards. I think it will be slow at first but he’ll eventually get 10 plus touches per game and be a decent flex. If he is playing at all in the beginning he could be a boom or bust flex. Maybe The coaches feel confident in Dobbins enough to trade Edwards to a RB needy team and this becomes a 60/40 or 50/50 split. Maybe he is so good he takes over.Like in 2021, I agree.
I love betting on talented players in perfect schemes. Lamar is an upgraded version of Justin Fields. You see how having an athletic QB opened up holes for Dobbins in college. Lamar did the same for Ingram. Dobbins adds a break away speed element that Ingram doesn’t have.
He”s a dynasty slam dunk. I love having him on my bench in redraft as a possible big boom type player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, I said as much above - Ingram's health will determine how valuable Dobbins is for 2020 for sure. As long as Ingram is vertical, the team trusts him to be the lead dog.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm going to go ahead and plant my flag here before Sunday's slate. I see this as a 1A/1B/1C situation, where from one game to the next you will see Ingram, Dobbins, and Jackson emerge in some order in terms of rushing attempts and stats. You're obviously starting Jackson. In this offense, I think that gives Dobbins and Ingram pretty safe (and nearly identical) floors. And probably equal ceilings, too.
So you have to give the early season tiebreaker to Ingram for touches but I drafted Ingram on zero teams (and won a ton of money with him last year) because they drafted Dobbins. And so did I. Everywhere. He is going to take over this backfield and it is only a matter of time. 2021 will be the really big year but here is the thing:
NFL clubs that spend high draft capital on RBs *need* to maximize their value by getting them on the field.
The FF and NFL community has talked at great ####### length over the last several years about the devaluation of RBs in today's NFL market. So when they *do* draft a presumed stud RB, they need to get them on the field as early and often as they can. Ingram or not.
So although 2021 will surely be much bigger in terms of his outlook, I think Dobbins has no less than league winning upside and a safe RB3 floor (same range as Ingram) that will grow as the season moves on. I'm going to go ahead and play him as my RB2 in a couple spots, as a flex in a couple others, and despite my post I am also benching him in a couple others.
So you have to give the early season tiebreaker to Ingram for touches but I drafted Ingram on zero teams (and won a ton of money with him last year) because they drafted Dobbins. And so did I. Everywhere. He is going to take over this backfield and it is only a matter of time. 2021 will be the really big year but here is the thing:
NFL clubs that spend high draft capital on RBs *need* to maximize their value by getting them on the field.
The FF and NFL community has talked at great ####### length over the last several years about the devaluation of RBs in today's NFL market. So when they *do* draft a presumed stud RB, they need to get them on the field as early and often as they can. Ingram or not.
So although 2021 will surely be much bigger in terms of his outlook, I think Dobbins has no less than league winning upside and a safe RB3 floor (same range as Ingram) that will grow as the season moves on. I'm going to go ahead and play him as my RB2 in a couple spots, as a flex in a couple others, and despite my post I am also benching him in a couple others.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The Ravens run the ball too much and too effectively, and possibly with many more big leads in the 4th quarter this year like last, to blow off Dobbins. I'm blown away people aren't hotter on him in 2020.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
He looked better than Ingram to me. Edwards a non factor. We’ll see.....
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW Dobbins did have two more snaps than Ingram did.
Steeler
Footballguy
Was this due to the game script and having a big lead? Or did that look like the plan from the start?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd also like to know how much of it was situational, but honestly can't we assume they're going to be playing with the lead a lot? Obviously not all the time, but when I drafted Dobbins I absolutely had this in mind.
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