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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
eighsse2
Footballguy
I offered (James Robinson OR Garrett Wilson) plus my second round pick (could be anywhere, but likely mid to late) for Javonte Williams and his first round pick (likely late). Both offers declined.
ETA: we're QRRWWFKD, so Wilson is not quite as valuable as in most leagues.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I wouldn't accept that either when people are getting CEH plus 1st type offers.
Mike Clay now has him at RB 14 (43rd overall), down from RB 2 and #4 overall pre-season. Seeing him ~RB10 elsewhere, which seems aggressive to me but he is super young so if he gets back to 100% it would be justified.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
"There’s still no guarantee that the running back will be ready by Week 1 in 2023, but this is a good sign."
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's being reported by an ESPN Senior Staff Writer that covers the Broncos:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And now this:
Sounding more and more like Dobbins.
Many were predicting this since he blew out his whole knee. It’s a significantly longer rehab, and carries more risk.
Best of luck to him, and shareholders. Could be a while.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Anything COULD happen right?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Certainly but I feel like these stories get put out to help build fan expectations, so it’s not a shock when a player isn’t ready or the team signs someone who plays a similar role.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or if they (gasp!) draft a RB.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Badie is decent stash.
A few weeks after being signed off the Ravens’ practice squad, Badie made his NFL debut on Sunday and served as the team’s third-string running back. He was given limited opportunities (one rush and one carry), but he made the most of them with a 24-yard touchdown on his first career touch. He is nothing more than a deep handcuff in dynasty for now, but keep him in mind for the future.
A few weeks after being signed off the Ravens’ practice squad, Badie made his NFL debut on Sunday and served as the team’s third-string running back. He was given limited opportunities (one rush and one carry), but he made the most of them with a 24-yard touchdown on his first career touch. He is nothing more than a deep handcuff in dynasty for now, but keep him in mind for the future.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Sorry to hear that but my rebuild effort wonders what his value is for a competitive team to part with him??
As a potential “Buy Low” what is low?
I don’t expect to be competitive until 2024-25 due to complete rebuild.
My guess would be late 1, but would like to hear others perspective….Inquiring minds want to know!
As a potential “Buy Low” what is low?
I don’t expect to be competitive until 2024-25 due to complete rebuild.
My guess would be late 1, but would like to hear others perspective….Inquiring minds want to know!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t trade him for a late first. He’s a hold unless you can get a mid first and teams probably won’t do that right now until they know more about his recovery.
And another one:
@AllbrightNFL
Talked about this last night innthe show with
@sdrotar Expect Javonte Williams to be out longer than probably expected.
Javonte expected to be out longer then expected
I think a late one is fine but either way I'd hold firm for now. Only news on him in next few months likely won't be good and odds are Denver eventually adds a RB. So his value can really only likely fall between now and rookie drafts. Add in general excitement for rookie drafts building and in general I just conclude value of a mid to late one likely rises while his value only falls so I'd hold firm on your price right now.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Wasn't he expected to be slowed or miss time in 2023 right after it happened?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Was definitely speculated due to the severity of the injury
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes - it was comparative to Dobbins in severity.
Some expressed optimism in the interim. Alas, sounds like worst case scenario.
joey
Footballguy
1000% holding in the 2 leagues where I roster him. I would need the rookie RB2 in this years draft landing in a great situation to trade Williams for that specific RB (of course assuming the Bijan/1.1 is not on the table)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He went for a mid 1st in one of my leagues & a mid 1st + 2nd in another.
I would consider moving him for that. Probably not for less.
It’s going to be a long road to recovery. You’d mentioned you’re not competing until 2024-2025, so yeah - I’d hold unless someone offers you something crazy like 2x1sts.
Yes which is why I find the wording as “longer then expected” as concerning. Now maybe he is saying that based on optimistic expectations, that I don’t know.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
Were these two trades today, since the news? Or just generally recently?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No, they were both late season. Rebuilding teams buying on the injury discount.
That said I don’t know what today’s “news” changes - this is what was expected. I guess confirmation is news in a way, but his value is probably still a mid-1st.
If Hall is worth 2x 1sts, I’d think JaWill brings back a 1st.
joey
Footballguy
I wasn’t the one not competing til 24-25 but i am in a rebuild in 1 league where I roster Javonte. In that league I have Herbert, Walker, BIJAN (1.1 pick), Javonte, Allgeier, Olave, Pittman, Andrews (plus Renfrow, Toney, Cooks, Palmer and the 1.6, 1.8, 2.6 and 2.7 picks) so I think I’m middle of the pack at worst and if some of those young dudes work out sooner than later I can see making the top 6 and a playoff spot (but likely not sniffing the Chip).
same in the other league where I roster Javonte. I stunk last year but my core of Taylor, Javonte, Dobbins, Lamb, Kirk, Picken I hope will make me competitive again if Taylor can get back to being a league winner again.
but enough about me. How are you?
Always have to read behind the blurbs on these types of "reports," especially in the dead news zone we are in right now post Super Bowl. There literally is no new information in these tweets/articles at all. Especially Dov Kleimans who is just quoting an offseason article written by Legwold who in turn is citing his own previously written article he wrote 7 weeks ago at the beginning of January. I am not saying whether Javonte makes it back one way or another, but I wouldn't put much stock in a couple of tweets repeating the same information we had back in October as "news."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think the reports today would have his value lower. People heal differently and there was no doubt optimism abound by some people that in 11 months or so past his injury he'd be available opening day or close to it. These reports have to quash that optimism and even if like me you anticipated more of a mid-season return it's hard to not feel a little more pessimistic of that going off without a hitch, as we saw with Dobbins whose injury was a solid 2 months earlier then Javonte's.
Second part of this is if the team believes he's not ready, and it sure sounds like they don't, my guess is they bring in a more competent second RB then what's currently on the roster. Which to be honest I expected anyway since Edmonds is a likely cut candidate and Payton likes a RBBC but this just seems to be to in general ratchet up their need, or maybe put another way confirms the need.
The good news is Payton might be an ideal coach for him when he does return. I say that because he's always favored a RBBC that throws a ton of passes to RB's. That may limit his upside a bit but you like that for Javonte because it means he likely won't be rode hard when he returns but due to passing game volume can put up big stats without needing as much punishing rushing volume. In theory that should help him when he returns.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree - I read it as more of a reminder of how severe his injury was, and reiteration of the original timeline.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No. He’s still worth a 1st. My favorite calc has him at 1.06 almost dead nuts even.
I would not take it for Javonte but I don't think it's an offer you should feel is insulting to make.
The Hindery trade value chart actually has the value of 2.2 and 2.4 dead equal to Javonte and above the 1.6.
I'm having a hard time agreeing with that right now, but it's enough to me to reiterate I would not feel like I'm lowballing someone by offering up 2.2 and 2.4.
Will be interesting to see what Denver does, no 1st or 2nd but do have an extra 3rd rounder, but they also have a lot of roster holes to address (especially their o'line) and limited cap space. Trading for Payton even further depleted their picks too. They definitely are going to need someone to fill the RB hole to start the season given Javonte's injury but they don't have a lot of resources to put into a non-premium position.
With so many FA RB's and arguably deepest draft for RB's in ever I don't think it will be overly costly to get some decent quality depth. Not every RB makes it, some failures, but last year you could get Pierce and Allgeier in 4th-5th round and this year should be even better, plus again the RB's in the FA market will lower the price for all, especially the mids'.
Think that offer would have more traction closer to draft time, especially after the NFL draft and the consensus names get slotted into those pick ranges.
No idea why Hindery would have those two picks worth more than the 1.6 though, 1.9 at best IMO (obviously tier cutoffs once we know landing spots influences that as well.)
not sure if he's thinking that players 5-20 are all like the same guy right now
That's my thought and today I don't think he's far off and from his POV probably pretty hard to do separation based on what we know.
I'll say this though. If I was in a dynasty draft today I'd rather pick 2.2 and 2.4 over pick 1.6 so I'm not going to say his stuff is off, I just think it will likely change as we get inevitable separation.
I agree, especially the "decent quality depth" statement. I would think they would lean more towards a vet if they have rebound aspirations instead of a later round rookie, but could also see a combo of both. Especially after the draft when you can pick up vets that don't count against comp picks. But I can't see them bringing in a "big name" given their constraints. But the RB landscape being what it is, formerly "big names" find themselves looking for barely the vet minimums these days.
Boston
Footballguy
That would be a better on the clock offer...meaning I wouldn't do it now but if the draft fell a certain way I could be enticed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I feel like that chart and the Javonte owner who waited 1+ years to break out and when he finally did he balled out then got hurt would disagree. lol
Like, yeah - it might be fair. But no Javonte owner is going to deal him for less than a 1st.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yea pretty much, don't see major financial commitment type of player or use of their top draft pick. If it's a big name it's someone like a Fournette after Tampa cuts him, not a big payday player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fournette looks kinda washed. - maybe a Mattison? He could be a cheap, effective seat warmer, than a useful part of a committee.
I agree on Fournette but that he's actually really good in pass protection might help him but I just threw his name out because he fit the description of a "big name" who was cheap. Should be a lot cheaper then Mattison who has youth and lack of use on his side. But for sure if I'm trying to actually predict who Denver might sign if they get into the FA market with Mattison's connection to Patton he's the more likely of the two if the price is right.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is quite rich. A significant knee injury in October. It’s a 12-14 month timeline plus we know the initial return from knee injuries is often a slow return to form, often taking another season.
No doubt it’s a great time to buy if you believe in Williams.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ouch. Horrible
