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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (3 Viewers)

Seems like his value is all over the place, most likely takes another hit with this news. Is a 2.2 & 2.4 a fair offer in 1 QB 12 team PPR?
No. He’s still worth a 1st. My favorite calc has him at 1.06 almost dead nuts even.
The Hindery trade value chart actually has the value of 2.2 and 2.4 dead equal to Javonte and above the 1.6.

I'm having a hard time agreeing with that right now, but it's enough to me to reiterate I would not feel like I'm lowballing someone by offering up 2.2 and 2.4.
Think that offer would have more traction closer to draft time, especially after the NFL draft and the consensus names get slotted into those pick ranges.

No idea why Hindery would have those two picks worth more than the 1.6 though, 1.9 at best IMO (obviously tier cutoffs once we know landing spots influences that as well.)
FWIW the same calc has 2.02 + 2.04 worth more than 1.06 as well, 155.7 to 118.1
:shrug:

Shows how subjective calculators are, I plugged it into two others, one has that combo worth in between the 8 & 9 pick. The other has it worth more than the 1.02! Equivalent names it has that combo worth more than: Metcalf, Josh Allen, Kelce, Devonta Smith… lol
 
That is quite rich. A significant knee injury in October. It’s a 12-14 month timeline plus we know the initial return from knee injuries is often a slow return to form, often taking another season.

No doubt it’s a great time to buy if you believe in Williams.
Hall is allegedly worth 2x 1sts.

I was offered him for that a month after the injury. 😬

I agree - apparently there’s only minimal injury discount on either.
 
Hall is allegedly worth 2x 1sts.

I was offered him for that a month after the injury. 😬

I agree - apparently there’s only minimal injury discount on either.
Maybe this is my bias but I see Hall as worth it. He is a year younger, was a better prospect, looked better in NFL action and I believe had a clean ACL tear. Plus the Jets already have Michael Carter so I don't see them investing into RB again. With Williams, there isn't anyone to pick up the slack if he is slow to return. This opens a window where the guy Denver brings in presents significant competition. There is no history of Williams being a workhorse.
 
Hall is allegedly worth 2x 1sts.

I was offered him for that a month after the injury. 😬

I agree - apparently there’s only minimal injury discount on either.
Maybe this is my bias but I see Hall as worth it. He is a year younger, was a better prospect, looked better in NFL action and I believe had a clean ACL tear. Plus the Jets already have Michael Carter so I don't see them investing into RB again. With Williams, there isn't anyone to pick up the slack if he is slow to return. This opens a window where the guy Denver brings in presents significant competition. There is no history of Williams being a workhorse.
I can get with this take. I feel like JaWill owners are willing his value into existence. They waited so long for Gordon to be out of the way, and when the split finally tilted in JaWill’s favor, he looked fantastic - then got hurt.

So that anticipation ~> reward sets them up for a refusal to take much less than peak value.

I wouldn’t pay 2x 1sts for Hall in that specific league simply because it doesn’t fit my total rebuild to consolidate high picks in a RB coming off injury, but yeah - he’s probably worth it.
 
Seems like his value is all over the place, most likely takes another hit with this news. Is a 2.2 & 2.4 a fair offer in 1 QB 12 team PPR?
No. He’s still worth a 1st. My favorite calc has him at 1.06 almost dead nuts even.
The Hindery trade value chart actually has the value of 2.2 and 2.4 dead equal to Javonte and above the 1.6.

I'm having a hard time agreeing with that right now, but it's enough to me to reiterate I would not feel like I'm lowballing someone by offering up 2.2 and 2.4.
Think that offer would have more traction closer to draft time, especially after the NFL draft and the consensus names get slotted into those pick ranges.

No idea why Hindery would have those two picks worth more than the 1.6 though, 1.9 at best IMO (obviously tier cutoffs once we know landing spots influences that as well.)
FWIW the same calc has 2.02 + 2.04 worth more than 1.06 as well, 155.7 to 118.1
:shrug:

Shows how subjective calculators are, I plugged it into two others, one has that combo worth in between the 8 & 9 pick. The other has it worth more than the 1.02! Equivalent names it has that combo worth more than: Metcalf, Josh Allen, Kelce, Devonta Smith… lol
Yeah for sure - I’m using Dynasty Dominator for this one. It’s generally pretty good, allows for any league/roster size, TE-P, .25, .5, & full PPR.

It also accounts for clearing roster spots, which may explain a little of the value discrepancy between 2 picks and 1.

By no means do I believe calcs are the end-all/be-all, but they can be useful. In this case it confirmed to a tee what folks in here suggested as valuation. Interestingly it matched the trade chart as well.
 
I can get with this take. I feel like JaWill owners are willing his value into existence. They waited so long for Gordon to be out of the way, and when the split finally tilted in JaWill’s favor, he looked fantastic - then got hurt.

So that anticipation ~> reward sets them up for a refusal to take much less than peak value.

I wouldn’t pay 2x 1sts for Hall in that specific league simply because it doesn’t fit my total rebuild to consolidate high picks in a RB coming off injury, but yeah - he’s probably worth it.
Yeah totally with you. 2 firsts for Hall only makes sense for certain builds and if you are the type of person willing to invest that heavily into RBs in the first place. There may also be some willing it into existence with Hall from me. He was my guy, 1.01 and the centerpiece to this nice rebuild I am working on. So when he instantly looked like a top 5 NFL RB, it was such a high.
 
Always have to read behind the blurbs on these types of "reports," especially in the dead news zone we are in right now post Super Bowl. There literally is no new information in these tweets/articles at all. Especially Dov Kleimans who is just quoting an offseason article written by Legwold who in turn is citing his own previously written article he wrote 7 weeks ago at the beginning of January. I am not saying whether Javonte makes it back one way or another, but I wouldn't put much stock in a couple of tweets repeating the same information we had back in October as "news."
Excellent post.

Dov Kleinman: Do we really need to contribute to this guy with no contacts making himself into something?
 
Dov Kleinman: Do we really need to contribute to this guy with no contacts making himself into something?
Not sure reposting something here is moving the needle. He’s already got over 100k followers on Twitter including many of the FBG staff. He may not have connections but if he’s tweeting something, people are talking about it. Including your leaguemates.
 
Not sure reposting something here is moving the needle. He’s already got over 100k followers on Twitter including many of the FBG staff. He may not have connections but if he’s tweeting something, people are talking about it. Including your leaguemates
If it's repackaged news that reads like new bad news, which this did, then my first question stands.

Not the end of the world, and if a guy is going to position himself as a news guy, cool. But he's just regurgitating until I see him come with something new.
 
If it's repackaged news that reads like new bad news, which this did, then my first question stands.

Not the end of the world, and if a guy is going to position himself as a news guy, cool. But he's just regurgitating until I see him come with something new.
Yeah I don’t think he’s super insightful and is just doing what Rotoworld and other places do which is aggregate stories. Like I said, I think the bigger value is that it’s something being discussed in fantasy circles. I listen to a few podcasts during the season that I don’t think much of their analysis but I know are popular enough that people in my leagues are probably listening. It’s good to know what information is going around, even if it’s not high quality.
 

Broncos general manager George Paton said Javonte Williams (ACL) is on track to play Week 1.​

Paton's optimism runs contrary to a recent ESPN report that Williams in 2022 tore "multiple" knee ligaments that "could keep him out well into the 2023 season." Paton said Williams is progressing through his rehab and has been jogging with team trainers. This could be a situation similar to what the Ravens faced in 2022 with J.K. Dobbins, coming off a major knee injury that required a carefully managed workload until the season's final month. Williams would be unlikely to shoulder a full workload to start the season if he's able to suit up for the team's opener.
SOURCE: James Palmer on Twitter
Feb 28, 2023 at 10:31 AM ET
 
I know were I already own him and wherever I might add him it will be the expectation he won't be playing in week one and the hope that he'll be relatively close to his normal self by the midpoint.
 
I know were I already own him and wherever I might add him it will be the expectation he won't be playing in week one and the hope that he'll be relatively close to his normal self by the midpoint.
He probably won’t be normal until 2024 at the earliest and “normal“ isn’t guaranteed.
Also, the possibility of complications as with JK Dobbins, who needed a follow up “clean up“ procedure.
 
You probably win more than you lose by betting against these optimistic injury reports.
JK Dobbins hosed me in three high stakes leagues last year. It was my fault for believing the sunshine and butterflies being written about his injury recovery.
Yeah and I was fortunate enough to have him only my DND list. If all the news on a player is good, I can get behind him but when there is mixed news, I am going to always assume the worst at this point.
 
Yeah, far too early to be optimistic and we’ll have to see what reports are come late August before the season starts. Still, it checks the first of many boxes on a road to recovery for JW. It’s certainly a more substantial update than the “reports” from a few days ago.

That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
 
I want to make sure I have this straight...

-Recent reports had Williams being back to full strength more likely in 2024?
-A few days later as teams are preparing for free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft, the General Manager decides to send out a report saying his injured RB will be ready to go Wk1?

What was the advantage there for the GM to make this proclamation all the way back in late February?
Just to help the psyche of Javonte Williams on what is believed to be a very tough road back?
Or is to make Denver appear not as RB starved or needy prior to signing a free agent to help shoulder the load or a Plan B thru the Draft which is loaded at running back?
 
I want to make sure I have this straight...

-Recent reports had Williams being back to full strength more likely in 2024?
-A few days later as teams are preparing for free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft, the General Manager decides to send out a report saying his injured RB will be ready to go Wk1?

What was the advantage there for the GM to make this proclamation all the way back in late February?
Just to help the psyche of Javonte Williams on what is believed to be a very tough road back?
Or is to make Denver appear not as RB starved or needy prior to signing a free agent to help shoulder the load or a Plan B thru the Draft which is loaded at running back?
potentially although they should have no problem finding rb supply this offseason
 
Or
That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
Or they’re taking Gibbs to make him AK 2. One of the 2.
 
Or is to make Denver appear not as RB starved or needy prior to signing a free agent to help shoulder the load or a Plan B thru the Draft which is loaded at running back?
So the GM would be tricking free agents into taking less money because Denver doesn’t really need help?
He could say anything from either spectrum of the recovery time line now. Free agents chase the money - that’s all that will matter.
 
Or
That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
Or they’re taking Gibbs to make him AK 2. One of the 2.

Be tough with no 1st or 2nd round pick for Gibbs but not out of the realm of possibilities. I’d be more realistically concerned about their extra 3rd round pick they have or finding a Pierce type gem in the 4th or later (although easier said than done.)

Denver is cash strapped as well so spending on a “big name” FA seems unlikely too but not something I’d be willing to bet against since they are going to need someone to carry the rock early in the season and they hope to be competitive with Payton coming in.
 
Or
That it’s coming from the GM is interesting as well, could be a smokescreen but at least gives some comfort Den may not go to the RB well heavy in the draft or FA. The proof will be in the pudding though.
Or they’re taking Gibbs to make him AK 2. One of the 2.

Be tough with no 1st or 2nd round pick for Gibbs but not out of the realm of possibilities. I’d be more realistically concerned about their extra 3rd round pick they have or finding a Pierce type gem in the 4th or later (although easier said than done.)

Denver is cash strapped as well so spending on a “big name” FA seems unlikely too but not something I’d be willing to bet against since they are going to need someone to carry the rock early in the season and they hope to be competitive with Payton coming in.
Good points. I suggested DEN might be a good landing spot for Mattison.
 
10. The most fascinating nugget about Denver (and possibly of the whole combine) was about Javonte Williams' health and I'm told there is a VERY wide range of possibilities regarding his return. There is a chance he is healthy to start the year. There is a chance he misses multiple games. And there is actually a chance he misses all of next year. I was told he is currently a lot more hurt than the team is letting on publicly and that the Broncos are secretly nervous. Don't be surprised if the Broncos wind up with Kareem Hunt when all is said and done. Mike Boone is likely gone but Latavius Murray is expected to be back and be in the “Mark Ingram” role for Sean Payton. But Hunt, who is not expected to be back in Cleveland, is said to be a target for Denver. If Hunt winds up in Denver, my source said, you'll know Javonte Williams' injury is a lot worse than they are letting on.

 

The Athletic's Nick Kosmider writes "there's a good chance the Broncos add a running back in the draft."​

Not only to stockpile offensive talent, Kosmider writes, but also to "provide insurance against a delayed return" for third-year back Javonte Williams, who is coming off multiple knee ligament tears. Samaje Perine probably profiles as the head of Denver's committee for the moment, and the rest of the depth chart behind him is quite young and inexperienced. It would make a lot of sense for Denver to draft a running back anyway with this depth chart, and the concern over Williams' injury should only help push them to that conclusion.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Mar 21, 2023, 2:48 PM ET
 

Broncos general manager George Paton said Javonte Williams (ACL) is on track to play Week 1.​

Paton's optimism runs contrary to a recent ESPN report that Williams in 2022 tore "multiple" knee ligaments that "could keep him out well into the 2023 season." Paton said Williams is progressing through his rehab and has been jogging with team trainers. This could be a situation similar to what the Ravens faced in 2022 with J.K. Dobbins, coming off a major knee injury that required a carefully managed workload until the season's final month. Williams would be unlikely to shoulder a full workload to start the season if he's able to suit up for the team's opener.
SOURCE: James Palmer on Twitter
Feb 28, 2023 at 10:31 AM ET
He's already back tracking:

Nick Kosmider
@NickKosmider
·
2h

Broncos GM George Paton on whether RB Javonte Williams will be ready for the start of the season: “We won’t know that for a while.” Adds he is making “great strides” in recovery from his knee injury.

Chris Tomasson

@christomasson
·
1h

#Broncos GM George Paton says it’s too early to know when RB Javonte Williams might be back from his knee injury. “Not sure. He has a long way to go. He’s made strides. But I think we might not know that for awhile.”
 
I inherited him on my first ever dynasty squad orphan adoption project. Missed the opportunity to sell him a year ago. Put him otb a week ago to no avail. I believe in the talent but expect a Dobbins 22 like 23. Maybe a few useful weeks in the second half. I think of him as an undervalued asset for 24. Yaay
 
I inherited him on my first ever dynasty squad orphan adoption project. Missed the opportunity to sell him a year ago. Put him otb a week ago to no avail. I believe in the talent but expect a Dobbins 22 like 23. Maybe a few useful weeks in the second half. I think of him as an undervalued asset for 24. Yaay
As you should, and there's nothing wrong with that especially for a dynasty orphan team. He'll only be 24 in the '24 season.
 
He wasn't lighting the NFL on fire before he got hurt
Sean Payton will be his 4th Head Coach in less than 24 months since he was drafted, let's cut the kid some slack.

I don't know that any of that's true but it seems like the stuff people tend to chirp when they want to defend a guy they liked pre injury
I liked Javonte a lot coming out of college but yeah he wasn't exactly making Mel Gordon disappear and we chalked it up to the genius offense of Vic Fangio and then Hackett
He did look good at breaking the initial tackle.
I might be talking out of my *** however I thought posters were commenting how it took more than one guy to bring him down.

But now he's had some terrible injuries and you don't have a lot to be hopeful for in 2023. I would like to know who Denver is planning as their lead back.
 
Hey if you like him, you like him. He’s played 20 games and has 2 games with over 75 yards rushing. All I’m saying is I’d be as worried about him being nothing more than a committee type back as the injury he suffered.
 
Yeah. 4 year rookie contract.

Year 1- flash tons of potential. No bellcow usage but hope springs from his obvious talent level.
Year 2- irritating lack of bellcow usage by team while still looking the part of being a tackle breaking machine then destroys his knee.
Year 3- Destroyed knee will take most of the year to come back in a more complete way- HOPEFULLY. Perhaps a few games of RB2 usage toward the end of the year.
Year 4.- If all goes according to plan, he's fully healthy and then hoping the team gives him the usage we can actually plug in to a lineup for more than a RB2.
So with a little luck he's in a position to get tagged or earn a decent second contract. Still an OK long term investment.

The talent is/was there, the health is not and the usage is still a projection.
At this time last year he was a top 5 dynasty RB. So were Najee and Swift.
 
Year 4.- If all goes according to plan, he's fully healthy and then hoping the team gives him the usage we can actually plug in to a lineup for more than a RB2.
So with a little luck he's in a position to get tagged or earn a decent second contract. Still an OK long term investment.

The talent is/was there, the health is not and the usage is still a projection.
At this time last year he was a top 5 dynasty RB. So were Najee and Swift.
Year 4 --> Part of a RBBC joined by the 2023 3rd round Rookie RB they pick up as insurance for Jav not fully recovering?
Also has Payton ever had a real "Bell cow RB1" ?? Kamara/Ingram always RBBC touches ..
 
This year will be obviously huge for Javonte, especially with a new coaching regime.

The RB position is very fickle and if he doesn't blossom by the end of the season to what he was, he probably gets replaced next year or mired in a committee. He has draft capital behind him, but a 2nd rounder isn't exactly a reason for the team to not move on.
 
He wasn't lighting the NFL on fire before he got hurt

Yeah that 11 reception game week 1 sure was terrible for fantasy wasn’t it?
You’re really flexing over 11 catches for 60 odd yards?

Do you not get points for catches? Anyway, he had great efficiency numbers splitting time his rookie year, was 2nd in the league in broken tackles after only JT (who had 100 more carries) and in the top 10 in Yards after contact. Poised for big things and highly spoken of by peers and opposing coaches in the offseason. 2022 he played 3.5 games on the worst offense in football and was still putting up similar efficiency stats. Things were looking up as Gordon got relegated to the bench after his fumbles but unfortunately that same week JW blew out his knee. Now we do indeed have to worry about competition and him being stuck in a committee going forward, doesn’t help that Payton has a history of splitting his RB work as well.
 
I inherited him on my first ever dynasty squad orphan adoption project. Missed the opportunity to sell him a year ago. Put him otb a week ago to no avail. I believe in the talent but expect a Dobbins 22 like 23. Maybe a few useful weeks in the second half. I think of him as an undervalued asset for 24. Yaay
Always a difficult situation to try and get proper value for an injured player especially RB. I would buy at a 2nd round pick but chances are most owners want a 1st.
 
I think the Broncos should look at drafting a RB this year. Good depth and talent. Don't need to reach or use pick 68, but could be some good value at 108 or 139. I'm also of belief that Javonte will never be the RB people hope he can be.
 
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I inherited him on my first ever dynasty squad orphan adoption project. Missed the opportunity to sell him a year ago. Put him otb a week ago to no avail. I believe in the talent but expect a Dobbins 22 like 23. Maybe a few useful weeks in the second half. I think of him as an undervalued asset for 24. Yaay
Always a difficult situation to try and get proper value for an injured player especially RB. I would buy at a 2nd round pick but chances are most owners want a 1st.
I imagine most owners are at a “well, I’ve held him for this long, I might as well wait it out” state of mind. That’s me at least in 2 leagues where I roster him.
 
I think the Broncos should look at drafting a RB this year. Good depth and talent. Don't need to reach or use pick 68, but could be some good value at 108 or 139. I'm also of belief that Javonte will never be the RB people hope he can be.
Totally disagree. He'll be more than fine, if healthy, which I'd bet on. Dude's a beast, he just got injured, it's football. He's still young, I expect him to bounce back and won't be over-used (sorry FFs).

But come December, he'll be racking up the yards and they'll be fine with that D.

They need to fortify the OL some more. Plenty to like on this team, who finally has more than a high school coach at the helm.
 

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