voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Theres some rose colored glasses with Breida in here. Anyways we all have our opinions. He looks really small on the field to me.
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RB Jerick McKinnon, KC (2 Viewers)
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Does McKinnon look large by comparison?
There isn't any tint in my perspective. They are about the same size.
efactor
Footballguy
He’s currently listed at 195 which is 5 pounds above his combine weight. At 5’11”, his frame can support a few more pounds. Wouldn’t be surprised if he checks in this year around 200. Frank Gore style of running. Can find the seam and finishes off his runs well. Good power for a guy his size. Very happy with him as a back up to McKinnon. Assuming he beats out Williams, I can see 140-150 carries for him this year. Shanahan wants to run the ball more, which is why they drafted McGlinchey and sent Brown packing.
The OL that played the last half of the season in 2017 was pretty bad too, other than Staley. Beatles was starting at RT after Brown got hurt and he was horrible. Even assuming the typical rookie struggles, McGlinchey will be a huge upgrade, especially in the area of outside runs. Richburg replaces a below average Kilgore at center. If they can get even solid play at guard out of the group of Tomlinson, Cooper and Garnett, OL will be pretty good. Breida getting 4.4 behind last years line says a lot.
The OL that played the last half of the season in 2017 was pretty bad too, other than Staley. Beatles was starting at RT after Brown got hurt and he was horrible. Even assuming the typical rookie struggles, McGlinchey will be a huge upgrade, especially in the area of outside runs. Richburg replaces a below average Kilgore at center. If they can get even solid play at guard out of the group of Tomlinson, Cooper and Garnett, OL will be pretty good. Breida getting 4.4 behind last years line says a lot.
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Breida is a capable backup and he got more action as the year wore on. He is a similar athletic prospect to McKinnon (ridiculously high SPARQ scores), whom the coaching staff loves. Fair to say he is Kyle Shananhan's type...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have seen these numbers for Breida also but I don't think that is accurate.
Draftscout lists him at 5'9" 195 lbs in March of 2017. He had 6 months to add weight if the coaching staff wanted him to before the 2017 season started and now it has been over a year since these measurements.
Jerrick McKinnon 5'9" 209 at his combine in 2014
Not that I think it matters much. If the ideal size for a RB is 5'10" 220 lbs he is only one inch shorter than this and I think he has likely added weight over the past year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yup.
Devonta Freeman 5' 8" 206 in 2014. Pretty similar to McKinnon and Breida.
Joe Williams is a little bit taller than these 3 guys at 5' 10" 210 lbs in 2017
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
No they aren’t. The measurements say a 15 pound difference but all you have to do is look at the tape. Putting on 15 or20 pounds of muscle for an athlete that is already in great shape is extremely difficult and should really be looked at as impossible. So few backs have done it yet every year you hear about Ronnie Hillman looking bigger at training camp. Wishful thinking.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
He’s jacked but isn’t rb more about the lower half? I don’t think the answer is on the roster. Im picking up Joe Williams for nothing were I can in case the light bulb goes on for him but I see them drafting a back next year.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I thought I liked McKinnon before the fantasy season but apparently not as much as everybody else. You can have him at his price if you want him that bad. He's going routinely in the 2nd and above Freeman and Howard in some of the MFL10s I've done.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Chaka
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’ll tell you that when you tell me how many fantasy championships pass blocking has won you.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Arguing that pass block means anything in fantasy football is for clowns. But since we need to do this #### show again here you go: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-pass-blocking-running-backs
Chaka
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Ok, good. Pass blocking FBG bros and twitter drive me nuts. I think it’s reasonable to say his vision hasn’t been fully up to par at various points in his career but I believe there has been improvement.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I also tend to argue about McKinnon as partially a heavy volume opportunity. Breida, by my projections, seems like a great arbitrage opportunity as a Coleman-lite.
Chaka
Footballguy
I like McKinnon, he helped me last year, but IMO he's a short term play. Like you said he is likely to be a high volume guy. I am just concerned that he doesn't have true NFL caliber RB instincts. He's got all the athleticism in the world but I am not certain he truly knows how to run. Y'know, setting up blocks and all that. And I am not certain it is something that you learn, at least not easily.
Glad to draft him in 2018, don't think I want to make a dynasty play for him.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I will gladly admit to being wrong five months from now if he ends up being a top 10 RB in 2018, but his current ADP of 2.9 looks like complete and utter madness.
I don't understand how it can be considered complete and utter madness. Last year, after Cook went down in week 4, Mckinnon was used in a RBBC in Minnesota. His numbers from week 5-17 put him at RB10. We are assuming that he is going into a better system for RBs, and that he will get more of the work load (even if it's a 60/40 split). When he was getting a larger load while Murray was still working his way back from injury (week 5-9) he was actually the #3 RB in the league. Hyde, the guy the 49ers dumped to bring McKinnon in, was the #8 RB last year.
There's a lot to like about McKinnon this year, maybe not in the 2nd round but certainly not madness at that point.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Forget the rb. The system has produced top 10 backs consistently for the last 20 years, whether it’s mike shanahans broncos to kubiaks Texans to Washington to Atlanta to last year with hyde. I’ll take my chances for dynasty or redraft that he is at least a consistent rb2. I got him for 1.09 this year and feel it’s a pretty safe bet to get a few years of solid rb2 play with some room for upside. I don’t think they make an aggressive move in free agency and let hyde walk if they plan on using Breida or someone else so I’m not worried about workload. Would you McKinnon haters like it if it was Lewis that signed there as a fa? If hyde was back? Drafted a rookie? Why not McKinnon? He fits the scheme well and the scheme has posted fantastic numbers in the past.
Chaka
Footballguy
I do like the scheme, it's the reason I said I like him in 2018. Just like I said I love his athleticism. But we should all also remember that he couldn't beat out Latavius Murray last year.
And please stop with the "hater" nonsense. There is a lot of middle ground between "swooning fanboy" and "hater".
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I had to laugh because one of the main ESPN fantasy contributors, Stefania Bell, has Jerick McKinnon as a sleeper for this season.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Sure, wasn’t trying to exaggerate, just using it as a general term for “person who won’t draft McKinnon at their current adp which is ridiculous.” Last year Murray was the guy who got the contract in free agency but lost out to Cook who was simply a value pick last year for MIN.
I think he has some rb1 weeks, but will provide steady point totals week to week and finish somewhere as rb2, with an outside shot at finishing top 10.
ETA: If McKinnon goes down week 1, I’d think pretty much the same for whoever steps in as the starter. It’s not that I like McKinnon, I like any shanahan offense rb.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Did I say that? I honestly don't remember but it doesn't sound like me.
I think he has a shot to be a RB1 this year too. I also think there is nothing preventing the 49ers from drafting a RB "of the future" next year (ala Cook last year or Nick Chubb in Cleveland last year).
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
All fair points. I admittedly have not done a lot of digging on him yet; I was just stunned to see his ADP so high.mcd said:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
No, not a direct quote from you or anything, I’m just referencing who I am referring to as “haters” and further muddying the water with more hyperbole. Next years draft won’t be as stacked at rb as the last two, and I’m not going to try to predict what a team might draft in 2019 in July 2018. They could take 3 olinemen too, so maybe McKinnon is a bargain. Coleman was going to take Freeman’s job too.Chaka said:
Mark Football
Footballguy
McKinnon seems to be one of the most debated players this year. And not just for fantasy football, real football as well. Shanahan compares McKinnon to Devanta Freeman. If you had Freeman why would you draft a running back in the 2nd round if you were an NFL team(Vikings). Apparently Minnesota disagrees with Shanahan's assessment because they did spend high draft capital on a RB and let McKinnon go. Who made the mistake here Minnesota or SF? Cause one of them did.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
<<<McKinnon as his new version of Devonta Freeman. McKinnon should also be the heavy favorite for short-yardage and goal-line work over projected No. 2 back Matt Breida, who stands a diminutive 5-foot-9, 195.>>>
Hopefully this will put to bed the theory being thrown around here that McKinnon and Breida are basically the same size.
I was also reading an article by Cal Inman (Bay Area News Group) in which he talks about McKinnon:
<<Don’t be surprised if newcomer Jerick McKinnon has one of the most productive seasons ever from a 49ers running back. He’ll need a breather, however, and the question is whether that job falls strictly on second-year back Matt Breida or if Joe Williams can emerge>>>
Most of the beat writers all have really positive things to say.
Hopefully this will put to bed the theory being thrown around here that McKinnon and Breida are basically the same size.
I was also reading an article by Cal Inman (Bay Area News Group) in which he talks about McKinnon:
<<Don’t be surprised if newcomer Jerick McKinnon has one of the most productive seasons ever from a 49ers running back. He’ll need a breather, however, and the question is whether that job falls strictly on second-year back Matt Breida or if Joe Williams can emerge>>>
Most of the beat writers all have really positive things to say.
The 49ers' big free-agent running back signing is going 30th on average in drafts, which means late third, maybe early fourth round, depending on league size. I don't see too many guys behind him whom I'd rush to take ahead of him (though my hunch is Joe Mixon's opportunity in Cincinnati might be larger than McKinnon's in San Francisco), but I wouldn't move him up too far, based on the conversations I had while at 49ers camp.
Kyle Shanahan definitely has a role in mind for McKinnon, but I don't think it's "bell-cow running back." Before you point out that they gave him $7.5 million a year, you should know the Niners don't think that was an overspend. They believed the running back market was depressed (pre-Todd Gurley, at least) and that $7.5 million per year for a versatile running back who can catch the ball and run it was a better financial play than, say, spending the $9.6 million the Jaguars spent on receiver Donte Moncrief. McKinnon fits in a lot of ways, but Matt Breida should have a role in this offense too, and don't be surprised if there are weeks when Breida is the early-down guy and outscores McKinnon even in PPR leagues.
Kyle Shanahan definitely has a role in mind for McKinnon, but I don't think it's "bell-cow running back." Before you point out that they gave him $7.5 million a year, you should know the Niners don't think that was an overspend. They believed the running back market was depressed (pre-Todd Gurley, at least) and that $7.5 million per year for a versatile running back who can catch the ball and run it was a better financial play than, say, spending the $9.6 million the Jaguars spent on receiver Donte Moncrief. McKinnon fits in a lot of ways, but Matt Breida should have a role in this offense too, and don't be surprised if there are weeks when Breida is the early-down guy and outscores McKinnon even in PPR leagues.
Boston
Footballguy
I really don’t think many see McKinnon as a traditional bell cow...that is not his game and is not for too many backs in this day and age...I think realistically if he gets around 15 touches a game that will put him in a position to be a quality #2 RB...two years ago when Freeman had his big year he had 281 touches which averages out to 17.5 per game and that was sharing time with a good RB in Tevin Coleman who played 13 games that year...the x-factor for a RB like this will be the TDs which are hard to predict...I think he is a pretty safe bet for this year, it is in Dynasty where it is much more difficult to nail down his value...
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Not necessarily. Certain players fit certain schemes. Maybe he was a bad fit in MINN system and a good fit in SF system.
JPeso
Footballguy
Though I get the comparison of Freeman and McKinnon both as dual threats, Freeman is much better of a between the tackles runner in my opinion. Freeman had just 1000 on the ground that year, I see McKinnon more as a 700-800 yard guy with fewer than the 11 TDs Freeman had that year too.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't disagree which is why I see him as a #2...on the flipside Freeman also had Coleman with him and McKinnon does not have someone with that talent-level in the backfield with him (unless you feel Breida is that good...which I do not)...
JPeso
Footballguy
Same page. Frankly, I feel McKinnon is closer to Coleman in ability than he is Freeman.
Boston
Footballguy
He could be...and if Coleman had the opportunity McKinnon has this year I would put him right in the same area as far as value is concerned...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
Not a slight at all. But the trade value and start-up value is much different between the two backs
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Vikings used to use more power or man blocking back in 2015-2016 because the offense was built for Peterson.
Last season the Vikings ran a lot of outside zone and primarily zone blocking to compliment Dalvin Cook.
SF also runs outside zone and is a WCO same as MIN. So the scheme for McKinnon should be very similar to what the Vikings ran last season.
If there is a major change for McKinnon because of the coaching and scheme, it is because of some very nuanced specific things, because the basic foundation of the schemes will be very much the same.
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Yeah, reports say he stuck around after practice and signed autographs so it doesn't sound serious. But we've heard that before...
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