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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (2 Viewers)
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General Malaise
Footballguy
I think it's just time to conclude that Wisconsin RBs are just overrated busts waiting to happen...
Ron Dayne, Michael Bennett, Monte Ball and now Jonathan Taylor have flopped miserably and Melvin Gordon has fallen off a cliff this year.
Has there ever been a good RB from Wisconsin in the modern era?
Ron Dayne, Michael Bennett, Monte Ball and now Jonathan Taylor have flopped miserably and Melvin Gordon has fallen off a cliff this year.
Has there ever been a good RB from Wisconsin in the modern era?
I would argue that Melvin Gordon was good before this season. James White has had a pretty successful career in New England. Other than that I would call most of them busts.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oft injured, held out, got a DUI and now just sucks....other than that, I guess Gordon had some nice games?
James White, solid.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think there is some truth to this. For whatever reason Wisconsin seems to always have good run blocking offensive line and a plan to use their RBs extensively. I have been skeptical of many of the RB you mention because of that.
Melvin Gordon is the example of breaking that trend of disanointing careers of Wisconsin RB. He did have 3 top 12 fantasy seasons and that is above the average of two.
Futeki
Footballguy
From what I saw early, he was often picking the wrong hole, failing to recognize where the leverage was between the blocker and defender. The Wisconsin blocking wasn't dominant like it was in the past, but perhaps it was good enough that Taylor could pick the sub-optimal lane and still produce well enough given his athleticism.
Taylor has been running with uncertainty, which he didn't do in college.
This leads me to conclude that he is aware of his shortcoming and is actively trying to change and improve. He is reportedly smart and a hard worker. The problem is that when trying to improve/correct something in sports, it is practically a given the person will get worse before getting better. This is due to having to actively think instead of react. Taylor needs repetitions. The repetitions Taylor needs can't be had off of the field (like a QB's footwork, a basketball shot, or golf swing can be changed on one's own time). Due to the worse outcome, he is actually getting fewer of the repetitions that he desperately needs.
Perhaps it will click later this season, but I wouldn't count on it. I am reasonably confident, but by no means certain, that Taylor will make a dramatic improvement in year 2.
Taylor has been running with uncertainty, which he didn't do in college.
This leads me to conclude that he is aware of his shortcoming and is actively trying to change and improve. He is reportedly smart and a hard worker. The problem is that when trying to improve/correct something in sports, it is practically a given the person will get worse before getting better. This is due to having to actively think instead of react. Taylor needs repetitions. The repetitions Taylor needs can't be had off of the field (like a QB's footwork, a basketball shot, or golf swing can be changed on one's own time). Due to the worse outcome, he is actually getting fewer of the repetitions that he desperately needs.
Perhaps it will click later this season, but I wouldn't count on it. I am reasonably confident, but by no means certain, that Taylor will make a dramatic improvement in year 2.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am not some big Gordon apologist. but the reality is if your standard of "good RB" does not include Gordon then there are about 50 power 5 schools that have not had a good RB in the modern era.Oft injured, held out, got a DUI and now just sucks....other than that, I guess Gordon had some nice games?
James White, solid.
socrates
Footballguy
Meh. The same was said about Penn State RBs. What Ron Dayne or Michael Bennett did or did not do in the NFL has no connection to Jonathan Taylor. He will either succeed or fail based on his own talent and efforts. I do not believe JT was merely the product of a college system. The skills and ability are there. I trust my eyes. I trust the scouts. Many backs have run into a rookie wall. It happens. Taylor has shown flashes already, and I believe he will turn things back around. In dynasty, this is a buy-low window.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I came across another RB who didnt have a great rookie season who went on to have a great career.
Thurman Thomas was RB 30 and then like top 2 for a ton of years.
Not that I think Taylor is like Thomas, just saying it's happened before.
Thurman Thomas was RB 30 and then like top 2 for a ton of years.
Not that I think Taylor is like Thomas, just saying it's happened before.
Pipes
Footballguy
So weird to compare Dayne and Bennett who played 15-20 years and 3 head coaches before Taylor. Completely different eras what those 2 did have nothing to do with Taylor. And it's way too early to write off Taylor.
Agreed, this is basically what I've been saying in here for a while now. No, he hasn't been very good running the ball this year (he has been very good receiving, which is evidence that he is a hard worker and can improve as that wasn't seen as a strength of his). However, I don't think he has been as bad as many in here think (conflating on field with fantasy performance IMO), nor have their other RBs been as good as talked about, plus it's a pretty small sample size under less than ideal circumstances.
For whatever reason the coaches have decided to go with a "hot hand" approach every week, and that may very well be having a negative impact on his performance. Since he knows he has to flash in his first couple of touches otherwise his day could essentially be over, he's probably pressing even more to try and force things that just aren't there- it's hard to have patience when your coaching staff does not. He hasn't been given the chance to build any momentum or make adjustments in game, so much comes down to simply who is the RB in the game when the line actually does block well.
Look at this week- RoJo fumbles on their 2nd offensive play of the game deep in their own territory leading to a Carolina TD, his 2nd fumble in the last 3 games, and everyone thinks back to the bench he goes. Instead Arians puts him right back out there and he goes on to put up almost 200 yards on the day and Tampa blows them out. Drake fumbles on their first play of the 2nd half leading to a Buffalo TD 3 plays later, but they don't punish him either, instead gave him the carry on the first play of their next possession and he goes on to have a 100 yd. game in the victory. It's not as if they have scrubs behind them either, I'd argue that Fournette and Edmunds are better than Hines/Wilkins.
Part of a coaches job is to get the best out of their players by finding what works to motivate them. Reich/Rathman seem to be taking a "tough love/quick hook" approach, which doesn't appear to be working for Taylor or really any of the RBs. I'm still confident that Taylor is the most talented RB on the team and can improve on his deficiencies but remain skeptical that they will give him the opportunity to do so, at least this year. I'm hopeful that a relatively normal offseason will allow him to improve and show what he can do if given the chance. His issues are fixable IMO, but he needs reps in order to do so.
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socrates
Footballguy
I absolutely agree with your points.
Taylor did not have to rely as much on his vision in college. He was able to dominate with his superior athleticism. He confidently hit the holes fast and hard. In the NFL, running lanes are more narrow and close a lot faster, so running with vision and decisiveness is imperative. Taylor is running tentative right now, but I believe he will gain confidence as he adjusts to the speed of NFL defenses.
I have seen some comparing Taylor's struggles to those of Trent Richardson, but I think that is just lazy analysis. Richardson was a great gap scheme runner at Alabama: he could hit a gap and burst through it. However, he was not an effective zone runner, and that was exposed in the NFL. Moreover, he was never quite the same athletically after his meniscus injury. His biggest downfall, however, may have been an inability to adjust to NFL life once he left the insulated confines at Tuscaloosa.
Jonathan Taylor thrived in a complex zone scheme at Wisconsin. Sure, Taylor reaped the benefits of good blocking and play calling. One thing that jumps out on his college tape is how often he got into the secondary unmolested, but that was, in part, a result of Taylor understanding the blocking in front of him and hitting running lanes with great confidence. By all accounts, Taylor is highly intelligent and hard working, and I believe he will make the necessary adjustment to the NFL. Like Derrick Henry, Taylor is more of a body puncher than a knockout artist. The Colts need to get him enough volume to allow him to find his groove and wear down a defense. I am confident it is merely a matter of when, not if, Taylor finds his groove and becomes a dominant NFL RB. In fact, just this week, I acquired Taylor in dynasty (for James Robinson). This is a rare dynasty buy-low window on a very talented rookie runner. Seize it! Giddy up!
General Malaise
Footballguy
He's had ONE >1,000 yard season and averages 4.0 YPC. I'm failing to see excellence here.
Pipes
Footballguy
We get it you hate Wisconsin. Not sure why we're discussing Gordon in the JT thread but Gordon had 3 solid seasons with the Chargers. RB1 type seasons from a fantasy perspective. Not excellent but very good seasons, splitting hairs maybe? Maybe he can be considered a bust but he did have microfracture knee surgery which like has had a greater impact on his NFL career than that fact he went to Wisconsin. Yeah Dayne and Bennett sucked no one can argue that.
socrates
Footballguy
There are countless examples. Taylor is on pace for 760 yards rushing and 7 TDs. Here is a list of players who all totaled less than 700 yards rushing their rookie seasons and went on to have some success (and this is after a mere cursory search of names that popped into my head):
Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Chris Carson, Arian Foster, Jamal Anderson, Tim Biakabutuka, Darren McFadden, Larry Johnson, Mark Ingram, Tiki Barber, Ahman Green, Ryan Mathews, Chris Warren, Raheem Mostert, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Duce Staley, Terry Allen, Charlie Garner, Shaun Alexander . . .
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Taylor has potential for next season but in redraft, he has little value since the Indy backfield is a three-headed mess currently. How could you feel comfortable starting him? Production is unlikely due to the lack of touches.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Rice is a decent example.
But McCoy and Bell had good stats.
Tomlinson had 1600 yards, 59 receptions, and 10 TDs his rookie year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
McCoy and Bell has ok stats but looked bad. Tomlinson has everyone talking about his poor ypc.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
LT2 had discussion about his ypc but most people were willing to look past it due to the volume, similar to Trent Richardson. His value went up after his rookie year, not down like Taylor's.
I agree on Bell and Shady. More Shady than Bell but in both cases their value fell somewhat and people were generally down on them. I think people are a lot more down on JT than they were on Bell, but Shady was similar.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Giving up too soon on rookies is the hallmark of a poorly managed dynasty team.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
That said, I'm buying low on Taylor, and definitely not buying at his pre draft price.
Gandalf
Footballguy
That’s the point though. This is the time to get him cheap. Owners have to be worried about him being outplayed by Hines. I think that’s temporary but Taylor has some issues he needs to fix including fumbling and his vision.
rockaction
Footballguy
Somebody is stealing my schtick unattributed when it comes to CEH. I'm the first one to call him a fire hydrant, gol darn it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The “Brian Westbrook” gave it away. I can’t remember the guy’s old handle but that was his favorite way to mock CEH after the games he didn’t produce. He continues to be a child after getting banned I see.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I don't think you can teach a running back vision any more than you can teach a wide receiver hands.
Pipes
Footballguy
No you can't but Taylor had excellent vision in college. Maybe he's struggling with adjusting to the speed of the NFL game, maybe it's a confidence thing but to me this is more of a case of a guy with the yips as opposed to someone who never had it in the 1st place.
socrates
Footballguy
I would mostly disagree (on both counts). RB vision is mostly about understanding blocking schemes and defensive alignments and tendencies and being able to make split-second decisions. Some of that, especially the split-second decision making, I would agree is instinctual, and cannot be taught, but by and large, those skills are developed and honed through film study and on-field repetition. To your point, there are certainly players who never grasp the nuances of that, and thus never develop the "vision" necessary to be a successful NFL RB. Most of Taylor's deficiency, however, is a lack of confidence and running tentatively, imo. Taylor ran in a complex running scheme at Wisconsin, and he displayed excellent vision. I believe once the game slows down for him, something that most NFL rookies talk about, he will re-gain his confidence and return to running with the decisiveness and suddenness that is currently lacking in his game. Taylor is a highly intelligent player, and he is over thinking things right now. He needs to get back to running naturally, and that is only going to come with more playing time and finding some on-field success that he can build on. I am confident it is coming, but it is going to require some patience.
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Futeki
Footballguy
Agreed. I don't think he lacks vision. His shows perfectly fine spatial awareness. I would say he was previously unaware of some key indicators to consider. He is aware now and needs repetitions to make it natural.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
I think Reich wants Taylor to be the guy. Its just he's been ineffective a lot, and then other guys get more involved.So now do JT owners like myself roll him out next week if we benched him this week.
So frustrating to figure out what Reich is doing week-to-week with the RBs.
I think Taylor is a volatile RB2 going forward, but if he gets hot, he could hit low-end RB1 status with Indy's cake schedule. I don't know how confident I'd be starting him next week against the Titans. I'm guessing I'd rank him around RB20, but 2 of the next 4 are against the Texans league worst run D, I'd feel fine starting him then.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
At least it’s not Belichick. I just avoid RBs from NE b/c of him.So now do JT owners like myself roll him out next week if we benched him this week
So frustrating to figure out what Reich is doing week-to-week with the RBs.
What are your options for next week?
What leads you to believe this? He didn't even start yesterday and was the 3rd RB to get a carry. Luckily for Taylor owners Hines lost 2 yards on his first two carries which pretty much eliminated him from having the "hot hand" in Reich's mind, so dumb.
Assuming Carson is ready to go I will start D. Henry & Carson. I could use Taylor in the flex
Taylor has lead the team in carries in 70% of their games. The only 3 he didn't were the Lions game(where Taylor was very ineffective) the Ravens game(where Taylor lost a soft fumble, that was returned for a TD) and the Titans game(where Hines was on fire) I realize those along with GB are the most recent games, but I don't think this backfield has really changed since Mack went down. Its Taylor, then Hines, then Wilkins, unless somebody either sucks, or is on fire. Most weeks they won't separate enough to change that.
I think Taylor is a volatile RB2, Hines is a flex, with upside in bad game script(which isn't often) and Wilkins is a bench flier.
Lol- yeah those were the last 3 games before yesterday, and again, this week was the first time (I believe) that he wasn't the starter. Terrible trend if that's who you want to be your leading RB.
IMO there is very little evidence that he wants Taylor to be "the guy", if he did he would get more than a few carries before rotating in the other RBs plus he's been pretty open about their "hot hand" approach. The difference this week was that Hines started off cold and Taylor did not so he got more carries. I'm guessing it's enough for Taylor to be the starter again next week, but don't see any reason why he would give him a longer leash than he has been given lately. Nearly impossible to predict who is going to lead the team in touches each week, mostly comes down to who gets better blocking early on. It's absurd IMO, but it is what it is.
Jonathan Taylor's three games after Indianapolis' Week 7 bye:
Running back rush shares: 30.6%, 31.6%, 25.9% Target shares: 8.8%, 5.0%, 5.6%
Jonathan Taylor today: Running back rush share: 68.8% Target share: 11.8%
https://mobile.twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/1330689082268266496
Running back rush shares: 30.6%, 31.6%, 25.9% Target shares: 8.8%, 5.0%, 5.6%
Jonathan Taylor today: Running back rush share: 68.8% Target share: 11.8%
https://mobile.twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/1330689082268266496
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Taylor with a good game against the Packers. 22 carries 90 yards 4 targets 4 receptions 24 yards.
As zeeshan2 is pointing out no other RB came close to this amount of opportunity.
If this is how things are going to be moving forward then some one give me a hand up on the wagon. I've been hanging upside down off the side wondering if I will go under the wheels.
The coaches are so smart though it will likely be a WIlkins game next week.
As zeeshan2 is pointing out no other RB came close to this amount of opportunity.
If this is how things are going to be moving forward then some one give me a hand up on the wagon. I've been hanging upside down off the side wondering if I will go under the wheels.
The coaches are so smart though it will likely be a WIlkins game next week.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It will be this way until we get the stones to start him and then Wilkins will get 30 carries.
Probably in the fantasy playoffs.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah if this would have happened 4 weeks ago and they stuck with Taylor it would be different. I had pretty much decided to wait until next year with him after what has happened.FreeBaGeL said:
Then he has a decent performance in a close scoring game to try to reel me back into starting him.
He's not set it and forget it by any means, but man with Titans, Texans, Raiders, Texans the next 4 games, its possible he's a bit of playoff star before that week 16 against the Steelers.
